ATD 2020 Draft Thread V

[Dreakmur]

Interesting that Jean Béliveau won the Conn Smythe trophy on the losing side. I thought for sure if TDMM won it would give back-to-back Smythes to Guy Lafleur (won it in 2019), but apparently I was wrong.

New Jersey likely split their votes. They had more guys worthy of getting votes, which is likely why they won.

 

[BenchBrawl]

New Jersey likely split their votes. They had more guys worthy of getting votes, which is likely why they won.

Still, Guy Lafleur was much better than anyone on New Jersey, enough that I thought he'd be a lightning rod for votes. Last year, Lafleur was Chicago's 2nd round player and he overwhelmingly won the Smythe!

 

[ResilientBeast]

New Jersey likely split their votes. They had more guys worthy of getting votes, which is likely why they won.

Yeah, Lafleur wasn't my highest guy from NJ.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Feel a lot better about my teams since they lost to the champ and finalist

 

[BenchBrawl]

Interesting that TheDevilMadeMe won the first draft of the 2010's and the first draft of the 2020's. He also won in-between in 2014, and those feel like three very distinct eras.

ATD eras since the annual format:

2010-2011-2012-2013
2014-2015-2016-2017
2018-2019-2020

Those are subjective obviously, but the zeitgeist felt different. I think the ATD peaked in 2010-2013, then maintained itself in 2014-2017, then declined in 2018-2020 but with a resurgence this year.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Great Final! Congrats to both teams, and an extra congrats to TDMM on a 3rd Cup!

 

[Theokritos]

Here's how many ballots each team received in each series, plus comments on the 4-3 series that aren't close according to the ballots bracket.

1) Division Semifinals:

Ottawa Senators – Renfrew Creamery Kings 4-3 / Ballots: 12-4
Comment: A borderline case between 4-3 and 4-2. Half of the voters had Ottawa in less than seven games, the other half had Ottawa in seven or voted Renfrew. Faced with a tie, I went for the closer outcome.

Spokane Canaries – Halifax Mooseheads 4-2 / Ballots: 12-3

Baltimore Skipjacks – NDG Monarchs 4-3 / Ballots: 8-6

Hartford Whalers – St. John's Maple Leafs 3-4 / Ballots: 6-8

New Jersey Devils – Conception Bay Cee Bees 4-3 / Ballots: 10-4
Comment: Another borderline case. Half of the voters had NJ in less than seven games, the other half had NJ in seven or voted Conception Bay. Faced with a tie, I went for the closer outcome.

Bolshoy Ballett – Canadian Soo Marlboros 4-3 / Ballots: 12-2
Comment: 8 voters (out of 14) had the series going to game seven.

Pittsburgh Athletic Club – Corpus Christ Ice Rays 4-2 / Ballots: 11-3

Portland Rosebuds – Chicago Shamrocks 4-3 / Ballots: 11-3
Comment: 9 voters (out of 14) had the series going to game seven.

Winnipeg Victorias – Club de Hockey Quebec 4-3 / Ballots: 8-6

Victoria Cougars – Carolina Hurricanes 4-3 / Ballots: 9-5

Saskatoon Snipers – Valleyfield Braves 4-2 / Ballots: 13-1

Salt Lake City Golden Eagles – Orillia Terriers 3-4 / Ballots: 4-10
Comment: 7 voters had the series going to game seven. 5 voters had Orillia in fewer games, 2 voters had SLC in fewer games.

Chicago Cougars – Kenora Thistles 4-3 / Ballots: 11-3
Comment: 6 voters had the series going to game seven. 5 voters had Chicago in fewer games, 3 voters had Kenora in fewer games.

Montreal Canadiens – North Bay Centennials 4-2 / Ballots: 12-3

New Jersey Swamp Devils – Oakland Skates 4-1 / Ballots: 12-3

St. John's IceCaps – New York Americans 4-3 / Ballots: 8-6


2) Division Finals:

Ottawa Senators – Spokane Canaries 4-3 / Ballots: 8-6

Baltimore Skipjacks – St. John's Maple Leafs 4-3 / Ballots: 10-4
Comment: 9 voters (out of 15) had the series going to game seven.

