Artemi Panarin vs Auston Matthews

[LeafsNation75]

If you asked 31 GMs today if they had to pick one of the two for their team (ignoring any team needs), who would they pick?

If you go by age it's Matthews since he's 6 years younger than Panarin.

 

[QJL]

If you go by age it's Matthews since he's 6 years younger than Panarin.

I don’t think anyone disagrees with you. That is not this poll.

 

[DanM]

I would say that it depends if they’re thinking very long term or winning now. Pretty sure all would choose Matthews with a long term plan, but I feel most would take Panarin if they want the best impact right now. Panarin right now is just on another level.

I wouldn't say on a whole other level, but he has been great. Matthews since the coaching change has been a WHOLE different player, and at freshly 22 has another few levels to go. I would think almost all 31 GM's would pick the young (not even in his prime) C who is looking like he could finish the season with 55-60 goals and 40-45 assists if he stays healthy. I am not even sure how this is debatable.

As for the bread man, he will never be better than he is right now. Players do not hit the prime of their career from 28 onward.

BUT in saying all that, bread has been FANTASTIC and I am a massive fan. He is dominating. One could argue that right now you could go with Bread, but I would like to see where both end up at the end of this year.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I don’t think anyone disagrees with you. That is not this poll.

I was just answering @Rants Mulliniks question and he didn't say age could not be used.

 

[QJL]

I was just answering @Rants Mulliniks question and he didn't say age could not be used.

When a question’s lone verb is the word “is”, the present is assumed. Another adjective, verb, or conjunction needs to be used to adjust the variable of time to a past or future.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Charts you want CHARTS you say well here you go then.



The charts say Matthew's is better RIGHT NOW if that's your basis.

Holy Mackinaw!!

 

[koyvoo]

Charts you want CHARTS you say well here you go then.



The charts say Matthew's is better RIGHT NOW if that's your basis.

Holy Mackinaw!!

Well, although they’re not religion to me, I do enjoy looking into and appreciate the advanced stats game. However, even though Panarin’s are not posted, this if a fine example of why pure numbers and graphs without the context of visuals are sometimes misleading and even useless.

Panarin this season is making things happen virtually every single shift. He’s also playing with Jesper Fast and Ryan Strome for crying out loud. Outside of MacKinnon and McDavid, I don’t think any player in the league has been as impactful this season. Fast is a career 30 pt player and Strome was just about playing himself out of the league before jumping on Panarin’s back.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Charts you want CHARTS you say well here you go then.



The charts say Matthew's is better RIGHT NOW if that's your basis.

Holy Mackinaw!!

Meh. Should've picked Laine.

Member those days? Happy times.

 

[NyQuil]

I answered the poll in terms of who I'd rather have on my team, and I did go with age, so I didn't really answer the poll correctly.

It's pretty close.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

panarin ainec

 

[Vide]

Panarin, not close.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Charts you want CHARTS you say well here you go then.



The charts say Matthew's is better RIGHT NOW if that's your basis.

Holy Mackinaw!!

That Tweet is a week old and the graph on the left is a day older than the Tweet. Matthews is still a little ahead by xGAR but Panarin is currently ahead by GAR and it isn’t close.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Yeah, they do. They are pretty much the +/- of "advanced" stats. Not bad for gaining a clearer picture on a team level, but horrible for making judgements about individual players.

No, CA/60 and xGA/60, the stats you posted, do not do that. Ones that try to, don't do it well, which you even admit in one of the posts you quoted. Defensive metrics are far more heavily impacted by the defensemen behind them, and there is no defensive stat that comes close to properly capturing individual defensive impact, especially from forwards.

You took two out of many defensive metrics, excluded critical context, and excluded his best season.

Weird how you didn't mention it at all, and excluded it from your stats.

Is 3 posts "many"? Especially when one is just boosting your own player? I named like 15 players, and this is like the 50th time for Matthews specifically.

All of those players have similar defensive metrics to Matthews, many worse, and have countless dedicated fans. Some of those players are considered some of the best defensive players in the league, or some of the best overall players in the league, and are constantly hailed as such. You have had plenty of opportunities to make the same case regarding other players, if you truly believed in these stats, and plenty of opportunities to realize the extreme limitations of these stats used in this way.

