News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Gary Nylund]

Playoffs are largely irrelevant to contract negotiations.

I am pointing out that our players are not as bad as some think, especially in recent years.

Goals and points play as important of a role as keeping the puck out of your own net.

Maybe that's the problem right there. I can tell you this, they would be relevant if I was the GM.

God, some of you are so dramatic.

Fwiw, calling him an 80 point C every year is a ridiculous oversimplification. He’s essentially played at a 95-120 point clip for last 4 years. Even this past season, which was clearly hampered by injuries 94 point pace. All you’ve proven is he missed games

That's fair. It's also fair to ask why we should pay top dollar for a player who is often injured and unable to play, or playing injured and not playing like a player who deserves top dollar?

 

[notbias]

Maybe that's the problem right there. I can tell you this, they would be relevant if I was the GM.

I don't disagree with it... although it is hard to make judgements when playoffs are so short, everyone plays different teams, and players play in them at different times in their careers... would be much harder to compare players. Probably why it is not done.

That's fair. It's also fair to ask why we should pay top dollar for a player who is often injured and unable to play, or playing injured and not playing like a player who deserves top dollar?

Last season is hopefully an anomaly with him playing injured. As far as games played... over the last 5 years, he's played more or within 10 games of

MacKinnon (another good reason to compare them)
Panarin
Pastrnak
Kucherov
Marchand
Rantanen
Stamkos
Crosby
Barkov
Ovechkin
Pettersson
RNH
Wheeler
Guentzal
Josi
Bergeron
Malkin
Nylander
Kuznetsov
Hertl
ROR
Barzal
Perron

so almost 50% of the first page (50 players) of top point producers in the NHL over the last 5 years.

Last season is worrisome if it can linger or is the new norm, I will say that.

 

[Mess]

I have my fingers crossed that our new GM can get Matthews re-signed to 6 or more years this time so we can try extract some value from this next deal to offset the last deal.

I'd consider this a win for Treliving and Toronto to get Auston locked in for at least 6 years.

 

[mclaren55]

You are just throwing out nonsense that is why I am responding with it.

Here is another fun one.

the 12.78 million number you gave is 13.55 million against the cap when Matthews' is signing...

It's irrelevant cause playoffs don't matter all that much, but based on individual stats/hardware (which seems to be much more relevant), Matthews is arguably #2 and for sure ahead of MacKinnon who is his closest comparable.

What part of my post was non-sense?

If you read my post, I was using time period adjusted numbers.

Try to be less arrogant, you'll get further in life.

If you're talking about personal hardware and stats, Crosby should still be the highest paid player in the NHL. You lack context throughout your argument.

 

[Stephen]

Playoffs are largely irrelevant to contract negotiations.

I am pointing out that our players are not as bad as some think, especially in recent years.

Goals and points play as important of a role as keeping the puck out of your own net.

How do you know playoff performances are irrelevant to contract discussions?

Pre-McDavid the largest contracts in the game were signed by Toews and Kane who had just delivered 3x Stanley Cups to the city of Chicago in a span of 5 years.

Post-McDavid, the largest contract in the game was awarded to Nathan Mackinnon… fresh off a Stanley Cup.

Seems like when we are talking about state of the art cutting edge, elite contracts championships have a lot to do with negotiations.

 

[ACC1224]

How do you know playoff performances are irrelevant to contract discussions?

They don't. Everything is relevant in discussions, there are no rules.

 

[Stephen]

They don't. Everything is relevant in discussions, there are no rules.

File everything under the heading “completely normal phenomenon” as per HBO’s smash hit, Chernobyl.

 

[notbias]

How do you know playoff performances are irrelevant to contract discussions?

Pre-McDavid the largest contracts in the game were signed by Toews and Kane who had just delivered 3x Stanley Cups to the city of Chicago in a span of 5 years.

Post-McDavid, the largest contract in the game was awarded to Nathan Mackinnon… fresh off a Stanley Cup.

Seems like when we are talking about state of the art cutting edge, elite contracts championships have a lot to do with negotiations.

Why did you just ignore McDavid? He got paid more than Toews/Kane and MacKinnon when you don't ignore CH% (the only thing that matters), he is the highest paid player (minus Crosby I think)

MacKinnon is also the 3rd best player in the world (you can argue 2nd), MacKinnon was paid for this.

I actually think Kane/Toews were paid extra for their cups though and those aged terribly.

Seems like Cups don't matter much.

There are a lot of big contracts and not many of them have cups.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't disagree with it... although it is hard to make judgements when playoffs are so short, everyone plays different teams, and players play in them at different times in their careers... would be much harder to compare players. Probably why it is not done.

I think the sample size is big enough by now for M&M to draw some conclusions. Matthews is much less of a concern than Marner in this regard though, the biggest worry with Matthews is his health.

so almost 50% of the first page (50 players) of top point producers in the NHL over the last 5 years.

Last season is worrisome if it can linger or is the new norm, I will say that.

