Art Ross Thread Part II: 2018-2019 season

[Rubi]

McDavid won't win it. In order to win the AR you need help from your team mates and McDavid just doesn't get enough help. The Oilers are 20th in league scoring with 144 goals. I think it's between Kuch and Gaudreau. The more goals a team scores per game the higher the probability that a AR candidate will pick up more pts per game. Edmonton scores 2.88 gpg, Tampa scores 4.06, and Cgy scores 3.72.

 

[FDBluth]

You should be. Finnish have no finish. Fact.

Agreed, at what point in hockey history has Finland ever produced any decent goalscorers?

 

[angusyoung]

Agreed, at what point in hockey history has Finland ever produced any decent goalscorers?

Jarri Kurri wasn't a Fin? Selane?

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Jarri Kurri wasn't a Fin? Selane?

Only 600+ goals each?
I guess that's "decent." lol

 

[Coffey]

Yea.. Like a million years ago.

 

[AvsFan29]

Yea.. Like a million years ago.

If you're only considering goals, and nothing else, Laine is pretty good.

 

[FDBluth]

Jarri Kurri wasn't a Fin? Selane?

 

[bobbyking]

Agreed, at what point in hockey history has Finland ever produced any decent goalscorers?

Well you just exposed yourself

 

[ricky0034]

McDavid won't win it. In order to win the AR you need help from your team mates and McDavid just doesn't get enough help. The Oilers are 20th in league scoring with 144 goals. I think it's between Kuch and Gaudreau. The more goals a team scores per game the higher the probability that a AR candidate will pick up more pts per game. Edmonton scores 2.88 gpg, Tampa scores 4.06, and Cgy scores 3.72.

yeah I remember it was a real shame last year when the Oilers were 20th in league scoring and McDavid didn't end up winning

 

[Rubi]

yeah I remember it was a real shame last year when the Oilers were 20th in league scoring and McDavid didn't end up winning

That was a fluke. He got lucky. It won't happen again. He also got more support from his team mates last year.
Last year McDavid either scored or assisted on 47% of the Oilers goals. This year his team support is worse as he has had to either score or assist on 52% of all Oilers goals.

Plus I also wouldn't be surprised to see Draisaitl play less and less on McDavid's line as the season progresses and the Oilers are less likely to be a playoff team. Draisaitl will center his own line more and more. Less Draisaitl means fewer pts for McDavid. Also, if the Oilers ever return to playing Hitch hockey that means the Oilers will score less... which also means McDavid will score less.

 

[Mez]

That was a fluke. He got lucky. It won't happen again. He also got more support from his team mates last year.
Last year McDavid either scored or assisted on 47% of the Oilers goals. This year his team support is worse as he has had to either score or assist on 52% of all Oilers goals.

Plus I also wouldn't be surprised to see Draisaitl play less and less on McDavid's line as the season progresses and the Oilers are less likely to be a playoff team. Draisaitl will center his own line more and more. Less Draisaitl means fewer pts for McDavid. Also, if the Oilers ever return to playing Hitch hockey that means the Oilers will score less... which also means McDavid will score less.

Maybe, maybe not, there was alot of reason he wasn't going to win last season too. McDavid has been keeping up(while the Oilers have been terrible) with Little Johnny and Kuch (both being on red hot teams). If the Oilers go on a bit of a run I dont see why McDavid cant slip by again. Also if the Flames or Lightning cool off a bit then McDavid playing on a consistently cool team will pass by.

Too many games and too many variables left in the season...Its gonna be a fun battle to watch.

 

[Duffalufagus]

My money is on McDavid. Would love to see JH win it but I don’t think that line sustains its pace going forward. Luckily for the Flames, the underperforming secondary scoring is turning it on now. Which is good, because that is what they’ll need to be successful in the playoffs.

So, Kuch or McD. Will be tight this year.

 

[jeffff]

Johnny and Kuch need to keep up their current pace, basically play lights out for the rest of the year. If they slow down at all McDavid will pass them.....just like he caught Mikko.

McDavid hasn’t even even had a hot streak yet. If he does, it’s over.

 

[the mcdavid era]

McDavid won't win it. In order to win the AR you need help from your team mates and McDavid just doesn't get enough help. The Oilers are 20th in league scoring with 144 goals. I think it's between Kuch and Gaudreau. The more goals a team scores per game the higher the probability that a AR candidate will pick up more pts per game. Edmonton scores 2.88 gpg, Tampa scores 4.06, and Cgy scores 3.72.

Lol I guess you get to learn the exact deference between a good player and a generational one.

Guadreau is just a pretender

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

McDavid won't win it. In order to win the AR you need help from your team mates and McDavid just doesn't get enough help. The Oilers are 20th in league scoring with 144 goals. I think it's between Kuch and Gaudreau. The more goals a team scores per game the higher the probability that a AR candidate will pick up more pts per game. Edmonton scores 2.88 gpg, Tampa scores 4.06, and Cgy scores 3.72.

