News Article: Auston Matthews - August 1st., Contract Crickets

[Mess]

So, just to get this straight, you think Dubas signed terrible contracts and they look terrible because the cap didn't go up, so you're solution is to sign longer contracts for more money and hope the cap goes up.

I find it comical how the people saying Dubas shouldn't have expected the cap to go up now expect the cap to go up.

Matthews at 12.5+ (that would have been the contract and between Eichel/McDavid) would have been good in your books for the last 4 years?

The cap would have gone up if not for Covid.

Matthews is rumoured to be asking for 3-4 years now at $13.5 mil AAV and that is higher than $12.5 mil by +$1 mil.

Its the AAV that counts against the teams Salary Cap ceiling so now Matthews at $13.5 mil new contract will be more than McDavid $12.5 mil with 3 years remaining.

If Matthews original deal was for 8 years in length as it should have been like McDavid and his CH% and AAV was less than McDavid 5 years ago when signed then regardless if the cap goes up or not Matthews will always remain below and < McDavid, even though CH% is variable but AAV at time of signing is static and same throughout.

The more the cap goes up each season and the longer the term the less the contract impacts the team because that players CH% declines.

The NHL has already stated projected for the Cap in 2024-25 to go up by +$4 mil and then 2025-26 up +4.5 mil (which would have been Matthews 6 and 7th years of 8) at his former AAV and now because his contract of 5 years expires with this season Matthews new CH% and AAV will eat up more individual cap space again.

PS. A flat salary cap effects all players on all teams and all signed contracts equally.

 

[notbias]

If playing with McDavid is that much better than playing with M&M, what the heck are we paying M&M all that money for?

That's the problem with this team in a nutshell - M&M can't produce when the stakes are the highest, somehow they get "outgoalied" year after year. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

If McDavid is the comparison and only on points (trash defensively), then I guess no one should be making over 8 million.

they are PPG over the last 3 postseasons... they outproduce a ton of star players.

Their goal differential is always great, so we are winning when they are on the ice, many people seem to forget when looking at points that you also should try not to get scored on.

The cap would have gone up if not for Covid.

Matthews is rumoured to be asking for 3-4 years now at $13.5 mil AAV and that is higher than $12.5 mil by +$1 mil.

Its the AAV that counts against the teams Salary Cap ceiling so now Matthews at $13.5 mil new contract will be more than McDavid $12.5 mil with 3 years remaining.

If Matthews original deal was for 8 years in length as it should have been like McDavid and his CH% and AAV was less than McDavid 5 years ago when signed then regardless if the cap goes up or not Matthews will always remain below and < McDavid.

The more the cap goes up each season and the longer the term the less the contract impacts the team because that players CH% declines.

The NHL has already stated projected for the Cap in 2024-25 to go up by +$4 mil and then 2025-26 up +4.5 mil (which would have been Matthews 6 and 7th years of 8) at his former AAV and now because his contract of 5 years expires with this season Matthews new CH% and AAV will eat up more individual cap space again.

So we can finally agree the Dubas contracts were fine and it was Covid that hindered them? Thank you.

The rest of your post makes no sense like usual.

 

[mclaren55]

Matthews will get MacKinnon level pay which is what he is worth, too bad no one understands how the cap works and it will be more money than MacKinnon and people will freak out.

How is he worth MacKinnon money? MacKinnon produces an entire tier above Matthews in the playoffs. 77gp and 100 points, vs. 50gp 44 points. He won a cup, was one of their most valuable players, and still took a discount. In the most recent season he bested Matthews best season by 5 points whilst having multiple 90+ point seasons under his belt. If anything, Matthews 106 point season was an anomaly. I'm hard pressed to justify Matthews being paid equally to Mackinnon.

 

[notbias]

How is he worth MacKinnon money? MacKinnon produces an entire tier above Matthews in the playoffs. 77gp and 100 points, vs. 50gp 44 points. He won a cup, was one of their most valuable players, and still took a discount. In the most recent season he bested Matthews best season by 5 points whilst having multiple 90+ point seasons under his belt. If anything, Matthews 106 point season was an anomaly. I'm hard pressed to justify Matthews being paid equally to Mackinnon.

Individual awards.

Being a better player.

He took no discount, but if you think he did, then Matthews' signing at his ch% is good, it means Matthews' took a discount too.

Without Makar, Colorado is still a 2nd round exit team.

the 106 pt season is an anomaly when he was producing like that in the previous two seasons? Weird.

Playoffs are rarely used in contracts the way people are acting like they are. If they were, Tkachuk would have gotten like 7 million on his last deal, his playoff numbers were terrible at the time of signing.

Who are his comparables?

