Speculation: Armchair GM Thread Version 974. Or, the boulevard of broken dreams

[Tkachuk Norris]

Kulak has high potential. The rest of our prospects that are availiable have no where near his upside imo.

If they take a prospect it will be Kulak. They could always take Kulak and trade him for Shinkaruk + a pick, or something like that.

I still think it's Brouwer, but we are going to send a prospect and pick to make it happen.

 

[Volica]

Wall of text, TL;DR

The point you missed while making your winded argument, was simply that NHL teams all have a guy who is right at the cusp of making it to the NHL or is in the NHL that is above or beyond what Kulak would offer Vegas.

If you just go down the first few teams:
Anaheim; may have to leave Manson or Vatanen exposed
Arizona; Tinordi will not be protected, past 1st rounder with size.
Boston; Joe Morrow might not be protected, past first rounder and known commodity.
Buffalo; Will be able to negotiate with Kulikov beforehand, the guy's been a high level defender in the league once before and only a few years older than Kulak.
Carolina; Trevor Carrick is like a Canes' Kulak.
Chicago; literally whichever of their young D they want, because Chicago can't protect a single one. Pokka, TVR, Svedberg; whoever.

etc, etc, etc.

My point is not 'I wanted someone to spend 30 minutes compiling advanced numbers to compare our player against the league', it's that Kulak's 3 points in 21 games is going to keep McPhee & co in their pants, plain and simple. There are a lot sexier names out there for Dmen; and in reality Kulak likely wouldn't crack the top 7 for exposed Dmen names; and if he can't crack that list, he's waiver fodder and it's a waste of a pick for Vegas.

 

[InfinityIggy]

~much text~

Of all the players you have listed in your 'sample' Kulak has the lowest Games Played. The vast majority have 60-80, while Kulak played just 21. Not reliable data at all.

 

[DCDM]

(╯°□°）╯︵

So... what you're saying is you're a fan of Kulak?

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Kulak has high potential. The rest of our prospects that are availiable have no where near his upside imo.

If they take a prospect it will be Kulak. They could always take Kulak and trade him for Shinkaruk + a pick, or something like that.

I still think it's Brouwer, but we are going to send a prospect and pick to make it happen.

Is Kulak really going to be at least the 7th best defenseman they take? Otherwise he will need to be put on waivers and that's a waste for Vegas, because at the very least we would claim him back.

 

[Fig]

Kulak has high potential. The rest of our prospects that are availiable have no where near his upside imo.

If they take a prospect it will be Kulak. They could always take Kulak and trade him for Shinkaruk + a pick, or something like that.

I still think it's Brouwer, but we are going to send a prospect and pick to make it happen.

A random package of Brouwer + Other prospect > Kulak all day for Vegas. McPhee might love it for the familiar face alone. I'm sure Brouwer would retain his letter for Vegas easily.

IMO, the 3 options really are: Eggs in pre-expansion discussions, Brouwer in expansion or Prospect in expansion. This ignoring side deals to consummate an option.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Is Kulak really going to be at least the 7th best defenseman they take? Otherwise he will need to be put on waivers and that's a waste for Vegas, because at the very least we would claim him back.

That's a good point. But yes, imo they will prioritize young guys with upside. Plus, I think there is always more of a market for defencemen. So stockpiling D is not a bad strategy.

I still think it makes sense for Vegas to take a pick and select Brouwer. Do that like 10 ten times. Load up on garbage contracts/picks and be terrible for three years.

Build a solid prospect pool and get a few studs through the draft.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

That's a good point. But yes, imo they will prioritize young guys with upside. Plus, I think there is always more of a market for defencemen. So stockpiling D is not a bad strategy.

I still think it makes sense for Vegas to take a pick and select Brouwer. Do that like 10 ten times. Load up on garbage contracts/picks and be terrible for three years.

Build a solid prospect pool and get a few studs through the draft.

I agree that they will target youth where they can. I just think that with the way the format is set up, usually a teams #4 defenseman is better than their #8 forward. So if I'm Vegas, I'm taking as many defenseman as I can, and then using some of them as trade bait to fill out my roster or get picks and prospects.

I think in terms of taking bad contracts it depends on what other options they have available and how much it is worth to them. For example, does Minnesota give up a top tier prospect so Vegas takes Pominville or something along those lines. When looking at Calgary, and their other options are so weak, it shouldn't cost much.

I still think they look at our roster and consider just taking/signing Engelland to be honest.