New Jersey Devils – Bolshoy Ballett 3-4 / Ballots: 7-8

Pittsburgh Athletic Club – Portland Rosebuds 4-2 / Ballots: 11-3

Winnipeg Victorias – Victoria Cougars 3-4 / Ballots: 5-8

Saskatoon Snipers – Orillia Terriers 3-4 / Ballots: 6-8

Chicago Cougars – Montreal Canadiens 4-3 / Ballots: 8-6

New Jersey Swamp Devils – St. John's IceCaps 4-2 / Ballots: 13-1


3) Conference Semifinals:

Baltimore Skipjacks – Bolshoy Ballett 4-3 / Ballots: 11-3
Comment: 8 voters (out of 14) had the series going to game seven.

Ottawa Senators – Pittsburgh Athletic Club 3-4 / Ballots: 6-9

New Jersey Swamp Devils – Victoria Cougars 4-2 / Ballots: 14-1

Chicago Cougars – Orillia Terriers 3-4 / Ballots: 7-8


4) Conference Finals:

Baltimore Skipjacks – Pittsburgh Athletic Club 2-4 / Ballots: 4-10

New Jersey Swamp Devils – Orillia Terriers 4-3 / Ballots: 12-2
Comment: 8 voters (out of 14) had the series going to game seven.


5) ATD Final:

New Jersey Swamp Devils – Pittsburgh Athletic Club 4-3 / Ballots: 11-5
Comment: 9 voters (out of 16) had the series going to game seven.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

3) Conference Semifinals:

Chicago Cougars – Orillia Terriers 3-4 / Ballots: 7-8

Knew this one was close! Good series @Dreakmur

 

[Habsfan18]

Congratulations to @TheDevilMadeMe on another ATD title and to everyone involved in making this such a competitive and enjoyable experience. It was certainly a welcomed distraction over the past few months.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Huge thanks to @BenchBrawl for getting this thing off the ground, and @ImporterExporter for his continued enthusiasm

This was probably the best ATD I've been in, in terms of enthusiasm, discussion and participation.

Edit: Without you two, the draft and this subforum wouldn't nearly what it is.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Really honored to finally win my 3rd Cup. 2014 somehow feels a long time ago, yet not long ago at the same time, if that makes sense. By the way, thanks for looking up the year - for some reason, I always remember that I won in 2010 but can never remember if the other year was 2013 or 2014.

Heading into the playoffs, I felt like this team just - had something special to it - in a way I hadn't really felt since 2014 but obviously that's just my own opinion.

This team almost didn't happen. I had originally intended to play it safe and draft a defenseman (probably Carl Brewer) with my 4th round pick, with the idea that I could put together a defense reminiscent of 60s Toronto: Stanley - Seibert with Brewer anchoring the second pairing - I did end up getting Stanley later on. But in a last minute bout of "liquid courage" while on vacation, I decided that Krutov would look really good playing opposite of Lafleur, and drafted him instead of Brewer. My girlfriend was wondering why I was on my phone for so damn long during this process btw... Clearly the right move, as Krutov looks to have been my best player in the Milt Dunnell Cup finals.

In a way, that makes this win more satisfying, as I think I had been playing it safe the last few years. Also nice to see that other teams that didn't play it safe made it into the final 4.

 

[BenchBrawl]

It is immensely satisfying for me, to see Guy Lafleur win back-to-back ATD championships. For a long time he seemed relegated to a no man's land at the end of the 1st round and you expected whoever picked him to fail to go anywhere, because "soft unidimensional wingers are tough to build around".

Lafleur was a legendary playoff performer and now he has the ATD record to back it up! I'm sure he sleeps better now, I know I do.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Knew this one was close! Good series @Dreakmur

Heading into the playoffs, your Chicago team was my favorite team other than my Swamp Devils team. By the end of your series, I had no idea who I preferred between your team and Dreakmur's Orillia, but that is because I thought more highly of his team, not any lower of yours.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Really honored to finally win my 3rd Cup. 2014 somehow feels a long time ago, yet not long ago at the same time, if that makes sense. By the way, thanks for looking up the year - for some reason, I always remember that I won in 2010 but can never remember if the other year was 2013 or 2014.

