Rumor: Avs Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents 18-19 part XXI|Lead Up To The Rumors to Nowheresville

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Continue here folks.

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[Meeqs]

At this point we'd need a second line and a goalie, so yeah it's too late to salvage the season unless Francouz can galvanize the team...then getting a Hayes / Stone or some option with term, could make sense.

But I'm just saying: making the playoffs in back to back seasons for the first time since Sakic retired >>> our pick ending up 10th instead of 16th

I think I agree with most things but I will disagree with the last part. Draft picks drop exponentially pretty quickly and that 6 pick difference is insane. Each draft has a drop off break points, like what we have seen multiple times in the past with the Avs getting Rantanen and Fla getting Crouse, or MTL getting Sergachev and the Avs getting Jost. When you are talking that high up every spot matters greatly.

This year was never about playoffs, it was about development and evaluation as so much of the teams future is tied up in picks and prospects.

Making the playoffs is great, and getting a high pick is great, but in the long term getting a higher level of player with that pick is likely more valuable than playoff experience for a roster that is due to see a good deal of turnover.

 

[Meeqs]

(Dont remember how to quote)

And I'd say you're being overly optimistic. And we're both just guessing so it doesn't really matter.

I'm viewing the pick in the context in which we would have it. Which is at the end of a hugely long dry spell outside of the top 15. That's with this organization's scouting, which is all that matters.

The fact is, it literally has been that long since any of our picks outside of gimme's amounted to anything. So until they prove otherwise, I'm not going to value a pick in that range super highly for our organization.

It isn't a nothing asset, but it isn't enough for me to bite on that trade proposal. And realistically, neither team does that trade in real life so I'm not going to sweat over the details.
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I mean we know what the average success rates of selections by round are, so I think that is how you should be viewing draft picks. Anything under Pracey (satan) should be discarded as well as that man was an undercover rogue agent for the Redwings here to sabotage the Avs.

Agree'd on your last point though.​

 

[UncleRisto]

This year was never about playoffs,

When you make the playoffs the previous year, the season is always about the playoffs.

 

[cgf]

I think I agree with most things but I will disagree with the last part. Draft picks drop exponentially pretty quickly and that 6 pick difference is insane. Each draft has a drop off break points, like what we have seen multiple times in the past with the Avs getting Rantanen and Fla getting Crouse, or MTL getting Sergachev and the Avs getting Jost. When you are talking that high up every spot matters greatly.

This year was never about playoffs, it was about development and evaluation as so much of the teams future is tied up in picks and prospects.

Making the playoffs is great, and getting a high pick is great, but in the long term getting a higher level of player with that pick is likely more valuable than playoff experience for a roster that is due to see a good deal of turnover.

But neither the 16th pick nor 10th pick is becoming a game changing 2C by their draft+1 or draft+2 unless they're a crazy exception. So it isn't relevant to solving our more pressing issues...

Spoiler

And this year should've absolutely been about the playoffs and ensuring that we didn't stagnate, but could actually build on last season. Thereby proving both to themselves & the league that last season wasn't a fluke. If it wasn't and this really was just another D&E year, then that's another error by management

When you make the playoffs the previous year, the season is always about the playoffs.

Right? I at least give Sakic enough credit to realize this much. Even if I still call him...trigger-shy, when I'm being nice...

 

[Barklez]

(Dont remember how to quote)

And I'd say you're being overly optimistic. And we're both just guessing so it doesn't really matter.

I'm viewing the pick in the context in which we would have it. Which is at the end of a hugely long dry spell outside of the top 15. That's with this organization's scouting, which is all that matters.

The fact is, it literally has been that long since any of our picks outside of gimme's amounted to anything. So until they prove otherwise, I'm not going to value a pick in that range super highly for our organization.

It isn't a nothing asset, but it isn't enough for me to bite on that trade proposal. And realistically, neither team does that trade in real life so I'm not going to sweat over the details.
_________________________________________________________________________________________


I mean we know what the average success rates of selections by round are, so I think that is how you should be viewing draft picks. Anything under Pracey (satan) should be discarded as well as that man was an undercover rogue agent for the Redwings here to sabotage the Avs.

Agree'd on your last point though.​

We're agreeing, so I'll quit, but here's the numbers you're referring to:

For a pick in the 31-35 range
29.2% go on to play 100+ games in the NHL

Of those
10.8% become a Top6/Top4D/1G
85% top out as a 4th liner or less

So forgive me for not getting too worried about passing up on that.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Stone won’t be the difference between us winning a round this year. But if we’re lucky enough to get Kakko/Hughes he can be that elite vet to ease those guys into the league and drive a line. Give them that insulation that Jost never got. Plus he adds size and talent to a team that is seriously lacking it. As has been said before he’s a perfect fit.

 

[henchman21]

Late 1sts are way, way overrated on HF... let alone 2nds. The pure odds of getting a good player are low, let alone with the Avs' scouting staff. That isn't saying to give them up like candy, but people shouldn't pretend that the Avs' best use of the pick is always making it.

 

[lonelybadger]

I heard one of the stats guys on tsn radio on the weekend talking about draft picks hitting the 100 games played threshold at 1 in 5 rate.

If I’m sakic I offer the avs 1st + for stone with the condition being If the avs pick ends up lower than the Sens the sens get their 1st back.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I heard one of the stats guys on tsn radio on the weekend talking about draft picks hitting the 100 games played threshold at 1 in 5 rate.

If I’m sakic I offer the avs 1st + for stone with the condition being If the avs pick ends up lower than the Sens the sens get their 1st back.

I’d do our pick with top 2 protection and Kerfoot.

