Around the League Thread | Full Arenas Edition

[deckercky]

Really? I guess he stopped using it when he became a GM.

He was a pioneer of analytics before. Gillis actually hired his company back in the day.

Yeah, obviously he could have had different analytics he was relying on, but his moves generally were contrary to what you would expect from one relying heavily on analytics. He made a lot of moves that were more in the vein of 'bringing in a veteran from a winning environment' line of thinking, when the players he brought in were well into their declines if you paid attention to their aging curves.

 

[F A N]

chayka was universally denounced by the analytics community lol

Didn't Gillis pay big money to his company for his analytics work? I remember Benning being criticized here for letting the exclusive deal lapse lol.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Really? I guess he stopped using it when he became a GM.

He was a pioneer of analytics before. Gillis actually hired his company back in the day.

People don't understand how strange this is.

His moves were a stark departure of what he would have done years prior. Nothing seemed to follow his model. The players targeted were busts, overpriced or declining junk, and not cost controlled in any way (Domi for Galchenyuk never made sense. Same with Martinook for Kruger). I always believed the OBC in the league either made his life a living hell and the internal advisors were calling the shots in Phoenix. Something flat out stunk.

 

[4Twenty]

Wasn’t Chaya’s just tasked with creating reports to suit clients? Didnt this regime try and have a pro Markus Granlund report made?

I’m pretty sure this happened and was discussed.

 

[F A N]

Matthews contract would have been fine at that AAV for 8 years based on McDavid and Eichel. 5 years for that amount was ridiculous. If this season is wasted (obviously lots of time to get on track), next season gets tougher due to many expiring contracts (including several RFAs). The team likely loses Rielly and gets no better, and only has two more years until Matthews is UFA.

Right. I did point out that Tavares' contract was a UFA contract and Matthews' comparable was set if he was signing for the same term as Eichel and McDavid. That's why I don't think Tavares' contract impacted Matthews' signing at all.

Marner contract was just a reaction to everyone else being signed to huge contracts - how could they pay their highest scorer substantially less?

You bridge him. Marner's was a record setting deal - the richest RFA deal for a winger and remains so.

 

[Melvin]

Wasn’t Chaya’s just tasked with creating reports to suit clients? Didnt this regime try and have a pro Markus Granlund report made?

I’m pretty sure this happened and was discussed.

I thought it was Brandon Prust, but I remember what you're referring to.

 

[Bubbles]

People don't understand how strange this is.

His moves were a stark departure of what he would have done years prior. Nothing seemed to follow his model. The players targeted were busts, overpriced or declining junk, and not cost controlled in any way (Domi for Galchenyuk never made sense. Same with Martinook for Kruger). I always believed the OBC in the league either made his life a living hell and the internal advisors were calling the shots in Phoenix. Something flat out stunk.

100% agree with you there. The OBC and the rest of the NHL absolutely hated the Chayka hiring. That whole Arizona thing is so weird with it's less than reliable ownership.

Under him the Yotes became the dumping ground for dead contracts like Hossa, Datsyuk and Pronger.

 

[MS]

100% agree with you there. The OBC and the rest of the NHL absolutely hated the Chayka hiring. That whole Arizona thing is so weird with it's less than reliable ownership.

Under him the Yotes became the dumping ground for dead contracts like Hossa, Datsyuk and Pronger.

Taking dead contracts for picks when you're spending nowhere near the cap is one of the few things they did that made sense.

Targeting players like Galchenyuk and Kessel - essentially PP specialists who were unplayably bad at ES - is what made zero sense. There is no way any sort of analytics supported moves like this. Neither did dumping analytics darlings like Martinook.

 

[deckercky]

Wasn’t Chaya’s just tasked with creating reports to suit clients? Didnt this regime try and have a pro Markus Granlund report made?

I’m pretty sure this happened and was discussed.

Honestly, that probably demonstrates a very good understanding of analytics, being able to shift from "here's how this player does under our custom analytics" to "what does this player, who is not favoured by our preferred analytics, do well?".

Chayka should not have been bumped to GM so quickly, but his tenure as GM was always weird as hell given his background.

 

[StreetHawk]

Honestly, that probably demonstrates a very good understanding of analytics, being able to shift from "here's how this player does under our custom analytics" to "what does this player, who is not favoured by our preferred analytics, do well?".

Chayka should not have been bumped to GM so quickly, but his tenure as GM was always weird as hell given his background.