 

[Gary Nylund]

If McDavid is the comparison and only on points (trash defensively), then I guess no one should be making over 8 million.

they are PPG over the last 3 postseasons... they outproduce a ton of star players.

Their goal differential is always great, so we are winning when they are on the ice, many people seem to forget when looking at points that you also should try not to get scored on.

Sure, I remember recently someone telling me how great they played defensively when we lost game 7 to MTL. But we got scored on early and playing D wasn't enough, it was by far more important to score.

Perhaps M&M "outproduce a ton of star players" but the higher the stakes are raised, the more their production goes down. I don't think I'd even heard the term "outgoalied" before they kept choking in game 7's, seems like it was invented by the apologists just for them.

Individual awards.

Being a better player.

He took no discount, but if you think he did, then Matthews' signing at his ch% is good, it means Matthews' took a discount too.

Without Makar, Colorado is still a 2nd round exit team.

the 106 pt season is an anomaly when he was producing like that in the previous two seasons? Weird.

Playoffs are rarely used in contracts the way people are acting like they are. If they were, Tkachuk would have gotten like 7 million on his last deal, his playoff numbers were terrible at the time of signing.

Who are his comparables?

And with M&M, so is Toronto. On the rare occasion when we get out of round 1 that is, lord knows that round 1 is where our journey usually comes to an end.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Ithey are PPG over the last 3 postseasons... they outproduce a ton of star players.

If you're looking at the last three playoffs, they haven't even outperformed one of their own teammates!

Nylander leads the team in goals and is tied for second in points; at ES he is tied for the lead in goals and leads in points; on the PP he leads in goals and is third in points; he is tied for the most GWG.

All while averaging 4 1/2 minutes less ice time than Matthews and 5 1/2 minutes less than Marner, plus having to drag Tavares around.

 

[mclaren55]

Individual awards.

Being a better player.

He took no discount, but if you think he did, then Matthews' signing at his ch% is good, it means Matthews' took a discount too.

Without Makar, Colorado is still a 2nd round exit team.

the 106 pt season is an anomaly when he was producing like that in the previous two seasons? Weird.

Playoffs are rarely used in contracts the way people are acting like they are. If they were, Tkachuk would have gotten like 7 million on his last deal, his playoff numbers were terrible at the time of signing.

Who are his comparables?

Explain to me how he is a better player.

Ok, WITH Matthews Toronto is a 2nd round exit team.

Producing "at a rate of" isn't the same as "Producing". Also, in those two years you listed, let me know how he produced in the playoffs compared to MacKinnon.

Who are Matthews comparables? Not MacKinnon or McDavid. One won a cup, and has a myriad of 90+ point season, while the other is unarguably the best player in the game.

Matthews comparable are:

Kucherov
Draisaitl
Robertson
Rantanen
Tkachuk
Pastrnak

Just off the top of my head.

 

[Nineteen67]

Because he didn't play for us the last two years...... he needs someone like McDavid to drive his point total...

Why is this a hard concept? In Toronto he was bad.



Because Hyman can put up more points in a weak West beside McDavid and the best PP is why Matthews shouldn't get McDavid level pay? Makes sense.

Matthews will get MacKinnon level pay which is what he is worth, too bad no one understands how the cap works and it will be more money than MacKinnon and people will freak out.

Weak west? They’ve won tge Cup the past two years.

Treliving is still looking for a Zach Hyman as well as someone to lead the offence. He doesn’t have a Crosby, or MacKinnon, or Draistl, or McDavid, or Marchand, or Bergeron, or Stone, or Eichel.….etc.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If you're looking at the last three playoffs, they haven't even outperformed one of their own teammates!

Nylander leads the team in goals and is tied for second in points; at ES he is tied for the lead in goals and leads in points; on the PP he leads in goals and is third in points; he is tied for the most GWG.

All while averaging 4 1/2 minutes less ice time than Matthews and 5 1/2 minutes less than Marner, plus having to drag Tavares around.

All the more impressive considering our genius coach took him off PP1, still shaking my head over that one.

 

[Sypher04]

Weak west? They’ve won tge Cup the past two years.

Treliving is still looking for a Zach Hyman as well as someone to lead the offence. He doesn’t have a Crosby, or MacKinnon, or Draistl, or McDavid, or Marchand, or Bergeron, or Stone, or Eichel.….etc.

That’s a dumb statement. Matthews is better today than everyone on that list save for McDavid and Draisaitl.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That was my point. League wide scoring only increased by around 10% in that period. But it was heavily skewed towards top players with probably around 25% increase.

