Speculation: Atlantic Division playoff race

[emptyNedder]

I'm asking you who you think is legitimately better at their positions and roles in the lineup on Buffalo than the guys on Detroit's roster?

Up and down the lineup I would take most of Detroit's roster over what Buffalo has.

1C - Detroit
1D - Detroit
Top 9 wingers - Detroit
Defensive depth - Detroit
Goaltending - Detroit by a mile

2C - if Copp plays like Copp from 2020 to 2022 then he's the easy choice over Cozens or Krebbs
3C - If Rasmussen plays even 1/3 of the season at the level he did in game 1 then I take him easily over Krebbs

Detroit will be the better team this year because it's combination of veteran talent and younger talent.

I agree that Detroit has better established players. But Soderblom (to an extent another step from Raymond and Seider could be considered) is the only player with "unknown" potential. For Buffalo it is all of Power/Peterka/Quinn and to a degree Samuelsson and Krebs. If three of those arrive early, then Buffalo will be close to Detroit. They are definitely short on veterans, but Okposo is by all accounts a strong Captain.

For me the bottom lines are:
Detroit would be a mild surprise to make the playoffs; Buffalo would be a fairly big surprise, but not totally unrealistic.
Starting next season, and maybe this season if Tampa is worn down and Toronto implodes, Buffalo and Ottawa should join Detroit as Atlantic heavyweights for the remainder of the decade.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

- We'll see who strings solid seasons together Dylan or Thompson, so far it's Larkin.
- I would love nothing more than for Seider to be better than Dahlin but that is not clear yet, and definitely not for the start of this season.
- Not if our guys aren't playing.
- So far D depth is in favor of the Wings. If Power goes big, it's a wash.
- So far Husso has had one good game and one egg and Ned had a good one. Let them go round the bend a few times before we crown them. Three games in and the Sabre duo is right there with ours (slightly ahead).
- Right now I'm not sure we don't have three 3rd line centers behind Larkin. Which will be fine once Kasper comes over, but this season, not so much.

Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo, New Jersey (if they can get their goalies figured out), and Columbus are all in this pack that could finish anywhere between 75 and 95 points. I don't see any clear, definitive advantages we (or anyone else) has over the others of this group. None of these teams are solid enough to be resistant to slumps if the wheels come off, but all are strong enough where they could ride a hot streak or two to put up some points.

If Power kicks off we've got Edvinsson waiting in Grand Rapids playing like a beast. I think that's a wash. Also Husso didn't really lay an egg. LA played better than a Detroit team that was on it's 3rd game in 4 nights. He didn't stand on his head but he wasn't to blame for an OTL.
If you think Tage Thompson is better than Larkin then you and I have vastly different opinions of what makes a 1C.
Seider hasn't played as good as last season YET, but on an average day he's a better #1D than Dahlin.

 

[norrisnick]

I'm judging the teams overall.

The "veteran core" of Skinner, Tuch and Okposo is equal to or less than the "veteran core" of Detroit in Larkin, Perron and Bertuzzi.

Larkin is better than Thompson
Seider, when on his game, is a flat out better player than Dahlin. Just as good offensively without being a f***ing muppet defensively.
Husso and Nedeljovic are both better than either Buffalo goalie.

Now look at the depth:
Chiarot is better than Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, Jokiharju and Bryson
Power is better than Hronek
Maatta is better than Lyubushkin, Jokiharju, Bryson
Perron is better than Skinner, Tuch, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Bertuzzi is better than Skinner,Tuch, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Vrana is better than Skinner, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Raymond is better than Skinner, Okposo, Tuch, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Kubalik is better than Okposo, Quinn, Asplund and Peterka
Rasmussen is better than Mittelstadt and Krebs
Copp is better than Cozens (for now) Krebs and Mittelstadt

Line for line Detroit is the more talented team. If the coaching can bring it together this will be shown in the standings.