You don't have any idea what you are talking about. These numbers are not raw CA/60 and xGA/60. They are RAPM CA/60 and xGA/60 which both DO use teammates and opponents as predictor variables in the regularizing/adjustment process. You can read more about it here:

Reviving Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus for Hockey

You can try to criticize it once you actually understand what it is. Until then, just stop making a fool of yourself.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews is still a little ahead by xGAR but Panarin is currently ahead by GAR and it isn’t close.

It's almost like Panarin has a 14.79 ES OISH% or something.

You can try to criticize it once you actually understand what it is.

I do know what it is, and I even addressed it. The problem is, as I said, is it's still not remotely accurate for evaluating the individual defensive impact of a forward. Adding bells and whistles to plus-minus doesn't stop it from being plus-minus. I see there's no response for any of the rest of my post; just more personal attacks.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

It's almost like Panarin has a 14.79 ES OISH% or something.

I do know what it is, and I even addressed it. The problem is, as I said, is it's still not remotely accurate for evaluating the individual defensive impact of a forward. Adding bells and whistles to plus-minus doesn't stop it from being plus-minus. I see there's no response for any of the rest of my post; just more personal attacks.

Lol, calling you out for misusing stats isn’t a “personal attack”. I know being wrong wounds the ego, but cmon. This is taking it to a whole new level.

Just accept you don’t know what you were doing and move on, learn from it.

 

[Machinehead]

RIGHT now, and I mean right now today, Panarin is the best player in hockey.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lol, calling you out for misusing stats isn’t a “personal attack”. Just accept you don’t know what you were doing and move on, learn from it.

As I showed, I did know what I was doing, and I did not misuse any stats; I didn't even use any stats. I was calling out the wrongful use of a stat by another, after his hostile bumping of this thread.
The personal attacks include calling me a "super Matthews fanboy", calling me a "propagandist", calling my post a clown post, and calling me a fool. Those are personal attacks.
Please do not misrepresent the situation, and please do not derail this thread further. This doesn't even have anything to do with you.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

That Tweet is a week old and the graph on the left is a day older than the Tweet. Matthews is still a little ahead by xGAR but Panarin is currently ahead by GAR and it isn’t close.

Maybe you should be more forthcoming?

If we are talking this year why post charts from not this year then?

The fact that the players are fluctuating that much in the charts also is telling.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Well, although they’re not religion to me, I do enjoy looking into and appreciate the advanced stats game. However, even though Panarin’s are not posted, this if a fine example of why pure numbers and graphs without the context of visuals are sometimes misleading and even useless.

Panarin this season is making things happen virtually every single shift. He’s also playing with Jesper Fast and Ryan Strome for crying out loud. Outside of MacKinnon and McDavid, I don’t think any player in the league has been as impactful this season. Fast is a career 30 pt player and Strome was just about playing himself out of the league before jumping on Panarin’s back.

Open that chart, Panarin is in there.

For the poll its close right now, I would learn towards the one who might be the best, if not 2nd best goal scorer in the league right now.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Maybe you should be more forthcoming?

If we are talking this year why post charts from not this year then?

The fact that the players are fluctuating that much in the charts also is telling.

The GAR chart that I posted...in my post that you quoted...is from this year.

They’re also not fluctuating; GAR and xGAR are two different things.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

The GAR chart that I posted...in my post that you quoted...is from this year.

They’re also not fluctuating; GAR and xGAR are two different things.

Oh and My bad I thought we both posted xGar for some reason.

But yeah why post ones from not this year which is what the poll is asking?

 

[Dache]

Lol, calling you out for misusing stats isn’t a “personal attack”. I know being wrong wounds the ego, but cmon. This is taking it to a whole new level.

Just accept you don’t know what you were doing and move on, learn from it.

It always ends up in being accused of personal attacks with certain posters.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Oh and My bad I thought we both posted xGar for some reason.

But yeah why post ones from not this year which is what the poll is asking?

The poll never specified it was this year though. It merely asked “who’s better” in which case prior performance is a useful tool to use in conjunction with current performance, especially when prior performance has a much larger sample.

 

[Dekes For Days]

TIL the best sample is the past 3 years, while excluding the most recent ~50 games.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

TIL the best sample is the past 3 years, while excluding the most recent ~50 games.

Yes, 3 years worth of games is a better sample than 50. I can’t believe you find that hard to understand.