Speculation: Atlantic Division playoff race

[Henkka]

Buffalo Sabres?
What happened???

They did beat Wings 8-3 ...

... and probably thought they are on the TOP of the WORLD now.

VGK and BOS will beat them next.

 

[Sparty]

Buffalo Sabres?
What happened???

Samuelsson injury is big. I know everyone laughed about that contract when it was signed, but he's the best defensive defenseman they have, the guy paired with Dahlin, and they haven't been the same since that injury. Jokiharju is also out of the lineup and they're not that deep defensively.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Buffalo Sabres?
What happened???

Even in their worst years they started out hot and completely petered out.

Their defense is paper thin besides Dahlin and rookie Owen Power, and goaltending is bottom 10 in the league. Maybe even bottom 5.

 

[emptyNedder]

Samuelsson injury is big. I know everyone laughed about that contract when it was signed, but he's the best defensive defenseman they have, the guy paired with Dahlin, and they haven't been the same since that injury. Jokiharju is also out of the lineup and they're not that deep defensively.

The D injuries are a big issue. Dahlin/Power/Samuelsson/Jokiharju is a strong, if inexperienced, top 4. Losing the two defensive D in the group turns Buffalo into Edmonton without McDrai.

 

[Henkka]

Update:

Current Pts%:
1. Boston 0.857 (14 games) - 24 points
2. Detroit 0.607 (14 games) - 17 points
2. Toronto 0.607 (14 games) - 17 points
2. Florida 0.607 (14 games) - 17 points
-----------------------------------
5. Tampa 0.577 (13 games) - 15 points
------------------------------
6. Montreal 0.536 (14 games) - 15 points
7. Buffalo 0.500 (14 games) - 14 points
8. Ottawa 0.346 (13 games) - 9 points

Montreal seems to a bit better than expected. I was sure they would be tanking, but they seem to play good hockey. Monahan also isn't that much waste as was said at summer.

 

[Henkka]

Wings did rise 2 spots at East standings, thanks to Flyers loss for Ottawa tonight and Leafs loss for Pens yesterday.

3rd at Atlantic, 5th at East now.

 

[Henkka]

Players seemed to be very determined to fall on .500 level team, when listening how they spoke about the Sharks game. Really big win. Now we are 7th at East and 4th at Atlantic.

Good night, when TOR lost 1 point, FLO did lose, NYI did lose, and NYR lost 1 point.

Eastern Conference:

Pts%
1. ATL - Boston 0.882 (17 games) - 30 points
2. MET - New Jersey 0.824 (17 games) - 28 points
3. MET - Carolina 0.647 (17 games) - 22 points
4. ATL - Tampa Bay 0.617 (17 games) - 21 points
5. MET - NY Islanders 0.611 (18 games) - 22 points
6. ATL - Toronto 0.611 (18 games) - 22 points (absolutely love that Matt Murray is healthy again and losing games for them)
7. ATL - Detroit 0.588 (17 games) - 20 points
8. ATL - Florida 0.559 (17 games) - 19 points
----------------------------------
9. MET - NY Rangers 0.556 (18 games) - 20 points
10. MET - Philadelphia 0.500 (17 games) - 17 points (predicted a huge drop at some point, now 5 games zero points)
10. MET - Pittsburgh 0.500 (17 games) - 17 points
10. ATL - Montreal 0.500 (17 games) - 17 points
-------------------------------
13. MET - Washington 0.447 (19 games) - 17 points
14. ATL - Buffalo 0.412 (17 games) - 14 points (lost 7 in-a-row, after winning DET)
15. ATL - Ottawa 0.406 (16 games) - 13 points
15. MET - Columbus 0.406 (16 games) - 13 points

Atlantic 156 points / 136 games = 0.574
Metro 156 points / 139 games = 0.561
Central 139 points / 129 games = 0.539
Pacific 145 points / 140 games = 0.518

East avg = 0.567
West avg = 0.528

 

[NickH8]

Players seemed to be very determined to fall on .500 level team, when listening how they spoke about the Sharks game. Really big win. Now we are 7th at East and 4th at Atlantic.

Good night, when TOR lost 1 point, FLO did lose, NYI did lose, and NYR lost 1 point.

