Post-Game Talk: Avs 4, Pens 2 - Elmo Witnesses Nuclear Destruction

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Pancakes

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That they are taking crappy shots because they do not want to work, either in front of the net or to get a turnover, to get into position to take high quality shots?

Could be part of it. Like I said that doesn't tell the whole story, but we're also shooting worse than the worst shooting teams shot last year. LA was around 6% last year and we're even lower than that.

We're too good a team offensively to shoot like that for 82 games.

I mean, we are also getting routinely out shot right?

We're actually 10th in the league in 5v5 CF % so...no. We're doing just fine at possessing the puck.

Between our strong puck possession numbers and our complete lack of finishing luck there are reasons to think we may turn this around.

It's not a guarantee. Sometimes you just stay unlucky for a whole season. Shit happens. I would not be the least bit surprised though if we turn this around in the next month or two, trades or no trades. It's simply unlikely we stay this unlucky for the whole season. Not with the talent we have and so many guys shooting below what they normally do.
 

Jaded-Fan

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xGF takes where shots come from into account so that is neutralized. Its basically saying while our PDO is awful the process is league average and should be expected to get league average results going forward.

I go back to my luck usually follows hard work theory. They deserve every bit of 'bad luck' because they have not earned better.
 
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Pancakes

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I go back to my luck usually follows hard work theory. They deserve every bit of 'bad luck' because they have not earned better.

I'm more in the middle on that. Some of the bad luck is deserved, no doubt. But as Ramzi said our process indicates we should be better off than we are. He's not saying we should be an elite team (nor am I). But we aren't this bad either, and some of that is just plain bad finishing luck and bad luck with goaltending.
 

KIRK

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Our next eight games include six games against Metro opposition. This is becoming make or break.

tenor.gif
 
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WheresRamziAbid

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Either way, i see every shift our players deferring to the point for a shot by our d-men who can't shoot for ****. I don't see them try to work the puck toward the middle on a consistent basis, they're too spread out in the o-zone. Too many wrong things happening to just blame it on bad luck or shooting percentage..

Thats already taken into account.

xGF% is calculated by number of shots and where those shots are taken from. When their luck neutralizes they will be league averagish 5v5. Now that doesnt mean they cant be taking better shots to imporve their xGF% but the reason that they are dead last is indeed a lot based on bad luck.
 

Shady Machine

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One thing nobody is mentioning in the rush to make moves is this: We're dead last in 5v5 shooting percentage, and dead last in 5v5 save percentage. Dead last! We're shooting 5.5 as a team at 5v5. Does anyone really think that will last? We're getting incredibly bad shooting luck this year on both sides of the puck at 5v5.

We've had some stinkers no doubt but we're also getting exceptionally poor luck, and I don't think that will last.

I still want to make moves because I think the team composition is flawed though.

Will it last? No probably not, but do I think we have a bunch of ham and eggers that can't score, regardless of shot volume? Yes I do.
 

Fatty McLardy

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Thats already taken into account.

xGF% is calculated by number of shots and where those shots are taken from. When their luck neutralizes they will be league averagish 5v5. Now that doesnt mean they cant be taking better shots to imporve their xGF% but the reason that they are dead last is indeed a lot based on bad luck.

I still blame it on bad shot selection, players not working hard enough and getting to loose rebounds, unwillingness to screen the goalie etc..... If you want to blame it on bad luck, go ahead. i just hope Ol' boy Jimmy is not thinking the same thing you are.
 

DesertPenguin

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Honestly, we just won 2 cups. I feel content with however this season ends up, and if that means playing more golf and watching less hockey, that's fine. The problem is the players feel the same way.

Looking towards next season, the cap is going up to between 78 and 82 million, giving us lots of room. Any moves GMJR makes, I hope he is looking at them as longer term deals vs just rentals. This might not be our year but he could start the reloading process now and see what happens.
 

Pancakes

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When you're last in something it must just be bad luck. It can't be for any good reason....right? This is like back in the day when people would say "But the Pirates lost 24 one run games last year! they're so close". No, it means they stink.

Let me put it to you this way: Do you think we're a worse shooting team than the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche, or the 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres? Guess which teams we're shooting worse than right now? Hint: both of those.

Guess what we shot last year? 8.6%. And the year before that? (which included the woeful start under Mike Johnston) 7.5%.

We're shooting worse than the worst teams of the past few years right now. I'm sorry, but while some of that is no doubt deserved, there is also no way we shoot that badly over a full season. It'd be an insane statistically anomaly if a team with our talent managed to pull that off.
 

