Atlantic Division predictions part 2

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

So is every team in the NHL, A year older.

Yes but when it comes to your D core that's not a good thing

 

[GellMann]

Because someone scores goals on every team, including bad or growing teams. I really need to see Buffalo make a playoff push this year or next or I'm on the verge of calling them Edmonton East (a label we had in Ottawa a while ago, sadly).

Anyway, TB-FLA-MTL/OTT top 3, OTT/DET final bubble spot, TO improvement, the end.

What? They improved 27 points in the first post-tank season. They'd need 3 more years of finishing in roughly the same spot as this past season before you could call them Edmonton east. I want the Sabres to make the playoffs real bad, but I think they fall just short this season.

 

[Aladyyn]

Probably because he's still yet to have done it. There's a bit of shades of Markstrom if he doesn't put it together for a full season this year

Markstrom has never been as good as Lehner on the NHL level.

 

[Mpasta]

So is every team in the NHL, A year older.

I like how every one has Tampa #1, If Bishop gets dealt and Vasileskiy becomes Tampa's #1 Netminder i seriously doubt they finish #1 Vasy is okay but he's not that great yet.

Wow, some really solid arguments you have there...

 

[TheMule93]

Why does this thread guy do much more talk that any other division thread? Part 2 wtf?

 

[Beezeral]

Why does this thread guy do much more talk that any other division thread? Part 2 wtf?

mostly on the backs of senators, leafs, and sabres fans

 

[stokes84]

There are always 2-3 teams that get goaltending so bad that it crushes their season. And there are also always 2-3 teams that ride their goaltending to a much better season than expected. Then there are the other 24-26 teams that are stuck in the middle, and their record has almost everything to the merits of its skaters. Trying to predict a season based on goaltending is pretty eye-roll worthy in this era of hockey. I also just watched the Pens win the cup with a defense that on paper looks like it's not good enough to make the playoffs. It's incredibly hard to score in the NHL, no matter who you are playing against. Do you have the type of forwards that can make plays and score consistently? That's the difference in today's game. I know, calling forwards the most important thing is a novel approach, but that's what the league is about right now because scoring is so hard to come by.

 

[b in vancouver]

There are always 2-3 teams that get goaltending so bad that it crushes their season. And there are also always 2-3 teams that ride their goaltending to a much better season than expected. Then there are the other 24-26 teams that are stuck in the middle, and their record has almost everything to the merits of its skaters. Trying to predict a season based on goaltending is pretty eye-roll worthy in this era of hockey. I also just watched the Pens win the cup with a defense that on paper looks like it's not good enough to make the playoffs. It's incredibly hard to score in the NHL, no matter who you are playing against. Do you have the type of forwards that can make plays and score consistently? That's the difference in today's game. I know, calling forwards the most important thing is a novel approach, but that's what the league is about right now because scoring is so hard to come by.

Well - Boston was the highest scoring team in the division last year. Half a goal a game more than Buffalo, Toronto, and Montreal (after the first ten games)
We'll see how Detroit responds without Datsyuk - but I wouldn't sleep on them and think they'll be in the hunt all year. I get people talking about their defences but not really the 'age' aspect. Same as Boston -outside of Chara, the Bruins don't really have anyone past their prime.
I would be a lot more surprised to see both Detroit and Boston miss the playoffs than them both in.

I actually think Boston has a decent chance to win the division. Their missing a top 4 RHD but are pretty strong everywhere else throughout their line-up.

 

[BB88]

They still need a goalie and some help on their defence.

To become contenders yes but this is Atlantic, their defense is about average on the division and seems like almost every team on the division has major holes in their lineup.
Buffalo has the chance to have both #1C and #1D which would be rare, if Eichel develops well they could have 2 quality #1C's.

You could say the same thing about the leafs and everyone is picking them to be last.

Buffalo was 8th worst (vs worst) team last year and they won't be adding rookies to key roles.
Eichel, Ristolainen, Reinhart are one year older and they addressed needs pretty well.
Quality depth is an issue still.

 

[Sensinitis]

1. Tampa
2. Ottawa
3. Montreal
4. Florida
5. Bruins
6. Sabres
7. Wings
8. Leafs

 

[Doctor No]

Personally I think that team influence is harder to identify for SV%. I think it's a pretty clear influencer on GAA, so I never really look at that. But for SV%, you get guys like Chad Johnson who posts a .920SV% for you guys last year. I'm sure Dr. No could probably tell us what the best predictor/descriptor of goaltender ability is though since he seems to be the resident goalie guru. I might have to PM him and ask actually

Good question! I agree - of the "standard" goalie statistics, save percentage is the one that is least affected by a goaltender's team in front of him.

My personal projection preference is to take even-strength save percentage and special teams save percentage (PP and SH separate), then composite those together based on how many PP and SH situations you'd expect the 2016-17 team to experience. So if you went from a team that didn't take a lot of penalties to one that did (or if a team picked up a few high-PIM players over an offseason), then you'd expect save percentage to go down.

(More advanced would be a full risk-adjusted projection - looking at how a goaltender did on different situations and different ice locations, then fitting that mesh to the expected 2016-17 distribution of the new team. Although to be quite honest, I'm skeptical that the increase in specificity is worth the effort, since a goaltender's year-to-year variation in save percentage will be significant just due to random fluctuations - a goaltender with a "true" save percentage of 91.5% facing 2000 shots in a season has a reasonable expectation of seeing an "actual" save percentage of between 90.3% and 92.7% solely due to how the binomial distribution works).

