ATLANTA: Thrashing about for answers

[Fourier]

Warning. TMR Alert. Warning.
Warning. TMR Alert. Warning.

Warning. TMR Alert. Warning.
Warning. TMR Alert. Warning.

Take those numbers with a HUGE grain of salt.

All that blog did was take the discredited Team Markeing Report avg ticket price numbers and multiplied by the official announced attendances (tickets distributed, not tickets sold).

Happy thoughts...Only happy thoughts. Deep breath...feel your body relaxing.

 

[pegcity]

If I thought there was any chance that the Oilers were getting revenue sharing I would have no problem admitting it. The NHL CBA gives revenue sharing money to the bottom half of the league. A franchise can be stable, well run and still receive revenue sharing. (See your own Preds as an example.)

And I actually believe that the Oilers did lose money when Laforge made those comments. (though very unlikley that they are losing money now given their payroll and the level of the dollar.) But we're not just pulling this out of the air. We have a lot of data on the revenue side of the equation. In particular, actual leaked gate receipts from which we can still extrapolate a fair bit. And we have played around with these numbers more than a little.

Take a look here:
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=817928

The Oilers did lose $10 million last season, however it is because of the agreement with Rexall place. As Katz said, the Oilers will not be viable if a new arena isn't built.

 

[Fourier]

The Oilers did lose $10 million last season, however it is because of the agreement with Rexall place. As Katz said, the Oilers will not be viable if a new arena isn't built.

Do you have a source for this number? I think it is definitely in dispute. Particularly the $10M figure. The year when they liklely lost the most was 2008-2009. My educated guess might have been $5-8M in that year.

In the end though the tolerance for a possible loss varies fom market to market. I expect that the potential ownership in Winnipeg has a fairly clear idea of the revenues thay need to make sense of the purchase. This may well include an expectation of revenue sharing monies. An NHL team would be part of a larger investment that includes not only the arena but also substantial properties in the vicinity so they may even be content to operate the team at a loss.

 

[The Big Foot]

Where's all the unbased speculation and rumours in here? Disappointed. It seems to be just Oiler fans trying to argue. I guess all the days in between Canuck playoff games is rough on all of us.

 

[pegcity]

Do you have a source for this number? I think it is definitely in dispute. Particularly the $10M figure. The year when they liklely lost the most was 2008-2009. My educated guess might have been $5-8M in that year.

In the end though the tolerance for a possible loss varies fom market to market. I expect that the potential ownership in Winnipeg has a fairly clear idea of the revenues thay need to make sense of the purchase. This may well include an expectation of revenue sharing monies. An NHL team would be part of a larger investment that includes not only the arena but also substantial properties in the vicinity so they may even be content to operate the team at a loss.

I wish I could find the link. I heard Patrick Laforge say it, however it might have been exaggerated by him. (also, by last season I meant 09-10)

 

[Fourier]

I wish I could find the link. I heard Patrick Laforge say it, however it might have been exaggerated by him. (also, by last season I meant 09-10)

The most I heve ever heard as a suggested loss for the oIlers was $7-8M for the 2008-2009 season. From 2008-2009 to 2009-2010 the $cdn rebounded from $.86US to $.95Us which would have reduced their player costs by $5M. They also increased their ticket prices by 5%. This would have meant a positive swing of about $7M. If I had to gues I would say that in 2009-2010 the Oliers were very close to breaking even.

They would certainly not have paid into revenue sharing.

It is questionable how close a team in Winnipeg could come to the revenues generated by the Oilers. I'd guess that they would fall quite a bit short. But this in itself does n ot mean that the owners could not make a go of it. By all accounts Nashville pretty much breaks even on what I guess is substantially less revenue. Their player costs are lower (most years), something that may or may not be true in Winnipeg. And of course the do get revenue sharing, as I suspect Winnipeg would as well.

 

[MaskedSonja]

Happy thoughts...Only happy thoughts. Deep breath...feel your body relaxing.

Kdb on any other subject is unflappable-objective, rational, logical, when I think about people on the business boards who's word I trust, Kdb is at the top of the list....

But mention those three letters "TMR" and kdb starts turning strange shades of purple....