Last year, Connor McDavid won the Art Ross on an Oilers team that was 20th in the league in goals.

But this year, you think Connor McDavid can’t win the Art Ross because he is playing for an Oilers team that is 20th in the league in goals?

 

[Rubi]

Lol I guess you get to learn the exact deference between a good player and a generational one.

Guadreau is just a pretender

Too bad hockey isn't played with one player on a team instead of 23. One player can't do it all.

 

[Rubi]

Last year, Connor McDavid won the Art Ross on an Oilers team that was 20th in the league in goals.

But this year, you think Connor McDavid can’t win the Art Ross because he is playing for an Oilers team that is 20th in the league in goals?

Try reading my explanation in post #60.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Try reading my explanation in post #60.

So you call his prior season a “fluke”, in which he “got lucky”. Why exactly do you say that?

That’s a pretty weak response when you get factually disproven.

 

[Rubi]

So you call his prior season a “fluke”, in which he “got lucky”. Why exactly do you say that?

That’s a pretty weak response when you get factually disproven.

You are obviously suffering from reading comprehension issues. Here... I've cut and pasted my reasons, from my previous post, as to why McDavid is unlikely to repeat as the AR winner..

Last year McDavid either scored or assisted on 47% of the Oilers goals. This year his team support is worse as he has had to either score or assist on 52% of all Oilers goals.

Plus I also wouldn't be surprised to see Draisaitl play less and less on McDavid's line as the season progresses and the Oilers are less likely to be a playoff team. Draisaitl will center his own line more and more. Less Draisaitl means fewer pts for McDavid. Also, if the Oilers ever return to playing Hitch hockey that means the Oilers will score less... which also means McDavid will score less.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You are obviously suffering from reading comprehension issues. Here... I've cut and pasted my reasons, from my previous post, as to why McDavid is unlikely to repeat as the AR winner..

No reading comprehension issues here. None of that explains how last year was a fluke or how he got lucky.

Also, how does McDavid factoring in on a larger percentage of an equally effective offense mean he is going to score less points? The offense now revolves slightly more around him...shouldn’t that mean he will score even more points?

 

[koyvoo]

The flames fans today have become what the Avs fans were a couple months back in this thread.

This is fairly simple. The race is open right now and any of the top 5-6 can win it, but as long as anyone’s smoke size of production is, McDavid’s is still longer. He has to be considered the least likely to fall off of an Art Ross pace, even if the others are unikely as well.

The guy has scored at virtually an Art Ross pace since he was 18 years old and is still there 4 years later. Subjectivity, there is no logical reason why he shouldn’t be still considered the strong favourite.

 

[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

That was a fluke. He got lucky. It won't happen again. He also got more support from his team mates last year.
Last year McDavid either scored or assisted on 47% of the Oilers goals. This year his team support is worse as he has had to either score or assist on 52% of all Oilers goals.

Plus I also wouldn't be surprised to see Draisaitl play less and less on McDavid's line as the season progresses and the Oilers are less likely to be a playoff team. Draisaitl will center his own line more and more. Less Draisaitl means fewer pts for McDavid. Also, if the Oilers ever return to playing Hitch hockey that means the Oilers will score less... which also means McDavid will score less.

Generational players don't get "lucky". But keep thinking it was a fluke.

Just like last year, he'll assert his dominance on the rest of the field and walk away with his 3rd straight Ross while Gaudreau tails off from his career year big time.

 

[GlitchMarner]

That was a fluke. He got lucky.

lol... keep telling yourself that. He won because of ridiculous even strength scoring.

 

[Rubi]

No reading comprehension issues here. None of that explains how last year was a fluke or how he got lucky.

Also, how does McDavid factoring in on a larger percentage of an equally effective offense mean he is going to score less points? The offense now revolves slightly more around him...shouldn’t that mean he will score even more points?

2018 was an aberration from the norm. At the end of the 2017-2018 season the Oilers had scored 21% fewer goals than the league GF leader. Previous to 2018 the highest variance was 14%. The 2018-2019 Oilers are 28% behind the league leader. In order to win the AR you need help from your team mates. McDavid just isn't getting enough help.