 

[Volica]

That's a good point. But yes, imo they will prioritize young guys with upside. Plus, I think there is always more of a market for defencemen. So stockpiling D is not a bad strategy.

I still think it makes sense for Vegas to take a pick and select Brouwer. Do that like 10 ten times. Load up on garbage contracts/picks and be terrible for three years.

Build a solid prospect pool and get a few studs through the draft.

I don't think they'll load up on too many garbage contracts; I think they'll get:
5-10 <25 y.o NHL'ers who can step into the lineup right away
5 or so; waiver eligible pro prospects that they can anchor their AHL affiliate on. I expect their draft to draft at least a couple European kids they could slot right into the AHL.
7-15; 1-2 year contract expiry players; they can't just take a bunch of guys on expiring contracts, because they won't be able to get value from them all at the 2018 TDL. They need some guys to hold down the fort for a few seasons; and also guys they can comfortably just move away from when their contracts end to target FA's they actually want.
5 or so; long term pieces, 3+ year contracts (thinking along the lines of Dion or Bobby Ryan; Troy Brouwer fits here) for them to have a leadership group for the next few seasons that'll likely not be great.

Their best bet is to really stink for a few seasons (which they will regardless) so they can load up on draft picks and build internally. In reality, they'll likely only get 5 or so grade A pieces.

 

[Lunatik]

A random package of Brouwer + Other prospect > Kulak all day for Vegas. McPhee might love it for the familiar face alone. I'm sure Brouwer would retain his letter for Vegas easily.

IMO, the 3 options really are: Eggs in pre-expansion discussions, Brouwer in expansion or Prospect in expansion. This ignoring side deals to consummate an option.

I'd add Stajan to the mix. Leader, good with young players, only one year left on his deal, a player that could get something at the trade deadline.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I'd add Stajan to the mix. Leader, good with young players, only one year left on his deal, a player that could get something at the trade deadline.

Wouldn't shock me if they took Stajan at all. As was pointed out earlier, his contract only having 1 year left is advantageous as Vegas can trade him at the deadline if they wanted, gives them a lot of flexibility.

 

[Razzdazzle1]

Wouldn't shock me if they took Stajan at all. As was pointed out earlier, his contract only having 1 year left is advantageous as Vegas can trade him at the deadline if they wanted, gives them a lot of flexibility.

Stajan? Trade him at the deadline? Lol he wouldn't add any value to a team making a playoff run. He's a nice guy, but that's about it. He's done.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Stajan? Trade him at the deadline? Lol he wouldn't add any value to a team making a playoff run. He's a nice guy, but that's about it. He's done.

He didn't look done at all this year. He will never be a prolific scorer but he is a useful bottom 6 center. I have little doubt he could fetch a 3rd-4th at the deadline. Teams love to acquire guys like him for playoff depth. Vegas could also retain salary, meaning there is a lot of teams his contract (half of it) would fit on at the deadline.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

He didn't look done at all this year. He will never be a prolific scorer but he is a useful bottom 6 center. I have little doubt he could fetch a 3rd-4th at the deadline. Teams love to acquire guys like him for playoff depth. Vegas could also retain salary, meaning there is a lot of teams his contract (half of it) would fit on at the deadline.

I think he's closer to Steve Ott who got a 6th than a guy who gets a 3rd at the deadline these days. Just my opinion.

I wasn't really happy with Stajan for most of the last few months of the season and playoffs.

Edit: Looking at the guys that got thirds this year.

Vanek
Stahlberg
Smith (got a 2nd and 3rd technically)
Jurco
Stone

He's arguably as good as Stalhberg and better than Jurco. But not so much as the rest imo.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

I'd add Stajan to the mix. Leader, good with young players, only one year left on his deal, a player that could get something at the trade deadline.

I'd guess that Stajan is probably the first guy Vegas would want to take from Calgary, based on exactly that. He's the perfect vet to help a new team get on its feet during the crappy years.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I think he's closer to Steve Ott who got a 6th than a guy who gets a 3rd at the deadline these days. Just my opinion.

I wasn't really happy with Stajan for most of the last few months of the season and playoffs.

Edit: Looking at the guys that got thirds this year.

Vanek
Stahlberg
Smith (got a 2nd and 3rd technically)
Jurco
Stone

He's arguably as good as Stalhberg and better than Jurco. But not so much as the rest imo.

Even Stajan's lackluster production dwarves Steve Ott's production the last several years.

