Artemi Panarin vs Auston Matthews

[Kuznetsnow]

Yet it took Mike Babcock being fired for Matthews to play with some as talented as Mitch Marner.

If only getting a Mitch Marner caliber linemate for Panarin was as simple as firing his shit coach

 

[LeafsNation75]

If only getting a Mitch Marner caliber linemate for Panarin was as simple as firing his **** coach

Maybe Matthews and Marner wanting to play together shows they were right all along that they make each other even better players. Like I have said before Mike Babcock could have done that when he was coaching them and it's something he refused to do.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Matthews because he is much much younger.

 

[JoVel]

Matthews because he is much much younger.

I don't see how Matthews being younger makes him better right now but I'm no hockey expert so I'll take your word for it.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I don't see how Matthews being younger makes him better right now but I'm no hockey expert so I'll take your word for it.

On other poll topics like this I have seen others say they would go with the player who happens to be younger. In this example Matthews is 6 years younger than Panarin, so that's why going forward some people would choose him.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

On other poll topics like this I have seen others say they would go with the player who happens to be younger. In this example Matthews is 6 years younger than Panarin, so that's why going forward some people would choose him.

Well that’s great but that’s not the poll question. I suggest you read the OP.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Well that’s great but that’s not the poll question. I suggest you read the OP.

That's why I also said on other topics similar to this, but it doesn't make what I said any less true.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

That's why I also said on other topics similar to this, but it doesn't make what I said any less true.

Sure it does. It’s irrelevant for this poll. Feel free to make a different poll if you like though.
When asked who is currently better in any poll people don’t take age into account. When asked who you would take moving forward then age is relevant.

 

[MessierII]

Starting a team I’d take Matthews but breadman is better now no question.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Sure it does. It’s irrelevant for this poll. Feel free to make a different poll if you like though.
When asked who is currently better in any poll people don’t take age into account. When asked who you would take moving forward then age is relevant.

That still didn't stop anyone from using age as a factor when selecting Matthews.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

That still didn't stop anyone from using age as a factor when selecting Matthews.

Agreed. Matthews should have fewer votes based on the poll question. Some people just don’t take the time to read the OP.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I don't see how Matthews being younger makes him better right now but I'm no hockey expert so I'll take your word for it.

The OP didn't state right now. I think Matthews is a better hockey player that seems to only be getting better as he's gaining experiences. He is also achieving something Panarin could've only dreamed about at that age.

Kind of like how i think Guentzel is a better player than Kerfoot, but right at this very moment, you'd have to pick Kerfoot as he's the only one who can skate.

But I'll take your word for it, because you seem swell

 

[JoVel]

The OP didn't state right now.

Except that he did. He asked who is better, not who will be better.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Who's better

Right now it’s the breadman

 

[All Mod Cons]

Except that he did. He asked who is better, not who will be better.

Yeah. He said who is better. I'm assuming (could be wrong on my part) that he meant "who's better at hockey".

The answer for me is Matthews. Matthews is better at hockey because he's doing this at such a young age. He's the better player. Once he gets all the experience of a 28 year old NHLer, amd learn what he can and cannot get away with it probably won't be too close.

So my answer is Matthews. Matthews is the better player (again, assuming he meant at hockey, which we have no proof of)

 

[EdJovanovski]

Yeah. He said who is better. I'm assuming (could be wrong on my part) that he meant "who's better at hockey".

The answer for me is Matthews. Matthews is better at hockey because he's doing this at such a young age. He's the better player. Once he gets all the experience of a 28 year old NHLer, amd learn what he can and cannot get away with it probably won't be too close.

So my answer is Matthews. Matthews is the better player (again, assuming he meant at hockey, which we have no proof of)

Meant at water polo

 

[All Mod Cons]

Meant at water polo

That makes it a lot closer. Too close to call imo

 

[canuckking1]

On other poll topics like this I have seen others say they would go with the player who happens to be younger. In this example Matthews is 6 years younger than Panarin, so that's why going forward some people would choose him.

This question isn't really hard

Who's the better player right Now: Panarin

Who would you take going forward over the next 5-6 years: Matthews

The poll is obviously referring to right now hence why many are voting Panarin.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

They don't even really do that.

The idea that Matthews is in any way bad defensively is a fabrication in the minds of those who need something, anything to avoid giving him credit.