I can't give it to Mo yet. I desperately want him to be, but Dahlin is no joke.

Skinner is as good as any of our wingers. 30/30 year in and out (that isn't a covid year) for 10 years.
Okposo is a wash with Perron IMO
And there is a lot of faith being put into Kubalik, Ras, and Copp that they might not live up to. Are there question marks for the Sabre players? Absolutely, but I'm not willing to just blanket judgement our guys ahead of all of theirs.

The test will be when we play them.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I can't give it to Mo yet. I desperately want him to be, but Dahlin is no joke.

Skinner is as good as any of our wingers. 30/30 year in and out (that isn't a covid year) for 10 years.
Okposo is a wash with Perron IMO
And there is a lot of faith being put into Kubalik, Ras, and Copp that they might not live up to. Are there question marks for the Sabre players? Absolutely, but I'm not willing to just blanket judgement our guys ahead of all of theirs.

The test will be when we play them.

Skinner is a 30/30 winger who is a total liability and can't consistently BE a 30/30 winger.
Also Okposo and Perron a wash?

2018-19	30	BUF	NHL	78	14	15	29	-9	41	7	7	0	2	11	4	0	147	9.5	232	1075	13:47	63	71	47.0	27	87	17	27
2019-20	31	BUF	NHL	52	9	10	19	-3	28	8	1	0	2	10	0	0	82	11.0	133	668	12:51	38	33	53.5	15	55	15	13	Byng-39
2020-21	32	BUF	NHL	35	2	11	13	-1	0	1	0	1	0	10	0	1	45	4.4	69	486	13:53	26	22	54.2	14	29	10	9
2021-22	33	BUF	NHL	74	21	24	45	-15	43	11	8	2

2018-19	30	STL	NHL	57	23	23	46	3	46	16	7	0	1	16	7	0	112	20.5	204	974	17:06	15	18	45.5	13	52	41	17
2019-20	31	STL	NHL	71	25	35	60	2	52	16	9	0	9	17	18	0	166	15.1	324	1300	18:19	3	5	37.5	19	67	39	35	AS-7
2020-21	32	STL	NHL	56	19	39	58	6	22	13	6	0	2	24	15	0	151	12.6	288	1039	18:33	0	6	0.0	25	45	17	32	AS-8
2021-22	33	STL	NHL	67	27	30	57	8	48	16	11	0	2	15	15	0	177	15.3	319	1138	16:59	1	3	25.0	11	80	37	18

 

[norrisnick]

If Power kicks off we've got Edvinsson waiting in Grand Rapids playing like a beast. I think that's a wash. Also Husso didn't really lay an egg. LA played better than a Detroit team that was on it's 3rd game in 4 nights. He didn't stand on his head but he wasn't to blame for an OTL.
If you think Tage Thompson is better than Larkin then you and I have vastly different opinions of what makes a 1C.
Seider hasn't played as good as last season YET, but on an average day he's a better #1D than Dahlin.

5 is an egg. Were some that you can't blame him for? Absolutely, but as a goalie you can't give up 5 and expect the team to be able to win.
I expect Larkin to be the better of the two. But lets see him string more of these 30/30 seasons together and maybe push it beyond that. He hasn't yet.
Again, I'd love nothing more than for that to be true. Mo needs to step. Dahlin has this year.

Skinner is a 30/30 winger who is a total liability and can't consistently BE a 30/30 winger.
Also Okposo and Perron a wash?