Whatever round the pick might be the point stands that his contract makes him a pretty flexible asset at the deadline.

 

[Fig]

I'd add Stajan to the mix. Leader, good with young players, only one year left on his deal, a player that could get something at the trade deadline.

Agreed.

Brouwer/Stajan (current middle 6er) + lesser prospect/picks > Kulak alone

I believe Vegas does need to hit the salary floor with the picks they choose. I do not believe Vegas can grab purely ELC and cheap options for all their picks then fill up the salary floor with Pronger/Datsyuk contracts.

But, I probably should go re-read the expansion draft requirements to confirm. I usually read from the Flames perspective, not Vegas'.

I think Vegas will end up with 3-4 older middle 6 guys and paid a small sum to take them. Guys like Hartnell, Stajan/Brouwer, Phaneuf etc. would be plausible possibilities. I don't think they'll take on bottom 6/AHL fodder bad contracts though unless they were offered something freaking amazing to do so.

 

[Lunatik]

Agreed.

Brouwer/Stajan (current middle 6er) + lesser prospect/picks > Kulak alone

I believe Vegas does need to hit the salary floor with the picks they choose. I do not believe Vegas can grab purely ELC and cheap options for all their picks then fill up the salary floor with Pronger/Datsyuk contracts.

But, I probably should go re-read the expansion draft requirements to confirm. I usually read from the Flames perspective, not Vegas'.

I think Vegas will end up with 3-4 older middle 6 guys and paid a small sum to take them. Guys like Hartnell, Stajan/Brouwer, Phaneuf etc. would be plausible possibilities. I don't think they'll take on bottom 6/AHL fodder bad contracts though unless they were offered something freaking amazing to do so.

Frankly I think Kulak is massive overrated by many posters. He's likely to never be more than a bottom pairing guy and isn't quite NHL ready.

 

[Fig]

I'd guess that Stajan is probably the first guy Vegas would want to take from Calgary, based on exactly that. He's the perfect vet to help a new team get on its feet during the crappy years.

Fantasy for some posters:

Pollock + Stajan if Vegas takes on Brouwer. Two salaries out and an excess LW that reminds me of Archie.


I'm also guessing Eggs doesn't get a job in Vegas if they take that offer as they'll maximize their Dmen drafting. I wonder if we can get Eggs to come back at 2 mil or if we go a different route.

 

[Fig]

Frankly I think Kulak is massive overrated by many posters. He's likely to never be more than a bottom pairing guy and isn't quite NHL ready.

I think he's a 4/5 long term a la Russell. Anything more than that would be pure gravy.

That being said, so did many individuals before Brodie broke out. Brodie is at least a 2/3 who often shows signs of one day being a 1D. I don't think Kulak can emulate this... but who knows.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Fantasy for some posters:

Pollock + Stajan if Vegas takes on Brouwer. Two salaries out and an excess LW that reminds me of Archie.


I'm also guessing Eggs doesn't get a job in Vegas if they take that offer as they'll maximize their Dmen drafting. I wonder if we can get Eggs to come back at 2 mil or if we go a different route.

lol that would be a lot of players out. I'd personally prefer that the Flames kept Stajan since he's only on contract for another year, and is an excellent 4th line C. Maybe they'd take Pollock to take Brouwer? That wouldn't be bad.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I wonder what Vegas would give us for Gio?

 

[InfinityIggy]

I wonder what Vegas would give us for Gio?

Maybe that Duke guy?

 

[Calculon]

Fantasy for some posters:

Pollock + Stajan if Vegas takes on Brouwer. Two salaries out and an excess LW that reminds me of Archie.

Edit:
Gaudreau - Monahan - Ferland
Versteeg - Backlund - Frolik
Tkachuk - Bennett - Lazar
Bouma - Jankowski - Hathaway
Hamilton/Chiasson

or

Gaudreau - Monahan- Oshie
Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland - Bennett - Lazar
Bouma - Jankowski - Hathaway
Chiasson/Hamilton

 

[InfinityIggy]

Fantasy for some posters:

Pollock + Stajan if Vegas takes on Brouwer. Two salaries out and an excess LW that reminds me of Archie.


I'm also guessing Eggs doesn't get a job in Vegas if they take that offer as they'll maximize their Dmen drafting. I wonder if we can get Eggs to come back at 2 mil or if we go a different route.

That'd be interesting.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Bennett
Tkachuk - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland - Jankowski - Lazar
? - ? - Hathaway