2019 – McDavid?? - Oilers have currently scored 28% fewer goals than the league leading team
2018 – McDavid – Oilers scored 21% fewer goals than the league leading team
2017 – McDavid – Oilers scored 12% fewer goals than the league leading team
2016 – Kane – Chicago scored 12% fewer goals than the league leading team
2015 – Benn – Dallas scored 1% fewer goals than the league leading team
2014 – Crosby – Pittsburgh scored 7% fewer goals than the league leading team
2013 – St Louis – Tampa Bay scored 10% fewer goals than the league leading team
2012 – Malkin – Pittsburgh scored 0% fewer goals than the league leading team
2011 – D Sedin – Vancouver scored 0% fewer goals than the league leading team
2010 – H Sedin - Vancouver scored 14% fewer goals than the league leading team
2009 – Malkin – Pittsburgh scored 11% fewer goals than the league leading team
2008 – Ovechkin – Washington scored 8% fewer goals than the league leading team

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

2018 was an aberration from the norm. At the end of the 2017-2018 season the Oilers had scored 21% fewer goals than the league GF leader. Previous to 2018 the highest variance was 14%. The 2018-2019 Oilers are 28% behind the league leader. In order to win the AR you need help from your team mates. McDavid just isn't getting enough help.

2019 – McDavid?? - Oilers have currently scored 28% fewer goals than the league leading team
2018 – McDavid – Oilers scored 21% fewer goals than the league leading team
2017 – McDavid – Oilers scored 12% fewer goals than the league leading team
2016 – Kane – Chicago scored 12% fewer goals than the league leading team
2015 – Benn – Dallas scored 1% fewer goals than the league leading team
2014 – Crosby – Pittsburgh scored 7% fewer goals than the league leading team
2013 – St Louis – Tampa Bay scored 10% fewer goals than the league leading team
2012 – Malkin – Pittsburgh scored 0% fewer goals than the league leading team
2011 – D Sedin – Vancouver scored 0% fewer goals than the league leading team
2010 – H Sedin - Vancouver scored 14% fewer goals than the league leading team
2009 – Malkin – Pittsburgh scored 11% fewer goals than the league leading team
2008 – Ovechkin – Washington scored 8% fewer goals than the league leading team

And at the end of the day, these numbers don't do a great job of predicting McDavid's future scoring trend. That should be obvious to you as soon as you see that he scored 8 more points in 17-18, despite his team dropping 9% lower than the league leader in goals. On top of that, McDavid has Draisaitl, who is a better scoring forward than anybody that Gaudreau has to play with. In fact, they really don't have anything at all to do with whether or not McDavid will win the Art Ross this year. They're actually pretty pointless because McDavid and the Oilers in and of themselves are an aberration where the best player in the NHL is playing on a terrible team.

Meanwhile, you wanna talk about an aberration? Yeah, I'm guessing you do, considering you spam Johnny Gaudreau's name in every single thread. His previous best season was 1.05 points per game. His career points per game was 0.92. Let's compare those two numbers to McDavid and some other prior Art Ross winners.

Season	Player	Previous Career High	Career Average
2018	McDavid	1.22	1.17
2017	McDavid	1.07	1.07
2016	Kane	1.17	0.97
2015	Benn	0.98	0.79
2014	Crosby	1.68	1.41
2013	St. Louis	1.24	0.92
2012	Malkin	1.45	1.19
2011	D Sedin	1.35	0.78
2010	H Sedin	1	0.71
2009	Malkin	1.38	1.19
2008	Ovechkin	1.31	1.21
AVERAGE	AVERAGE	1.26	1.04
(2014-2018)	Gaudreau (pre-2019	1.05	0.92
(2015-2018)	McDavid (pre-2019)	1.32	1.23

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[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The only guys who previously peaked lower than Gaudreau were Benn and Henrik Sedin. Henrik Sedin was legitimately an aberration in terms of his aging curve and production, while Jamie Benn won with 87 points in a very weak year. Gaudreau is notably below the average Art Ross winner in terms of career PPG and career high PPG before the Art Ross season, while McDavid is a little bit above the average in both categories.

Let's look at one more popular test of sustainability - career oiSH%.

Player	Career oiSH%	Previous Career High oiSH%	Current oiSH%
McDavid	10.21%	10.55%	9.72%
Gaudreau	9.40%	10.60%	11.11%

[COLGROUP][COL][/COL] [COL][/COL] [COL][/COL] [COL][/COL] [/COLGROUP]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Crazy enough, McDavid is actually rocking the lowest 5V5 oiSH% of his career, despite shooting percentage being way up. Gaudreau, meanwhile, has an oiSH% well above his career high.

The smart money is on the oiSH% to regress to the mean, which will coincide with their point totals regressing to the mean. The result will be McDavid comfortably winning the Art Ross Award for the 3rd season in a row and doing so while playing for a team whose goals are significantly lower than the league leading's teams goals for the 2nd season in a row. All of your justification to try to convince yourself that Gaudreau will win the Award is silly.

The only real competition that McDavid has is Kucherov and Kucherov is also riding unsustainable trends all around. I'm not 100% certain that McDavid will win the Award because Kucherov is already 5 points ahead of him but I am 100% certain that the top-2 will be Kucherov and McDavid and I've said my piece and you've said yours, so we can just wait until the end of the season to see McDavid prove you wrong.