Speculation: Armchair GM Thread: Long long journey through the darkness, where is our goalie?

[Rubi]

If we're trading with Ottawa, I'd rather send Michael Stone to them to make room for Rasmus Andersson. I know they might want to be stockpiling picks, but they do have a raft of prospects in the pipeline already. Stone would give them some leadership on the backend and might make brother Mark want to stick around next year. So Michael for Ottawa's 2019 2nd round pick?

Sorry. I doubt Mark Stone will be playing for Ottawa next year so I doubt Melnyk would be interested in taking on his brother. Besides Michael is too old, too expensive, and too good for Melnyk's tastes and Eugene wants to give Colorado the best chance he can at snagging the first over all draft pick next June.

 

[Nanuuk]

Yabut, after the EK trade I figured it was worth a shot.

 

[Calculon]

People need to look at the cap situation. Can't add someone making 7.35M a season and expect to re-sign him longterm (likely at 7.5M+) without sending an equal amount of cap back (or somewhere else).

Tkachuk needs a sizeable raise next season (~6M). They need to find two goalies (anywhere from Rittich+Gillies at ~3M to Bobrovsky+Gillies at 9M). The current 13th and 14th forwards plus the 6th and 7th defenceman make 3.5M; expect next year's versions, whether they're the same or not, to make roughly the same amount. And that's pretty much all the cap space the Flames have for next year (14M). And you still have Bennett to re-sign.

Unless the cap rises by a significant amount (e.g. 5M+), they're going to have to move Stone or Frolik just to keep the rest of the team together. Adding in the other Stone or anyone else expensive would mean a lot more salary needs to head somewhere else.

 

[Nanuuk]

I believe that by the end of training camp there may be a couple of players be waived and being picked up for nothing. Hathaway, Lazar, Kulak come to mind. If I were Tre I'd be looking to make trades for drafts picks. Frolik and Stone are obvious candidates to be moved just on their cap hits alone although I would see that happening later in the year. The at risk D-man at the moment has to be Kulak. I don't think the Flames would lose too much at that spot (most likely would be improved) if Valimaki makes the jump. I think Andersson could make the jump too, but as Rubi has said playing two rookies together might not be in the best interests of the club.

 

[Flameshomer]

People need to look at the cap situation. Can't add someone making 7.35M a season and expect to re-sign him longterm (likely at 7.5M+) without sending an equal amount of cap back (or somewhere else).

Tkachuk needs a sizeable raise next season (~6M). They need to find two goalies (anywhere from Rittich+Gillies at ~3M to Bobrovsky+Gillies at 9M). The current 13th and 14th forwards plus the 6th and 7th defenceman make 3.5M; expect next year's versions, whether they're the same or not, to make roughly the same amount. And that's pretty much all the cap space the Flames have for next year (14M). And you still have Bennett to re-sign.

Unless the cap rises by a significant amount (e.g. 5M+), they're going to have to move Stone or Frolik just to keep the rest of the team together. Adding in the other Stone or anyone else expensive would mean a lot more salary needs to head somewhere else.

I agree that the Cap situation next year is going to get tighter, but for Mark Stone i think we could make it work. Say, for example, that we could sign he and Tkachuk long term for 7 mil each, and Bennett goes the other way in the trade (estimating a cap increase of 3 million):

This one is sloppy- I just filled in Mrazek as the goalie, and we're over the cap by a million, but essentially what it shows is that this is achievable if we want it to be. Further, if we acquired someone of Stone's caliber, and Jankowski or Dube really steps up, it might make a contract like Backlund's or Ryan's unnecessary and allow us to move out salary that way. Goalie is still a big question mark, but if Rittich or Gillies performs then we definitely have room.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

I agree that the Cap situation next year is going to get tighter, but for Mark Stone i think we could make it work. Say, for example, that we could sign he and Tkachuk long term for 7 mil each, and Bennett goes the other way in the trade (estimating a cap increase of 3 million):

This one is sloppy- I just filled in Mrazek as the goalie, but essentially what it shows is that this is achievable if we want it to be. Further, if we acquired someone of Stone's caliber, and Jankowski or Dube really steps up, it might make a contract like Backlund's or Ryan's unnecessary and allow us to move out salary that way.

I think Frolik would be a cap casualty before Backlund or Ryan. But I'd rather not skimp out on goaltending again personally.

 

[Flameshomer]

I think Frolik would be a cap casualty before Backlund or Ryan. But I'd rather not skimp out on goaltending again personally.

Frolik already has to be a casualty to make it work, but I see him as a good candidate for internal replacement regardless.

I agree with you on goaltending- but I think that this shows that we could also offer big money to Bobrovsky if we were so inclined. I suppose we will see how our forward group preforms.

