Atlantic Division predictions part 2

[BostonBob]

Boston Detroit and Toronto will fight for the last 3 spots

So you've got 3 teams fighting it out for the last 3 Playoff spots. I'm not much of a gambler but I sure like those odds.

 

[Dogewow]

You could say the same thing about the leafs and everyone is picking them to be last.

People are picking them last because they have a lot of unproven (yet talented) rookies coming in that have to make their way in the NHL. Plus, they are a safe bet for a lot of people to finish last because of the year they had before. Plenty of people picked Buffalo for last place last year because of the year they had before. It's a label that takes time to shake.

 

[leafsfan5]

I have it like this:

1. Tampa
2. Florida
3. Montreal
4. Ottawa
5. Buffalo
6. Boston
7. Detroit
8. Toronto

 

[Not Sure]

They still need a goalie and some help on their defence.

I don't disagree, they have work to do, but they weren't bad for very long. There always seems to be someone in every thread where Buffalo gets mentioned talking about how they've sucked for a decade, or how they're the East's Edmonton, and that's just not true. They only started to be bad in 2012-13 and only got really bad for the 2013/14-2014/15 seasons. Prior to that they had an ok core that just couldn't get it done.

The question mark this season for me is defense more than goaltending. Lehner was competent in net when he wasn't hurt and I think Ullmark will start pushing for a spot in Buffalo this season, he and Johnson did fine while Lehner was hurt but you could see Ullmark needed a full year in the AHL. He wasn't ready last year, but if he can show some consistency Lehner may need to start looking over his shoulder. If Bylsma can cut back on how heavily he relied on Risto he may have a real breakout season, you could just see the minutes he was logging were too much at this point in his career. It's nice to know he can take a 4 minute shift in a pinch, but he needs help. I haven't seen enough of Kulikov to know if they will be a good pair, but if he can take care of his side of the ice, unlike Gorges, Risto can jump into the play more often which is where he really excelled.

I think Sabres take another step this year but still miss the playoffs, but only barely. They are short a top 6 winger and need to upgrade at least 1 top 4 defenseman along with Risto proving he's a legit 1D before I think they will be seriously considered for a playoff spot.

 

[Price is Wright]

1. Florida
2. Tampa Bay
3. Montreal
4. Boston
5. Detroit
6. Buffalo
7. Ottawa
8. Toronto

6,7,8 all separated by only like 2 points. Same with 3,4,5. The Florida teams will run with the division.

 

[Aladyyn]

Lehner will have a better season than Andersen and make all these Leafs fans look silly

 

[Sting]

Lehner will have a better season than Andersen and make all these Leafs fans look silly

This is quite possible; over the course of an 82 game season:

Robin Lehner 1GP 1W 0L
Frederik Andersen 0GP 0W 0L

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Lehner will have a better season than Andersen and make all these Leafs fans look silly

This is hilarious statement and I CAN'T WAIT for it to be proven wrong

 

[Maplebeasts]

Lehner will have a better season than Andersen and make all these Leafs fans look silly

Did a Leafs fan shoot your dog or something? You sir are as much a homer as these "Leafs fans" you love to complain about. Anyways, I expect Andersen to do pretty well for us, but think Lehner has a good chance at outperforming him if our defence sucks. I have a feeling Andersen's stats and performance will be tied heavily with how Zaitsev translates to the NHL as a rookie. If he's a legit top four, our defence will be adequate, if he's an NHL tweener out of the gate, our D is in shambles with the exception of Mo and Gards.

 

[Aladyyn]

Did a Leafs fan shoot your dog or something? You sir are as much a homer as these "Leafs fans" you love to complain about. Anyways, I expect Andersen to do pretty well for us, but think Lehner has a good chance at outperforming him if our defence sucks. I have a feeling Andersen's stats and performance will be tied heavily with how Zaitsev translates to the NHL as a rookie. If he's a legit top four, our defence will be adequate, if he's an NHL tweener out of the gate, our D is in shambles with the exception of Mo and Gards.

No, I don't use double standards for my team and other teams.

 

[HarrisonFord]

The guy scored 23 goals as a rookie. I still don't understand why people are sleeping on him.

because he's not necessarily flashy in the way he goes about it. Flash is always more important on these boards than effectiveness

 

[HarrisonFord]

No, I don't use double standards for my team and other teams.

LOL I mean you can say it, but nobody has to believe it, nor does it make it true

 

[Aladyyn]

LOL I mean you can say it, but nobody has to believe it, nor does it make it true

William Nylander is a 50 point player based on his 22 game sample size from last season but Lehner is not a starting calibre goalie.

Leafs' completely unproven players are going to improve their team but other teams' "unproven" guys are going to sink those.

 

[HarrisonFord]

William Nylander is a 50 point player based on his 22 game sample size from last season but Lehner is not a starting calibre goalie.

Leafs' completely unproven players are going to improve their team but other teams' "unproven" guys are going to sink those.

I'm not using that double standard that you are.