As a sports fan, I would say baseball is the one sport that you can make most decisions based on analytics. Just so much info and more importantly each pitch is the start of a new instance.

I don’t know too much about hockey analytics. But can anyone here truly watch a game and know when something occurs that would result in a positive or negative analytics stat?

 

[F A N]

The idea that McDavid’s deal was meant to be the top deal in the league for the length of it was silly and the only reason it may end up being the case is the pandemic.

That's true but given that Matthews is a contemporary of McDavid's it does make it difficult for Matthews to command more money. At the very least, McDavid and Eichel established the expected range in which Matthews contract should fall under and not Tavares.

 

[Melvin]

As a sports fan, I would say baseball is the one sport that you can make most decisions based on analytics. Just so much info and more importantly each pitch is the start of a new instance.

I don’t know too much about hockey analytics. But can anyone here truly watch a game and know when something occurs that would result in a positive or negative analytics stat?

Yes, although it's often nothing that the player does. If Quinn Hughes takes a shot from the blueline that misses the net by 10 feet while Jason Dickinson is completely out of position, that will for the most part affect Dickinson's "analytics" positively (I hate the term analytics being used in this way, but just playing along.)

This is why most (all?) individual on-ice analytics that are publicly available are worthless in small sample sizes.

 

[StreetHawk]

Yes, although it's often nothing that the player does. If Quinn Hughes takes a shot from the blueline that misses the net by 10 feet while Jason Dickinson is completely out of position, that will for the most part affect Dickinson's "analytics" positively (I hate the term analytics being used in this way, but just playing along.)

This is why most (all?) individual on-ice analytics that are publicly available are worthless in small sample sizes.

Ok. Cause I have no clue what would occur on the ice that would tell me anything about corsi, PDO, or anything like that.

 

[deckercky]

As a sports fan, I would say baseball is the one sport that you can make most decisions based on analytics. Just so much info and more importantly each pitch is the start of a new instance.

I don’t know too much about hockey analytics. But can anyone here truly watch a game and know when something occurs that would result in a positive or negative analytics stat?

Analytics have come a long way in the past 10 years when they were focused on possession. They look at a lot of things, and different systems try to aggregate those into useful complete comparisons. Breaking out of the defensive zone with possession (pass or skate), and clean zone entries, for example, simple events that any fan can recognize which are factored into modern analytics.

 

[deckercky]

Ok. Cause I have no clue what would occur on the ice that would tell me anything about corsi, PDO, or anything like that.

Corsi is net shots on net while you are on the ice. Fenswick is net shot attempts while you are on the ice. PDO is just your team's on ice shooting percentage plus your team's on ice save percentage while you're on the ice. Those would all be considered older analytics.

 

[Melvin]

Ok. Cause I have no clue what would occur on the ice that would tell me anything about corsi, PDO, or anything like that.

Corsi is just glorified +/- except it includes all shot attempts instead of just goals.
PDO is just shooting % for and against. If you face a lot of poor goaltending you will likely have an unsustainable PDO.

 

[Melvin]

Analytics have come a long way in the past 10 years when they were focused on possession. They look at a lot of things, and different systems try to aggregate those into useful complete comparisons. Breaking out of the defensive zone with possession (pass or skate), and clean zone entries, for example, simple events that any fan can recognize which are factored into modern analytics.

While we do have a lot of that data now (zone entries, etc.) I don't necessarily know if we've found a good way to synthesize them.

For the most part the analytics that you see in the wild are at their absolute core still built off Corsi or some form of adjusted Corsi (xG)

 

[AppleHoneySauce]

I really hope they get on ice position tracking sorted. Would be huge in helping refine all other analytics.

 

[Get North]

Holding Mcdavid and Drai to a combined 3 assists in their season opener at home, and clawing out the shootout point is looking pretty good right now… Just saying.

Oilers look good this year.

And we play them Saturday!

 

[4Twenty]

As a sports fan, I would say baseball is the one sport that you can make most decisions based on analytics. Just so much info and more importantly each pitch is the start of a new instance.

I don’t know too much about hockey analytics. But can anyone here truly watch a game and know when something occurs that would result in a positive or negative analytics stat?

How do you know there is more information if you don’t even know what corsi means in 2021?