2018-19	30	BUF	NHL	78	14	15	29	-9	41	7	7	0	2	11	4	0	147	9.5	232	1075	13:47	63	71	47.0	27	87	17	27
2019-20	31	BUF	NHL	52	9	10	19	-3	28	8	1	0	2	10	0	0	82	11.0	133	668	12:51	38	33	53.5	15	55	15	13	Byng-39
2020-21	32	BUF	NHL	35	2	11	13	-1	0	1	0	1	0	10	0	1	45	4.4	69	486	13:53	26	22	54.2	14	29	10	9
2021-22	33	BUF	NHL	74	21	24	45	-15	43	11	8	2

2018-19	30	STL	NHL	57	23	23	46	3	46	16	7	0	1	16	7	0	112	20.5	204	974	17:06	15	18	45.5	13	52	41	17
2019-20	31	STL	NHL	71	25	35	60	2	52	16	9	0	9	17	18	0	166	15.1	324	1300	18:19	3	5	37.5	19	67	39	35	AS-7
2020-21	32	STL	NHL	56	19	39	58	6	22	13	6	0	2	24	15	0	151	12.6	288	1039	18:33	0	6	0.0	25	45	17	32	AS-8
2021-22	33	STL	NHL	67	27	30	57	8	48	16	11	0	2	15	15	0	177	15.3	319	1138	16:59	1	3	25.0	11	80	37	18

I have a hard time taking the covid years at full value. A lot of teams/players very clearly struggled and others did not.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I'm judging the teams overall.

The "veteran core" of Skinner, Tuch and Okposo is equal to or less than the "veteran core" of Detroit in Larkin, Perron and Bertuzzi.

Larkin is better than Thompson
Seider, when on his game, is a flat out better player than Dahlin. Just as good offensively without being a f***ing muppet defensively.
Husso and Nedeljovic are both better than either Buffalo goalie.

Now look at the depth:
Chiarot is better than Samuelsson, Lyubushkin, Jokiharju and Bryson
Power is better than Hronek
Maatta is better than Lyubushkin, Jokiharju, Bryson
Perron is better than Skinner, Tuch, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Bertuzzi is better than Skinner,Tuch, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Vrana is better than Skinner, Okposo, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Raymond is better than Skinner, Okposo, Tuch, Quinn, Peterka, Asplund
Kubalik is better than Okposo, Quinn, Asplund and Peterka
Rasmussen is better than Mittelstadt and Krebs
Copp is better than Cozens (for now) Krebs and Mittelstadt

Line for line Detroit is the more talented team. If the coaching can bring it together this will be shown in the standings.

I disagree with lots of this.

Kubalik is not better than Peterka. He’s a rookie but he’ll compete for the Calder. He is phenomenal. It remains to be seen if Vrana is better than JJP either.
Bertuzzi and Tuch are a wash apart from Berts one career year last year.

Power is very, very good and not just “better” than Hronek, he’s leaps and bounds better.

Seider is not clearly ahead of Dahlin. Dahlin has taken another big step this season and his defensive game is now solid. His offensive game is signifcantly better than Seiders. I would say they are comparable.

I don’t think Buffalo is way ahead, but you’re overrated lots of our guys and underrating pretty much all of theirs.

 

[K1900L]

Out of the three 'evenly matched', Ottawa has the most offensive power but the worst defence whereas Detroit and Buffalo are more balanced imo.
If Sanderson has a great season in Ottawa (looks like it) they have the most quality. Sanderson, Chabot and Zub doesn't look any worse than Seider, Chiarot and Hronek as well. The fact that all of their core but Giroux is under 24 also makes them the biggest names for the upcoming years.
Some of you make them worse than they are. I think we are ahead of Buffalo, though.
The Bruins, the one big team that most experts imagined to drop out of the race the earliest, doesn't look bad either. In fact, Toronto looked far worse, especially due to goaltending, but they most definitely won't fall out of the race.
Neither will Tampa.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Buffalo will make it. They are deep at every position and Dahlin will be a Norris finalist this year.

This seems like a huge overreaction.

 

[Henkka]

Detroit will be 10-15 points ahead of Buffalo at season end and 5-10 points ahead of Ottawa.

***

BTW, interesting injuries for others. Now Toronto lost Muzzin to IR, and Ekblad is out at least a month for Florida.

This is our chance. Take an advantage of it.

