Around the NHL 2023-2024

[stl76]

Sounds like Chychrun is definitely on the outs in Ottawa. Would be surprised if he isn’t traded this offseason:



Honestly not sure if he’d be a good fit in St. Louis or not, but something to keep an eye on for sure when it comes to the LHD market this summer.

 

[Xerloris]

So he's as far as we know the only top pair LD that's probably going to be available?

 

[Brian39]

I'm really curious what his contract market ill be like.

So much of the value/hype around him as a trade target was the AAV (and at the time term) on his deal. There was also a good chunk of 'think how much better he oculd be with a real NHL lineup around him' baked in to the evaluation of him as a player when he was with Arizona.

He stayed healthy this year, which is a mark in his favor. But I have to think that everything else about his value/reputation has decreased. He played no-doubt top pair minutes for a team that was a defensive disaster and he personally had the worst looking metrics of the top 4. He had good (but not great) production overall and at even strength, so it wasn't like he was good enough offensively to swallow poor defensive play.

I have to think that he isn't eager to sign an extension (with Ottawa or otherwise) without the chance to have a big contract year and improve his value. Ottawa is in a tough spot with him (and in just in general) this summer.

 

[Xerloris]

I'm really curious what his contract market ill be like.

So much of the value/hype around him as a trade target was the AAV (and at the time term) on his deal. There was also a good chunk of 'think how much better he oculd be with a real NHL lineup around him' baked in to the evaluation of him as a player when he was with Arizona.

He stayed healthy this year, which is a mark in his favor. But I have to think that everything else about his value/reputation has decreased. He played no-doubt top pair minutes for a team that was a defensive disaster and he personally had the worst looking metrics of the top 4. He had good (but not great) production overall and at even strength, so it wasn't like he was good enough offensively to swallow poor defensive play.

I have to think that he isn't eager to sign an extension (with Ottawa or otherwise) without the chance to have a big contract year and improve his value. Ottawa is in a tough spot with him (and in just in general) this summer.

How were his metrics compared to say, Leddy? Could he replace Leddy and Leddy then replace Krug?

 

[Brian39]

How were his metrics compared to say, Leddy? Could he replace Leddy and Leddy then replace Krug?

They played very, very different roles, so it is extremely hard to compare them.

Leddy had one of the hardest, most shutdown defensive roles in the NHL this year. He played the 7th most 5 on 5 minutes of all NHL D men with a 36% O-Zone start rate. He played the 6th-most minutes against top competition of all NHL D men (which was 39% of all his minutes). For the 2nd year in a row, he and Parayko had arguably the hardest job of any pairing in the NHL. Despite that, he managed to be the only D man in our top 4 with a positive goal differential at 5 on 5 (+1 while all our other top 4 D were -8 or worse) while all his underlying metrics were right around the rest of the D group. He played 10 minutes on the PP and 212 minutes on the PK and finished the year with 3 goals and 28 assists, with all but 1 point coming at even strength or shorthanded.

Chychrun logged big minutes at 5 on 5 (11th most), but Zub and Sanderson played the shutdown role while Chychrun got deployed in a slightly offensive role and middle-of the road quality of competition. He played about 130 fewer minutes against elite competition as Leddy (which meant only 31% of his minutes were against that top competition). He had positive possession numbers, but they were worse than the rest of Ottawa's top 4 group despite playing an easier role. His goal differential at 5 on 5 was -24, which was by far the worst on the Sens. He played 18 minutes on the PK and 219 minutes on the PP. He finished the year with 14 goals and 41 points, with 16 of those points coming on the PP.

Chychrun's usage was easier than the usage we gave Krug this year. He had better underlying metrics than Krug, but pretty similar results.

There was no proof of concept that Leddy could handle the role we have him in prior to us acquiring him. He has done so much better in the role than I expected. Maybe Chychrun would too. But nothing about his metrics or career so far suggests that he would be a good fit for that role. Realistically, a Chychrun acquisition would likely be a direct replacement to Krug's spot in the lineup right now or a complete overhaul to the way we deploy our D pairs.

Edit: Every time I look at Leddy's stats I am blown away at how well he has played as a shut down D man. He and Parayko have been paired together and handed arguably the league's hardest workload for 180 games now and Leddy is exactly even at 5 on 5. I keep expecting the results to fall off a cliff and they just never do. I don't think his skillset is at all suited to his current role, but he just keeps performing admirably.

