Speculation: Armchair GM Thread VIII - We've Tried Nothing! And we have all kinds of ideas!

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DFF

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The Markstrom hate in here has me absolutely scratching my head. No goalie in this league doesn't let in goals they shouldn't have. None of them. But you look around the league, and what we've had in recent years, and I think the haters are absolutely off their rockers. Is he Vezina winner? No. Is he comfortably top 15 at worst? Absolutely.
I don't hate Markstrom. I just hate it when the Flames was a better team and lost because the other team's goalie was better like the Oilers game and even the Dallas game. There have been more than a few of those.
 

crazyfisherman

Sharangovich fanboy
Sep 22, 2012
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Im very comfortable calling the markstrom a top 15 goalie, hell hes probably close to 10. But how great has he been this year? You can argue that he isnt even having a top 2 seasons from a flames goalie in the last few years. Hiller's and Smith's (before injury) first year put up very good numbers on a team that was just bleeding chances against.
 

Fig

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How impressive are shutouts when allowing barely any chances and less than 25 shots? only shutout that makes you go damn hes good was the pens game. I wont say every other goalies will get 7 but it wont be much less imo. Cant be just looking at number of shutouts but the game as well, how impressive are hattricks when 2 are empty nets. Beyond that, other than the pens game, those shutouts didnt contribute to winning, because we allowed so little and pumped the other goalie. As soon as games are close markstrom often doesnt make the saves needed. So yea, i think hes carried, gets good stats boost from when teams dominate the opposition, avg at best when dont.

Impressive vs what you were saying as an "average" goalie are slightly different things. Markstrom is above average. That's what I was saying. Additionally, you can point at shot suppression, but consider that the Flames are a pretty meh group on paper. Yes, they are suppressing shots, but seemingly, Markstrom is saving a significant amount of the shots he's supposed to. He's not elite tier in terms of snagging extra medium and high risk shots, but he's seemingly damn reliable for the low risk shots.

This is the same complaint I had about Luongo. I hated watching him on team Canada sort of competitions. He literally looked like a Totem pole always in the perfect position.

The Markstrom hate in here has me absolutely scratching my head. No goalie in this league doesn't let in goals they shouldn't have. None of them. But you look around the league, and what we've had in recent years, and I think the haters are absolutely off their rockers. Is he Vezina winner? No. Is he comfortably top 15 at worst? Absolutely.

Agreed. It's one thing when it's hyperbole, but I don't think it's hyperbole when some are saying he's average vs trash. Those posters actually think it IMO.

Perhaps it's splitting hairs to argue it though.

It’s like people think a .920-.930 save percentage goalie is a guy that gets you that exact save percentage game in and game out which is blatantly false. Realistically it’s a goalie that gives you >.950 games more often than they give you <.900 games. Another problem is that Markstrom is very technically sound with great positioning. A lot of people get conditioned to think that goalies who make highlight reel saves are the best, when realistically that’s just a goalie getting caught and saving himself. Markstrom never needs to make the highlight reel save because he almost never gets caught out of position, so people associate that to “not making the big save we need”.

Nevertheless, can you imagine going back 4-5 years and telling a Flames fan that some fans are complaining about having a .923 goaltender.

It's kinda insane that Markstrom being basically the top 3 goalies of our franchise of all time is being crapped on when he's leading the league in shut outs at 7 vs the next two guys at 4 shut outs. We don't have a stacked group in front of him to realistically argue his play is better attributed to the team in front vs his abilities either.

Stylistically, which is subjective, I can understand disliking his style. He's a Luongo type totem pole with good paper stats. His stats also seem to perfectly reflect the team in front of him even if they're not a stacked group either. He's no Ramo or other guys with acrobatic feats of larceny.

I don't hate Markstrom. I just hate it when the Flames was a better team and lost because the other team's goalie was better like the Oilers game and even the Dallas game. There have been more than a few of those.

Well, yes, it sucks their goalie stole the game. However, their goalies get super hot and super cold as well. I'm almost certain those two clubs would rather have a goalie that rarely steals games, but is more consistent. Rather than have a hot/cold goalie that steals the random game, but also gifts more games away to the opposition than he steals.

