Around the League 19: And Down the Stretch They Come...OK, Who Hit the Pause Button?

[Brock Anton]

There can't be any way that it's going to be a normal lottery, right? It almost has to be like how it was before where you can only drop max one spot, while you can only move up a max four.

Because I cannot imagine what the reaction would be if, say, Pittsburgh or Edmonton lost in the play-in round and they did the normal lottery and they got #1 overall.

 

[GoldiFox]

There can't be any way that it's going to be a normal lottery, right? It almost has to be like how it was before where you can only drop max one spot, while you can only move up a max four.

Because I cannot imagine what the reaction would be if, say, Pittsburgh or Edmonton lost in the play-in round and they did the normal lottery and they got #1 overall.

NHL to Officially Announce Details Regarding Playoff Format and Draft Lottery

"Since the initial phase of the lottery will take place before the 24-team tournament kicks off, the eight eliminated teams that will be featured will be represented by unassigned picks. The odds for the seven teams not in the tournament will be based on their point percentage for the 2019-20 season. If one of the eight unassigned picks ends up in top three, a second lottery draw will take place to determine which of the eliminated teams will pick there; their odds will be based on the inverse order of their regular season point percentage."

So it looks like speculation is the top-3 is up for grabs. Which is what I'd expect, reportedly the main pushback on the NHL's previous Draft Lottery plan was that the worst teams shouldn't be guaranteed top picks.

 

[HisIceness]

Because I cannot imagine what the reaction would be if, say, Pittsburgh or Edmonton lost in the play-in round and they did the normal lottery and they got #1 overall

This forum will burn to the ground if that happens.

 

[A Star is Burns]

NHL to Officially Announce Details Regarding Playoff Format and Draft Lottery

"Since the initial phase of the lottery will take place before the 24-team tournament kicks off, the eight eliminated teams that will be featured will be represented by unassigned picks. The odds for the seven teams not in the tournament will be based on their point percentage for the 2019-20 season. If one of the eight unassigned picks ends up in top three, a second lottery draw will take place to determine which of the eliminated teams will pick there; their odds will be based on the inverse order of their regular season point percentage."

So it looks like speculation is the top-3 is up for grabs. Which is what I'd expect, reportedly the main pushback on the NHL's previous Draft Lottery plan was that the worst teams shouldn't be guaranteed top picks.

Overall that's a pretty creative solution to make sure that a team that is eliminated in the play in does have a chance at the top picks, and that there won't be any way that a team can win the Cup and the lotto. It also sounds like it takes care of the issue where a team knows it won the lottery and doesn't care about losing their play in series, because you won't know which play in team that lost will represent that pick, should it get picked.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Wow so if the Canes lose to the Rangers they actually have a halfway decent chance of winning the lottery.

Basically they will do the lottery BEFORE the "qualifying round" (the Rangers series), with the 7 teams that don't make it and 8 placeholders, and pick the top 3 teams as usual.

If one of the 8 placeholders wins any of the spots, a second lottery will happen and all 8 teams that lost in the qualifying round will have EQUAL CHANCES at receiving one of those picks. So basically, if a team jumps one of the top 7 spots into the top 3, we have a 12.5% chance to win that pick.

 

[A Star is Burns]

All the plans struck me as fine. Sounds like they hope to get training camps rolling in the first couple weeks of July if at all possible (that's just reading between the lines of camps starting no earlier than July 1).

Again, I think the lottery solution was pretty creative overall. I know the fans of the 7 teams won't be happy if a good team ends up in one of those top 3 spots, but they are getting the best odds as per usual.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Overall that's a pretty creative solution to make sure that a team that is eliminated in the play in does have a chance at the top picks, and that there won't be any way that a team can win the Cup and the lotto. It also sounds like it takes care of the issue where a team knows it won the lottery and doesn't care about losing their play in series, because you won't know which play in team that lost will represent that pick, should it get picked.

I really like it as well. If one or two of those "placeholder" spots win the lottery, it will actually make it pretty exciting either way, whether we beat the Rangers or not.

By making it completely even, it's a (slight) tiered advantage for teams higher in the standings. Chicago actually gets lower odds than before, but hey they get to compete for the playoffs. Pittsburgh (a slam dunk playoff team) now has to compete for a spot, but if it goes wrong they can actually win the lottery with halfway ok odds.

It's not enough to "make it up" to the teams that would've just been in the playoffs no questions asked, but it's still a decent olive branch.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Again, I think the lottery solution was pretty creative overall. I know the fans of the 7 teams won't be happy if a good team ends up in one of those top 3 spots, but they are getting the best odds as per usual.

The fans of those 7 teams have the same odds they would have anyway.

Where it changes is with the Montreals and Chicagos, who get way lower chances.

 

[A Star is Burns]

The fans of those 7 teams have the same odds they would have anyway.

Where it changes is with the Montreals and Chicagos, who get way lower chances.