It's all fun KDB, I know how much "TMR" means to you, as in how much it means for you to throw in the shredder and dump like yesterday's trash!

If KDB is TMR isn't worth the time as far as a reference, I listen

 

[MaskedSonja]

So, reading this thread, and articles, seems to be some pretty LOUD noise about Atlanta being relocated (sounds like Winnipeg) for NEXT SEASON?

Can someone give me what the realistic odds on a scale of 1-10 (1 being no change, 10 being pretty much done deal) are right now that Atlanta ends up in the Peg in September? (I'm not asking so much if they are going to move, but are going to move THAT quickly?) Seems to be alot of noise which suggests that-of course that's all that could be-noise.

 

[Chief Ten Bears*]

So, reading this thread, and articles, seems to be some pretty LOUD noise about Atlanta being relocated (sounds like Winnipeg) for NEXT SEASON?

Can someone give me what the realistic odds on a scale of 1-10 (1 being no change, 10 being pretty much done deal) are right now that Atlanta ends up in the Peg in September? (I'm not asking so much if they are going to move, but are going to move THAT quickly?) Seems to be alot of noise which suggests that-of course that's all that could be-noise.

Scale of 1 -10, eh..... 11.

 

[Chief Ten Bears*]

Looks like Kincade is finally giving up on his Balkin crap.

"@JohnKincade John Kincade
NHL sources imploring parties to publicly show interest. I have raised voice for last time asking someone in particular to do so. I tried"

 

[wpgJetsfan]

Looks like Kincade is finally giving up on his Balkin crap.

"@JohnKincade John Kincade
NHL sources imploring parties to publicly show interest. I have raised voice for last time asking someone in particular to do so. I tried"

Yep it appears to be over. TNSE is in negotiations with the Thrasher Owners. I would expect a deal to come out sometime this week.

 

[blues10]

Looks like Kincade is finally giving up on his Balkin crap.

"@JohnKincade John Kincade
NHL sources imploring parties to publicly show interest. I have raised voice for last time asking someone in particular to do so. I tried"

This Balkin charade is finally over. It seems like the NHL will now meet one of its requirements for franchise relocation. No person or group wants to own the Thrashers in Atlanta. I expect this to resolve itself fairly qiuckly. I'll speculate that it will all be over in 10 days.

 

[peter sullivan]

So all along the Balkan really had no interest and kincade was merely badgering him to become interested?

What a brutal way to abuse your public voice. He should be run out of town. How can that charade not damage his career? Did he not consider the emotions of thrashers fans?

Brutal.

 

[Melrose Munch]

So all along the Balkan really had no interest and kincade was merely badgering him to become interested?

What a brutal way to abuse your public voice. He should be run out of town. How can that charade not damage his career? Did he not consider the emotions of thrashers fans?

Brutal.

Pete one thing I can't stand is liars! How do we know he the balkan was even real?

 

[dj4aces]

I don't think his tweet is indicative of anything of the sort, guys.

Then again, no one really knows anything for sure.

 

[ThrasherMinion]

Well, hate to tell you but Atlanta fans are much too mature and much too respectful to kill ourselves or burn another in effigy because a radio guy's hunch did or didn't work out.

Whether it was a diversion for fans or a real stab that went wrong, nobody is going to "hate" on a guy that is pretty damn good to this community.

If YOU chose to spin your life around a TWITTER account then that's your problem.

Kincade has no enemies in the Thrasher fan community. His try was as good as any.

AGAIN, IF YOU HAVEN'T LIVED THE "ASG" EXPERIENCE, then you don't know crap about Atlanta, it's fans, or the Thrashers.

Some folks out there should actually be ashamed of their behavior towards people who live in cities that aren't their own. There are actually some damn fine human beings on the other side of your monitors.
PERIOD. END OF STORY.

 

[MaskedSonja]

So essentially, just like that, this is probably over?

Wow, if so, QUITE the contrast from the Yotes Saga. As someone pointed out though, rather astutely, that this has been "properly" "IE behind closed doors and not permitted to turn into a Soap Opera".

Wow, that's all I can say, wow.

 

[dj4aces]

So essentially, just like that, this is probably over?