Markstrom is tied at 8th for total GP. Only 7 have played more games. He's at 11th for total wins. Of the 7 that have played more games, 4 have equal or more wins. It means that 7 goalies have as many or more wins with equal or less games played. Raw save% he's tied at 7th (Husso #1, but played half the games as everyone else).

That essentially means that Markstrom is sitting in the top third of the league. He's far closer to 10th than 16th if we're arguing average.

NHL Goalie Stats 2021-2022

Vladar doesn't show up on the list because he's played less than 14 games. But his raw Sv% of .911 would be in the late 20s to early 30s range for goalies. That's pretty good for a back up. IIRC, that's also significantly better than the backups that sat behind Kipper all those years.

For Dallas, TBH, I'm assuming they're hoping for their steady buy back in Bishop rather than facing the possibility Bishop may have to retire.

Im very comfortable calling the markstrom a top 15 goalie, hell hes probably close to 10. But how great has he been this year? You can argue that he isnt even having a top 2 seasons from a flames goalie in the last few years. Hiller's and Smith's (before injury) first year put up very good numbers on a team that was just bleeding chances against.

Regular season, no. I recall Smith, Ramo, Elliott, Johnson and Hiller and all those other guys having pretty big swings as well (injury and hot/cold). Post season Smith/Hiller and Ramo all stepped up their games with Smiths being the most memorable and there were some serious bed crapping post season moments as well.

Maybe their medium to high risk save% is a wee bit higher, but their overall save% is definitely not in quite the same tier as Markstrom. I quite recall we were often praying for around .911 SV% "average" for the season and were getting instead .90X types of performances and none of them broke .920 for the season.

.918/.879 Hiller .919 ploffs
.911/.910/.909 Ramo .906 ploffs
.910 Elliott .880 ploffs
.916/.898 Smith .917 9loffs
.904 Markstrom .923 current
 
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Bounces R Way

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I'm just happy to be off the starting goalie carousel for the first time in 10 years. Marky may not be perfect but he's brought stability to a position that has been a giant question mark every other month for like forever. Still a little more up and down than you'd probably like for a 6 million dollar goalie but not even close to the bipolar goaltending we've had here before him.

Im very comfortable calling the markstrom a top 15 goalie, hell hes probably close to 10. But how great has he been this year? You can argue that he isnt even having a top 2 seasons from a flames goalie in the last few years. Hiller's and Smith's (before injury) first year put up very good numbers on a team that was just bleeding chances against.

Please tell me you are not pining for Jonas freaking Hiller :laugh:

That 2015-16 season was some of the worst NHL goaltending I've ever seen. Guess we have him in part to thank for Tkachuk though. Markstrom is leading the league in shutouts and has a SV% over .920. Not sure what else we can ask of the guy.
 

crazyfisherman

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Sep 22, 2012
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I'm just happy to be off the starting goalie carousel for the first time in 10 years. Marky may not be perfect but he's brought stability to a position that has been a giant question mark every other month for like forever. Still a little more up and down than you'd probably like for a 6 million dollar goalie but not even close to the bipolar goaltending we've had here before him.



Please tell me you are not pining for Jonas freaking Hiller :laugh:

That 2015-16 season was some of the worst NHL goaltending I've ever seen. Guess we have him in part to thank for Tkachuk though. Markstrom is leading the league in shutouts and has a SV% over .920. Not sure what else we can ask of the guy.
Please tell me how bad you think hiller was hes first year here
 

Bounces R Way

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Please tell me how bad you think hiller was hes first year here

I dunno I guess he was fine? Played well for a 4 million dollar goalie. He was only here 2 years, if half your results are total crap then you weren't that great. There's a reason he didn't get another NHL job.

I will say Hartley's systems were demanding for a goalie definitely, much more so than Sutter's. Markstrom needs 5 more Ws to surpass Hiller's total that season of 26 in 52 starts. His GAA, SV%, and SO totals are all better than Hiller's were.
 