Relative to McDavid's pre-signing period, Matthews' pre-signing period saw a 5.7% increase in even strength scoring rate, and 3.8% increase in PP scoring rate.
That's really all that is relevant. And even that is likely an overrepresentation of scoring difficulty changes.
There were 5-10% increases in top PPGs for reasons that would have no impact on Matthews' contract.

And regarding /60 stats,during Matthews ELC there was 8 Leafs better at 5v5 /60 than anyone on Sabres during Eichel first 2 years. This inludes studs like JVR, Bozak, Kapanen, Hyman. So maybe you are the one missing context and comparing /60 stats between bottom feeder and Playoff team is not such great idea.

That has nothing to do with per-60 stats. That's just Buffalo not scoring - in part because of garbage depth, and while that is context that should be considered (and obviously was), it doesn't exactly reflect well on Eichel when his job is to generate offense and elevate players. Players that don't play with him being bad also aren't really relevant to him. Eichel's most common linemates during his pre-signing period were Sam Reinhart and Evander Kane. Not exactly no-talent bums. Is it that different in linemate quality impacts from rookie Hyman/Nylander/Kapanen/Johnsson? Eichel also got to actually play on PP1.
He was at 1.75 with a good Vegas team in 2021-2022 in the middle of his prime, and while he had a couple decent years, he has never really been a top 5v5 player.

 

[notbias]

Explain to me how he is a better player.

Ok, WITH Matthews Toronto is a 2nd round exit team.

Producing "at a rate of" isn't the same as "Producing". Also, in those two years you listed, let me know how he produced in the playoffs compared to MacKinnon.

Who are Matthews comparables? Not MacKinnon or McDavid. One won a cup, and has a myriad of 90+ point season, while the other is unarguably the best player in the game.

Matthews comparable are:

Kucherov
Draisaitl
Robertson
Rantanen
Tkachuk
Pastrnak

Just off the top of my head.

Was waiting for Tkachuk... so based off playoff production, Tkachuk signed for 9.5, I am assuming Matthews is signing for 4-5 million more? Tkachuk was close to .5PPG when he signed.

 

[notbias]

If you're looking at the last three playoffs, they haven't even outperformed one of their own teammates!

Nylander leads the team in goals and is tied for second in points; at ES he is tied for the lead in goals and leads in points; on the PP he leads in goals and is third in points; he is tied for the most GWG.

All while averaging 4 1/2 minutes less ice time than Matthews and 5 1/2 minutes less than Marner, plus having to drag Tavares around.

so let's give Nylander the same contract as Matthews, he appears worth it... or are we ready to admit that playoffs are not what we use for contracts and that points are not everything?

 

[sxvnert]

Both Willy and Matty are walking to free agency next summer. Leafs missed the opportunity to trade both this summer before their trade clauses kicked in. Here comes another long term rebuild.

 

[Suntouchable13]

so let's give Nylander the same contract as Matthews, he appears worth it... or are we ready to admit that playoffs are not what we use for contracts and that points are not everything?

No, how about the Leafs not give them any big contracts they are looking for? Matthews is an 80 point C every year except his MVP season. He is asking for 13.5 and for only 3 years? GTFO! Stop worshiping these guys, they only care about #1, that’s it.

 

[notbias]

No, how about the Leafs not give them any big contracts they are looking for? Matthews is an 80 point C every year except his MVP season. He is asking for 13.5 and for only 3 years? GTFO! Stop worshiping these guys, they only care about #1, that’s it.

Bertuzzi was a 30 pt player last year and people are excited.

Silly argument.

 

[andora]

Still too lomg before camp

No argument is good enough when downplaying matthews

You spin me right round baby right round

 

[mclaren55]

Was waiting for Tkachuk... so based off playoff production, Tkachuk signed for 9.5, I am assuming Matthews is signing for 4-5 million more? Tkachuk was close to .5PPG when he signed.

You aren't even being objective at this point, I believe you're just more concerned with proving yourself "right".

I listed a handful of players off of the top of my head, you chose to focus on one exclusively. I responded to your questions, and you ignore my response.

I'll play along with your disingenuous question. So your premise as presented (which I never spoke of) is playoffs are the only thing that matters in contract negotiations. If so, Matthews must be worth more than what Tkachuk signed for (in your estimation, 4-5million more), correct?

If you believe that Tkachuk is being paid 9.5mil due to .5ppg playoff production at his time of signing (ignoring a massive campaign from him POST contract, and regular season success that season), then lets look at Matthews and run some simple calculations:

Matthews at .85ppg through the same time period would equate to 3.29 mil more per season. Meaning his fair contract based solely off of Tkachuk and Playoffs would be 12.78 Mil.

So even basing it off of a ridiculous set of parameters that you've defined, he isn't even worth 13 mil a year.

