Speculation: Armchair GM Thread Version 974. Or, the boulevard of broken dreams

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Fig

Absolute Horse Shirt
Dec 15, 2014
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How does Postma compare to Engelland style wise?

A lot of the numbers/expected salary look interesting and somewhat along the lines of what we're looking for for a bottom pairing RHD, but PIMs are low and I'm curious of his physicality and "protectionism" attributes.
 

BurnEmUp

Registered User
Feb 27, 2009
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How about Korbinian Holzer for 3rd pairing righty to replace Engelland?

6'3 220lbs, 29 years old

Probably get him for around a million or so.
 

MDCSL

Registered User
Jun 9, 2016
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How about we just offer sheet grubauer? 3x3 costs us a second round pick and Washington can't afford to match it with their cap issues.
 

Tkachuk Norris

Registered User
Jun 22, 2012
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How about we just offer sheet grubauer? 3x3 costs us a second round pick and Washington can't afford to match it with their cap issues.

Weird I just came here to post this. :laugh: I thought earlier we needed our second round pick but now I realize it's a 2018 one that's needed.

Makes so much sense because Orlov is 100% gone in expansion.
 

Fig

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Dec 15, 2014
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I don't think there's much of a friendship after the GlenX trade, so what's a little more bad blood between the two clubs? Idea worth considering.
 

Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
Sep 17, 2012
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I don't think there's much of a friendship after the GlenX trade, so what's a little more bad blood between the two clubs? Idea worth considering.

Why would a trade create bad blood? Trades are mutually agreed-upon. It's hard to imagine a trade causing anything but a positive relationship, unless there is breaking of unwritten or written rules (like not reporting an injury).
 

Fig

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Dec 15, 2014
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Why would a trade create bad blood? Trades are mutually agreed-upon. It's hard to imagine a trade causing anything but a positive relationship, unless there is breaking of unwritten or written rules (like not reporting an injury).

I really meant that part more tongue in check. I forgot the finger emoticon, sorry.
 

BigRangy

Get well soon oliver
Mar 17, 2015
3,408
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Just wondering, what are the odds we lose Kulak to expansion?

If Vegas is interested in taking the best asset available from the Flames, then 100%.

However, I think that they will take 7 or 8 better NHL defensemen than him, and since he would need to clear waivers to play in the AHL, there would be no room for him in the Vegas organization, so I think it's unlikely for him to be claimed.
 

Calculon

unholy acting talent
Jan 20, 2006
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Just wondering, what are the odds we lose Kulak to expansion?

Seemingly low.

They'll be taking a minimum of 9 defenceman and a maximum of 13.

They can only take 10 RFA's.

They're probably not going to have a AHL farm team.

Kulak would need waivers to be sent down the AHL next year anyway.

So, is Kulak one of the 9 best defenceman available? Is he one of the 10 best RFA's available? Does McPhee really think Kulak would be their 7th best (or better) defencemen next season? Is there any other team that would pay McPhee to take Kulak and then trade him to them?

None of those seem likely at all, although I'll admit I haven't done any of the legwork to make sure.

McPhee acknowledged the team was going to be very bad and there was very little in the way of high end talent but they're still going to want to achieve some level of respectability. Which is why Stajan, Bouma and yes, Brouwer will be the top choices from the Flames. Chiasson might have been but he's an RFA too.
 

InfinityIggy

Zagidulin's Dad
Jan 30, 2011
36,087
12,866
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Just wondering, what are the odds we lose Kulak to expansion?

It's the kind of thing that is hard to put a % on, because ultimately all that matters is how Las Vegas views Kulak.

For all we know they could be extremely high on him and aren't bothered by his limited NHL experience.

If I was betting though, I would peg it at 'unlikely'.
 

Lunatik

Registered User
Oct 12, 2012
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They're probably not going to have a AHL farm team.
They are almost certainly going to be affiliated with the Chicago Wolves next year with St. Louis or Colorado being granted an expansion affiliate either this summer or next, if it is next summer talk is they could share an affiliate.
 