So he's middle of the pack of top point producers over the last 5 years. Based on that it seems clear that paying him more than almost all those guys is a massive risk, if not a clear mistake.

 

[notbias]

I think the sample size is big enough by now for M&M to draw some conclusions. Matthews is much less of a concern than Marner in this regard though, the biggest worry with Matthews is his health.

The issue with the sample sizes is everyone's sample is much different.

Leafs played Washington, Bruins, Columbus, Montreal, and Tampa.

All of those teams are good defensively, and some that is the only reason they are a half-decent team.

2022 is a good comparison.

We played the team who was #6 in goals against.

Colorado played #6 in the final, but before that, they played #11, #17, and #18.

Not sure that would be a fair comparison, you could compare the series where they both played the same team I guess.

So he's middle of the pack of top point producers over the last 5 years. Based on that it seems clear that paying him more than almost all those guys is a massive risk, if not a clear mistake.

My mistake, he is 7th in points, 2nd in goals over the last 5 years. I was showing his health during that span. He is the middle of the pack for games played amongst the best players.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The issue with the sample sizes is everyone's sample is much different.

Leafs played Washington, Bruins, Columbus, Montreal, and Tampa.

All of those teams are good defensively, and some that is the only reason they are a half-decent team.

2022 is a good comparison.

We played the team who was #6 in goals against.

Colorado played #6 in the final, but before that, they played #11, #17, and #18.

Not sure that would be a fair comparison, you could compare the series where they both played the same team I guess.



My mistake, he is 7th in points, 2nd in goals over the last 5 years. I was showing his health during that span. He is the middle of the pack for games played amongst the best players.

Re. the 1st part - we could analyze it to death but I'll just say that almost every year the narrative around here is not that we played a team that is great defensively, it's that we got "outgoalied". And when you get "outgoalied" year after year after year, it's reasonable to wonder is it really the goalies, or maybe it's the guys that keep getting "outgoalied" that's the real issue here.

Re. the 2nd part - yes I understood that you were showing his health and my point stands - paying a guy top dollar who is only middle of the pack healthwise is at minimum a massive risk, and perhaps a clear mistake.

 

[notDatsyuk]

It is irrelevant in contract negotiations.

I don't even know what you're pointing out at this point, your posts are pointless.

If it is irrelevant in contract negotiations, why did you bring it up in contract negotiations?

Just pointing out that your point was pointless.

 

[notbias]

Re. the 1st part - we could analyze it to death but I'll just say that almost every year the narrative around here is not that we played a team that is great defensively, it's that we got "outgoalied". And when you get "outgoalied" year after year after year, it's reasonable to wonder is it really the goalies, or maybe it's the guys that keep getting "outgoalied" that's the real issue here.

I think in certain series we were contained and in certain series the goalie played great.

I think it is far too difficult to compare across series is all I am saying, where the season is much easier as everyone plays the same teams, the sample sizes are much larger, and momentum is not as important.

They've been "goalied" in 3 series in my opinion, didn't deserve the one series they won, and deserved at least the Tampa series the year before. Hockey is the luckiest sport of the major ones, it is why it is exciting, and it is also why I think that contract negotiations mostly involve the setting with the least variables.

Re. the 2nd part - yes I understood that you were showing his health and my point stands - paying a guy top dollar who is only middle of the pack healthwise is at minimum a massive risk, and perhaps a clear mistake.

There are some pretty big names on there, and Matthews has missed ~30 games in the last 5 years.

It's definitely risky though.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think in certain series we were contained and in certain series the goalie played great.

I think it is far too difficult to compare across series is all I am saying, where the season is much easier as everyone plays the same teams, the sample sizes are much larger, and momentum is not as important.

They've been "goalied" in 3 series in my opinion, didn't deserve the one series they won, and deserved at least the Tampa series the year before. Hockey is the luckiest sport of the major ones, it is why it is exciting, and it is also why I think that contract negotiations mostly involve the setting with the least variables.

There are some pretty big names on there, and Matthews has missed ~30 games in the last 5 years.

It's definitely risky though.

Agree to disagree - I don't need to "compare", I've been watching hockey for over 50 years and IMO the "outgoalied" narrative is way overblown and we've done a lot to make opposing goalies look much better than they really are.

Matthews missing those games is far from the whole story - how many games haver there been where he's playing like he's injured and can't shoot the puck anywhere near as well as he can when he's healthy?

I'll answer that question for you - the number of games is too many to count, that's why his production has huge peaks and valleys and that's why paying Matthews top dollar is a massive risk.

 

[notbias]

Agree to disagree - I don't need to "compare", I've been watching hockey for over 50 years and IMO the "outgoalied" narrative is way overblown and we've done a lot to make opposing goalies look much better than they really are.

Agree to disagree for sure.

Price was probably the best example, his highlight reel is basically just the Leafs from that season.

Matthews missing those games is far from the whole story - how many games haver there been where he's playing like he's injured and can't shoot the puck anywhere near as well as he can when he's healthy?