Current injuries:
Detroit - W Bertuzzi, W Vrana suspended, (not so important, Walman, Pysyk, Berggren)
Toronto - G Murray, D Muzzin (D Liljegren, D Benn)
Ottawa - G Talbot
Florida - D Ekblad, D Montour, W Duclair
Boston - D McAvoy, LW Marchand, D Grzelcyk
Tampa Bay - C Cirelli, D Bogosian, D Cole suspended
Montreal - D Matheson, D Edmundson, RW Armia, (long-term G Price, W Byron)
Buffalo - NONE (retired LTIR contract G Bishop)

 

[StargateSG1]

"Playoff Race" speculations in October, 4 games into the season?
Alrighty then!

 

[Gniwder]

Detroit will be 10-15 points ahead of Buffalo at season end and 5-10 points ahead of Ottawa.

***

BTW, interesting injuries for others. Now Toronto lost Muzzin to IR, and Ekblad is out at least a month for Florida.

This is our chance. Take an advantage of it.

Current injuries:
Detroit - W Bertuzzi, W Vrana suspended, (not so important, Walman, Pysyk, Berggren)
Toronto - G Murray, D Muzzin (D Liljegren, D Benn)
Ottawa - G Talbot
Florida - D Ekblad, D Montour, W Duclair
Boston - D McAvoy, LW Marchand, D Grzelcyk
Tampa Bay - C Cirelli, D Bogosian, D Cole suspended
Montreal - D Matheson, D Edmundson, RW Armia, (long-term G Price, W Byron)
Buffalo - NONE (retired LTIR contract G Bishop)

Vrana is not suspended, he entered the player's assistance program. He gets full pay but removed from the roster.

Either way, I've cancelled my parade reservations.

 

[cjeagle]

Detroit will be 10-15 points ahead of Buffalo at season end and 5-10 points ahead of Ottawa.

***

BTW, interesting injuries for others. Now Toronto lost Muzzin to IR, and Ekblad is out at least a month for Florida.

This is our chance. Take an advantage of it.

Current injuries:
Detroit - W Bertuzzi, W Vrana suspended, (not so important, Walman, Pysyk, Berggren)
Toronto - G Murray, D Muzzin (D Liljegren, D Benn)
Ottawa - G Talbot
Florida - D Ekblad, D Montour, W Duclair
Boston - D McAvoy, LW Marchand, D Grzelcyk
Tampa Bay - C Cirelli, D Bogosian, D Cole suspended
Montreal - D Matheson, D Edmundson, RW Armia, (long-term G Price, W Byron)
Buffalo - NONE (retired LTIR contract G Bishop)

Fabbri is also out due to injury and Vrana is enrolled in the NHL player assistance program for either mental issues or substance abuse. Bertuzzi, Vrana and Fabbri are all top 2 line players so they are a big loss but I think our improved defence amd depth will help us get through this temporary setback.

We also have the 4th lowest salary cap hit in the NHL so Stevie can make the necessary moves via trade if we are contending close to the playoffs.

I am not sure why so many are giving up so early when it is only October.

 

[Henkka]

Update:

Pts%
1. Boston 0.833 (6 games)
2. Detroit 0.800 (5 games)
2. Buffalo 0.800 (5 games)
4. Florida 0.750 (6 games)
----------------
5. Ottawa 0.667 (6 games)
6. Toronto 0.571 (7 games)
8. Montreal 0.500 (6 games)
8. Tampa Bay 0.500 (6 games)

 

[Pavels Dog]

This division is a nightmare.

 

[Henkka]

This division is a nightmare.

Western conference seems to be weak. Only CGY, DAL, COL, STL, and VGK doing well of good teams. Buffalo etc. has been winning lot of western teams.

At total standings 6/16 are from West and 10/16 from East.

One of the "top6" teams from West is Chicago, and that is not gonna last.

 

[Snuggs]

Depends entirely on what we're giving up. No way in hell do I give up a 1st or 2nd to boost a run this season. Ed, Kasper, Cossa are definite no goes. Not really sure what Cross Hanas and a 3rd gets us or if it would be worth the bother.

