Auston Matthews is heating up - 8 goals in 6 games. Will he catch up and win the rocket?

[Nizdizzle]

He's 12 points back but if he stays healthy, I don't think it's impossible for him to makes that up the way he's playing

Impossible? No. Incredibly unlikely? Yes.

Matthews doesn't rack up enough assists to contend for the scoring lead.

 

[Future]

Impossible? No. Incredibly unlikely? Yes.

Matthews doesn't rack up enough assists to contend for the scoring lead.

Agreed. Don’t think it makes him any less of a player. Just an extremely unique talent.

Would love to see him play with a true finisher one day as well and see if that changes.

 

[Menzinger]

At this point it's just a matter of time until he takes the goal scoring lead. He's as lethal at even strength as on the PP

 

[authentic]

At this point it's just a matter of time until he takes the goal scoring lead. He's as lethal at even strength as on the PP

I predicted around game 60 but honestly it's looking like it'll be a lot sooner than that now

 

[filinski77]

I agree, he is just that good. Generational goal scorer, the NHL has not seen a player of Matthews goal scoring caliber since Ovechkin entered the league in 2005.

Not really true. Other then Stamkos having a lacklustre rookie season (which I don't think really matters that much in this scenario), Stamkos has been equal at worst (if not trivially better) when comparing his career start to Matthews. Stamkos also lost out on 2 rockets (D+5 and D+7) to a younger Ovechkin (who was better than he was in his mid-30's).

This doesn't make Matthews any less of a phenomenal goal-scorer, more-so just that we "have" seen a goal-scorer with that calibre since Ovechkin other than Mathews.

	Stamkos	Stamkos	Matthews	Matthews
	Goal finish	G/GP finish	Goal finish	G/GP finish
D+1	75	89	2	4
D+2	1	3	17	2
D+3	2	3	17	7
D+4	1	1	3	4
D+5	2	2	1	1
D+6	43	1	2	3*
D+7	2	3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[34]

Not really true. Other then Stamkos having a lacklustre rookie season (which I don't think really matters that much in this scenario), Stamkos has been equal at worst (if not trivially better) when comparing his career start to Matthews. Stamkos also lost out on 2 rockets (D+5 and D+7) to a younger Ovechkin (who was better than he was in his mid-30's).

This doesn't make Matthews any less of a phenomenal goal-scorer, more-so just that we "have" seen a goal-scorer with that calibre since Ovechkin other than Mathews.

	Stamkos	Stamkos	Matthews	Matthews
	Goal finish	G/GP finish	Goal finish	G/GP finish
D+1	75	89	2	4
D+2	1	3	17	2
D+3	2	3	17	7
D+4	1	1	3	4
D+5	2	2	1	1
D+6	43	1	2	3*
D+7	2	3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Stamkos has been one of the premier goal scorers for years in the NHL. No slight having him in the conversation.

 

[tapi]

With Matthews' slow start, it seemed that this year his chances to compete for the Rocket were low, but he is once again proving why he has been the best goal scorer in the NHL since his entry to the league, as proven by his clear lead both in g/gp and g/60.

 

[34]

With Matthews' slow start, it seemed that this year his chances to compete for the Rocket were low, but he is once again proving why he has been the best goal scorer in the NHL since his entry to the league, as proven by his clear lead in both in g/gp and g/60.

Exactly. You can hate the Leafs all you want but the stats don’t lie. Matthews is the real deal.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Looks like it.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Each of Draisaitl, Ovechkin and Matthews have had hot goal scoring streaks this year so I wouldn’t read too much into Matthews current streak. This is a three way race and impossible to predict at this point. It may come down to health.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

so I wouldn’t read too much into Matthews current streak

Well considering Matthews scored at a higher pace last year than this year, it's not so much a streak, but simply status quo.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Well considering Matthews scored at a higher pace last year than this year, it's not so much a streak, but simply status quo.