Flameshomer

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Aug 26, 2010
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Big fat no to bringing Elliott back under any circumstances. No trust left at all and the fan outcry would just make for a super distracting/****** season any time he slipped even a little bit. The guy is nice, and was even a mediocre level NHL tender for this season, but the relationship is tanked after his ultra weak playoffs.
 

SKRusty

Napalm
Jan 20, 2016
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Just wondering, what are the odds we lose Kulak to expansion?

So Calgary is likely to protect 7 forwards and 3 defensemen.

  1. Monahan
  2. Gaudreau
  3. Bennett
  4. Frolik
  5. Backlund
  6. Lazar
  7. Ferland

  1. Giordano
  2. Hamilton
  3. Brodie

That leaves

Stajan, Bouma, Brouwer, Freddie Hamilton, Chiasson, Bartkowski, Kulak, Wotherspoon, Poirier, Shinkaruk, Vey, and Tom McCollum

Calgary is a young team full of young potential picks where as Teams like LA, Boston, San Jose, Vancouver, Chicago, St. Louis, NYR, Pitt, and Washington are on the older side of things. The Knights will be forced to pick older players from the older teams therefore it is likely Calgary will be losing a younger player.

That leaves F. Hamilton, Chiasson, Kulak, Wotherspoon, Poirier, Shinkaruk, and Vey.

With youth the Knights will be selecting based on potential.

Forward wise that comes down to Chiasson and Shinkaruk. (Personally if I were to pick the potential is in Shinkaruk)

Where defense is concerned it comes down to Kulak and Wotherspoon. (I doubt few would disagree that Kulak is the pick here.)

GM's believe championships are built on Defense. I would say it is 80% likely that Las Vegas picks Kulak.
 

Skobel24

#Ignited
May 23, 2008
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So Calgary is likely to protect 7 forwards and 3 defensemen.

  1. Monahan
  2. Gaudreau
  3. Bennett
  4. Frolik
  5. Backlund
  6. Lazar
  7. Ferland

  1. Giordano
  2. Hamilton
  3. Brodie

That leaves

Stajan, Bouma, Brouwer, Freddie Hamilton, Chiasson, Bartkowski, Kulak, Wotherspoon, Poirier, Shinkaruk, Vey, and Tom McCollum

Calgary is a young team full of young potential picks where as Teams like LA, Boston, San Jose, Vancouver, Chicago, St. Louis, NYR, Pitt, and Washington are on the older side of things. The Knights will be forced to pick older players from the older teams therefore it is likely Calgary will be losing a younger player.

That leaves F. Hamilton, Chiasson, Kulak, Wotherspoon, Poirier, Shinkaruk, and Vey.

With youth the Knights will be selecting based on potential.

Forward wise that comes down to Chiasson and Shinkaruk. (Personally if I were to pick the potential is in Shinkaruk)

Where defense is concerned it comes down to Kulak and Wotherspoon. (I doubt few would disagree that Kulak is the pick here.)

GM's believe championships are built on Defense. I would say it is 80% likely that Las Vegas picks Kulak.

I'm starting to think he'll be safe, actually. Some good points were brought up here. Would Vegas have him as one of their regular 7? I'm not so sure. I'm starting to think it's Brouwer or Shinkaruk.
 

Volica

Papa Shango
May 15, 2012
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I'm starting to think he'll be safe, actually. Some good points were brought up here. Would Vegas have him as one of their regular 7? I'm not so sure. I'm starting to think it's Brouwer or Shinkaruk.

Every team in the NHL has got a guy at Kulak's level or above.
I really doubt he's picked.

They're going to get a few guys around or under 25 that are already established NHL'er just because of how teams are structures (Minny, Washington, Preds, NYI; all are maybes, but all have the potential to lose a good young defender). So a 23 year old current tweener will likely be safe. They're going to need some vets and good youth.

I really can see Vegas taking mostly expiring contracts, some leadership and mostly tweener-top 4/middle 6 guys. They'll build around the draft, and liquidate about as much as possible at the deadline for the next couple seasons as they build on the fly.
 

