How many Flames games have you watched? Has Iginla actually looked like the player who has put up a 13% shooting percentage? Are the shots he's taking actually quality shots?
I like advanced stats as much as the next guy but I'm not sold on the fact that shooting more will always equal more goals. It's not quantity it's quality that leads to offense. Is Iginla gonna continue shooting 2.5% this year, not a chance, but he's not looking like the Iginla that everyone knows and praises.
Well, it's early, but let's take a look at a few numbers:
He's getting 4 shots per game on net. This would be his highest average since he scored 50 goals on 338 shots in 2007-2008 (and scored 50 goals).
Shot quality is hard to determine using statistics, and I haven't watched a ton of Flames hockey this year (some, though), but I can tell you that his shot distance normally sits around 29-35 feet at ES, and this year he's at 25.2. His ES SH% has gone down in recent years from 11 to about 8%, but he should still be finding the net on some of these shots. And he will, if he keeps shooting.
He's also missing the net only one in 6 times he shoots, as opposed to the 1 in 3 times he normally misses the net. This could mean he's not shooting for corners, or that he's shooting more accurately, or it could just be statistical noise. It does make me think he probably won't keep shooting at 4 shots per game, but 3.5 is reasonable.
Even as his own ES SH% has regressed in recent seasons, he's seen a steady 10% ES shooting rate on his line. Tanguay helps, too, as he's one of very few non-elite NHL players that seems to have shown a penchant for increasing his linemates ON SH% at ES. Nevertheless, Iginla is a handful, and his line usually scores about 20% more often on ES shots than your typical NHL line would. This year they're ticking along at a paltry 6.67%.
Iginla has probably lost a step defensively, but he's getting 880 ES goaltending right now. That's miserable. As has been said many times, even the very worst defensive players in the NHL probably wouldn't account for an ES SV% dropping below
maybe 900.
For what it's worth -- again, it's early -- Jarome is starting in the O zone 53% of the time and finishing there 60% of the time, which is good. He has a PDO of 947, which is really rotten luck.
I don't doubt that Iginla has lost step: he's 35. But he's been relatively healthy in his career, is a notorious slow starter, and is probably not in the same shape guys that played in Europe are. Despite all this, some of his underlying numbers simply point to really bad luck for him. It's unlikely he's just driven off a cliff here.
Ideally he would be on an elite team's 2nd line and 1st unit PP or on a team with an obvious opening on their top line (/cough Penguins) that he could slot into.
I think the Flames are a bit better than people give them credit for when healthy. They have a reasonable Top 9 (love Hudler/Tanguay on that team for the price), decent but overpaid top 3 defenders, and questionable goaltending.
We'll see what happens, but I'd expect Iginla to score at a 30g/65-70pt pace.