Eastern Conference:

Pts%
1. ATL - Boston 0.882 (17 games) - 30 points
2. MET - New Jersey 0.824 (17 games) - 28 points
3. MET - Carolina 0.647 (17 games) - 22 points
4. ATL - Tampa Bay 0.617 (17 games) - 21 points
5. MET NY Islanders 0.611 (18 games) - 22 points
6. ATL - Toronto 0.611 (18 games) - 22 points (absolutely love that Matt Murray is healthy again and losing games for them)
7. ATL - Detroit 0.588 (17 games) - 20 points
8. ATL - Florida 0.559 (17 games) - 19 points
----------------------------------
9. MET - NY Rangers 0.556 (18 games) - 20 points
10. Philadelphia 0.500 (17 games) - 17 points (predicted a huge drop at some point, now 5 games zero points)
10. Pittsburgh 0.500 (17 games) - 17 points
10. Montreal 0.500 (17 games) - 17 points
-------------------------------
13. Washington 0.447 (19 games) - 17 points
14. Buffalo 0.412 (17 games) - 14 points (lost 7 in-a-row, after winning DET)
15. Ottawa 0.406 (16 games) - 13 points
15. Columbus 0.406 (16 games) - 13 points

Bye bye Buffalo back to the lobby (draft lotto)

 

[raymond23]

The Atlantic is far and away the best division in the NHL. Kinda sucks

 

[Henkka]

The Atlantic is far and away the best division in the NHL. Kinda sucks

I kinda like it.

It makes you stronger, if you play more tough games.

It's not like the Pacific easy ride.

 

[14ari13]

The Atlantic is far and away the best division in the NHL. Kinda sucks

The east in general is much stronger than the west.

 

[Henkka]

Update:

Eastern Conference:

Pts%
1. ATL - Boston 0.895 (19 games) - 34 points
2. MET - New Jersey 0.842 (19 games) - 32 points
3. MET - Carolina 0.632 (19 games) - 24 points
4. ATL - Toronto 0.625 (20 games) - 25 points
5. ATL - Detroit 0.611 (18 games) - 22 points
6. ATL - Tampa Bay 0.605 (19 games) - 23 points
7. MET - NY Islanders 0.600 (20 games) - 24 points
8. MET - NY Rangers 0.579 (19 games) - 22 points
-------------------------------------------------
9. MET - Pittsburgh 0.553 (19 games) - 21 points (climing up)
10. ATL - Montreal 0.528 (18 games) - 19 points
11. ATL - Florida 0.526 (19 games) - 20 points (falling down)
----------------------------------
12. MET - Philadelphia 0.474 (19 games) - 18 points (free fall)
13. MET - Washington 0.425 (20 games) - 17 points
14. MET - Columbus 0.417 (18 games) - 15 points
15. ATL - Buffalo 0.389 (18 games) - 14 points
16. ATL - Ottawa 0.361 (18 games) - 13 points

Think the Bottom5, their season is already DONE. This Top10 (not including Montreal) will fight for the last 8 playoff spot.

4 of those Bottom5 team were expected to be there, and Washington season is killed by injuries. Any of them won't have muscles to start rising.

 

[pz29]

Buffalo Sabres?
What happened???

Oh, it´s just another tank (sarcasm). How many first-round picks have they had in the last 10 years? What results has that brought them? On the other hand, I am probably known here as an active member of the "anti-messiah in the first round" lobby.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Buffalo Sabres?
What happened???

They have a reputation for hot starts then falling apart after October. Right now they’re on an 8 game losing streak.

 

[Henkka]

Oh, it´s just another tank (sarcasm). How many first-round picks have they had in the last 10 years? What results has that brought them? On the other hand, I am probably known here as an active member of the "anti-messiah in the first round" lobby.

They have been the Team October now 5-times in-a-row.

Season 2022-23, first 10 games, 7 wins 7-0-3 = 14 points, 0.700 pts% (season record 0.389)
Season 2021-22, first 8 games, 5 wins 5-1-2 = 11 points, 0.688 pts% (season record 0.457)
Season 2020-21, first 9 games, 4 wins 4-2-3 = 10 points, 0.556 pts% (season record 0.333)
Season 2019-20, first 12 games, 9 wins, 9-2-1 = 19 points, 0.792 pts% (season record 0.493)
Season 2018-19, First 10 games, 6 wins, 6-4-0 = 12 points, 0.600 pts% (season record 0.463)

At season 2017-18 they started with 5 straight losses.