SKRusty

Napalm
Jan 20, 2016
2,611
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Every team in the NHL has got a guy at Kulak's level or above.
I really doubt he's picked.

They're going to get a few guys around or under 25 that are already established NHL'er just because of how teams are structures (Minny, Washington, Preds, NYI; all are maybes, but all have the potential to lose a good young defender). So a 23 year old current tweener will likely be safe. They're going to need some vets and good youth.

I really can see Vegas taking mostly expiring contracts, some leadership and mostly tweener-top 4/middle 6 guys. They'll build around the draft, and liquidate about as much as possible at the deadline for the next couple seasons as they build on the fly.

Other than some good value contracts Vegas will be very cheap following Toronto's lead in absorbing bad contracts for draft picks after the draft. Hoping Vegas will pick up Stajan's or Brouwer's contracts in the expansion draft are things fantasies are made of.
 

Volica

Papa Shango
May 15, 2012
21,439
11,112
Other than some good value contracts Vegas will be very cheap following Toronto's lead in absorbing bad contracts for draft picks after the draft. Hoping Vegas will pick up Stajan's or Brouwer's contracts in the expansion draft are things fantasies are made of.

They simply cannot do that. They have to pick up a certain amount of cap in both the draft and then to begin the season they have to be cap compliant.

They simply can't pick up 30 900k ELC's and 2 7 million dollar contracts. They just can't. Also, what is Toronto's lead? The 'bad' contract the absorbed was so they could LTIRetire Horton; if anything it's following Chayka's; but there just won't be a lineup to do it.
 

Skobel24

#Ignited
May 23, 2008
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Other than some good value contracts Vegas will be very cheap following Toronto's lead in absorbing bad contracts for draft picks after the draft. Hoping Vegas will pick up Stajan's or Brouwer's contracts in the expansion draft are things fantasies are made of.

Stajan only has one year left. Having them claim him really does nothing. I'd argue it actually hurts the Flames.
 

Calculon

unholy acting talent
Jan 20, 2006
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I get the logic behind not taking Brouwer (even if I don't agree with it), but Stajan? Nah.

Serviceable NHL'ers with expiring contracts have plenty of value at the trade deadline. McPhee's said he plans on building through the draft, so rationally, taking guys like Bouma or Stajan and then flipping them for picks is an obviously savvy move. But maybe too savvy for McPhee, hence Brouwer.

Thing people don't seem to realize with players like Kulak and Shinkaruk is that the only way McPhee takes them is if he really thinks they'll be playing in the NHL next season (or another team pays him to take them for trade purposes; but that's unlikely). Otherwise, if they're waived, there's nothing stopping Calgary from simply reclaiming them, Kulak in particular as he's already shown he can be a competent bottom pairing defenceman. And I'd be very surprised if McPhee couldn't find seven better defencemen from the expansion draft.

And then there's this:
The Las Vegas franchise must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap.
 

MonyontheMoney

Registered User
Apr 5, 2015
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Yes/No.

Moving Grubauer means they have to acquire another player to be backup and to expose. An extra two steps in trades on top of a plethora of guys to sign. Samsonov isn't in NA yet and Washington's other goalies aren't backup calibre yet IIRC. Moving Grubauer adds more work to Washington's side.

Sure we could send McCollum the other way, but then we'd have to sign Chad so we have exposure fodder. That's weird.

What good does paying Grubauer 3M to be a backup do Washington though? It severely hampers their ability to sign anyone of their other FA's.

Frankly, I expect Grubauer to be in Vegas, or any other team besides Washington next year by way of trade after expansion should he go unclaimed. They'd be much better served to use that money on any other position besides backup goalie.
 

Fig

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What good does paying Grubauer 3M to be a backup do Washington though? It severely hampers their ability to sign anyone of their other FA's.

Frankly, I expect Grubauer to be in Vegas, or any other team besides Washington next year by way of trade after expansion should he go unclaimed. They'd be much better served to use that money on any other position besides backup goalie.

I don't see it. I think Orlov or whatever D was supposed to be exposed by Washington is more valuable to Vegas than Grubauer. Grubauer is good, but acquiring D is going to be more difficult than acquiring G.


