Unfortunately true.
Most UFA deals (anything 6 years and over, really) almost never work out well for the team. It sucks though. It seems players are getting the money both ways now - paid for projected performance on their second deal, then paid again for past performance on the UFA deal. Something has to give pretty soon.
I wonder if it's the old boy GM network that has to give. It's a pretty exclusive club of very high paying jobs. And I'm kind of thinking it's more the old boy network that is still handing out these deals
NHL teams are pretty much aware of this but they are still ready to play the spending game because if they don't, their rival teams will. There's plenty of teams that would spend more if it was possible but the salary cap limits them so it gives a chance to the "poor teams". Some owners are ready to sacrifice a bit of profit or even pocket a few millions themselves to have a "better chance to win".
It's a playground for billionaires. Many teams are in markets where it's easy to sellout your rink even if the ticket price is high. They also sell a lot of merchandise and have several other important revenues. Roster salary expenditure is not a big deal for them. Example : where I live, they make a lot of profit every year and that's without Evenko who is a money printing machine. They could spend a lot more on their roster and wouldn't blink an eye.
Based on that, several teams are not really scared to burn a few millions there and there. In this case, Zibanejad is 28 y/o, they must think/hope he'll be a great/good contributor at least during the first 5 years. They are ready to risk the last few years because it brings down the AAV NOW... They probably could have gotten him on a 6 years deal instead but that AAV would be much higher
Must be a fun feeling when your favorite team is rich and not scared to burn money. We find these deals "outrageous" but it's also nothing compared to basketball, baseball and football.