GDT: Avs @ Devils, 7:00 PM, MSG +

[HenriquesJawLine]

Kids are thriving and our resident cranky pants is no where to be found. Prob in tbe woods writing a thesis on how Hughes is the worst first overall ever

He has serious issues

 

[Triumph]

I can't believe everyone wasted their time posting charts and graphs at the person who thinks goalies don't have any impact on the game, it's all just defense.

Just thinking idly back to Blackwood's last game where the Devils dominate, don't score enough, then Blackwood lets in two clunkers and the team folds up the tent.

 

[Call Me Al]

what’s crazy is that a lot of times that kind of is the case, but our goalies have been so extraordinarily bad this year that you have to be goalie-blind not to realize it

 

[NjDevsRR]

Look at the Rangers. They are a bottom third team when ShesTwerkin isn’t playing. Last night was a prime example against Minny.

 

[Triumph]

what’s crazy is that a lot of times that kind of is the case, but our goalies have been so extraordinarily bad this year that you have to be goalie-blind not to realize it

The big thing is that you really can't point to games where the goalie stole the game. There's maybe 3 or 4 games where the Devils came out with a W because of the goalie and basically only the goalie. That's not how it should be.

 

[HBK27]

 

[Hisch13r]

Look at the Rangers. They are a bottom third team when ShesTwerkin isn’t playing. Last night was a prime example against Minny.

0-8-1 against playoff teams without him and 12-6-1 with him

 

[Unknown Caller]

Look at the Rangers. They are a bottom third team when ShesTwerkin isn’t playing. Last night was a prime example against Minny.

Unfortunately, goaltending matters and is a part of hockey. Frustrating because it's essentially unpredictable and a dice roll, but it's a pretty significant factor in team success. The Rangers will have Shesterkin regardless of how poor their on-ice play is and the Devils have the worst goaltending in the league regardless of how good their on-ice play is.

 

[Saugus]

0-8-1 against playoff teams without him and 12-6-1 with him

That's an absurd difference. Like night and day.

 

[Dialamo]

What a pleasant surprise to see we ended up winning this game! I was exhausted and went to sleep early after it was 3-0 Avs.

The future is bright!

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Mind blown.

I was out, saw the score was 0-3 and forgot about it.

Just checked and I’m like what happened!?!?!?! Did they get dominated and then flipped the script?

 

[Goptor]

Mind blown.

I was out, saw the score was 0-3 and forgot about it.

Just checked and I’m like what happened!?!?!?! Did they get dominated and then flipped the script?

The Devils dominated them all game - Colorado just has a good powerplay.

 

[glenwo2]

Edited because no one appreciates Chopped Liver.

 

[My3Sons]

Right, and if we didn't beat them tonight they would go undefeated for the rest of time? It was pretty clear that after going up 3-0 when we took our penalties, they were a different team and we victimized their third pair defensemen.

To be fair, the Avs defense is not great in its own zone. Makar is transcendent with the puck, and fast at all times, but nothing special when actually defending against bigger stronger players if he can't just steal the puck from them Hughes style. Toews is very good but he's one guy. Murray, Johnson, and Johnson are competent but nothing great to my eyes, and I don't know if Girard could stop me with skates on my walker with one hand on my stick and the other holding up my depends.

 

[billingtons ghost]

To be fair, the Avs defense is not great in its own zone. Makar is transcendent with the puck, and fast at all times, but nothing special when actually defending against bigger stronger players if he can't just steal the puck from them Hughes style. Toews is very good but he's one guy. Murray, Johnson, and Johnson are competent but nothing great to my eyes, and I don't know if Girard could stop me with skates on my walker with one hand on my stick and the other holding up my depends.

I thought the same thing while watching the game. Jack Johnson is in the league? Paired with Murray on the best team in the league? How?

 

[Hisch13r]

To be fair, the Avs defense is not great in its own zone. Makar is transcendent with the puck, and fast at all times, but nothing special when actually defending against bigger stronger players if he can't just steal the puck from them Hughes style. Toews is very good but he's one guy. Murray, Johnson, and Johnson are competent but nothing great to my eyes, and I don't know if Girard could stop me with skates on my walker with one hand on my stick and the other holding up my depends.

lol You're giving JJ was too much credit calling him competent

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

The Devils dominated them all game - Colorado just has a good powerplay.

Thanks! Good to hear

 

[billingtons ghost]

Thanks for the info!

For your information, most analytics in regards to GSAx are posted from JFresh, which takes its data from TopDownHockey.