Pancakes

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Will it last? No probably not, but do I think we have a bunch of ham and eggers that can't score, regardless of shot volume? Yes I do.

Of course. We might not reach the heights of last year with all the duds we have in the bottom six, but with Crosby, Malkin, Kessel etc etc we're also not gonna shoot below 6 friggin percent all season.
 

UnderratedBrooks44

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Let me put it to you this way: Do you think we're a worse shooting team than the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche, or the 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres? Guess which teams we're shooting worse than right now? Hint: both of those.

Guess what we shot last year? 8.6%. And the year before that? (which included the woeful start under Mike Johnston) 7.5%.

We're shooting worse than the worst teams of the past few years right now. I'm sorry, but while some of that is no doubt deserved, there is also no way we shoot that badly over a full season. It'd be an insane statistically anomaly if a team with our talent managed to pull that off.

We’ll see. Maybe it’s a quality of shot thing, since it doesn’t seem like we’re having a problem getting good totals, though I haven’t looked. If that’s the case I’d still look for an uptick, but it’d still be symptomatic if other things.
 

The Old Master

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Let me put it to you this way: Do you think we're a worse shooting team than the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche, or the 2013-14 Buffalo Sabres? Guess which teams we're shooting worse than right now? Hint: both of those.
it's not just the no. of shots it the skill set that goes with it.....some guys can shoot all day hitting the goalie in the chest with floaters.....and some can shoot once and hit the top corner.
 

Shady Machine

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Of course. We might not reach the heights of last year with all the duds we have in the bottom six, but with Crosby, Malkin, Kessel etc etc we're also not gonna shoot below 6 friggin percent all season.

Crosby - 13.1% vs career avg 14.7% (lower but he's had several seasons this low)
Malkin - 11.1% vs career avg 13.1% (lowest since '12-'13)
Kessel - 11.1% vs career avg 10.7%

So those are lower overall but far from absurdly lower

Sheary - 13.2% vs career avg 14.3%
Hornqvist - 10.3% vs career avg 9.4%
Guentzel - 14.6% vs UNSUSTAINABLE career avg 17.2%
Rust - 7.1% vs career avg 9% but much lower than last year at 13.6%
Sheahan - 9.4% vs career avg 8.9%
Hagelin - 2.9% vs career avg 8.3%
Kuhnhackl - 3.3% vs career avg 7.6%
Reaves - 4.5% vs career avg 10.6%

Rowney - 13.3% vs career avg 12.8%
McKegg - 9.5% vs career avg 9.6%

Do you want to know PART of the reason why it's so low? It's the ham and eggers. Do you see Hagelin returning to his career avg? How about Reaves or Kuhnhackl?
 

WheresRamziAbid

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I still blame it on bad shot selection, players not working hard enough and getting to loose rebounds, unwillingness to screen the goalie etc..... If you want to blame it on bad luck, go ahead. i just hope Ol' boy Jimmy is not thinking the same thing you are.

:facepalm:

what i provided is literally the measurement of the things your talking about. Ignoring that they are getting league average chances and league worst results isnt because theyre not trying hard enough.
 

Mr Jiggyfly

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No one's blaming them over here either. It's not BS when the human body aging is a thing and we've played around 50 games more than anyone else the last two years, and the toughest 50 games of that stretch no less. So what year do they become not quite the traditional powerhouses they've been? Does it just never happen? For the third or fourth time in the last like 10 hours I will say this: no one's saying they're done or a shell of their former selves. The fact of the matter is that it looks extremely likely they may not be quite what they once were. If you can't handle that then you might want to start trying, because it's coming sooner or later.

As we all know, they're the engine that runs this team. So they simplify their games. All right. Does that result in more consistent offensive dominance by them, and the byproduct of other players being more useful game in, game out? If it does then great. That's the only way this team is talking playoffs, let alone Cup though. Even if they go back to basics and play a better 200 foot game, I see the team improving in other ways but not in the category that really determines their success, noted above. It's still not enough even with some patchwork trades, because those two need to be dominant as opposed to really good.

There's going to be a year where Sid and Geno aren't quite enough to gloss over any deficiencies we have. If you don't think it's this year that's fine, but from what I see I'm of the opinion that it's time to play the "you can only ask so much of people" card, and it's in no way a knock on either of them. They've played 35 games. I've waited this long to make any proclamations whatsoever. I've seen enough to feel strongly that their dominance has reached the beginning of the end. That's all.