How about having a discussion in a genuine way for once, NotBias?

 

[andora]

You aren't even being objective at this point, I believe you're just more concerned with proving yourself "right".

I listed a handful of players off of the top of my head, you chose to focus on one exclusively. I responded to your questions, and you ignore my response.

I'll play along with your disingenuous question. So your premise as presented (which I never spoke of) is playoffs are the only thing that matters in contract negotiations. If so, Matthews must be worth more than what Tkachuk signed for (in your estimation, 4-5million more), correct?

If you believe that Tkachuk is being paid 9.5mil due to .5ppg playoff production at his time of signing (ignoring a massive campaign from him POST contract, and regular season success that season), then lets look at Matthews and run some simple calculations:

Matthews at .85ppg through the same time period would equate to 3.29 mil more per season. Meaning his fair contract based solely off of Tkachuk and Playoffs would be 12.78 Mil.

So even basing it off of a ridiculous set of parameters that you've defined, he isn't even worth 13 mil a year.

How about having a discussion in a genuine way for once, NotBias?

Add a million for posts /60 and stick lifts per zone

 

[notDatsyuk]

so let's give Nylander the same contract as Matthews, he appears worth it... or are we ready to admit that playoffs are not what we use for contracts and that points are not everything?

Well, you were the one pointing out how great they were in the playoffs. So are you ready to admit that the playoffs aren't what we use for contracts? Or should it be part, since that's the most important season to most people?

It's certainly an indication that maybe Matthews and Marner are overpaid and/or Nylander is underpaid.

True, goals and points aren't everything, but my understanding is that they do play an important role in winning games.

 

[notbias]

Well, you were the one pointing out how great they were in the playoffs. So are you ready to admit that the playoffs aren't what we Well, you were the one pointing out how great they were in the playoffs. So are you ready to admit that the playoffs aren't what we use for contracts? Or should it be part, since that's the most important season to most people?

It's certainly an indication that maybe Matthews and Marner are overpaid and/or Nylander is underpaid.

True, goals and points aren't everything, but my understanding is that they do play an important role in winning games.

Playoffs are largely irrelevant to contract negotiations.

I am pointing out that our players are not as bad as some think, especially in recent years.

Goals and points play as important of a role as keeping the puck out of your own net.

 

[notbias]

You aren't even being objective at this point, I believe you're just more concerned with proving yourself "right".

I listed a handful of players off of the top of my head, you chose to focus on one exclusively. I responded to your questions, and you ignore my response.

I'll play along with your disingenuous question. So your premise as presented (which I never spoke of) is playoffs are the only thing that matters in contract negotiations. If so, Matthews must be worth more than what Tkachuk signed for (in your estimation, 4-5million more), correct?

If you believe that Tkachuk is being paid 9.5mil due to .5ppg playoff production at his time of signing (ignoring a massive campaign from him POST contract, and regular season success that season), then lets look at Matthews and run some simple calculations:

Matthews at .85ppg through the same time period would equate to 3.29 mil more per season. Meaning his fair contract based solely off of Tkachuk and Playoffs would be 12.78 Mil.

So even basing it off of a ridiculous set of parameters that you've defined, he isn't even worth 13 mil a year.

How about having a discussion in a genuine way for once, NotBias?

You are just throwing out nonsense that is why I am responding with it.

Here is another fun one.

the 12.78 million number you gave is 13.55 million against the cap when Matthews' is signing...

It's irrelevant cause playoffs don't matter all that much, but based on individual stats/hardware (which seems to be much more relevant), Matthews is arguably #2 and for sure ahead of MacKinnon who is his closest comparable.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Playoffs are largely irrelevant to contract negotiations.

I am pointing out that our players are not as bad as some think, especially in recent years.

Goals and points play as important of a role as keeping the puck out of your own net.

So postseason is relevant when you use it in a statement, but it isn't relevant when I use the same postseason to refute your statement?

Thanks for clarifying.

 

[notbias]

So postseason is relevant when you use it in a statement, but it isn't relevant when I use the same postseason to refute your statement?

Thanks for clarifying.

It is irrelevant in contract negotiations.

I don't even know what you're pointing out at this point, your posts are pointless.

 

[Sypher04]

No, how about the Leafs not give them any big contracts they are looking for? Matthews is an 80 point C every year except his MVP season. He is asking for 13.5 and for only 3 years? GTFO! Stop worshiping these guys, they only care about #1, that’s it.

God, some of you are so dramatic.

Fwiw, calling him an 80 point C every year is a ridiculous oversimplification. He’s essentially played at a 95-120 point clip for last 4 years. Even this past season, which was clearly hampered by injuries 94 point pace. All you’ve proven is he missed games