Tkachuk Norris

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Jun 22, 2012
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Markstrom hasn’t been trash. But in close games he certainly has been. That six million will be a bad contract in a year or two.

the best goalie we’ve had in the last 12 years or so was actually Cam Talbot. Now there is a guy who got thrown under the bus for one bad game
 

super6646

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Markstrom hasn’t been trash. But in close games he certainly has been. That six million will be a bad contract in a year or two.

the best goalie we’ve had in the last 12 years or so was actually Cam Talbot. Now there is a guy who got thrown under the bus for one bad game

He pretty much blew game 6 for us, but I'd argue we didn't deserve to win game 3 anyways so eh. It evened out in that regard.

But yes, he has been awful in close games. The last few games have been a good exception, but I can count some pretty big choke jobs he pulled too in the last 5-10 mins of games or he didn't make a big save when need be

(6:19)

(6:38)

(5:32)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3S-JG3L5F8&ab_channel=SPORTSNET (7:00)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wxto9EDeMAs&ab_channel=SPORTSNET (7:23)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ao33GLXomdo&ab_channel=SPORTSNET (7:22)

Not all of these are bad, but man some of the OTs in which he gave up goals against the play, or the choke jobs to Montreal and Edmonton? Man.
 

TheHudlinator

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Nov 21, 2011
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Someones might have better stats but we gave up the 2nd lowest hdca in the league according to natural stat trick
Hdca is a pretty useless stat for goalies imo. Like you can give up 100 high danger chances to Ritchie and he ain't scoring conversely you can give 1 to Draisaitl and he probably going to score

At the end of the day Markstrom has played more than almost all goalies and is still top 10 in both major categories and has given us a chance to win basically every night with little rest
 

Fig

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Dec 15, 2014
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Markstrom hasn’t been trash. But in close games he certainly has been. That six million will be a bad contract in a year or two.

the best goalie we’ve had in the last 12 years or so was actually Cam Talbot. Now there is a guy who got thrown under the bus for one bad game

Maybe my memory is wrong, but wasn't Talbot also always good for one softie a game since the Edmonton days? I also seem to recall you could see the air out of the sail when it happened. Just pure bad mental fortitude.

This is probably more Sutter than ward and Peters, but the mental fortitude is a lot better now. Even if we down, the mental fortitude stays reasonably strong like in the Hartley days. I dunno if it's fair to give more credit to Sutter or Markstrom or equally both, but as mentioned, it does feel like we are finally off the goalie carousel and that feels good.
 

Mobiandi

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Jan 17, 2015
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I wanted Talbot for a long time when Edmonton started to run him into the ground and wanted to tar and feather him.

His performances see-sawed with Rittich but he provided respectable goaltending here and was a huge upgrade on Mike Smith. But in the end, he ruined the best chance this core had for a deep playoff run and then asked for a multi-year extension. The only reason his playoffs here don't live in infamy is because we might have the worst playoff goaltending history across any franchise. Game 6 was bad but games 2 and 4 were huge chokes by him. We got outgoalied by Khudobin while Klingberg and Heiskanen finished as their top point-getters in the series. We would have won that series in 5 if we had 2020 Vancouver Markstrom. And that's why we signed him

That being said, getting married to any goalie long-term is a fool's errand. They're just as disposable as NHL head coaches. If you get more than 3 serviceable years out of them, it's a miracle. I like Markstrom but he hasn't been very good in a while, and if he chokes in the playoffs this year it might spell the end of our core for good
 

Dertell

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Jul 14, 2015
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Markstrom's xGSAA is +4.75 in all situations (+1.45 at full strength) over his past 20 games. Since he started being used as a #1 Goalie in 2017, he has a total xGSAA of +16.38 in all situations and -0.9 in 5-vs-5. He is at best an average goaltender who had a fantastic start to the season.

It's not the end of the world though. While we don't have any real .920 goaltender, Markstrom and Vladar are both better than the .896 they put up for the past 20 games. Hell, there's like four or five contenders this year who can only dream of having above average netminders.
 