 

[HarrisonFord]

Good question! I agree - of the "standard" goalie statistics, save percentage is the one that is least affected by a goaltender's team in front of him.

My personal projection preference is to take even-strength save percentage and special teams save percentage (PP and SH separate), then composite those together based on how many PP and SH situations you'd expect the 2016-17 team to experience. So if you went from a team that didn't take a lot of penalties to one that did (or if a team picked up a few high-PIM players over an offseason), then you'd expect save percentage to go down.

(More advanced would be a full risk-adjusted projection - looking at how a goaltender did on different situations and different ice locations, then fitting that mesh to the expected 2016-17 distribution of the new team. Although to be quite honest, I'm skeptical that the increase in specificity is worth the effort, since a goaltender's year-to-year variation in save percentage will be significant just due to random fluctuations - a goaltender with a "true" save percentage of 91.5% facing 2000 shots in a season has a reasonable expectation of seeing an "actual" save percentage of between 90.3% and 92.7% solely due to how the binomial distribution works).

Thanks! Really appreciate your insight. Is the .903-to-.927 interval 2 standard deviations or 3?

 

[Doctor No]

Thanks! Really appreciate your insight. Is the .903-to-.927 interval 2 standard deviations or 3?

Thanks! That's two standard deviations (or 95%) - I was going to elaborate there, but didn't want people to conflate 95% (confidence interval) with a 95% save percentage.

 

[Micklebot]

Why does this thread guy do much more talk that any other division thread? Part 2 wtf?

Probably because of how much parity there is in this division. You can make a case for every team having a pretty good season.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Thanks! That's two standard deviations (or 95%) - I was going to elaborate there, but didn't want people to conflate 95% (confidence interval) with a 95% save percentage.

haha, a .950SV% would be pretty record breaking Much appreciated on the info though

 

[HarrisonFord]

Probably because of how much parity there is in this division. You can make a case for every team having a pretty good season.

Parity and offseason changes

 

[WeDislikeEich]

This is hilarious statement and I CAN'T WAIT for it to be proven wrong

You better hope it is, with all the smack talking you've done about the Sabres goaltending this offseason. lol (j/k)

Plus your team giving up a 1st + 2nd round pick for Andersen and then a $5M x 5yr contract before he ever played a game for the Leafs...

And yeah Buffalo gave up a 1st for Lehner, but he had term left on his deal and will still be a RFA when it expires. Buffalo has more of a luxury of figuring out if Lehner is indeed our guy before committing long term to him. Leafs don't have that same luxury. It's tough to trade over priced, underperforming goalies too (not saying that is what Andersen will be, just saying that he is likely a Leaf for a while, good or bad).

 

[Micklebot]

Parity and offseason changes

Yep. A team like the Panthers made a complete overhaul of their blueline. Ottawa changed the coaching staff and should get a bunch of guys back from injury, Mtl will have Price back, swapped PK for Shea, and added Radulov, Toronto will likely inject a lot of talented youth, and swapped Bernier for Andersen. Buffalo didn't change much that I can think of (Lehner should be back) but I'll be honest I don't follow them at all. They do have some young studs that could take a step forward, and now that I think of it they added Okposo. Bruins added Backes to create some crazy two way center depth. Tampa is just a solid team, and will have a full season of Drouin. Det saw Dats walk and replaced him with .... I've forgotten who, but they always seem to find a way to be in the mix.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Yep. A team like the Panthers made a complete overhaul of their blueline. Ottawa changed the coaching staff and should get a bunch of guys back from injury, Mtl will have Price back, swapped PK for Shea, and added Radulov, Toronto will likely inject a lot of talented youth, and swapped Bernier for Andersen. Buffalo didn't change much that I can think of (Lehner should be back) but I'll be honest I don't follow them at all. They do have some young studs that could take a step forward, and now that I think of it they added Okposo. Bruins added Backes to create some crazy two way center depth. Tampa is just a solid team, and will have a full season of Drouin. Det saw Dats walk and replaced him with .... I've forgotten who, but they always seem to find a way to be in the mix.

Yeah exactly! I honestly think that the Atlantic is the most interesting division to watch going into the season

 

[Royal Thunder]

It's fun to see that every fanbase in the division has some things to look forward to this season

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

With the key players relatively healthy

Top 4

Tampa, Florida, Ottawa, Montreal

Bottom 4

Boston, Buffalo, Detroit, Toronto

 

[Seanaconda]

It's fun to see that every fanbase in the division has some things to look forward to this season

Detroit fans ?

 

[Sensinitis]

Detroit fans ?

young players like Larkin, Mrazek, Tatar, Nyqvist

 

[Bieber fever]

1.Tampa
2. Florida
3. Boston
4. Detroit
5. Ottawa
6. Buffalo
7. Montreal
8. Toronto

 

[Pyrophorus]

You better hope it is, with all the smack talking you've done about the Sabres goaltending this offseason. lol (j/k)

Plus your team giving up a 1st + 2nd round pick for Andersen and then a $5M x 5yr contract before he ever played a game for the Leafs...

And yeah Buffalo gave up a 1st for Lehner, but he had term left on his deal and will still be a RFA when it expires. Buffalo has more of a luxury of figuring out if Lehner is indeed our guy before committing long term to him. Leafs don't have that same luxury. It's tough to trade over priced, underperforming goalies too (not saying that is what Andersen will be, just saying that he is likely a Leaf for a while, good or bad).

Lou's been pretty good at picking solid netminders. In fact 100%