So I've written about preferably avoiding the West winner until the Cup Final, if possible (because they might be eliminated before then), but after some further thought, I'm not so sure that really is realistically possible. I'll try to keep this concise and readable but I can't make any promises, and all scenarios are for if we get to the 3rd round, because it's a pointless thought exercise otherwise. Obviously we have our own challenges in this division still to deal with before then. Anyway...
In order for us to avoid the Avs/Golden Knights winner in the 3rd round, we need(ed) some combination of Pittsburgh, Toronto, and Washington to be eliminated before then. If the two division winners get through, they'll face each other and we face the Western team. If Pittsburgh gets eliminated, we'll face Toronto and the East winner faces the West. If Toronto does, we face Pittsburgh and the Canadian winner faces the West. If all three are eliminated (the Caps obviously already have been), we'll face the East winner with home ice and the Canadian team faces the West, barring a shocking Edmonton comeback at this point (if Edmonton and NYI come through, we'd face the Oilers).
So, if we're the No. 2 seed, either the Jets or Habs face the West winner. Does anybody really see either Canadiæn team winning that matchup? Me neither. The West winner will surely reach the SCF.
If we're the No. 3 seed, that means the West winner could face the Bruins, Islanders, Habs, or Jets. I've already touched on the latter two. The Islanders feel like they'd be overwhelmed though they would battle like always. The Bruins are the one team in that mix who I could see pulling the upset, and that gets us to the part where we talk about 2018 and 2020, how we've generally matched up well against the Bruins come playoff time in recent years, but this Bruins team actually has a legitimate second scoring line, which won't make things easy for us at all, and then there's also just the general problem of having the Boston Bruins playing in the Stanley Cup Final. I'm not writing as a Lightning fan at this point, I'm writing as a general anti-Boston sports fan across all sports. I don't want any Boston team being only four wins away from winning any championship. I've seen them win 12 championships in my life and that's 12 more than I ever cared to see. We would be favorites against the Bruins, yes, but no outcome should come as a surprise. Boston is more than capable of beating us. 2018 and '20 might've been 5-game series, but the close games all seemed to go our way in those matchups. We won all three OT games. Eventually, you'd expect the Bruins to start being on the positive end of some of those close games.
Anyway, there's no reward for making it further in the playoffs before losing. Lose in the 1st round, 3rd round, or Final, you still lost. It actually hurts more if anything the farther you go before falling. The point being, at this point I'm not so sure at all that hoping to avoid Colorado or Las Vegas really is the best way forward at this point. The only way I see it happening is if the Bruins reach the SCF instead, and that's not a preferable alternative. So, at this point, despite what I might've said previously, I think I'm perfectly fine if we end up facing the West winner in the 3rd round after all. And if we get through that, then even better. Neither team is unbeatable, and I would rate us as favorites vs. Las Vegas. It's only the Avs I've ever truly been concerned about from a talent perspective, but there's nothing saying we couldn't beat them, either. It'll just be tough, that's all.