What an absolutely terrible, inaccurate generalization. How about you try speaking for just yourself, and not every single person that isn't a super Matthews fanboy?

Matthews, prior to this season, had awful defensive metrics. Among the 339 forwards who played at least 1,500 EV minutes since Matthews joined the league, Matthews had the 17th worst RAPM xGA/60 impact. That's in the 5th percentile.

That was his entire career. Over two standard deviations below average at suppressing expected goals against.

The opinion that Matthews seriously struggled defensively was shared by many, many people; some of whom were actually his biggest fans.



Just because somebody isn't a propagandist doesn't mean that they are psychopaths who "create fabrications" in their mind to "avoid giving him credit". Your post was a major clown post.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What an absolutely terrible, inaccurate generalization.

No, it's pretty spot on. You just bumped a thread that hasn't been posted in for 2 weeks, to respond to my post (that had nothing to do with you) from 3 weeks and like 10 pages ago, to post the same ridiculous chart that you've already posted in this (and every) thread, applying defensive metrics to individuals in problematic ways, while ignoring important context like playing with rookies/mediocre linemates/playing in front of defensively weak defensemen (which have a way bigger impact on defensive metrics), while cherry picking 2 out of a wide range of defensive metrics, while using some random twitter user's opinion as evidence, while excluding this 22-year old's best defensive season, all in an effort to avoid giving Matthews credit. Thank you for proving my point.

I expect to see you in any thread discussing McDavid, Toews, Kopitar, Barkov, Eichel, Mackinnon, Larkin, Aho, Couture, Schiefele, Kane, Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Rantanen, Backstrom, Huberdeau, etc. proclaiming how "horrible defensively" they are, though I hope you can keep your personal attacks to yourself next time.

 

[koyvoo]

Lmao

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

No, it's pretty spot on. You just bumped a thread that hasn't been posted in for 2 weeks, to respond to my post (that had nothing to do with you) from 3 weeks and like 10 pages ago, to post the same ridiculous chart that you've already posted in this (and every) thread, applying defensive metrics to individuals in problematic ways, while ignoring important context like playing with rookies/mediocre linemates/playing in front of defensively weak defensemen (which have a way bigger impact on defensive metrics), while cherry picking 2 out of a wide range of defensive metrics, while using some random twitter user's opinion as evidence, while excluding this 22-year old's best defensive season, all in an effort to avoid giving Matthews credit. Thank you for proving my point.

I expect to see you in any thread discussing McDavid, Toews, Kopitar, Barkov, Eichel, Mackinnon, Larkin, Aho, Couture, Schiefele, Kane, Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Rantanen, Backstrom, Huberdeau, etc. proclaiming how "horrible defensively" they are, though I hope you can keep your personal attacks to yourself next time.

Yet again, you're pretty much wrong on all counts. I don't know why you keep going.

These defensive metrics don't ignore context in problematic ways; you saying that doesn't make it any more true. They use those rookies, mediocre linemates, and defensively weak defensemen as predictor variables in order to isolate a player's impact from their external context. I'm also not cherry picking anything; I have used far more defensive metrics in the past, and Matthews was terrible by all of them. I've also given him credit for his current defensive metrics this season.

Not even close and his defensive metrics are actually quite solid this season.

And in addition, I have highlighted the terrible defensive metrics of many of those players. Here are some examples:

No, it started kicking in as a reaction to substantial evidence that Crosby had become one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL, which went hand in hand with substantial evidence that McDavid had become one of the worst defensive forwards in the NHL.

No, those stats aren’t related to team. They are isolated metrics from a regression model that accounts for teammates. You can argue that they don’t always accurately account for certain team dynamics and I wouldn’t entirely disagree with that but they are supposed to be isolated.

And while the Sharks are a tire fire this year, they were very good in terms of CF% and xGF% over the past 3 years, where Couture was still mediocre from the ages of 26 through 30.

