Around The NHL Discussion 2019/20 - Part II

[Itsnotatrap]

With Buff maybe retiring, things souring with Laine and Connor still unsigned, things are on the verge of going real sideways in Winnipeg. What a difference a year makes.

Indeed. Luit said both Laine and Rantanen are not close and has said they view Marner as Rantanen’s comparable.

 

[BlueDream]

With Buff maybe retiring, things souring with Laine and Connor still unsigned, things are on the verge of going real sideways in Winnipeg. What a difference a year makes.

It really is crazy. Their Cup window could be closed after 2 years.

Wow.

 

[David Dennison]

Feeling better on betting the under on Jets' point total this season. Their team didn't even look very good with all of those players playing.

 

[Stealth JD]

Indeed. Luit said both Laine and Rantanen are not close and has said they view Marner as Rantanen’s comparable.

whoopty-doo. If Sakic doesn't, then that matters very little. Absent an offer-sheet, Rantanen has no path to $10M/yr if the Avalanche simply refuse to accommodate. Sit or take the best offer. Marner doesn't even come into the discussion.

 

[MissouriMook]

whoopty-doo. If Sakic doesn't, then that matters very little. Absent an offer-sheet, Rantanen has no path to $10M/yr if the Avalanche simply refuse to accommodate. Sit or take the best offer. Marner doesn't even come into the discussion.

Yeah, neither of these guys are arbitration eligible so if they want to play in the NHL this year they have to take what the team will give them. That's how the system works. They can play somewhere else or sit, but they will still have to play for what their team offers them when they decide they want to return to the NHL. They don't get to speed up their arbitration eligibility or unrestricted free agency by holding out.

 

[jura]

 

[542365]

Ahhh yes, must ensure he has spread the cancer to all reaches of the depth chart. Leave no prospect unturned.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

whoopty-doo. If Sakic doesn't, then that matters very little. Absent an offer-sheet, Rantanen has no path to $10M/yr if the Avalanche simply refuse to accommodate. Sit or take the best offer. Marner doesn't even come into the discussion.

Exactly.

Marner is a not comparable case.

Canadian markets are very different.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

whoopty-doo. If Sakic doesn't, then that matters very little. Absent an offer-sheet, Rantanen has no path to $10M/yr if the Avalanche simply refuse to accommodate. Sit or take the best offer. Marner doesn't even come into the discussion.

That’s kinda the point. Winnipeg has problems, and looks like Colorado may too, if Luit is really ready to fight this out. Sakic will use what he has MacKinnon at.

 

[Stealth JD]

That’s kinda the point. Winnipeg has problems, and looks like Colorado may too, if Luit is really ready to fight this out. Sakic will use what he has MacKinnon at.

I think Rantanen is worth more than the other non-Marner RFA that have signed...but by no means is he worth over $10M/yr. I think Sakic is looking at the Draisaitl contract as the comparable, rightfully so, and will get it done for $8.7-ish...but if Rantanen commands $10+ you’ve got to think that the majority of the teams would applaud Sakic for not relenting and simply letting the guy sit. (Not that I think Sakic would care what other teams thought). Toronto didn’t reset the market...GMs around the league are going to illustrate how badly Dubas screwed the pooch and not make the same mistakes. No one player is going to tank a teams Stanley Cup aspirations. I expect the teams to use the leverage they have and not let RFA dictate terms.

I do think more players will follow Trouba’s path to free agency however, and offer-sheets are going to increase as teams learn how to weaponize cap-space.

 

[Blueston]

I think Rantanen is worth more than the other non-Marner RFA that have signed...but by no means is he worth over $10M/yr. I think Sakic is looking at the Draisaitl contract as the comparable, rightfully so, and will get it done for $8.7-ish...but if Rantanen commands $10+ you’ve got to think that the majority of the teams would applaud Sakic for not relenting and simply letting the guy sit. (Not that I think Sakic would care what other teams thought). Toronto didn’t reset the market...GMs around the league are going to illustrate how badly Dubas screwed the pooch and not make the same mistakes. No one player is going to tank a teams Stanley Cup aspirations. I expect the teams to use the leverage they have and not let RFA dictate terms.

I do think more players will follow Trouba’s path to free agency however, and offer-sheets are going to increase as teams learn how to weaponize cap-space.

Unfortunately for Rantanen only teams that can realistically offer sheet him at this point are Anaheim and Ottawa and hard to believe as bad as both look either would give up the picks. Columbus has the cap space but because they dealt their 2nd and 3rd they can only offer sheet at 4 #1s and Rantanen ain’t worth that. Jets have space for offer sheet but then likely won’t be able to sign 1 of Laine or Connor. Anyone else would have to create significant space. And Colorado has most space in league so they can match any offer.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I think Rantanen is worth more than the other non-Marner RFA that have signed...but by no means is he worth over $10M/yr. I think Sakic is looking at the Draisaitl contract as the comparable, rightfully so, and will get it done for $8.7-ish...but if Rantanen commands $10+ you’ve got to think that the majority of the teams would applaud Sakic for not relenting and simply letting the guy sit. (Not that I think Sakic would care what other teams thought). Toronto didn’t reset the market...GMs around the league are going to illustrate how badly Dubas screwed the pooch and not make the same mistakes. No one player is going to tank a teams Stanley Cup aspirations. I expect the teams to use the leverage they have and not let RFA dictate terms.