The last sentence here is just ignorant.



scenario: team a shoots 53 pucks on goal in a game, team b shoots 17…..who carried the play? No need to galaxy brain it because people say “analytics”. All it is is measuring events that occur on the ice. The shot clock has helped fans/pundits tell who was the “better” team since they started tracking them. Same with sv%. Not sure why it’s such a bugaboo for so many.

 

[Melvin]

How do you know there is more information if you don’t even know what corsi means in 2021?

The last sentence here is just ignorant.



scenario: team a shoots 53 pucks on goal in a game, team b shoots 17…..who carried the play? No need to galaxy brain it because people say “analytics”. All it is is measuring events that occur on the ice. The shot clock has helped fans/pundits tell who was the “better” team since they started tracking them. Same with sv%. Not sure why it’s such a bugaboo for so many.

Pet Peeve alert.

It's a bugaboo because people have deliberately made it a bugaboo. People say dumb shit like "Corsi," "Underlying numbers," "analytics," instead of just saying shot +/- because they want it to sound fancier and more complicated than it really is. Nerds love to make things sound as complicated and advanced as possible to make it seem like only they are smart enough to understand it. We always do this and then we wonder why people don't trust the numbers that we cite. It drives me crazy. I hate it when people say "He has good analytics." That means nothing. Nobody in baseball would ever use that sentence ever.

If we would just call it Shot +/- everyone would understand what it is without too much trouble. But then we'd be exposing that it's not fancystats, it's not moneypuck. It's not "advanced analytics." Because, well, it isn't.

 

[4Twenty]

Pet Peeve alert.

It's a bugaboo because people have deliberately made it a bugaboo. People say dumb shit like "Corsi," "Underlying numbers," "analytics," instead of just saying shot +/- because they want it to sound fancier and more complicated than it really is. Nerds love to make things sound as complicated and advanced as possible to make it seem like only they are smart enough to understand it. We always do this and then we wonder why people don't trust the numbers that we cite. It drives me crazy. I hate it when people say "He has good analytics." That means nothing. Nobody in baseball would ever use that sentence ever.

If we would just call it Shot +/- everyone would understand what it is without too much trouble. But then we'd be exposing that it's not fancystats, it's not moneypuck. It's not "advanced analytics." Because, well, it isn't.

I expected street hawk, a daily message board fanatic to know the terms the majority of hockey fanatics on this site use. Especially given he was dismissing them. It’s 2021.

I agree with you about the lingo and that they’re not “analytics”. They’re just measured it on ice events.

I’m not sure what’s predictive and what isn’t and hockey is not baseball I just don’t think discounting information makes sense. Which to me is what “analytics isn’t for hockey” is doing.

Shot attempts is just supposed to be “possession” anyways. The KHL provides individual player o-zone time so hopefully the NHL is close to providing its fans with that info too.

 

[Melvin]

I expected street hawk, a daily message board fanatic to know the terms the majority of hockey fanatics on this site use. Especially given he was dismissing them. It’s 2021.

I agree with you about the lingo and that they’re not “analytics”. They’re just measured it on ice events.

I’m not sure what’s predictive and what isn’t and hockey is not baseball I just don’t think discounting information makes sense. Which to me is what “analytics isn’t for hockey” is doing.

Shot attempts is just supposed to be “possession” anyways. The KHL provides individual player o-zone time so hopefully the NHL is close to providing its fans with that info too.

Yeah, like I said it's just more of a pet peeve of mine. We take something completely basic, call it NIMZOPHAM, and then act confused when people call it hooey. Even the most locked in traditionalists would not recoil in horror at "ANALYTICS" if we simply said, "his goal +/- is -3 but his shot +/- is +10 so maybe he's been a bit unlucky" instead of saying "He HAs GOOD UNDERLYING NUMBERS," whatever in the fluorescent blue f*** that even means.

 

[canuckking1]

I think the leafs biggest problem has been drafting. They haven’t added one drafted impact player since Matthews and without ELC’s their consistently losing depth. Doesn’t help that they’ve traded 3 1st round picks. Kadri,Hyman,JVR,Brown, and Kapenen is a lot of depth that hasn’t really been replaced.

 

[deckercky]

Naming stats after individuals is silly. Corsi should be called shot attempt percentage (SAT%) and Fenswick should be called unblocked shot attempt percentage (USAT%).

But yeah, Corsi and Fenswick are both stats that were easy to track and were useful in approximating actual possession time. They aren't perfect, but they're pretty good at their stated purpose.

Obviously, there is more to hockey than possession.