However I might have confused the timing. Did you mean acquire Grubauer after the expansion draft? I might have interpreted you were saying considering acquiring him before. My mistake if that's the case. Acquiring him after the draft does make sense.
 

MonyontheMoney

Registered User
Apr 5, 2015
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I don't see it. I think Orlov or whatever D was supposed to be exposed by Washington is more valuable to Vegas than Grubauer. Grubauer is good, but acquiring D is going to be more difficult than acquiring G.


However I might have confused the timing. Did you mean acquire Grubauer after the expansion draft? I might have interpreted you were saying considering acquiring him before. My mistake if that's the case. Acquiring him after the draft does make sense.

I do think after makes the most sense. Talking to Caps fans, they seem to think Grubauer holds value being exposed in the hopes it keeps another exposed player safe, even though I agree, Orlov would be the likely pick, and Vegas would look at Colorado for their goalie.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
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Every team in the NHL has got a guy at Kulak's level or above.

If we set out some basic criteria that Kulak falls under, according to Hockey Reference, we only get 22 defensemen who:

1) Were U25 last season (Kulak is 23-111d)
2) played 20+ games last year (kulak played 21)
3) were +1.0% CFRel or better last year (Kulak was +1.7)
4) were 60% OZS or less last year (Kulak was 45%)

Player|GP|CF% rel▼|PDO|oZS%
Dougie Hamilton|81|6.9|99.6|47.7
Zach Werenski|78|6.2|101.1|55.4
Hampus Lindholm|66|5.7|100.8|47.6
Fredrik Claesson|33|5.3|100.5|57
Damon Severson|80|4.3|97|54.6
Brett Pesce|82|3.9|101.3|48.2
Brady Skjei|80|3.9|102.1|58.8
Scott Mayfield|25|3.1|99.8|55.7
Seth Jones|75|3.0|99|53.9
Connor Carrick|67|2.9|100.8|58.8
Jaccob Slavin|82|2.5|101|47.4
Troy Stecher|71|2.4|99.1|51.2
Justin Faulk|75|2.3|97.1|55.7
Aaron Ekblad|68|2.1|96.5|59.7
Martin Marincin|25|2.1|101.5|45.3
Matt Benning|62|2.0|101|56.7
Josh Morrissey|82|1.8|100.4|48.4
Brett Kulak|21|1.7|98.7|45.7
Anthony DeAngelo|39|1.5|97.3|56.5
Stephen Johns|61|1.2|96.6|45.8
Colton Parayko|81|1.2|100.7|49.6
Connor Murphy|77|1.0|98.5|41.5

Now from that list, we can further parse:

1) Parayko, Pesce, Slavin, DeAngelo, Werenski, Benning, Morrissey, Skjei, and Stecher as exempt from the 2017 expansion draft.

2) Ekblad, Jones, Faulk, Hamilton, Murphy, Johns, Severson and Lindholm as draft protection-list no-brainers.

3) One of Carrick or Marincin as protectable under a 7-3-1 by Toronto as they are only really looking at protecting Gardiner/Rielly.

4) Kulak, Mayfield, Claesson, (the other of Carrick/Marincin) as the last four players remaining.

So, no. Four teams in the NHL have got a guy at Kulak's level or above with consideration for age, for the purposes of exposure to the expansion draft. The Flames, the Islanders, the Leafs, and the Senators.

Further, you could parse Mayfield, Claesson, and Carrick out of the "final five" even further if you cared about OZS%, as all three of those guys were sitting at 55%+ compared to Kulak's 45%. I didn't bother, but maybe some consideration would be paid to how all this parsing basically leaves us with Marincin and Kulak, and Kulak is two years younger than Marincin.

Is that a whole lot of hoops to jump through to prove a point that ignores the human element of the expansion draft (rawr... needs more grit and less offensive ability to qualify as a much needed "shutdown D"!!)?

Sure. Maybe. But I think it's enough to suggest you retract the idea that every team has a Kulak they'll be exposing.
 
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