 

[TCNorthstars]

Oh, it´s just another tank (sarcasm). How many first-round picks have they had in the last 10 years? What results has that brought them? On the other hand, I am probably known here as an active member of the "anti-messiah in the first round" lobby.

The answer is 15. For reference the Red Wings have had 12.

 

[Henkka]

Leafs have now Rielly, Muzzin and Brodie injured.

Wonder how long would they survive without all Top3 defencemen.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

They have been the Team October now 5-times in-a-row.

Season 2022-23, first 10 games, 7 wins 7-0-3 = 14 points, 0.700 pts% (season record 0.389)
Season 2021-22, first 8 games, 5 wins 5-1-2 = 11 points, 0.688 pts% (season record 0.457)
Season 2020-21, first 9 games, 4 wins 4-2-3 = 10 points, 0.556 pts% (season record 0.333)
Season 2019-20, first 12 games, 9 wins, 9-2-1 = 19 points, 0.792 pts% (season record 0.493)
Season 2018-19, First 10 games, 6 wins, 6-4-0 = 12 points, 0.600 pts% (season record 0.463)

At season 2017-18 they started with 5 straight losses.

And it's the same thing every season. People on the main boards here are quick to crown the Sabres rebuild over, that they'll be in the postseason and be a contender. Same collapse as always.

Leafs have now Rielly, Muzzin and Brodie injured.

Wonder how long would they survive without all Top3 defencemen.

And how long can their goaltending keep that team's head above water?

I'm expecting a big hit in the standings soon.

 

[Ulysses31]

Rangers losing to LA, would be funny to see them miss

EDIT: jinxed it, NYR ahead ><

 

[pz29]

They have been the Team October now 5-times in-a-row.

Season 2022-23, first 10 games, 7 wins 7-0-3 = 14 points, 0.700 pts% (season record 0.389)
Season 2021-22, first 8 games, 5 wins 5-1-2 = 11 points, 0.688 pts% (season record 0.457)
Season 2020-21, first 9 games, 4 wins 4-2-3 = 10 points, 0.556 pts% (season record 0.333)
Season 2019-20, first 12 games, 9 wins, 9-2-1 = 19 points, 0.792 pts% (season record 0.493)
Season 2018-19, First 10 games, 6 wins, 6-4-0 = 12 points, 0.600 pts% (season record 0.463)

At season 2017-18 they started with 5 straight losses.

Your knowledge of factoids is impressive.

 

[norrisnick]

Your knowledge of factoids is impressive.

You're on the internet, my friend. Those factoids could be yours as well.

 

[TheOtherOne]

You're on the internet, my friend. Those factoids could be yours as well.

That is why we follow @Henkka

 

[norrisnick]

That is why we follow @Henkka

I just want access to pnep's data...


(not really, I just want pnep to run the data for me whenever I get curious)

 

[pz29]

You're on the internet, my friend. Those factoids could be yours as well.

Oh, I know, but the time to look...

 

[Henkka]

Happy thanksgiving guys!


Eastern Conference:

Pts%
1. ATL - Boston 0.850 (20 games) - 34 points
2. MET - New Jersey 0.800 (20 games) - 32 points
3. ATL - Toronto 0.643 (21 games) - 27 points
4. ATL - Detroit 0.632 (19 games) - 24 points
5. MET - NY Islanders 0.619 (21 games) - 26 points
6. MET - Carolina 0.600 (20 games) - 24 points
7. ATL - Tampa Bay 0.605 (19 games) - 23 points
8. MET - Pittsburgh 0.575 (20 games) - 23 points
-------------------------------------------------
9. MET - NY Rangers 0.571 (21 games) - 24 points
10. ATL - Florida 0.550 (20 games) - 22 points
11. ATL - Montreal 0.525 (20 games) - 21 points
----------------------------------
12. MET - Philadelphia 0.475 (20 games) - 19 points
13. MET - Washington 0.452 (21 games) - 19 points
14. ATL - Buffalo 0.450 (20 games) - 18 points
15. MET - Columbus 0.395 (19 games) - 15 points
16. ATL - Ottawa 0.342 (19 games) - 13 points

Atlantic avg, 0.576 (182 points/159 games)
Metro avg. 0.562 (182 points/162 games

That Thanksgiving Top8 team percentage to hit the playoffs was 76.3% from 2005.

I wonder what is the probability, if you are at Conference Top4 on thanksgiving?