GDT: Avs @ Devils, 7:00 PM, MSG +

[Devs3cups]

You too? Come on. I watched the AVS feed and they commented how sloppy and listless they were.

Daws played a fine game and I always defend goaltending...but that wasn't the reason we won tonight.

Given Gillies’ goals allowed above expected if he’s in net we probably lose 5 or 6 to 4 and we’re being told on here that the team is garbage. That’s the point.

Daws is giving us average or slightly above average goaltending and that’s what we need. No one is saying Daws is the reason we won but he played well enough for us to win, something we haven’t had often from goalies this season.

 

[Hisch13r]

Given Gillies’ goals allowed above expected if he’s in net we probably lose 5 or 6 to 4 and we’re being told on here that the team is garbage. That’s the point.

Daws is giving us average or slightly above average goaltending and that’s what we need. No one is saying Daws is the reason we won but he played well enough for us to win, something we haven’t had often from goalies.

It hasn’t even been average or above average. It’s been average or below average

 

[Devs3cups]

It hasn’t even been average or above average. It’s been average or below average

Even furthers our point then lol

 

[Blender]

Here's where our goalies rank this season among all goalies with 200+ minutes (75 goalies)

Schmid - 75th in GSAA/60, 72nd in HDSV%
Gilles - 70th in GSAA/60, 48th in HDSV%
Blackwood - 69th in GSAA/60, 71st in HDSV%
Wedgewood - 52nd in GSAA/60, 52nd in HDSV%
Bernier - 22nd in GSAA/60, 69th in HDSV%
Daws - 26th in GSAA/60, 37th in HDSV%

This is embarrassing, below NHL level goaltending.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Nobody's saying they're THE REASON we won any more than they were never the only reason they lost. But you're underselling just how much of a difference average goaltending can be compared to dumpster fire goaltending.

No. Dawes has been great,

You're saying I shouldn't challenge when a Math works guy extrapolates out that we are really a 103 pt team with Dawes? Ignoring just about every relevant factor in the world to provide some 'fact'? Gtfo man, that's just silly talk.

 

[Blender]

No. Dawes has been great,

You're saying I shouldn't challenge when a Math works guy extrapolates out that we are really a 103 pt team with Dawes? Ignoring just about every relevant factor in the world to provide some 'fact'? Gtfo man, that's just silly talk.

Daws has not been great, he's been average. I know average looks like great in comparison to the dumpster fires we've had playing most of the season, but he hasn't been great even.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Given Gillies’ goals allowed above expected if he’s in net we probably lose 5 or 6 to 4 and we’re being told on here that the team is garbage. That’s the point.

Daws is giving us average or slightly above average goaltending and that’s what we need. No one is saying Daws is the reason we won but he played well enough for us to win, something we haven’t had often from goalies this season.

No, we need efforts like tonight where Hughes looks like a top3 center and not a turnover machine, where Severson labels top corner instead of being a liability, where Bastian is a net front presence instead of a Kraken, where Graves and Hamilton are in the lineup, where Smith isn't a disaster.

Alot of things went right tonight. Be frigging happy. But don't tell me, oh yes, they've been perfect all along and we should be first in the Metro now...

Much has changed. Mark the progress and stop thinking it's just goaltending.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Here's where our goalies rank this season among all goalies with 200+ minutes (75 goalies)

Schmid - 75th in GSAA/60, 72nd in HDSV%
Gilles - 70th in GSAA/60, 48th in HDSV%
Blackwood - 69th in GSAA/60, 71st in HDSV%
Wedgewood - 52nd in GSAA/60, 52nd in HDSV%
Bernier - 22nd in GSAA/60, 69th in HDSV%
Daws - 26th in GSAA/60, 37th in HDSV%

This is embarrassing, below NHL level goaltending.

Bc team has sucketh. Your stats don't show quality of shots, but ok.

 

[Devs3cups]

No, we need efforts like tonight where Hughes looks like a top3 center and not a turnover machine, where Severson labels top corner instead of being a liability, where Bastian is a net front presence instead of a Kraken, where Graves and Hamilton are in the lineup, where Smith isn't a disaster.

Alot of things went right tonight. Be frigging happy. But don't tell me, oh yes, they've been perfect all along and we should be first in the Metro now...

I mean, I’ve never said that. This team with average goaltending is maybe not a playoff team, but they’re at least a bubble team imo. I don’t dismiss the other problems we have, because we do have other problems. But with good or even average goaltending, we’re most likely a bubble team. In brief, this team is better than its record shows, in my humble opinion. And being a bubble team this year would’ve been a success.

 

[Hisch13r]

Daws has not been great, he's been average. I know average looks like great in comparison to the dumpster fires we've had playing most of the season, but he hasn't been great even.

In our past 15 games Schmid has played in 2 where he allowed 6 on 3.14 xGA, Gilles has played in 7 where he's allowed 28 on 18.49. Daws has played in 8 and allowed 19 on 19.08. This is what horrifically bad worst goaltending in the league vs average goaltending looks like.

 

[Devs3cups]

Bc team has sucketh. Your stats don't show quality of shots, but ok.

Most of our goalies are like in the -30 in goals allowed above expected. This takes into account quality of shots and supports the argument that the goaltending has been atrocious.

edit:

 

[Blender]

Bc team has sucketh. Your stats don't show quality of shots, but ok.

That is literally what those stats are accounting for.

