To me, the bloody shin and intoxication says it's less likely his doing.Swatting at her which is probably just a swing and miss of some kind and, mainly, her having a bloody leg along with bruises on her chest. I don't know how much she instigated anything, but as someone said when this first came out, if it was a factor, he probably would've used that "excuse" with the cop, which he didn't. If someone proves she was basically attacking him in some way and he was restraining her..... maybe..... but basically I was waiting on more details, got them, and they were worse than I hoped for.
Growing in a house as the youngest of 6 boys, I've had my share of altercations and none ever resulted in a bloddy shin.
I've also ran into my share of objects (coffee tables, planters, etc) while intoxicated.