 

[Xerloris]

They played very, very different roles, so it is extremely hard to compare them.

Leddy had one of the hardest, most shutdown defensive roles in the NHL this year. He played the 7th most 5 on 5 minutes of all NHL D men with a 36% O-Zone start rate. He played the 6th-most minutes against top competition of all NHL D men (which was 39% of all his minutes). For the 2nd year in a row, he and Parayko had arguably the hardest job of any pairing in the NHL. Despite that, he managed to be the only D man in our top 4 with a positive goal differential at 5 on 5 (+1 while all our other top 4 D were -8 or worse) while all his underlying metrics were right around the rest of the D group. He played 10 minutes on the PP and 212 minutes on the PK and finished the year with 3 goals and 28 assists, with all but 1 point coming at even strength or shorthanded.

Chychrun logged big minutes at 5 on 5 (11th most), but Zub and Sanderson played the shutdown role while Chychrun got deployed in a slightly offensive role and middle-of the road quality of competition. He played about 130 fewer minutes against elite competition as Leddy (which meant only 31% of his minutes were against that top competition). He had positive possession numbers, but they were worse than the rest of Ottawa's top 4 group despite playing an easier role. His goal differential at 5 on 5 was -24, which was by far the worst on the Sens. He played 18 minutes on the PK and 219 minutes on the PP. He finished the year with 14 goals and 41 points, with 16 of those points coming on the PP.

Chychrun's usage was easier than the usage we gave Krug this year. He had better underlying metrics than Krug, but pretty similar results.

There was no proof of concept that Leddy could handle the role we have him in prior to us acquiring him. He has done so much better in the role than I expected. Maybe Chychrun would too. But nothing about his metrics or career so far suggests that he would be a good fit for that role. Realistically, a Chychrun acquisition would likely be a direct replacement to Krug's spot in the lineup right now or a complete overhaul to the way we deploy our D pairs.

Edit: Every time I look at Leddy's stats I am blown away at how well he has played as a shut down D man. He and Parayko have been paired together and handed arguably the league's hardest workload for 180 games now and Leddy is exactly even at 5 on 5. I keep expecting the results to fall off a cliff and they just never do. I don't think his skillset is at all suited to his current role, but he just keeps performing admirably.

I to am in awe of Leddy's performance but I think it's largely due to his skating ability which is phenomenal. If Chychrun had easier usage than Krug and was still underwhelming I'm not sure I'd want to even try him with Parayko.

 

[ezcreepin]

They played very, very different roles, so it is extremely hard to compare them.

Leddy had one of the hardest, most shutdown defensive roles in the NHL this year. He played the 7th most 5 on 5 minutes of all NHL D men with a 36% O-Zone start rate. He played the 6th-most minutes against top competition of all NHL D men (which was 39% of all his minutes). For the 2nd year in a row, he and Parayko had arguably the hardest job of any pairing in the NHL. Despite that, he managed to be the only D man in our top 4 with a positive goal differential at 5 on 5 (+1 while all our other top 4 D were -8 or worse) while all his underlying metrics were right around the rest of the D group. He played 10 minutes on the PP and 212 minutes on the PK and finished the year with 3 goals and 28 assists, with all but 1 point coming at even strength or shorthanded.

Chychrun logged big minutes at 5 on 5 (11th most), but Zub and Sanderson played the shutdown role while Chychrun got deployed in a slightly offensive role and middle-of the road quality of competition. He played about 130 fewer minutes against elite competition as Leddy (which meant only 31% of his minutes were against that top competition). He had positive possession numbers, but they were worse than the rest of Ottawa's top 4 group despite playing an easier role. His goal differential at 5 on 5 was -24, which was by far the worst on the Sens. He played 18 minutes on the PK and 219 minutes on the PP. He finished the year with 14 goals and 41 points, with 16 of those points coming on the PP.

Chychrun's usage was easier than the usage we gave Krug this year. He had better underlying metrics than Krug, but pretty similar results.