GSAA - Goals Saved Above Average, the difference between the goalie's Goals Against and a Goals Against with the same Shots Against and the average SV% (within the selected filters).
HDSV% - Percentage of HD Shots Against that were Saves.
High Danger Scoring Chances - a scoring chance with a score of 3 or higher.

Natural Stat Trick - Glossary

 

[billingtons ghost]

I mean, I’ve never said that. This team with average goaltending is maybe not a playoff team, but they’re at least a bubble team imo. I don’t dismiss the other problems we have, because we do have other problems. But with good or even average goaltending, we’re most likely a bubble team. In brief, this team is better than its record shows, in my humble opinion. And being a bubble team this year would’ve been a success.

Of course it is. If we had average goaltending we'd be a few points out. If we had good tending maybe a bubble team, and excellent goaltending a bubble team for sure.

That doesn't change the fact that we have played terrible hockey in many many periods this season, and occasionally really good hockey with our full lineup.

This was a team win and everyone did their part.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Our goaltending is suddenly looking a bit better...right at the same time that the team seems to have figured out how to turnover the puck less in their own slot and at their own blue line. At the same time that Hughes is not giving the puck away as much as he was previously while still putting up a ton of points. At the same time that Mercer and Shara have started producing consistently again. At the same time that those same young players seem to suddenly be making nice defensive plays that we didn't really see from them previously. Must just be more coincidences!

Daws workload in this game was minimal. Two of the goals he gave up were pretty weak. He's not looking all that much better than before, and only marginally better than the other goalies we've trotted out this season. The team in front of him is looking a lot better for the last couple of weeks. It's almost like it's finally clicked with these guys that they need to play at least a bit more responsibly when the goalies behind them are shit.

 

[Hisch13r]

That is literally what those stats are accounting for.

Natural Stat Trick - Glossary

Yes but have you considered that the Devils are somehow uniquely bad and far worse defensively than everyone else and those numbers don't adequately portray us?

 

[NjDevsRR]

Amazing how many people still don’t understand the Expected Save stat literally takes into account the quality of shots. Seems like this stat would be gospel to them if they stop yelling, calm down and actually look at what that stat takes into account.

 

[Devs3cups]

Of course it is. If we had average goaltending we'd be a few points out. If we had good tending maybe a bubble team, and excellent goaltending a bubble team for sure.

That doesn't change the fact that we have played terrible hockey in many many periods this season, and occasionally really good hockey with our full lineup.

This was a team win and everyone did their part.

Ok, then, how do you explain the horrible Goals Saved Above Expected from our goalies, that does take into account quality of shots?



Edit: Individual goalies for this have been posted a little higher. Gillies, Mac and Schmid are in the bottom of the league.

 

[billingtons ghost]

That is literally what those stats are accounting for.

Natural Stat Trick - Glossary

No, they aren't. They account for distance from net. They account for some things to give the illusion that there is some value to them bc it's the best we can do right now without pucktracking and some sort of experts opinion or measurement of shit difficulty against an average goaltender

You can wave them in people's faces all you like, but they are pretty much garbage, tracking perhaps how bad your defense is in limiting opponents shots to the outside

Please don't call them what they aren't.

Pretty colors tho. That wins you points if not any sort of credibility.

 

[Hisch13r]

Where's Jim? We could really use another nonsensical argument that everyone agrees on besides a couple contrarians

 

[Devs3cups]

No, they aren't. They account for distance from net. They account for some things to give the illusion that there is some value to them bc it's the best we can do right now without pucktracking and some sort of experts opinion or measurement of shit difficulty against an average goaltender

You can wave them in people's faces all you like, but they are pretty much garbage, tracking perhaps how bad your defense is in limiting opponents shots to the outside

Please don't call them what they aren't.

I’d honestly like to learn more on if/why these specific stats can’t be relied upon. Do you have sources or articles that discuss them?

 

[NJDevs26]

No. Dawes has been great,

You're saying I shouldn't challenge when a Math works guy extrapolates out that we are really a 103 pt team with Dawes? Ignoring just about every relevant factor in the world to provide some 'fact'? Gtfo man, that's just silly talk.

There's a slight difference between 'on pace' (which is what was said) and actually being that.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Where's Jim? We could really use another nonsensical argument that everyone agrees on besides a couple contrarians

Let's stick to "we are a 103 point team" assertions. That's pretty sane

 

[Tao Jersey Jones]

Shitting on Schmid's four games and two periods sample size is pretty telling.

 

[Hisch13r]

Let's stick to "we are a 103 point team" assertions. That's pretty sane

I mean I never said that but sure go off.

 

[guitarguyvic]

As far as the Avs...When they went up 3-0, I remember thinking to myself this is one of the most undeserved 3-0 leads I've ever seen. Two of their goals were flukey and weak from Daws. They clearly played an extremely lackluster game, which I suspect was a combination of them playing the night before and just going through the motions while in the middle of a road trip against a team with a poor record.

That's not to take anything from the Devils...because they played great in all facets and even if the Avs were at the level we'd expect this would have still been a competitive game. And we've seen so many times over the last several years examples of good teams coming in and still kicking our ass despite putting in a half-assed effort like the Avs did today. So this win is very much a good sign.

TLDR; the Avs thought they could sleepwalk their way through this game and still beat the Devils, but they were wrong. So f*** 'em, we deserved this W.