Yeah, like I said, I agree. But they've been bitching non stop on the main boards about a good team possibly winning. I think this is honestly a way that is pretty fair and unfair to everyone.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Yeah, like I said, I agree. But they've been bitching non stop on the main boards about a good team possibly winning. I think this is honestly a way that is pretty fair and unfair to everyone.

Whoops, my bad, misread the post.

 

[Brock Anton]

Wow so if the Canes lose to the Rangers they actually have a halfway decent chance of winning the lottery.

But on the flip, we also have the chance to be shut out of the 1st round if Toronto loses and their pick wins.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Not gonna lie, the notion that we could follow up the 2018-2019 renaissance season by finishing 6th in the East AND drafting Alexis Lafreniere is pretty nuts.

Does anyone even WANT to win the Cup and just hear about the asterisk for the rest of their lives anyway?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

But on the flip, we also have the chance to be shut out of the 1st round if Toronto loses and their pick wins.

Good point.

 

[DaveG]

She's the Rangers reporter who broke the Skjei trade so I'd guess she has some contacts in the know.

I just hope we get clarification today in Bettman's 4:30PM announcement. On the draft lottery, the draft, the 2 hub cities, and the Playoff schedule. In any case it would be pretty low odds for the Canes to lose their 1st this year. If that happens at least they have Toronto's unprotected 2021 1st to look forward to.

Yep, I'm 1000% calling bullshit on this whole thing.

Not what she is breaking, I completely believe that.

No the bullshit is having f***ing Montreal, Chicago, the Rangers, and whatever other shitass large market teams possibly in the lottery after the playoffs were expanded to 24 to allow them a shot at making it. Either they should be in the playoffs and out of the lottery, or outright f***ing out of the playoffs. No ifs, ands, or f***ing buts about it. Should have just been kept at 16 teams, or at f***ing most, 7-10 and 8-9 3 game play-in series. No, this f***ing league kowtows to the big markets giving teams well on the outside (not so much the Rangers but 100% Chicago and Montreal) a shot at the playoffs, then says "oh no, they'll also have a shot at #1 if they're eliminated in the play-in round". Complete. f***ing. Bullshit.

 

[Wolfpuck]

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Wonder if now that this is announced we can get single game ticket refunds.

 

[Canes]

Meh, the draft lottery is what it is. We fully knew there was a slight possibility we could have no pick this year when we made the Skjei deal and we still did it anyway. Can't get too upset now.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Meh, the draft lottery is what it is. We fully knew there was a slight possibility we could have no pick this year when we made the Skjei deal and we still did it anyway. Can't get too upset now.

Pretty much where I'm at. It's not a deal that I would have made necessarily, but I understand why the did it for a young guy with control. Now, it's just a matter of when we get the picks. We'll get the same number of picks eventually. I'm not going to worry about it too much.

 

[DaveG]

Meh, the draft lottery is what it is. We fully knew there was a slight possibility we could have no pick this year when we made the Skjei deal and we still did it anyway. Can't get too upset now.

Big difference between being 90% sure that the Leafs were going to make the playoffs with a less than 2% chance they win the lottery if they do miss, to being at best 55% that they make the field of 16.

 

[GoldiFox]

To me it mostly boils down to the question of: Would you trade a 3% chance of losing the Canes only 1st round pick this year for a 3% chance of picking #1-3 Overall? I think I'd make that gamble. Especially when they would still get Toronto's 2021 1st. Because Toronto would have to win the Draft lottery for the Canes to not pick in the 1st round which is a 3% chance. And if the Canes can't beat NYR then their own chances of winning that lottery are 3%.

The odds will be clarified once the initial lottery occurs. It could be a lot scarier bumping those odds up to 12.5% with one unnamed winner and even scarier with multiple unnamed winners.

 

[DougieSmash]

As much I would love to draft another franchise player in top 3, man, I''d kill for another playoff run. It's not the same when it's not gonna be in Raleigh but I prefer deep run over quick series with Rags.

 

[Canes]

Big difference between being 90% sure that the Leafs were going to make the playoffs with a less than 2% chance they win the lottery if they do miss, to being at best 55% that they make the field of 16.

True but it took something unprecedented and something we may never seen again to get us to these scenarios. Even then, if Toronto loses it's still quite a long shot for them to win the lottery but you never know I guess.

The only thing I don't really like is that Toronto is playing Columbus. Granted it's not Boston but a somewhat underrated and overlooked Columbus team looks exactly like the type of team that can beat Toronto. I'm pretty much expecting the Leafs to be in the lottery now.

 

[cptjeff]

MrazeksVengeance said: ↑

No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy.​

Svechhammer said: ↑
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

I feel like whether someone quotes Von Moltke the Elder or Mike Tyson is a fairly revealing insight.

 

[hurricure]

Has anyone heard how they are going to handle free agency this year? Contracts that expire on July 4th... they just extending them a month or two?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Has anyone heard how they are going to handle free agency this year? Contracts that expire on July 4th... they just extending them a month or two?

I think that UFA and the draft are delayed until September. I know that the NHLPA agreed to slide their contracts until after the playoffs.