Heading into the playoffs, I felt like this team just - had something special to it - in a way I hadn't really felt since 2014 but obviously that's just my own opinion.

This team almost didn't happen. I had originally intended to play it safe and draft a defenseman (probably Carl Brewer) with my 4th round pick, with the idea that I could put together a defense reminiscent of 60s Toronto: Stanley - Seibert with Brewer anchoring the second pairing - I did end up getting Stanley later on. But in a last minute bout of "liquid courage" while on vacation, I decided that Krutov would look really good playing opposite of Lafleur, and drafted him instead of Brewer. My girlfriend was wondering why I was on my phone for so damn long during this process btw... Clearly the right move, as Krutov looks to have been my best player in the Milt Dunnell Cup finals.

In a way, that makes this win more satisfying, as I think I had been playing it safe the last few years. Also nice to see that other teams that didn't play it safe made it into the final 4.

That makes too much sense, I know exactly what you mean

It seems every championship team has an anecdote like this; a crucial juncture, a make-or-break decision. Would be nice to do a write-up about the history of such junctures. Would need the help of past winners.

About playing it safe: It goes back to a discussion we had on the Ovechkin vs. Lafleur(!) thread this week, when I argued it's better to have a player with three great runs and three no-shows, than a player with 6 average runs. Not a perfect analogy, but I always believed if you play it safe you won't win, because a few GMs will take a big risk, and at least one of them is likely to win that bet, skyrocketing the strenght of his team and making it unbeatable for a "safe" team.

I often took big risks, and sometimes they were the main reason for my elimination (thinking of 2016 and Bergeron this year in particular). Sometimes they were the main reason for my victory (not trading with you to secure Vézina in 2013). I know how you feel, it's pretty nice when you put your balls on the table and come away with the victory.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Two time ATD finalist @ImporterExporter

He is definitely now in the category of GMs who have come close to winning a few times and have a great shot at winning it all in the future.

@ImporterExporter . Thanks for the really intense finals series! You were a worthy finalist and were the clear MVP of this ATD in terms of original research.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Junctures that hit my imagination and stuck in my memory from past winners:

2011: Teemu Selanne picked quite late, and of course, Pierre Turgeon and seventieslord's legendary defense of him as his 2nd line center. The Wayne Cashman pick.
2012: I don't remember any; I guess building a Big Three on defense was a bold strategy and it worked. Maybe Brind'Amour?
2013: Not trading up for Vézina and having him fell to me anyway, and getting Jimmy Thomson as my 3D with the saved pick.
2014: Succeeding in extracting all the value of Cowley and Drillon while covering for their weaknesses completely.
2015: Hard to pinpoint any exact decision, but the meta-decision to build a different kind of structure was very very bold.
2016: Picking Brett Hull when he already had Bathgate, than waiting long for his 1LW and 2LW, ultimately getting Krutov and Foyston.
2017: Trading Messier for an upcoming pick with Trottier still on board. Trading up for Geoffrion with no one left to replace him. Picking Brimsek to compensate lost value from bad trades. The Modano and Fredrickson picks. Trading up for Jamie Benn scooping jarek (he was so pissed!).
2018: Drafting two defensemen early (Park and Salming). Stamkos on the 2nd line.
2019: Likewise, drafting two defensemen so early, Kelly and Stevens, and then add Georges Boucher for a great Big Three.

