Auston Matthews is heating up - 8 goals in 6 games. Will he catch up and win the rocket?

[X66]

I really wish we could have seen Matthews in the 2005 post lockout era, when stars were getting 4-5 mins of PP time a game.

 

[leafsfan5]

I know it's cherry picking - but if you remove last season from the equation - and look at either this year only, or this year + 2019-2020, or this year + 2018-2019 + 2019-2020 - in any such comparisons, Ovechkin is either tied or slightly ahead of Matthews. Goals, or goals per game.

Is it cherry picking to remove Ovechkin's "bad" season last year? Sure. But I don't think it's necessary inappropriate when trying to predict a winner this year.

Ovechkin had a fluke down year last season, mostly due to injuries. He's a model of consistency aside from that, having won 7 rockets in past 9 years - and is back on target this year. Looking at his performances without last year's fluke is probably a bit more indictive of what we might expect from Ovi for goals rest of year. And it's very close with Matthews.

But by using that it also discredits Matthews best goal scoring season. I don't think he should be penalized for that, though I understand removing Ovi's season as he's clearly shown to perform better than that

Matthews last 3 seasons: 0.73 gpg
Ovechkin 19/20 and 21/22: 0.69 gpg

Still close, but Matthews has an edge.

If we want to cherry pick in favour of Matthews, his last 2 seasons (his best 2) results in his goals per game being 0.78. A more significant edge as Matthews has been at a 64 goal pace for over a season now

Slice it either way, it's close but Matthews has the edge. His goals per game this season is significantly higher as well (0.67 vs 0.76)

 

[bobholly39]

But by using that it also discredits Matthews best goal scoring season. I don't think he should be penalized for that, though I understand removing Ovi's season as he's clearly shown to perform better than that

Matthews last 3 seasons: 0.73 gpg
Ovechkin 19/20 and 21/22: 0.69 gpg

Still close, but Matthews has an edge.

If we want to cherry pick in favour of Matthews, his last 2 seasons (his best 2) results in his goals per game being 0.78. A more significant edge as Matthews has been at a 64 goal pace for over a season now

Slice it either way, it's close but Matthews has the edge. His goals per game this season is significantly higher as well (0.67 vs 0.76)

I think that's a fair compromise.

Definitely close either way though.

 

[authentic]

But by using that it also discredits Matthews best goal scoring season. I don't think he should be penalized for that, though I understand removing Ovi's season as he's clearly shown to perform better than that

Matthews last 3 seasons: 0.73 gpg
Ovechkin 19/20 and 21/22: 0.69 gpg

Still close, but Matthews has an edge.

If we want to cherry pick in favour of Matthews, his last 2 seasons (his best 2) results in his goals per game being 0.78. A more significant edge as Matthews has been at a 64 goal pace for over a season now

Slice it either way, it's close but Matthews has the edge. His goals per game this season is significantly higher as well (0.67 vs 0.76)

I also find 6 empty net goals at this point in the season already vs. 0 very hard to ignore if we're really talking about who's the best.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

I know it's cherry picking - but if you remove last season from the equation - and look at either this year only, or this year + 2019-2020, or this year + 2018-2019 + 2019-2020 - in any such comparisons, Ovechkin is either tied or slightly ahead of Matthews. Goals, or goals per game.

Is it cherry picking to remove Ovechkin's "bad" season last year? Sure. But I don't think it's necessary inappropriate when trying to predict a winner this year.

Ovechkin had a fluke down year last season, mostly due to injuries. He's a model of consistency aside from that, having won 7 rockets in past 9 years - and is back on target this year. Looking at his performances without last year's fluke is probably a bit more indictive of what we might expect from Ovi for goals rest of year. And it's very close with Matthews.

But by using that it also discredits Matthews best goal scoring season. I don't think he should be penalized for that, though I understand removing Ovi's season as he's clearly shown to perform better than that

Matthews last 3 seasons: 0.73 gpg
Ovechkin 19/20 and 21/22: 0.69 gpg

Still close, but Matthews has an edge.

If we want to cherry pick in favour of Matthews, his last 2 seasons (his best 2) results in his goals per game being 0.78. A more significant edge as Matthews has been at a 64 goal pace for over a season now

Slice it either way, it's close but Matthews has the edge. His goals per game this season is significantly higher as well (0.67 vs 0.76)

I think that's a fair compromise.

Definitely close either way though.

I wish the rest of HF boards was like this. Informative and respectful while being open to the others opinions.

 

[BlueBaron]

Flip a three sided coin. All three have strong cases as to why they could win. I think it likely comes down to who stays healthy and goes right to the wire. Which is what happens pretty much every year now. It’s usually right down to the wire and decided by a goal. Anyone pretending to know who is going to win is obviously overstating their case.

I agree it would be shocking if it's won by more than 2 goals. There is the one small consolation for us Dra and Matthews fans, that eventually Ovie will dip. Only God knows when that will be though.

 

[Plural]

Matthews is still my pick. Ovechkin could beat him, but that's it.