Some folks think it is.

Some do not.

No need to count any chickens, when none of the eggs have hatched.

We'll know when it gets reported, not posted on Twitter. Twitter is confusing right now, when everyone has a pulpit.

 

[htpwn]

Looks like Kincade is finally giving up on his Balkin crap.

"@JohnKincade John Kincade
NHL sources imploring parties to publicly show interest. I have raised voice for last time asking someone in particular to do so. I tried"

hockeyuth david
@JohnKincade So the Balkin is out
2 hours ago

JohnKincade John Kincade
@hockeyuth No, but I am done begging for a public reveal which could help the cause and delay action.
2 hours ago via TweetCaster

http://twitter.com/#!/JohnKincade/status/69867023894712322

 

[BrianL*]

Pete one thing I can't stand is liars! How do we know he the balkan was even real?

Because the danger of being found out that it was all a fabrication would pretty much ruin your career as a journalist? I don't for a second question the existence of the Balkan. I also fully respect his decision to not reveal himself until such time as a deal is going forward. Would you want to be known as the knight that failed to save the princess? If things aren't progressing toward a deal, why would you put yourself out there in a bold, public reveal? Other than having an ego an order of magnitude larger than is really needed, and subscribing to the belief that there is no such thing as bad publicity? Like Balsillie...

 

[tarheelhockey]

There are a couple of differences this time:

A> in 10 years MTS Centre will still be serviceable, and not outdated. The established SHED will be generating revenue for the team and ownership. The ownership (barring a miraculous collapse) will still be filthy rich, and will have the incentive of keeping the NHL team to drive SHED revenues.

You have to analyze all the factors to see if history will likely repeat itself. This time, Winnipeg is on much more solid ground.

Again I'm all in favor of Winnipeg as a destination market.

But, we heard praise like the above about Atlanta in the past. They had a dream of an arena deal, making profit almost-automatic and ensuring that they would never be in danger. All they had to do was put a remotely watchable team on the ice, and they would easily survive to become a multi-generation endeavor.

Lo and behold... the economy collapsed, the owners fell through in Hindenburg-like fashion, the arena deal fell through, and against all odds they never so much as won a playoff game. It would all have seemed absurd ("miraculous"?) if predicted in 1999. And it would seem absurd today to suggest that things could go just as horribly wrong in Winnipeg as they did last time. But they could.

Markets run in cycles. Attempting to follow those cycles in an industry that requires 10-20 year startup periods is futile. The wiser thing is to stay put during turbulent times and survive until the next cycle begins. While I acknowledge the stark reality that nothing might save the Thrashers at this point, their relocation would be no wiser today than when the Flames and Jets were moved. It simply perpetuates the problem of having a gaping hole in the league's geography, a hole that will be filled by the next franchise that abandons ship during a down cycle. The fundamental problem doesn't get fixed.

/manifesto

 

[pucka lucka]

Because the danger of being found out that it was all a fabrication would pretty much ruin your career as a journalist? I don't for a second question the existence of the Balkan. I also fully respect his decision to not reveal himself until such time as a deal is going forward. Would you want to be known as the knight that failed to save the princess? If things aren't progressing toward a deal, why would you put yourself out there in a bold, public reveal? Other than having an ego an order of magnitude larger than is really needed, and subscribing to the belief that there is no such thing as bad publicity? Like Balsillie...

Well, Kincade isn't a journalist. He's a radio show host/personality. I am pretty sure he's even said so himself. This whole Balkan thing is so weird.

 

[BrianL*]

Well, Kincade isn't a journalist. He's a radio show host/personality.

That's OK, I would put Gary Lawless in the same category.

 

[Duke749]

And the speculation is reaching new heights.

 

[metalfoot]

In the interest of openness and honesty--- though I live in Manitoba I am *not* stumping for the return of the NHL to Winnipeg (die hard Sens fan).

I really do feel badly for you all and this situation you're in; sounds to me like ASG was about the worst possible ownership you could ask for.

Sorry too that it looks like the Balkan will not reveal himself. I think Atlanta is a much better hockey city than Phoenix/Glendale, and it's sad that it seems to be near an end for you.