Auston Matthews Thread

[IPS]

These anti Matthews opinions are going to look awful in the near future.

His numbers are going to skyrocket with his new usage. Book it.

 

[Durrr]

I still agree with your previous argument.

Compared to McDavdid's "fake" contract, Matthews is paid fairly.

Unfortunately, I'm using McDavid's REAL contract as the comparable.

But you realize this doesn't actually make your argument valid then right? You can't nitpick stats and pretend like the other ones don't exist. Matthews would be making around 7-7.5 million back when Crosby/Ovi signed their 8.7 & 9 million dollar deals.

 

[Durrr]

Point is also right in that Tier (he scored 40 goals/NINETY points last year).

Look at what he signed for.

6.75x3. Add 2 years extra term to that, and it's like 8.5 millon. Not (lol) 11.6

In fact, I'd say that Point is probably the best comparable to Matthews. Same age, same year, same position, etc).

I also think Malkin had to lower his aav to get 5 nmc's on his contract. Something Matthews and Point didn't have the option for. These things need to be taken into consideration.

Again, you're picking the best contract signed all summer and attributing it to make a point (hah). Anyone can find the best contracts in the league and be like "LOL look see overpaid!".

Doesn't make it any less or more valid.

 

[Dreakmur]

These anti Matthews opinions are going to look awful in the near future.

His numbers are going to skyrocket with his new usage. Book it.

If he starts to bring the required physical and mental effort to dominate, I'll be quite happy to be wrong.

When he was drafted, I said he was going to be one of the most dominant 2-way forces in the league - think Anze Kopitar, but 10-20 percent more offense. I think he can still accomplish that, but he has not yet shown the determination or resilience. He's still young, so I hope he develops that under Keefe. Babcock was clearly not going to get the best out of Matthews. I'm cheering for him to succeed.

 

[Martin Skoula]

If he starts to bring the required physical and mental effort to dominate, I'll be quite happy to be wrong.

When he was drafted, I said he was going to be one of the most dominant 2-way forces in the league - think Anze Kopitar, but 10-20 percent more offense. I think he can still accomplish that, but he has not yet shown the determination or resilience. He's still young, so I hope he develops that under Keefe. Babcock was clearly not going to get the best out of Matthews. I'm cheering for him to succeed.

I don't see him ever getting to Kopitar levels of zone defense, but a bigger Stone with an elite shot is very achievable.

 

[Apotheosis]

How do you know Point's 40 goal/90 point year was an outlier any more than Marner's 94 point year? Why don't these arguments ever apply to LEAF players?

Are you ignoring the fact that Point shot 40 percent on the PP last year? And Marner's OiSH% wasn't completely in the other direction. He feasted on the PP early on but most of his production after early season came at 5v5 compared to Point's feasting on the PP. They DO apply to Leafs players. When people were saying Kapanen early on looked like he could be a 60-70 point guy, others realized that it was completely unsustainable. Marner has the talent to be a 100 point player and were it not for the PP going cold for half a season, he would have been. That's the difference. Point has pedigree, but Marner's pedigree coming out of the draft was literally that of a Patrick Kane type player, hence why it's less likely his 94 point campaign was an outlier. He was playing like garbage pre-injury this season and was STILL point per game under Babcock, who we can now see stifled the whole team offensively. Your comparison doesn't have much merit.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Point is also right in that Tier (he scored 40 goals/NINETY points last year).

Look at what he signed for.

6.75x3. Add 2 years extra term to that, and it's like 8.5 millon. Not (lol) 11.6

In fact, I'd say that Point is probably the best comparable to Matthews. Same age, same year, same position, etc).

I also think Malkin had to lower his aav to get 5 nmc's on his contract. Something Matthews and Point didn't have the option for. These things need to be taken into consideration.

You can't really compare Point's contract with Marner's contract. For starters, Point signed for 3 less years than Marner, which is why it kept his cap hit significantly lower. State taxes also plays a factor, more so than people give it credit for. After taxes, Marner makes about 1 million more than Point.

As for comparing point totals, Marner has 242 points in 259 games, while Point has 213 points in 246 games. Not saying who is better, just merely pointing things out.