There was no proof of concept that Leddy could handle the role we have him in prior to us acquiring him. He has done so much better in the role than I expected. Maybe Chychrun would too. But nothing about his metrics or career so far suggests that he would be a good fit for that role. Realistically, a Chychrun acquisition would likely be a direct replacement to Krug's spot in the lineup right now or a complete overhaul to the way we deploy our D pairs.

Edit: Every time I look at Leddy's stats I am blown away at how well he has played as a shut down D man. He and Parayko have been paired together and handed arguably the league's hardest workload for 180 games now and Leddy is exactly even at 5 on 5. I keep expecting the results to fall off a cliff and they just never do. I don't think his skillset is at all suited to his current role, but he just keeps performing admirably.

Just like Xerloris said, I think he is benefiting A LOT from his skating ability, but I would expect him to do better than others. The biggest issue is that we don't have another RH defenseman to help Parayko out in usage, so he and Leddy are getting smashed with tough competition. Just hearing interviews, it seems like Army is going to try to trade Faulk and Krug if possible, but I would be worried of that if there are no other suitable replacements on both sides of the ice. Last time I checked, Siegenthaler was a great shut down defenseman, so he would be my target on the left side, but the right side I don't have any clue who we would target. Maybe Kessel fits into that role, maybe he regresses, but one thing is certain and that's that we should not count on Kessel to be in the top 4 role. It's possible we are blown away by one of our prospects, but the likely solution is probably a stop gap while they continue to mature. Honestly can't think of the right way to go about this, but it seems like there will be changes to the defense.

 

[Blueston]

I to am in awe of Leddy's performance but I think it's largely due to his skating ability which is phenomenal. If Chychrun had easier usage than Krug and was still underwhelming I'm not sure I'd want to even try him with Parayko.

chyc is the most overrated d in the league. he has great size and shot and always thought to have huge potential, but he isn't good defensively and isn't anything special in transition. he is good 4/5 guy if paired with more responsible partner, but he is gonna get paid like a top pair guy and i want no part of it.

 

[simon IC]

Just like Xerloris said, I think he is benefiting A LOT from his skating ability, but I would expect him to do better than others. The biggest issue is that we don't have another RH defenseman to help Parayko out in usage, so he and Leddy are getting smashed with tough competition. Just hearing interviews, it seems like Army is going to try to trade Faulk and Krug if possible, but I would be worried of that if there are no other suitable replacements on both sides of the ice. Last time I checked, Siegenthaler was a great shut down defenseman, so he would be my target on the left side, but the right side I don't have any clue who we would target. Maybe Kessel fits into that role, maybe he regresses, but one thing is certain and that's that we should not count on Kessel to be in the top 4 role. It's possible we are blown away by one of our prospects, but the likely solution is probably a stop gap while they continue to mature. Honestly can't think of the right way to go about this, but it seems like there will be changes to the defense.

I still think Brett Pesce would be a great upgrade over Faulk.

 

[Blueston]

I still think Brett Pesce would be a great upgrade over Faulk.

even if he is better, why do we want to commit longterm to declining player who won't be much use by time our kids are making impact? signing guys like schenn or faulk to contracts where you assume they won't be worth it last couple years only makes sense when you think you are contender during the value part of the deal. doing it now won't help that much in short term (even if they are as good as we expect), making the overpayment on the backside when we could really use that space harder to take. so unless he will sign for 3 years or less, we don't seem like good fit for him and vice versa.

 

[Shwabeal]

even if he is better, why do we want to commit longterm to declining player who won't be much use by time our kids are making impact? signing guys like schenn or faulk to contracts where you assume they won't be worth it last couple years only makes sense when you think you are contender during the value part of the deal. doing it now won't help that much in short term (even if they are as good as we expect), making the overpayment on the backside when we could really use that space harder to take. so unless he will sign for 3 years or less, we don't seem like good fit for him and vice versa.

People complain about most of the long term deals that Armstrong has given out, and want to ship them out to then....replace them with equally bad contracts? Makes sense.

I'd be surprised if Pesce signs for less than 5 years and most of the Canes fans on the main boards say that his skating has gotten noticeably worse the last two years. And he's not known for his offense, but his counting stats took a nosedive this year.

With Carolina's history with defenseman, them being willing to let him walk with where they're at as an organization makes me want to stay far far away.