 

[Muffin]

We riot if we don't get a Hughes-Duchene-Stone 2nd line next year.

 

[cgf]

We riot if we don't get a Hughes-Duchene-Stone 2nd line next year.

We only settle for drafting Kakko, signing Panarin & EK, and trading EJ for Kadri!

 

[AvsFan29]

@Meeqs I meant a sign and trade deal. He would sign with Ottawa on the condition that he would be dealt to Colorado. It happens sometimes.

I still think keeping the pick is the way to go. We might have to just suck it up and watch another 25 shit games, so we can keep our assets.

 

[Avs_19]

I would've liked a Stone trade in the summer or earlier this season but I think it's too late now. Too risky with how the Avs have played and how little time there's left in this season and before free agency. If they really want him bad enough then prove it by outbidding everyone in July with that Kroenke money.

 

[Iceberg]

There are 7 games to be played before the trade deadline and it is a difficult schedule, so unless this team goes on an amazing hot streak, Sakic won't be buying rentals.

 

[henchman21]

I would've liked a Stone trade in the summer or earlier this season but I think it's too late now. Too risky with how the Avs have played and how little time there's left in this season and before free agency. If they really want him bad enough then prove it by outbidding everyone in July with that Kroenke money.

This is how I feel with most moves... the time was earlier and it passed. Right now you have to let it ride, make a move that has ties to the next 2-4 season, or be cheap.

 

[Iceberg]

When you make the playoffs the previous year, the season is always about the playoffs.

Not always... and it should be pretty clear by now.

 

[EquabaleAce]

I don’t get how Zadorov’s ice time keeps trending down, even with Cole’s injury. If rumours (Elliot Friedman) are true about him being available, why on earth would he be playing the equivalent of a 3rd/4th liner ice time. Nothing like driving down perceived value.

 

[hockeyfish]

I would've liked a Stone trade in the summer or earlier this season but I think it's too late now. Too risky with how the Avs have played and how little time there's left in this season and before free agency. If they really want him bad enough then prove it by outbidding everyone in July with that Kroenke money.

We're still not sure Stone is available yet, let alone early in the season or the summer. It takes two to make a trade.

 

[Meeqs]

When you make the playoffs the previous year, the season is always about the playoffs.

When you trade a top 6 center for futures, your goal is to be competitive when those futures arrive

 

[Meeqs]

But neither the 16th pick nor 10th pick is becoming a game changing 2C by their draft+1 or draft+2 unless they're a crazy exception. So it isn't relevant to solving our more pressing issues...

Spoiler

And this year should've absolutely been about the playoffs and ensuring that we didn't stagnate, but could actually build on last season. Thereby proving both to themselves & the league that last season wasn't a fluke. If it wasn't and this really was just another D&E year, then that's another error by management


Right? I at least give Sakic enough credit to realize this much. Even if I still call him...trigger-shy, when I'm being nice...

Either Turcotte or Krebs will likely be there at 10, and while I'm not as much of a fan so will Zegras. All of those guys are looking to be possible game changing C's that will be ready in D+1 or D+2. At pick 16 I think less so.

The biggest issue is there really isn't really a way to quantify what experience brings, nor how to correlate its effect on future success.

This season was all about seeing how much of last year they over achieved and where guys are at so they could properly evaluate what steps to take next instead of repeating the last time they went all in on the team too early.

Being patient is the correct move by management. They're aware when you have 5 1st rounders that will likely be joining the team in the following year it doesn't make sense to start forming a roster until you see what you have with them as you have very different needs based on how they perform.

The day Roy left, this became a long term plan and it will remain a long term plan, the outcome of a single year currently isn't that relevant.

 

[Meeqs]

We're agreeing, so I'll quit, but here's the numbers you're referring to:

For a pick in the 31-35 range
29.2% go on to play 100+ games in the NHL

Of those
10.8% become a Top6/Top4D/1G
85% top out as a 4th liner or less

So forgive me for not getting too worried about passing up on that.

That's actually awesome, thanks for grabbing the actual numbers.

 

[Meeqs]

Stone won’t be the difference between us winning a round this year. But if we’re lucky enough to get Kakko/Hughes he can be that elite vet to ease those guys into the league and drive a line. Give them that insulation that Jost never got. Plus he adds size and talent to a team that is seriously lacking it. As has been said before he’s a perfect fit.

I view Stone as the opportunity to add an elite player to this team throughout the rest of his prime and one of the few players likely to live up to his contract. The only exception is should the Avs end up with KK, then on top of Mikko and Kaut I think you no longer pursue Stone as your RW depth is already superb and the Cap will at that point need to be saved for post ELC periods of those players and elsewhere for the roster.

Hope they draft a C though and would love to get stone.

 

[Meeqs]

@Meeqs I meant a sign and trade deal. He would sign with Ottawa on the condition that he would be dealt to Colorado. It happens sometimes.

I still think keeping the pick is the way to go. We might have to just suck it up and watch another 25 **** games, so we can keep our assets.

Sure but the only way it makes sense for Stone to do this is if he was okay coming to Col anyways and he was getting a deal that he would accept in UFA. There is no reason for him to forego what is looking to be one of the most player friendly UFAs in years as a top target. Also if you're the Avs and you know he's willing to sign with you then why are you giving up assets for that?

 

[Meeqs]

There are 7 games to be played before the trade deadline and it is a difficult schedule, so unless this team goes on an amazing hot streak, Sakic won't be buying rentals.

Yeah the upcoming schedule is brutal and with how weirdly compact the West is right now the Avs can get a super high pick while not actually being that bad. At this point I'm kinda rooting for the top 10 pick haha. With the 2 picks the Avs could be pushing 1/3 lotto odds.