Not that points and plus minus are exactly good stats, but they are showing decline as well. Since the 2017-2018 season, he’s 56th in points per game and a -7. In the 3 years before that, he was 48th in points per game and a +7. Again, I want to emphasize that I don’t care for plus/minus or raw point totals, but you are totally wrong that he hasn’t declined in those areas. Most of all, his 5-on-5 shot rate is in major decline. In 2013-2014, he peaked at 16.92 shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. His shot volume has declined in every single season since then and was 12.23 last season. This season, he’s at 9.8. That is a major decline. Even if you look at just raw shots on goal per game, he’s clearly in decline. He was above 3 shots per game in each of his first 6 full seasons in the league and peaked at 3.58 shots per game in 2013-2014. Now, he’s in steady decline, just below 2.5 shots per game this season, and he was just above 2.5 in each of the past 2 seasons.

You should probably fact check before you post because you got pretty much all of your facts mixed up. The only one you got right is that his shooting percentage hasn’t declined. And while Couture is a great shooter who has had awesome shooting results over the past few seasons, shooting can be influenced pretty heavily by luck, and in Couture’s case I think some favorable shooting luck is actually masking a major dive in effectiveness. He’s not the same player that he once was and he’s very likely to continue declining as he ages, just as almost every player does when they hit their 30s. Sharks fans got spoiled by Burns, Pavelski, and arguably Thornton having career years in their 30s and that was fun but that doesn’t mean that aging curves suddenly don’t exist. They still do and Couture’s isn’t going to be pretty. And Burns has been bad for 2 of 3 years after signing his contract now so it’s not as if he’s immune to decline either.

The bolded is just not true at all. Ask pretty much anybody who heavily centers their opinion around analytics and uses more than just raw points and they will tell you that Meier is significantly better.

I haven't gone into as much detail on the defensive struggles of those players because they were generally not in the 5th percentile of defensive metrics like Matthews and more importantly, they do not have rabid fans such as yourself suggesting that "The idea that (insert player here) is in any way bad defensively is a fabrication in the minds of those who need something, anything to avoid giving him credit."

First and foremost, those kinds of statements tend to get responded to because they make a personal attack against anybody who disagrees with your opinion by saying that they are essentially psychotic for holding a different opinion. Second, there are actually mountains of evidence that support the evidence of those who disagree with you; compared to the ZERO EVIDENCE THAT YOU HAVE EVER PROVIDED REGARDING THIS TOPIC. If somebody on this forum was acting towards one of those players, the way that you do towards Matthews, I probably would have also responded and called them out on it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

These defensive metrics don't ignore context in problematic ways

Yeah, they do. They are pretty much the +/- of "advanced" stats. Not bad for gaining a clearer picture on a team level, but horrible for making judgements about individual players.

They use those rookies, mediocre linemates, and defensively weak defensemen as predictor variables in order to isolate a player's impact from their external context.

No, CA/60 and xGA/60, the stats you posted, do not do that. Ones that try to, don't do it well, which you even admit in one of the posts you quoted. Defensive metrics are far more heavily impacted by the defensemen behind them, and there is no defensive stat that comes close to properly capturing individual defensive impact, especially from forwards.

I'm also not cherry picking anything

You took two out of many defensive metrics, excluded critical context, and excluded his best season.

I've also given him credit for his current defensive metrics this season.

Weird how you didn't mention it at all, and excluded it from your stats.

And in addition, I have highlighted the terrible defensive metrics of many of those players.

Is 3 posts "many"? Especially when one is just boosting your own player? I named like 15 players, and this is like the 50th time for Matthews specifically.

I haven't gone into as much detail on the defensive struggles of those players because they were generally not in the 5th percentile of defensive metrics like Matthews and more importantly, they do not have rabid fans such as yourself suggesting that "The idea that (insert player here) is in any way bad defensively is a fabrication in the minds of those who need something, anything to avoid giving him credit."

All of those players have similar defensive metrics to Matthews, many worse, and have countless dedicated fans. Some of those players are considered some of the best defensive players in the league, or some of the best overall players in the league, and are constantly hailed as such. You have had plenty of opportunities to make the same case regarding other players, if you truly believed in these stats, and plenty of opportunities to realize the extreme limitations of these stats used in this way.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

If you asked 31 GMs today if they had to pick one of the two for their team (ignoring any team needs), who would they pick?

 

[koyvoo]

If you asked 31 GMs today if they had to pick one of the two for their team (ignoring any team needs), who would they pick?

I would say that it depends if they’re thinking very long term or winning now. Pretty sure all would choose Matthews with a long term plan, but I feel most would take Panarin if they want the best impact right now. Panarin right now is just on another level.