1. a 50 point projection for Nylander is probably fair, considering his point production pace from last year and using his previous season point totals in the SHL and AHL

2. Lehner has shown starting caliber play in short samples. I would say that there's reasonable question marks surrounding whether he can do that for a full season though - as he's got an injury history and he's never played in the NHL for more than 36 games. That's one of the things that separates a true #1G from a #1A/#1B tandem goalie. In terms of comparing him to Andersen, you've said Lehner will have the better season, but to be honest (while possible) the information we have points to Andersen being more likely to have the better season. He's had two seasons of 43+ GP, and both seasons were better than 2 of the 4 stretches that Lehner has had in the NHL so far (and again those stretches were of small samples)

 

[Thorton02]

because he's not necessarily flashy in the way he goes about it. Flash is always more important on these boards than effectiveness

Playing in Jack's shadow, Reinhart is easily forgettable. Yet, he nets 23 goals in his first full year after all the questions following draft year+1.

 

[Aladyyn]

I'm not using that double standard that you are.

1. a 50 point projection for Nylander is probably fair, considering his point production pace from last year and using his previous season point totals in the SHL and AHL

2. Lehner has shown starting caliber play in short samples. I would say that there's reasonable question marks surrounding whether he can do that for a full season though - as he's got an injury history and he's never played in the NHL for more than 36 games. That's one of the things that separates a true #1G from a #1A/#1B tandem goalie. In terms of comparing him to Andersen, you've said Lehner will have the better season, but to be honest (while possible) the information we have points to Andersen being more likely to have the better season. He's had two seasons of 43+ GP, and both seasons were better than 2 of the 4 stretches that Lehner has had in the NHL so far (and again those stretches were of small samples)

So you're ignoring information about the teams they're playing for?

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

They are also one year older

So is every team in the NHL, A year older.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I like how every one has Tampa #1, If Bishop gets dealt and Vasileskiy becomes Tampa's #1 Netminder i seriously doubt they finish #1 Vasy is okay but he's not that great yet.

 

[Mit Yarrum]

Because someone scores goals on every team, including bad or growing teams.

Every team has a rookie scoring 23 goals? What?

 

[HarrisonFord]

Playing in Jack's shadow, Reinhart is easily forgettable. Yet, he nets 23 goals in his first full year after all the questions following draft year+1.

I agree. I think Reinhart is going to be a very good player. Wouldn't surprise me if he put up 25g, 35a next year

So you're ignoring information about the teams they're playing for?

Personally I think that team influence is harder to identify for SV%. I think it's a pretty clear influencer on GAA, so I never really look at that. But for SV%, you get guys like Chad Johnson who posts a .920SV% for you guys last year. I'm sure Dr. No could probably tell us what the best predictor/descriptor of goaltender ability is though since he seems to be the resident goalie guru. I might have to PM him and ask actually

 

[Aladyyn]

I agree. I think Reinhart is going to be a very good player. Wouldn't surprise me if he put up 25g, 35a next year



Personally I think that team influence is harder to identify for SV%. I think it's a pretty clear influencer on GAA, so I never really look at that. But for SV%, you get guys like Chad Johnson who posts a .920SV% for you guys last year. I'm sure Dr. No could probably tell us what the best predictor/descriptor of goaltender ability is though since he seems to be the resident goalie guru. I might have to PM him and ask actually

Goalies are weird. I don't think team influence is something easily quantified by stats. Look at Philadelphia for example, they were always a goalie graveyard until Mason, who is at worst a top 5 goalie in most "new" metrics.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Goalies are weird. I don't think team influence is something easily quantified by stats. Look at Philadelphia for example, they were always a goalie graveyard until Mason, who is at worst a top 5 goalie in most "new" metrics.

Yup I agree with you, goalies are honestly really tough to figure out. Even having a great year one year doesn't mean you'll have a great year the next year. That rare year-to-year consistency is what makes guys like Lundquist top goalies - they might not be the top in the stats every year, but they're a lock for top 5. I'll take that over a guy who goes from top 3 to bottom 10 year to year. Not saying that either of the goalies we're talking about fall into either category, just giving my opinion on goalies in general

 

[Liminality]

I think people are doubting Lehner because the most he's played in a season is 36 games in 2013-2014. He played really well for Buffalo but even that was just 21 games.

It'll be interesting to see how he handles the #1 role with that workload over a full season.

 

[Royal Thunder]

I think people are doubting Lehner because the most he's played in a season is 36 games in 2013-2014. He played really well for Buffalo but even that was just 21 games.

It'll be interesting to see how he handles the #1 role with that workload over a full season.

Not to mention he has been a highly touted young goalie for a several years now. Big and athletic and a good puck handler, at this point the only real question is his composure and health. The mass doubting of his ability to play well is odd to me

 

[HarrisonFord]

Not to mention he has been a highly touted young goalie for a several years now. Big and athletic and a good puck handler, at this point the only real question is his composure and health. The mass doubting of his ability to play well is odd to me

Probably because he's still yet to have done it. There's a bit of shades of Markstrom if he doesn't put it together for a full season this year