Well.. He did say absolute STUD. So... Idk if it'd be for just this year.

Depending on who the player is I'm listening. Idk why you wouldn't trade Cossa/Kasper or both if we're talking about the right player.

 

[jkutswings]

Detroit vs Buffalo vs Ottawa for current regular season success? I'll take Irrelevant Minutae for $200, Alex.

Now whenever each of those teams reach playoff contention? The Wings should walk either of those creampuffs in a best-of-seven, and that's all I really care about. Detroit has better defense, better goaltending, and better team grit/motor/size/intangibles.

 

[norrisnick]

Well.. He did say absolute STUD. So... Idk if it'd be for just this year.

Depending on who the player is I'm listening. Idk why you wouldn't trade Cossa/Kasper or both if we're talking about the right player.

Because they are the only goalie and center in our system worth a damn? I'm expecting Kasper to challenge Copp for center #2 as early as this upcoming training camp.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Update:

Pts%
1. Boston 0.833 (6 games)
2. Detroit 0.800 (5 games)
2. Buffalo 0.800 (5 games)
4. Florida 0.750 (6 games)
----------------
5. Ottawa 0.667 (6 games)
6. Toronto 0.571 (7 games)
8. Montreal 0.500 (6 games)
8. Tampa Bay 0.500 (6 games)

The division needs a reshuffle for sure.

Detroit and Buffalo traded to the Metropolitan division for NYR and NYI.

Or...bribe some league officials and have Detroit moved back to the good old central division.

 

[Henkka]

The division needs a reshuffle for sure.

Detroit and Buffalo traded to the Metropolitan division for NYR and NYI.

Or...bribe some league officials and have Detroit moved back to the good old central division.

Imo, it should be like this:

East Div A
----------
BOS vs. New York (3 teams)
TOR vs. BUF
MTL vs. OTT

East Div B
------
DET
CBJ
PIT vs. PHI
TBL vs. FLO
CAR
WSH

Florida is a legit team now, so they don't have to keep TOR/MTL/DET filling their seat on road games.

 

[Gniwder]

The division needs a reshuffle for sure.

Detroit and Buffalo traded to the Metropolitan division for NYR and NYI.

Or...bribe some league officials and have Detroit moved back to the good old central division.

Weak divisions happen, they'll only reshuffle if a division is perennially weak like the old Southeast Division. Funny thing is, those teams have been pretty good after the re-alignment so it worked out well for them.

Imagine a division with Caps, Canes, TBL, and Florida. That would've been a real tough division to win the past 5 years.

 

[Henkka]

It's nowadays much more conference unbalance.

At same conference, it very balanced, there's the wildcard and both Divisions will play 3 times against each other. Only 6 teams face 4 times in the same Division. It's between 3-4 games for all at same conference, very equal. 2 times against another conference.

There was a time when Wings faced a team like Columbus 8 times a year. That was crazy. Nothing like it is nowadays.

 

[Snuggs]

Because they are the only goalie and center in our system worth a damn? I'm expecting Kasper to challenge Copp for center #2 as early as this upcoming training camp.

Well I'll trade both easily if names like Draisaitl pop is all my point was/is. Who cares if either goes if you get that type of quality back.

It seems you are almost suggesting people would move those names for some average 20 goal scorer and no one said that.

 

[norrisnick]

Well I'll trade both easily if names like Draisaitl pop is all my point was/is. Who cares if either goes if you get that type of quality back.

It seems you are almost suggesting people would move those names for some average 20 goal scorer and no one said that.

We don't have the assets for a guy like Drai without basically giving up everything worth a damn. Which makes it a pointless move.

Drai doesn't move without Seider heading the other way.

 

[Henkka]

Nice to see FLO losing for CHI and TBL losing for LAK without single points, when we are having a bad game.