Your just making up strawmen and throwing in poor assumptions.

I can't handle them getting older or you are looking for convenient excuses for their irresponsible play? I'm pretty sure I know the answer...

They need more help? They have a HOF bound winger and a kid that had a historical rookie playoff run flanking them. This isn't exactly them being stuck playing with coal miners, but hey, let's throw some more hyperbole on the fire.

The original argument stems from people thinking the loss of Bones, Kunitz, etc is why the team is playing poorly. You and they are ignoring the fact that Bones and Kunitz struggled to score into December last season, yet their record was much better than this year.

You think that had something to do with Crosby and Letang playing leaps and bounds better at this point last season than now?

They don't have to dominate for this team to win. They have to play more responsible hockey and stop trying to do too much. It's snowballing on them, and if you and others refuse to acknowledge that, I suggest that you try to watch the games without being so emotional.

Unlike you, I'm giving two great players credit that they can fix their games and get this team back on track, instead of looking for a cop out excuse like you.
 

WheresRamziAbid

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Crosby - 13.1% vs career avg 14.7% (lower but he's had several seasons this low)
Malkin - 11.1% vs career avg 13.1% (lowest since '12-'13)
Kessel - 11.1% vs career avg 10.7%

So those are lower overall but far from absurdly lower

Sheary - 13.2% vs career avg 14.3%
Hornqvist - 10.3% vs career avg 9.4%
Guentzel - 14.6% vs UNSUSTAINABLE career avg 17.2%
Rust - 7.1% vs career avg 9% but much lower than last year at 13.6%
Sheahan - 9.4% vs career avg 8.9%
Hagelin - 2.9% vs career avg 8.3%
Kuhnhackl - 3.3% vs career avg 7.6%
Reaves - 4.5% vs career avg 10.6%

Rowney - 13.3% vs career avg 12.8%
McKegg - 9.5% vs career avg 9.6%

Do you want to know PART of the reason why it's so low? It's the ham and eggers. Do you see Hagelin returning to his career avg? How about Reaves or Kuhnhackl?

Not only should theirs improve (maybe not to career average) but the smaller dips from the stars are hurting just as much since they should be taking more shots.
 
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Pancakes

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Do you want to know PART of the reason why it's so low? It's the ham and eggers. Do you see Hagelin returning to his career avg? How about Reaves or Kuhnhackl?

You forgot Letang at 1.9% versus 5.5% career, and Schultz at 5.4% versus 7.3% career. And even though those percentages are off by only a little bit compared to the norm for our top guys, that still makes a BIG difference when taken together.

So yes I do expect the luck to improve team wide for the rest of the season. By how much is up for debate, but I would bet you anything we don't finish the season with a shooting percentage at 5v5 below 6. We'll be closer to 7 than 5 by season's end I bet.
 

Richard

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For permanently closing their window? I agree.

Should they trade Crosby to? Because he's mostly played poor hockey this season, save about a dozen games or so. He had a flat puck along the boards he haphazardly let get by him and I instantly knew that would cost them a goal. He makes that routine play, and we likely have a tie game after Malkin's goal.

I see people praising Malkin, and he played hard, yet I counted three blatant turnovers he literally put on Avs sticks within the first ten minutes.

We can make lame excuses about who is gone, who might be brought in, what guys can be called up, but until their best players start playing responsible hockey, things won't change.
Easy answer as in move they are going to make.
 

Jaded-Fan

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You forgot Letang at 1.9% versus 5.5% career, and Schultz at 5.4% versus 7.3% career. And even though those percentages are off by only a little bit compared to the norm for our top guys, that still makes a BIG difference when taken together.

So yes I do expect the luck to improve team wide for the rest of the season. By how much is up for debate, but I would bet you anything we don't finish the season with a shooting percentage at 5v5 below 6. We'll be closer to 7 than 5 by season's end I bet.

Hard to score if you never hit the net, or anywhere close to it.
 
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SEALBound

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Hard to score if you never hit the net, or anywhere close to it.

If blocked shots were a positive stat, he'd win the trophy. Hell, it would likely be named the Letang trophy.

If blocked shots were currency and one blocked shot was equal to one dollar, he could buy himself out of his contract and go live out his life as a billionaire playboy on his own private island.
 

Pancakes

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Hard to score if you never hit the net, or anywhere close to it.

That would be his award for sure.

I feel like Schultz having a bad season and then getting hurt has been a big factor as well in our struggles. Maybe an underrated one. He was a fantastic offensive presence last season.
 
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