All of this is totally subjective.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Junctures that hit my imagination and stuck in my memory from past winners:

2011: Teemu Selanne picked quite late, and of course, Pierre Turgeon and seventieslord's legendary defense of him as his 2nd line center. The Wayne Cashman pick.
2012: I don't see any; I guess building a Big Three on defense was a bold strategy and it worked.
2013: Not trading up for Vézina and having him fell to me anyway, and getting Jimmy Thomson as my 3D with the saved pick.
2014: Succeeding in extracting all the value of Cowley and Drillon while covering for their weaknesses completely.
2015: Hard to pinpoint any exact decision, but the meta-decision to build a different kind of structure was very very bold.
2016: Picking Brett Hull when he already had Bathgate, than waiting long for his 1LW and 2LW, ultimately getting Krutov and Foyston.
2017: Trading Messier for an upcoming pick with Trottier still on board. Picking Brimsek to compensate lost value from bad trades. The Modano and Fredrickson picks. Trading up for Jamie Benn scooping jarek (he was so pissed!).
2018: Drafting two defensemen early (Park and Salming). Stamkos on the 2nd line.
2019: Likewise, drafting two defensemen so early, Kelly and Stevens, and then add Georges Boucher for a great Big Three.

All of this is totally subjective.

Rob Scuderi's 2015 and 2016 gambles are by far the craziest to me in hindsight. 2016 was highway robbery

 

[ResilientBeast]

I'm going to be interested in seeing what happens to Starshinov and Mayorov's standing in ATD 2021. I was very impressed by the newer information I hadn't really dug into. I remember the info on Starshinov in 2015 hinted at his abilities and skillset. But now we have ATD winning proof.

 

[BenchBrawl]

ATD champions in the playoff era:

ATD#6: Hockey Outsider
ATD#7: pitseleh
ATD#8: Hockey Outsider
ATD#9: pappyline
ATD#10: Sturminator/Transplanted Caper
ATD#11: Sturminator/Evil Speaker
ATD#12: EagleBelfour
ATD2010: TheDevilMadeMe
ATD2011: seventieslord
ATD2012: arrbez
ATD2013: BenchBrawl/Sturminator
ATD2014: TheDevilMadeMe
ATD2015: Rob Scuderi
ATD2016: Rob Scuderi
ATD2017: BenchBrawl
ATD2018: rmartin65
ATD2019: Hawkey Town 18
ATD2020: TheDevilMadeMe

 

[BenchBrawl]

Conveniently, TDMM won with the NJ Swamp Devils, not with the NJ Devils, so that means the Swamp Devils are at 3 championships total as a franchise.

Pittsburgh AC was also challenging for their 3rd title, despite the change in GM.

The Montreal Canadiens are still the winningest franchise in ATD history with 4 titles, with GMs Hockey Outsider, BenchBrawl and Sturminator having participated in those. Obviously this is artificial, but still cool to look at.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Junctures that hit my imagination and stuck in my memory from past winners:

2011: Teemu Selanne picked quite late, and of course, Pierre Turgeon and seventieslord's legendary defense of him as his 2nd line center. The Wayne Cashman pick.
2012: I don't remember any; I guess building a Big Three on defense was a bold strategy and it worked. Maybe Brind'Amour?
2013: Not trading up for Vézina and having him fell to me anyway, and getting Jimmy Thomson as my 3D with the saved pick.
2014: Succeeding in extracting all the value of Cowley and Drillon while covering for their weaknesses completely.
2015: Hard to pinpoint any exact decision, but the meta-decision to build a different kind of structure was very very bold.
2016: Picking Brett Hull when he already had Bathgate, than waiting long for his 1LW and 2LW, ultimately getting Krutov and Foyston.
2017: Trading Messier for an upcoming pick with Trottier still on board. Trading up for Geoffrion with no one left to replace him. Picking Brimsek to compensate lost value from bad trades. The Modano and Fredrickson picks. Trading up for Jamie Benn scooping jarek (he was so pissed!).
2018: Drafting two defensemen early (Park and Salming). Stamkos on the 2nd line.
2019: Likewise, drafting two defensemen so early, Kelly and Stevens, and then add Georges Boucher for a great Big Three.

All of this is totally subjective.

Interesting that TheDevilMadeMe won the first draft of the 2010's and the first draft of the 2020's. He also won in-between in 2014, and those feel like three very distinct eras.