Here are the explanations in regards to his GSAx model and the variables it takes into account, etc.: A New Expected Goal Model That is Better Than Corsi at Predicting Future Goals

EDIT: Twitter thread from the creator explaining a little also:

Ok, so read all of his articles and it comes down to this: (cut and pasted, quoted directly from his document)

• Shot distance and shot angle. (The two most important variables.)
• Shot type.
• The type of event which occurred most recently, the location and distance of this event, how recently it occurred, which team the perpetrator was, and the speed at which distance changed since this event. (The inclusion of the last variable was inspired by Peter Tanner of Moneypuck.)
• Whether the shooting team is at home.
• Contextual variables such as the score, period, and seconds played in the game at the time the shot was taken.
• Whether the shooter is shooting on their off-wing. (For example, a right-handed shooter shooting the puck from the left circle is shooting from the off-wing, and a left-handed shooter shooting from the same location is not.)

_______

He then fudges the numbers a bit using some predictive AI based upon if he's had enough similar data points in the past.

So it's glorified HD where angle and distance are still the main ingredients.

Here's the rub: It's probably good at showing something and giving some insight, but it surely is not good at representing the quality of shots a goaltender is facing.

 

[My3Sons]

lol You're giving JJ was too much credit calling him competent

In many ways the Avs look to me to be the blueprint NJ is following. Skill and speed and a mobile transitioning defense. NJ skated harder than the Avs last night and got a solid if not great game from Daws and won. The Avs looked like NJ against TOR for much of the night and got good but not great goaltending and lost. The Avs top six and Makar are spectacular. The rest of their team might be worse than the bottom six and bottom four on NJ. Their goalies are obviously better but NJ is just trying to play competitive hockey and the Avs have more or less a cup or bust outlook.

 

[billingtons ghost]

I can't believe everyone wasted their time posting charts and graphs at the person who thinks goalies don't have any impact on the game, it's all just defense.

Just thinking idly back to Blackwood's last game where the Devils dominate, don't score enough, then Blackwood lets in two clunkers and the team folds up the tent.

I don't know why you insist upon repeating this lie. I've never ever said this, and I wish you would stop.

I've said repeatedly that goalies have a tremendous impact on the came and there is a tightly coupled symbiosis between how a goalie plays, and how his defense plays in front of him and they are often at each other's mercy.

I find it funny that your 'proof' that you wave at me in the form of charts in truth says Shooter's talent doesn't matter, shot location doesn't matter, shot speed doesn't matter, goalie's vision of the puck doesn't matter, and only some timing of previous events matter a tiny bit. Yet your the expert, I guess seeing as how a Mason Geeesten lob should be treated like an Ovechkin snapper if they are from the same distance and angle?

Any person can see that Gillies is a bad goaltender, and that Blackwood wasn't himself and wasn't moving like a good/healthy goaltender would. Schmid and Daws don't belong in the NHL.

But making them our sole problem that is now 'fixed' bc of Daws is silly. If we go back to playing the way we did previous to these past 5 games, Daws will get lit up and you'll wave stats saying how terrible he has been.

The truth is our goalies have been abysmal on nights we were good, good on nights we were abysmal and generally bad the rest of the time.

Your stats will treat the first case as 'bad goalie', the second case as 'bad goalie' and the third case as 'bad goalie'.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

xGF/xGA is imperfect for sure but it's the best we got it seems. I do think there's a chance earlier in the season it underestimated how poorly the Devils were playing defensively, as they were a young team and their defensive breakdowns were particularly bad it seemed compared to others (e.g. cross ice uncontested one timers in the slot for example, expected goals don't include defensive positioning, and whether the shot was from a cross ice pass). Ultimately once player tracking data is added, someone could take a look and see how much better their new expected goal model is using the new information compared to the old one, and find out which teams or players it routinely over/underrates and maybe we can learn something.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

In many ways the Avs look to me to be the blueprint NJ is following. Skill and speed and a mobile transitioning defense. NJ skated harder than the Avs last night and got a solid if not great game from Daws and won. The Avs looked like NJ against TOR for much of the night and got good but not great goaltending and lost. The Avs top six and Makar are spectacular. The rest of their team might be worse than the bottom six and bottom four on NJ. Their goalies are obviously better but NJ is just trying to play competitive hockey and the Avs have more or less a cup or bust outlook.

I certainly hope Fitz has a better plan than the Avs defense. It's not good. I will be surprised if they win the cup with the defense they have if I were to be honest.

Also Girard got absolutely abused in the playoffs. He's soft.

 

[Hisch13r]

I certainly hope Fitz has a better plan than the Avs defense. It's not good. I will be surprised if they win the cup with the defense they have if I were to be honest.

Also Girard got absolutely abused in the playoffs. He's soft.

Byram not being able to stay healthy leaves a big hole

 

[Auto Pilot]

Thought zacha was fine tonight honestly. You guys are making him the whipping boy even in a win. Thought he was good on the PP as well. 2/4 made some good passes.

His line had 19-8 chances for and against. He was very fine.

 

[Blackjack]

lol You're giving JJ was too much credit calling him competent

Most bizarre 1,000 game NHLer I've ever seen.