I'll answer that question for you - the number of games is too many to count, that's why his production has huge peaks and valleys and that's why paying Matthews top dollar is a massive risk.

His production has one valley.

 

[keglu]

Relative to McDavid's pre-signing period, Matthews' pre-signing period saw a 5.7% increase in even strength scoring rate, and 3.8% increase in PP scoring rate.
That's really all that is relevant. And even that is likely an overrepresentation of scoring difficulty changes.
There were 5-10% increases in top PPGs for reasons that would have no impact on Matthews' contract.

I was responding to your argument comparing McDavid in 16/17 to Matthews in 18/19. I would assume there is no 3.8% or 5.7% incrrease between these years because legaue scoring increased by 9% overall (and significantly more among top players). At the end of the day if you still claim these seasons were comparable i dont think we have anything more to discuss.

 

[Stephen]

Why did you just ignore McDavid? He got paid more than Toews/Kane and MacKinnon when you don't ignore CH% (the only thing that matters), he is the highest paid player (minus Crosby I think)

MacKinnon is also the 3rd best player in the world (you can argue 2nd), MacKinnon was paid for this.

I actually think Kane/Toews were paid extra for their cups though and those aged terribly.

Seems like Cups don't matter much.

There are a lot of big contracts and not many of them have cups.

Out of the last 3 rounds of the highest AAV being awarded, 2 of them (I’m counting Toews and Kane as one case) involved a recent Stanley Cup win. So other than ELC generational McDavid being signed a Stanley Cup and playoff performances factored in.

But I’m obviously not privy to all the contract negotiations you may have been involved where both parties ignored playoff performances so anything’s possible I guess.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agree to disagree for sure.

Price was probably the best example, his highlight reel is basically just the Leafs from that season.

His production has one valley.

Price was good, but we still sucked in game 7 (our annual game 7 suckage). And CLB was IMO the best example of us making their goalies look good.

Matthews has had more than one lengthy period where he looks like he's having wrist issues, so I call BS on your "one valley" claim.

 

[Gilmour1996]

Some of the "being outgoalied" idea can be blamed on Sheldon Keefe and an ex-GM who acquired soft top line players who are scared to go hard to the painful areas so would rather work the perimeter.

 

[IPS]

Price was good, but we still sucked in game 7 (our annual game 7 suckage). And CLB was IMO the best example of us making their goalies look good.

Matthews has had more than one lengthy period where he looks like he's having wrist issues, so I call BS on your "one valley" claim.

I gotta agree with that too. Those Boston series were tough breaks but you could at least understand them losing both of those. The Columbus series was just frustrating on another level comparatively - that's where I really started to question this core. That's also around the time you seen these "we got goalie'd" arguments started being commonly used.

 

[hamzarocks]

Why did you just ignore McDavid? He got paid more than Toews/Kane and MacKinnon when you don't ignore CH% (the only thing that matters), he is the highest paid player (minus Crosby I think)

MacKinnon is also the 3rd best player in the world (you can argue 2nd), MacKinnon was paid for this.

I actually think Kane/Toews were paid extra for their cups though and those aged terribly.

Seems like Cups don't matter much.

There are a lot of big contracts and not many of them have cups.

Toews aged terribly but Kane on his 3rd deal was probably better than he was on his 2nd deal

Toews wasnt ever as good as people hyped him to be. Wasnt a 10.5M player. He got it off reputation

Kane was dominant still from 2015-2016 until 2022. He just played on a waste of a team

 

[notbias]

Price was good, but we still sucked in game 7 (our annual game 7 suckage). And CLB was IMO the best example of us making their goalies look good.

Matthews has had more than one lengthy period where he looks like he's having wrist issues, so I call BS on your "one valley" claim.

Well, his scoring rates are some of the most consistent in the league and he was on a 60+ goal and 100+ point pace for 3 years in a row.

 

[Nineteen67]

That’s a dumb statement. Matthews is better today than everyone on that list save for McDavid and Draisaitl.

In therory he’s supposed to be. He just hasn't shown it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well, his scoring rates are some of the most consistent in the league and he was on a 60+ goal and 100+ point pace for 3 years in a row.

I don't think that's true, are you sure?

 

[Gallagbi]

How do you know playoff performances are irrelevant to contract discussions?

Pre-McDavid the largest contracts in the game were signed by Toews and Kane who had just delivered 3x Stanley Cups to the city of Chicago in a span of 5 years.

Post-McDavid, the largest contract in the game was awarded to Nathan Mackinnon… fresh off a Stanley Cup.

Seems like when we are talking about state of the art cutting edge, elite contracts championships have a lot to do with negotiations.

Ive seen it inflate value, but i cant think of an example contrary

I don't think that's true, are you sure?

His paces for an 82 game season over the last 4 years are something like

94
104
119
94

Give me a point or two either way, i did the calculations on the fly.

Overalll he and Marner seem to float around 4/5/6 for pts per game if you look at some 2, 3 and 4 year splits