ATD eras since the annual format:

2010-2011-2012-2013
2014-2015-2016-2017
2018-2019-2020

Those are subjective obviously, but the zeitgeist felt different. I think the ATD peaked in 2010-2013, then maintained itself in 2014-2017, then declined in 2018-2020 but with a resurgence this year.

Quoting both of these, since it is relevant to both -

2010 was the end of an era in a sense - it was the last year when winners were largely determined by lopsided trades. Through 2010, there was a tradition where the best teams tended to extract a lot of value from "trading down" to a GM desperate for a particular player. IIRC, the top 4 teams in 2010 were way better than anyone else, and all of them were big into the "trading down" game. My championship winner traded a late 2nd round pick and garbage for what would eventually become 2 3rd round picks - one early (Borje Salming) and one late (Sid Abel), without even sacrificing my 4th round pick (Busher Jackson). My 1st round pick (4th overall) had been Gordie Howe BTW).

GMs who weren't around prior to 2011 have no idea just how out of control trading had become. To even be competitive, you pretty much had to hoard good picks by trading down to a GM desperate for a particular player. I don't even remember who the GM who really wanted my late 2nd got - I think it was a dman only slightly better than Salming.

I believe the "trade committee" bureaucracy was created for ATD 2011.

On the other hand, ATD2011 feels like the end of an era, because that was the absolute peak of the ATD in terms of sheer # of GMs.

___________

IMO, Rob Scuderi's 2016 Champion is probably the single best ATD winner ever, relative the the competition.

His 2015 team though - I think I'm just now finally over the sting of losing to that team on the BS 2nd tiebreak of "3 stars" - freaking Jean Beliveau. Edit: Nevermind, I got two years mixed up in my mind, Rob's Beliveau team didn't win it all.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm going to be interested in seeing what happens to Starshinov and Mayorov's standing in ATD 2021. I was very impressed by the newer information I hadn't really dug into. I remember the info on Starshinov in 2015 hinted at his abilities and skillset. But now we have ATD winning proof.

Someone is going to have to recreate Rob Scuderi's research on Mayorov for us to really know where he falls. Me posting "I remember what he said.." is something, but... not a lot. f***ing server migration.

For Starshinov - I do wonder if he falls closer to Novy and Nedomansky next time.

If we go back to 20-25 teams, Starshinov would probably be a good 3rd liner with his skillset.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

2010 was the end of an era in a sense - it was the last year when winners were largely determined by lopsided trades. Through 2010, there was a tradition where the best teams tended to extract a lot of value from "trading down" to a GM desperate for a particular player.

I don't think I would have enjoyed following along with an ATD decided by who did the more effective job selling the Snake Oil.

This ATD, though- I DID enjoy following along. Thanks to everyone who was willing to trust me with a ballot. As I review The Playoffs, my strike-rate was 85%- including an "all-votes-for-the-winner-except-one" tear in the Round of 16/Quarters/Semis/Final. Maybe I'm getting the hang of this thing...

 

[ResilientBeast]

Honestly excited/interested in @ImporterExporter's auction idea now that the main draft is over, let me know if you need help with anything I'll probably participate. I'm a sucker for a draft

 

[ImporterExporter]

Honestly excited/interested in @ImporterExporter's auction idea now that the main draft is over, let me know if you need help with anything I'll probably participate. I'm a sucker for a draft

@VanIslander as you've inquired as well.

Guys, I'm extremely burnt out. I didn't even plan to be in the ATD this year, then ended up spending 100+ hours on research while running 2 teams and the bulk of the draft. Just don't have anything left at the moment. Hope you can all understand how much effort I put in this year and right now I need a breather haha.

With that being said, I do absolutely plan on doing the auction later this summer. My plan is to have it run until the edge of the holidays. That way everyone gets the winter break (Thanksgiving, Christmas, holiday overseas, etc,) before the 2021 ATD happens.

In the meantime I will bump the auction thread I created back in the winter later today and we can at least get discussion going with everyone who wants to participate. Iron out the details/rules/etc.

Thanks guys!