Auston Matthews is heating up - 8 goals in 6 games. Will he catch up and win the rocket?

[bobholly39]

Auston Matthews usually has great starts to seasons - but it wasn't the case this year. Missed first few games to injury, and then slow start by his standards.

And we all know the crazy good starts both Draisaitl and Ovechkin have had. As of today:

Draisaitl - 21 goals, 59 games to go
Ovechkin - 20 goals, 57 games to go
Matthews - 15 goals, 56 games to go

But Matthews has a 6 game goal-streak going, with 8 goals in that stretch. Less than 2 weeks ago, going into US thanksgiving, the goal leaders were Drai at 20, Ovechkin at 15.... and Matthews far back at 8. So - he's definitely catching up.

Matthews is coming off 2 fantastic goal-scoring seasons as we all know:

2 years ago - 1 goal behind Pastrnak/Ovi with ~10 games to go when season ended to covid. Good chance he ties/wins rockets if season hadn't ended.
Last year - won rocket by comfortable margin

What's your prediction for Auston Matthews in regards to the Rocket race this year as of today?

Feel free to rank who you expect your top 3 goal-scorers to be this year, and specifically where you feel Ovechkin, Draisaitl and Matthews end up on that list.

Click to read more...

 

[pb1300]

HATEEEEEE Toronto, but love AM. I voted yes.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Dunno, if Ovi can keep this up for a whole season, but I feel silly doubting him at this point. I say Matthews finishes 3rd.

 

[jetsforever]

2nd

 

[bobholly39]

Here's my prediction for the top 3:

1. Ovechkin. Going into the season he had by far the most question marks. Nothing about his level of play really, it's more about his age, and the fact that he 's coming off a bad season/injury. Was he going to go back to that ~50+ goal scoring pace, or was he going to start to decline with age? So - although there was a lot of question marks going into the season, I think he's answered them all, and at this point with his track record I see no reason to doubt him. He'll win the rocket. His point-scoring pace will go down for sure, but no reason he can't keep up a high goal-scoring pace as he has his whole career.

2. Matthews. Insanely consistent as a goal-scorer since start to his career. Trending up each year. I see no reason this stops this year. I say he scores 50+, and will make the race with Ovechkin interesting at times, but probably ends up #2. I say he ends up with ~50-55 goals.

3. Draisaitl. He's the best player of the 3 right now - but his offense is a lot more split with goals/assists. I don't think he'll score 150+ points as many are predicting, I think his overall scoring levels inevitably come down, and in the same way his goal-scoring will come down. I think he'll probably score close to 50 or just above, but will be good enough for 3rd place. He will have the most points though

 

[bobbyking]

has the talent if hes healthy... he has a serious chance to win

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Finishes with 30.

 

[AvroArrow]

Drai is playing lights out, it's going to be a tough task. He definitely can, but probably won't. I say he finishes just behind Drai.

 

[tucker3434]

Goal scoring is always a bit streaky, so I'm going to use 3 year averages.
Draisaitl: 3.09 sh/g at 20.5% would give him about 37 more goals for a total of 58.
Ovechkin: 4.33 sh/g at 15.4% would be 38 more goals for a total of 58.
Matthews: 4.25 sh/g at 16.7% would be 40 more goals for a total of 55.

Close.

 

[Regal]

I think he makes it close, and leads the league from this point forward, but I’m not sure if he’ll catch Ovechkin. I think he catches Draisaitl though, who I expect to slow down more than Ovechkin

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

3rd behind OV and Drai, maybe 2nd behind Drai who as predicted is slowing down as his unsustainable sh% drops. Would not be shocked if he won though.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

It's possible.

He's quite capable of closing that gap but Drai and Ovi are having incredible seasons.

 

[Plural]

He has a chance. At this point, Matthews is probably the best scorer in the game. However, Ovechkin is having a hell of a start and I have hard time picking against him when he's starting this strong.

Drai I believe will drop off a bit. Finishing 3rd is my guess.

My prediction is that Ovechkin will win the rocket but Matthews will be the league leader in GPG.

 

[Varan]

He has a chance. At this point, Matthews is probably the best scorer in the game. However, Ovechkin is having a hell of a start and I have hard time picking against him when he's starting this strong.

Drai I believe will drop off a bit. Finishing 3rd is my guess.

My prediction is that Ovechkin will win the rocket but Matthews will be the league leader in GPG.

Not at all

 

[TheDoldrums]

Nah, don't think so this year. Getting off to a slow start after missing camp and the first few games is probably too big of a hill to climb with the years Ovi and Drai are having.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Yeah I think he catches him. Ovechkin will slow down as the season goes 36 years old it will catch up

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

I think second to Ovi. Whoever comes out of the break the hottest will have the best chance

 

[Plural]

Not at all

It's between him and Ovechkin. it's not outlandish at all to suggest Matthews might be the best scorer in the game right now.

This season and last, Matthews is the leader in raw goals and GPG. I give Ovechkin the benefit of the doubt, because of his insane career. But right now, It's perfectly reasonable to think Matthews is the best scorer in the game.

Edit: In fact, going back to season 18-19, Matthews is still the NHL goal/game leader. He's also sitting at 140 goals, which is good for 3rd behind Ovechkin (143) and Draisaitl (145).

Please tell me how Matthews can not be described at all as "probably the best scorer in the game"?

 

[Apotheosis]

I think he catches up tbh. He's heating up. Finishes the year near 100 points with around 55 goals.

 

[Varan]

It's between him and Ovechkin. it's not outlandish at all to suggest Matthews might be the best scorer in the game right now.

This season and last, Matthews is the leader in raw goals and GPG. I give Ovechkin the benefit of the doubt, because of his insane career. But right now, It's perfectly reasonable to think Matthews is the best scorer in the game.

Edit: In fact, going back to season 18-19, Matthews is still the NHL goal/game leader. He's also sitting at 140 goals, which is good for 3rd behind Ovechkin (143) and Draisaitl (145).

Please tell me how Matthews can not be described at all as "probably the best scorer in the game"?

His 20/21 has inflated both his raw goals and GPG. Many still look at that entire season with a side-eye and various players aren't scoring at the same rates as they were in 20/21. Until Matthews can prove that it wasn't a fluke, OV is still better by default.

 

[bobholly39]

I think he catches up tbh. He's heating up. Finishes the year near 100 points with around 55 goals.

100 points will be tough due to his bad start/missed games.

He'd need 75 points in 56 games - which is a pace of 110 points.
In contrast, to score 55 goals he'd needs 40 goals in 56 games, or a pace of 58 goals

For reference - last year in 56 games (well, he played 52 games) he had 66 points and 41 goals. So - the goal-pace I believe is doable, but last year, even playing on what some call 'a weaker division' he scored at a ~104 point pace on the year. I thought going into this year he would hit 100 points too, but I think his slow start likely means he falls short.

 

[Plural]

His 20/21 has inflated both his raw goals and GPG. Many still look at that entire season with a side-eye and various players aren't scoring at the same rates as they were in 20/21. Until Matthews can prove that it wasn't a fluke, OV is still better by default.

Okay, how much did they inflate his totals? I'll do the math. 10 goals away? 15? How much?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

No I don’t think he can catch the front runners Ovechkin and Draisaitl.
Matthews is an amazing scorer but so are both of those guys. I don’t see him catching both of them given the lead they have.

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

drai is a beast!!! my fave player in the league. the guy just doesn't stop. like that mercury man character from terminator 2 or mark dascascos from the movie drive

 

[D Wakaluk]

No.

He's too soft.