18 goals in 16 games is a streak. Even for Matthews. There’s never been a player in history who had that as status quo

 

[Regal]

Well considering Matthews scored at a higher pace last year than this year, it's not so much a streak, but simply status quo.

I think he means his recent games (18 in his last 16). He should be the favourite at this point, but it wouldn't be totally surprising to see Ovechkin or Draisaitl stay ahead, especially with covid protocol making missed games a crapshoot.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

18 goals in 16 games is a streak. Even for Matthews. There’s never been a player in history who had that as status quo

I think he means his recent games (18 in his last 16). He should be the favourite at this point, but it wouldn't be totally surprising to see Ovechkin or Draisaitl stay ahead, especially with covid protocol making missed games a crapshoot.

Fair enough.

However, I'm simply pointing out that even with Matthews "streak", he's still scoring below last years pace.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

It’s become a three way race like it should be. Hopefully Matthews can pull another rocket out and beat ovi and others with no real asterisk

I expected pastranak to be here as well by now, but his slow start has hindered that. But it seems like he is heating up as well

 

[authentic]

Fair enough.

However, I'm simply pointing out that even with Matthews "streak", he's still scoring below last years pace.

Plus he's played 6 less games than Ovechkin and has 6 less empty net goals.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I voted 3rd because he seems to miss a chunk of games every year. Just think it'll be close enough by the end that if he misses 10-12 games that'll be enough to finish behind Ovechkin and Draisaitl.

 

[34]

Well considering Matthews scored at a higher pace last year than this year, it's not so much a streak, but simply status quo.

Its not a streak. He is just a goal scorer.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

I voted 3rd because he seems to miss a chunk of games every year. Just think it'll be close enough by the end that if he misses 10-12 games that'll be enough to finish behind Ovechkin and Draisaitl.

He hasn’t missed any significant amount of games since 2018

 

[bobholly39]

He hasn’t missed any significant amount of games since 2018

Doesn't have to be a significant amount of games in such a close race though. He's already missed 3 games this year. If he misses ~5-8 games total by year's end, that could be the difference maker in such a close race. As far as I know, neither Drai nor Ovechkin have missed a single game yet

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If he stays healthy the answer is yes

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Last two years
Matthews: 66 goals in 85 games (0.78 goals per game)
Draisaitl: 57 goals in 91 games (0.63)
Ovechkin: 50 goals in 84 games (0.6)

I'd probably go with Matthews here

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Flip a three sided coin. All three have strong cases as to why they could win. I think it likely comes down to who stays healthy and goes right to the wire. Which is what happens pretty much every year now. It’s usually right down to the wire and decided by a goal. Anyone pretending to know who is going to win is obviously overstating their case.

 

[34]

Last two years
Matthews: 66 goals in 85 games (0.78 goals per game)
Draisaitl: 57 goals in 91 games (0.63)
Ovechkin: 50 goals in 84 games (0.6)

I'd probably go with Matthews here

I guess the stats say Yes.

 

[bobholly39]

Last two years
Matthews: 66 goals in 85 games (0.78 goals per game)
Draisaitl: 57 goals in 91 games (0.63)
Ovechkin: 50 goals in 84 games (0.6)

I'd probably go with Matthews here

I know it's cherry picking - but if you remove last season from the equation - and look at either this year only, or this year + 2019-2020, or this year + 2018-2019 + 2019-2020 - in any such comparisons, Ovechkin is either tied or slightly ahead of Matthews. Goals, or goals per game.

Is it cherry picking to remove Ovechkin's "bad" season last year? Sure. But I don't think it's necessary inappropriate when trying to predict a winner this year.

Ovechkin had a fluke down year last season, mostly due to injuries. He's a model of consistency aside from that, having won 7 rockets in past 9 years - and is back on target this year. Looking at his performances without last year's fluke is probably a bit more indictive of what we might expect from Ovi for goals rest of year. And it's very close with Matthews.