 

[PJJJP]

Some interesting playoff matchups. Knights vs Stars, Preds vs Canucks, Lightning vs Panthers, and the classic Leafs vs Bruins

 

[TheDizee]

My first round picks!

DAL/VGK - DAL IN 7
COL/WPG - WPG IN 6
EDM/LA - EDM IN 5
VAN/NSH - NSH IN 6

FLA/TB - FLA IN 5
BOS/TOR - BOS IN 7
WSH/NYR - WSH IN 7
CAR/NYI - CAR IN 5

 

[BrokenFace]

My first round picks!

DAL/VGK - DAL IN 7
COL/WPG - WPG IN 6
EDM/LA - EDM IN 5
VAN/NSH - NSH IN 6

FLA/TB - FLA IN 5
BOS/TOR - BOS IN 7
WSH/NYR - WSH IN 7
CAR/NYI - CAR IN 5

Not a shot at you because everyone does it, but I never understood why people add the amount of games the series will go in their playoffs prediction. If I said DAL/VGK will go Vegas in 4, but you say Dallas in 7, and the series ends up being Vegas in 7, you were clearly more accurate in your prediction of how the series will go but people will treat me like I was right just because I got the team right. If someone predicts a series will go 7, they're saying 6 games isn't enough to separate two teams yet they're still confident they know how game 7 will go? Never made sense to me.

Anyway, I'll take a shot at the first round:

DAL/VGK - DAL
COL/WPG - WPG
EDM/LA - EDM
VAN/NSH - VAN

FLA/TB - FLA
BOS/TOR - TOR
WSH/NYR - NYR
CAR/NYI - CAR

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

DAL/VGK - DAL in 7
COL/WPG - WPG in 7
VAN/NSH - VAN in 6
EDM/LAK - EDM in 5
---
FLA/TB - TB in 7
BOS/TOR - BOS in 6
NYR/WSH - NYR in 5
CAR/NYI - CAR in 4

DAL/WPG - DAL
VAN/EDM - EDM
---
TB/BOS - TB
NYR/CAR - CAR

DAL/EDM - EDM
NYR/CAR - CAR

Stanley Cup Winner: Carolina Hurricanes
Series in BOLD will be the most entertaining of the playoffs.

 

[joe galiba]

my picks


don’t care don’t care don’t care
f*** em all

 

[542365]

I have Dallas, Colorado, Nashville, Edmonton in the West and Florida, Toronto, Rangers, and Carolina in the East. If you’re putting money down, betting the exact opposite of this is likely a winner.

 

[Xerloris]

This Boston announcer for game 1, I think he's their normal pbp guy is f***ing brutal. It's so bad, just the way he talks so slowly, like he has a weird speech impediment. I was informed that's just how Boston people talk so I don't know.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

This Boston announcer for game 1, I think he's their normal pbp guy is f***ing brutal. It's so bad, just the way he talks so slowly, like he has a weird speech impediment. I was informed that's just how Boston people talk so I don't know.

Jack Edwards. He's retiring after this season. Thank god. He's unlistenable.

 

[Blueston]

nyr, car, bos, fla in the east. nash, edm, dal, wpg in the west.

car over nyr, fla over bos, edm over nash, dal over wpg.

dal over fla in the final.

 

[STL fan in MN]

This Boston announcer for game 1, I think he's their normal pbp guy is f***ing brutal. It's so bad, just the way he talks so slowly, like he has a weird speech impediment. I was informed that's just how Boston people talk so I don't know.

He had some sort of neurological issue. But even before then, he was hated by 31 of 32 fanbases. Boston loves him though.

 

[Fez Whatley]

There really is nothing more satisfying than watching the leafs be the leafs every year. It's the best sports tradition I hope never ends.

 

[TheDizee]

1967

 

[TheOrganist]

If Toronto was going to make a run it would have been last year. And that team was still very flawed. Generally speaking it is one of the more poorly constructed rosters to have playoff success.

 

[PocketNines]

What a great day of cooking and 420. Mission accomplished on the NYE game. I missed most of the games but had them on and listening. Now to read some rich, flavorful material: the Leafs GDT

It's interesting because Leafs fans know 100.0000000000% precisely why gathering several all world forwards to complement a mediocre defense is not a winning playoff formula, and Blues fans should know it.