DFF

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Feb 28, 2002
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Maybe my memory is wrong, but wasn't Talbot also always good for one softie a game since the Edmonton days? I also seem to recall you could see the air out of the sail when it happened. Just pure bad mental fortitude.

This is probably more Sutter than ward and Peters, but the mental fortitude is a lot better now. Even if we down, the mental fortitude stays reasonably strong like in the Hartley days. I dunno if it's fair to give more credit to Sutter or Markstrom or equally both, but as mentioned, it does feel like we are finally off the goalie carousel and that feels good.
I don't know where you are getting that from. We are definitely more ready to play and put together much stronger effort but we are f***ed when we are down. We haven't had a comeback win until the Dallas game
 

CF Magic

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Jan 30, 2022
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I think Sutter has done a fantastic job preaching the old saying of trusting the process i.e. focusing on just playing well and not the score/result. So when we score first like we have most games of the season, the guys probably get that extra boost of confidence that it's paying off. But the lack of comeback wins might be from the lasting trauma of Ward as the coach? Oh no we're down 1-0 or 2-0, we're finished so let's just give up and stop playing entirely.

Their mental fortitude when trailing needs to improve for sure, but at least when we're winning we don't let off the gas like we have in the past. We just keep firing rubber non stop till the final buzzer.

Edit: This sums it up pretty nicely
640747.jpg
 
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Anglesmith

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I think Sutter has done a fantastic job preaching the old saying of trusting the process i.e. focusing on just playing well and not the score/result. So when we score first like we have most games of the season, the guys probably get that extra boost of confidence that it's paying off. But the lack of comeback wins might be from the lasting trauma of Ward as the coach? Oh no we're down 1-0 or 2-0, we're finished so let's just give up and stop playing entirely.

Their mental fortitude when trailing needs to improve for sure, but at least when we're winning we don't let off the gas like we have in the past. We just keep firing rubber non stop till the final buzzer.
The lack of comebacks appears to be a league wide trend just from my own lazy analysis. Seems like blowouts are way up this year. I'm not sure if the numbers bear that out.
 

Fig

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I don't know where you are getting that from. We are definitely more ready to play and put together much stronger effort but we are f***ed when we are down. We haven't had a comeback win until the Dallas game

I mean it feels like the mental fortitude is stronger and closer to the Hartley days than under Ward/Gully and Peters.

Also, didn't the Blues strike first in the 7-1 thwomping? That's winning after we're down...
 
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TheHudlinator

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I mean it feels like the mental fortitude is stronger and closer to the Hartley days than under Ward/Gully and Peters.

Also, didn't the Blues strike first in the 7-1 thwomping? That's winning after we're down...

The stat that is being referenced I believe was after ending a period trailing we hadn't come back to win until dallas
 

Volica

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May 15, 2012
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I don't know where you are getting that from. We are definitely more ready to play and put together much stronger effort but we are f***ed when we are down. We haven't had a comeback win until the Dallas game

Honestly, I just think this team lacks more finish and the harsh reality of when you’re down; you need big goals… and unless the top line does it, no one else does.
 
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Bert Mckrakken

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Jul 23, 2021
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I just want me some Giroux and Rakall at the deadline. Do whatever you need to, but realistically


Johnny - Lindy - Chucky
Mangy - Giroux - Rakall
Dube - Backlund - Coleman
Loooch - Monny - Lewis

that looks solid af to me. Don’t know if the cap works (prolly not unless some retention) but I read somewhere we have like 7m in capspace at the deadline
 
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Bounces R Way

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So, with Ruzicka not going back down over this break, is it safe to assume he's made the big team?

I really hope he doesn't hit the press box the rest of the year. Kid has some serious potential. Smarts, skill, and size. He's the triple threat.

200.webp


I also want to see him start to impose some physical will. Too many centers with size for this franchise have turned out to be complete marshmellow men. It's a source of constant despair for me. Monahan and Jankowski the big culprits but not the only ones. Sam Bennett I guess we hate players with guts so get rid of him.
 
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