 

[zeke]

I'm sure Zeke will happily post Matthews ES 5V5/60 stats but Malkin signed off a SCF loss and Hart runner up. He had a cup and Conn Smythe by the time his ELC expired.

Matthews signed off a bad playoff and hasn't made it out of the first round.

Malkin signed his contract on July 2, 2008.

He had no cups, and lesser production than Matthews, even though he got to play with sidney crosby.

 

[Gallagbi]

Malkin signed his contract on July 2, 2008.

He had no cups, and lesser production than Matthews, even though he got to play with sidney crosby.

Signed off a SCF loss and Hart runner up, like I said. After his ELC expired, he had a Conn Smythe and a cup.

 

[zeke]

Signed off a SCF loss and Hart runner up, like I said. After his ELC expired, he had a Conn Smythe and a cup.

Yep, didn't have a cup or his undeserved conn smythe when he signed.

 

[hotpaws]

Malkin signed his contract on July 2, 2008.

He had no cups, and lesser production than Matthews, even though he got to play with sidney crosby.

just wondering if you heard when the league is switching over to deciding games based on expected goals as opposed to actually goals like they're currently doing ?

 

[zeke]

just wondering if you heard when the league is switching over to deciding games based on expected goals as opposed to actually goals like they're currently doing ?

Yes.

 

[zeke]

Since he entered the league:

ES g/60

1.Matthews 1.56 (15:15toi) ---- 3.08pp
2.Marchand 1.31 (14:17toi) --- 2.50pp

ES p1/60

1.McDavid 2.45 (17:20toi) ------ 4.89pp
2.Matthews 2.34 (15:15toi) ----- 5.03pp
3.Malkin 2.30 (14:42toi) --------- 4.38pp
4.Marchand 2.23 (14:17toi) ---- 4.59pp
5.Stamkos 2.21 (13:53toi) ------- 6.50pp

ES p/60

1.McDavid 3.11 (17:20toi) ------ 6.96pp
2.Marchand 2.92 (14:17toi) ---- 7.41pp
3.Kucherov 2.87 (15:35toi) ----- 8.46pp
4.Stamkos 2.78 (13:53toi) ------- 8.13pp
5.Matthews 2.71 (15:15toi) ----- 6.36pp


Matthews, of course, is the youngest on the list, and the only one whose rookie year is included there.


Oh, and Matthews Under Keefe:

ES 16:53, 3.55g/60, 3.55p1/60, 3.55p/60
PP 1:08, 0.00g/60, 0.00p1/60, 26.87p/60

So he's getting McDavid ice time under keefe now, and his per 60 stats have gotten better, so far.

 

[Hustlr]

Thank you Zeke.

Let’s move onto Marner now shall we?

 

[zeke]

Thank you Zeke.

Let’s move onto Marner now shall we?

Unfortunately, he's no Matthews. But he's pretty good.

Same time span:

Marner 2.39p/60 (#20), 1.93p1/60 (#15)

 

[Hustlr]

Unfortunately, he's no Matthews. But he's pretty good.

Same time span:

Marner 2.39p/60 (#20), 1.93p1/60 (#15)

Oh sorry, I meant they should move their party over towards Marner instead.

 

[zeke]

Since he entered the league:

ES g/60

1.Matthews 1.56 (15:15toi) ---- 3.08pp
2.Marchand 1.31 (14:17toi) --- 2.50pp

ES p1/60

1.McDavid 2.45 (17:20toi) ------ 4.89pp
2.Matthews 2.34 (15:15toi) ----- 5.03pp
3.Malkin 2.30 (14:42toi) --------- 4.38pp
4.Marchand 2.23 (14:17toi) ---- 4.59pp
5.Stamkos 2.21 (13:53toi) ------- 6.50pp

ES p/60

1.McDavid 3.11 (17:20toi) ------ 6.96pp
2.Marchand 2.92 (14:17toi) ---- 7.41pp
3.Kucherov 2.87 (15:35toi) ----- 8.46pp
4.Stamkos 2.78 (13:53toi) ------- 8.13pp
5.Matthews 2.71 (15:15toi) ----- 6.36pp


Matthews, of course, is the youngest on the list, and the only one whose rookie year is included there.