I do think more players will follow Trouba’s path to free agency however, and offer-sheets are going to increase as teams learn how to weaponize cap-space.

Love it! Well said!

Kyle Dumbass kinda messed up yo.

 

[brokeu91]

I love Petro but ROR really does deserve the C

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Stud.....or ummmm.......cancer

 

[Stealth JD]

I love Petro but ROR really does deserve the C

That’s implying that Petro doesn’t deserve the C, which based on results alone, is preposterous. ROR is thriving without a letter, and though he would absolutely be worthy of one, probably doesn’t need one being as selfless as he is. He’ll be a candidate for Steen’s ‘A’ once that contract is shed.

 

[Spektre]

That’s implying that Petro doesn’t deserve the C, which based on results alone, is preposterous. ROR is thriving without a letter, and though he would absolutely be worthy of one, probably doesn’t need one being as selfless as he is. He’ll be a candidate for Steen’s ‘A’ once that contract is shed.

The best way Steen could show true leadership qualities would be to hand over the A to ROR. At this stage of Steen’s career he’s hanging on. If he didn’t have the salary and NTC he’d be replaced. ROR has a lot more impact on the franchise than Steen. It would be a hell of an honorable thing to do but I don’t expect it.

 

[MissouriMook]

Unfortunately for Rantanen only teams that can realistically offer sheet him at this point are Anaheim and Ottawa and hard to believe as bad as both look either would give up the picks. Columbus has the cap space but because they dealt their 2nd and 3rd they can only offer sheet at 4 #1s and Rantanen ain’t worth that. Jets have space for offer sheet but then likely won’t be able to sign 1 of Laine or Connor. Anyone else would have to create significant space. And Colorado has most space in league so they can match any offer.

Keep in mind that a 7 x $9M offer would still be 4 firsts. If the contract offered is longer than 5 years, compensation is determined by the total contract amount divided by 5 years, in this case $63M / 5 or $12.6M per year. The cutoff for 4 1sts is in the mid-$10M range.

 

[Blueston]

Keep in mind that a 7 x $9M offer would still be 4 firsts. If the contract offered is longer than 5 years, compensation is determined by the total contract amount divided by 5 years, in this case $63M / 5 or $12.6M per year. The cutoff for 4 1sts is in the mid-$10M range.

Right, but he still isn't worth 4 1sts.

 

[MissouriMook]

Right, but he still isn't worth 4 1sts.

Maybe. Maybe not. I would certainly argue he's worth $9M a year for the next 7 years. And to put the 4 1sts in perspective, look at the last few drafts. Would you trade Kieffer Bellows, Josh Norris, Jay O'Brien and Lassi Thompson for him? Because they are the last 4 guys selected 19th overall in the 2016-2019 drafts. To a team that would otherwise be in the basement, he probably isn't worth it. To a team that will end up drafting pretty late with or without him, he might be worth it.

Look at it another way. If you expect to be drafting 20th-25th without a player, do you believe that there is a 25% chance you will find a "diamond in the rough" that ends up being as good of a player as he is in the next 4 drafts? If not, he might be worth the gamble.

 

[Blueston]

Maybe. Maybe not. I would certainly argue he's worth $9M a year for the next 7 years. And to put the 4 1sts in perspective, look at the last few drafts. Would you trade Kieffer Bellows, Josh Norris, Jay O'Brien and Lassi Thompson for him? Because they are the last 4 guys selected 19th overall in the 2016-2019 drafts. To a team that would otherwise be in the basement, he probably isn't worth it. To a team that will end up drafting pretty late with or without him, he might be worth it.

Look at it another way. If you expect to be drafting 20th-25th without a player, do you believe that there is a 25% chance you will find a "diamond in the rough" that ends up being as good of a player as he is in the next 4 drafts? If not, he might be worth the gamble.

I generally agree with your thought process, but I question how good Rantanen is. He is fine player, obviously, but how much of his production is because he has been stapled to the 2nd or 3rd best player in the world? Of the remaining unsigned RFAs, Tkachuk is one I'd be most willing to give up 4 1sts for. Especially if I was already good team and they would be mid-late 1sts. But none of the good teams have much cap space at this point.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Its so refreshing to cheer for a team that is avoiding these RFA dramas. If our biggest hassle was getting a 4th liner signed, its pretty nice.

I realize there are a couple big names for next year, but I have to respect how Armstrong handles the big contracts. And how the Blues' players have behaved around the big contracts too.

 

[Blueston]

Its so refreshing to cheer for a team that is avoiding these RFA dramas. If our biggest hassle was getting a 4th liner signed, its pretty nice.

I realize there are a couple big names for next year, but I have to respect how Armstrong handles the big contracts. And how the Blues' players have behaved around the big contracts too.

I would be quite surprised if Petro makes it to UFA. I have every expectation we will get him resigned prior. Schenn to me is a bit tougher bc Petro's game is likely to age better so need to be extra careful with term on Schenn.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

 

[Oberyn]

Subban has become a lot more likable now that he's not a Pred. I actually really like the Devils roster and they're shaping up to be a very good team as long as they can re-sign Hall.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

If the Blues don't hoist another cup next June, I hope Paddy is.