Oh, and Matthews Under Keefe:

ES 16:53, 3.55g/60, 3.55p1/60, 3.55p/60
PP 1:08, 0.00g/60, 0.00p1/60, 26.87p/60

So he's getting McDavid ice time under keefe now, and his per 60 stats have gotten better, so far.

let's cut off matthews' rookie year, and look at the last 2yrs plus this year:

ES g/60

1.Matthews 1.59 (15:32) ---- 3.29pp
2.Marchand 1.38 (14:18) --- 2.47pp
3.Arvidsson 1.36 (13:42) --- 1.13pp
4.Gallagher 1.33 (13:18) ---- 1.59pp
5.Ovechkin 1.29 (15:34) ---- 3.19pp

ES p1/60

1.McDavid 2.49 (17:36) ----- 5.50pp
1.Matthews 2.49 (15:32) ---- 5.01pp
3.Marchand 2.37 (14:18) ---- 4.94pp
4.Draisaitl 2.34 (16:24) ------ 4.22pp
5.Kucherov 2.27 (15:38) ---- 6.00pp

ES p/60

1.McDavid 3.19 (17:36) ----- 7.21pp
2.Marchand 3.11 (14:18) ---- 7.64pp
3.Kucherov 3.05 (15:38) ---- 8.86pp
4.Matthews 2.94 (15:32) ---- 6.26pp
5.Draisaitl 2.85 (16:24) ------ 5.56pp

 

[IPS]

let's cut off matthews' rookie year

He could have very easily taken some hardware home that year.

 

[Mats13]

I really worry about him matching up vs. the best. Maybe it is unfair/my bias or maybe he never has to with JT - but do you take him over Bergeron? Barkov? Stamkos? McDavid? MacKinnon? Because that's what he is going to need to do to win a cup and really, that's what he is being paid for as well.

Aside from McDavid (I don’t even know why you’d include him in that list), I’d take Matthews over all of those guys. And it wouldn’t really be a very tough decision either.

 

[crump]

Matthews ES toi is going to be substantially more under Keefe. Even after 2 games you can see his usage increased. We haven’t even seen the team needing to climb back in a game behind a few goals, where he’s going to need oxygen back at the bench.

 

[Stephen]

Are you ignoring the fact that Point shot 40 percent on the PP last year? And Marner's OiSH% wasn't completely in the other direction. He feasted on the PP early on but most of his production after early season came at 5v5 compared to Point's feasting on the PP. They DO apply to Leafs players. When people were saying Kapanen early on looked like he could be a 60-70 point guy, others realized that it was completely unsustainable. Marner has the talent to be a 100 point player and were it not for the PP going cold for half a season, he would have been. That's the difference. Point has pedigree, but Marner's pedigree coming out of the draft was literally that of a Patrick Kane type player, hence why it's less likely his 94 point campaign was an outlier. He was playing like garbage pre-injury this season and was STILL point per game under Babcock, who we can now see stifled the whole team offensively. Your comparison doesn't have much merit.

One phenomenon to consider with Marner is we’ve seen him put up some pretty great numbers over a stretch where his on ice presence is actually not that great or noticeable. So compared with some players it’s not the best barometer for his true shift to shift value.

 

[Dreakmur]

Matthews ES toi is going to be substantially more under Keefe. Even after 2 games you can see his usage increased. We haven’t even seen the team needing to climb back in a game behind a few goals, where he’s going to need oxygen back at the bench.

Season average: 19:47
Keefe average: 19:13

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Season average: 19:47
Keefe average: 19:13

Matthews played 20:43 vs COL on Saturday.

# of times he crossed 20:43 with Babs - 15 games or so in the past 2 SEASONS.

And some of them were OT games where he was forced into playing Matthews more.

 

[Stephen]

Overdrive discussed the idea of increasing Matthews work load and mentioned how difficult it can be if he’s habituated you the 19 minute mark. I suppose they’ll have to ramp it up gradually. And they also made the interesting remark that Matthews isn’t necessarily in the best of shape.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Overdrive discussed the idea of increasing Matthews work load and mentioned how difficult it can be if he’s habituated you the 19 minute mark. I suppose they’ll have to ramp it up gradually. And they also made the interesting remark that Matthews isn’t necessarily in the best of shape.

Overdrive say a lot of stupid shit so