 

[Calculon]

I agree that the Cap situation next year is going to get tighter, but for Mark Stone i think we could make it work. Say, for example, that we could sign he and Tkachuk long term for 7 mil each, and Bennett goes the other way in the trade (estimating a cap increase of 3 million):

This one is sloppy- I just filled in Mrazek as the goalie, and we're over the cap by a million, but essentially what it shows is that this is achievable if we want it to be. Further, if we acquired someone of Stone's caliber, and Jankowski or Dube really steps up, it might make a contract like Backlund's or Ryan's unnecessary and allow us to move out salary that way. Goalie is still a big question mark, but if Rittich or Gillies performs then we definitely have room.

Does that include Brouwer's buyout? Also can't see Stone signing longterm for 7M when he's currently making 7.35M on a one year deal as an RFA. But Tkachuk should be a little cheaper.

Two other things; Treliving likes to carry a full 23 man roster. That's another 2-3M. He also likes to leave 1-2M in space for short term injury recalls for obvious reasons- remember what happened in the 2008-2009 season?

Injuries continued to batter the Flames towards the end of the regular season, as defencemen Robyn Regehr (MCL) and Cory Sarich (broken foot) were both lost in early April. The injuries led the Flames to call up rookies Matt Pelech and John Negrin, the latter of whom had just finished his junior season and had never played a professional game, to make their NHL debuts against the Minnesota Wild. The Flames were forced to play their final games of the regular season with as few as 15 skaters, below the normal 18, as the team lacked available salary cap space to call up replacements without sending other players down to their minor league affiliate in Quad City

It's not that adding a Stone or Bobrovsky is utterly impossible, it's just a matter of dollars in, dollars out to make the numbers work. That's the one thing about Treliving's work thus far; the roster is kind of locked in. He can't add another expensive player without shedding cap space elsewhere.

 

[super6646]

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2015-nhl-re-draft-30.2542675/#post-149673837

Vote for andersson guys. Absolutely criminal if he's out of the 1st round in a redraft.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2015-nhl-re-draft-30.2542675/#post-149673837

Vote for andersson guys. Absolutely criminal if he's out of the 1st round in a redraft.

It doesn’t matter. Our prospects never do well on main board. The amount of absolutely mediocre prospects from fan bases like Philly that make that list is astonishing.

 

[Lunatik]

I'm not sure Andersson is better than the guys left. Voting for him for the sake of voting for him when it's not accurate is stupid.

 

[Ty Dolla]

The backup position is still an uncertainty for this team. Would Jacob Markstrom maybe be a potential option as a backup? He hasn't been the number one that Vancouver thought he'd be but he's also been playing behind Vancouver. His cap hit is 3.67 for 2 more years. Maybe something around a Rittich & Stone +?

 

[JPeeper]

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2015-nhl-re-draft-30.2542675/#post-149673837

Vote for andersson guys. Absolutely criminal if he's out of the 1st round in a redraft.

f*** that draft was good. We had like 3 2nd's and the 1st too for it. I know we got Hamilton out of it which has turned into Hanifin and Lindholm which ended up being the #5 from that said draft and Lindy was #5 in 2013, but still only ended up drafting twice in the 2nd out of all those picks (by moving a 3rd).

Yet in 2013 when we have 3 bloody 1st's we end up drafting 2 busts and trading for 3 more (and trading for 1 guy with more to show).

 

[Flames Fanatic]

The backup position is still an uncertainty for this team. Would Jacob Markstrom maybe be a potential option as a backup? He hasn't been the number one that Vancouver thought he'd be but he's also been playing behind Vancouver. His cap hit is 3.67 for 2 more years. Maybe something around a Rittich & Stone +?

I doubt Vancouver would trade him to us. I'm also not convinced he's a huge upgrade on Gilles or Rittich. Upgrade probably, big one no.

 

[Ty Dolla]

I doubt Vancouver would trade him to us. I'm also not convinced he's a huge upgrade on Gilles or Rittich. Upgrade probably, big one no.

Yeah I'm in the same boat. When I look around the league, I don't really see any goalies that are a definitive upgrade that would be available.

 

[Baxterman]

The backup position is still an uncertainty for this team. Would Jacob Markstrom maybe be a potential option as a backup? He hasn't been the number one that Vancouver thought he'd be but he's also been playing behind Vancouver. His cap hit is 3.67 for 2 more years. Maybe something around a Rittich & Stone +?

I don't think he is much of an upgrade and isn't he crazy?

Or is that a different Swedish goalie (not Lehner I know who he is an that he is crazy) that I am thinking of that went nuts in the WJHC a few years ago when Sweden was getting pumped by Canada?

 

[Bounces R Way]

The backup position is still an uncertainty for this team. Would Jacob Markstrom maybe be a potential option as a backup? He hasn't been the number one that Vancouver thought he'd be but he's also been playing behind Vancouver. His cap hit is 3.67 for 2 more years. Maybe something around a Rittich & Stone +?

Too expensive. Don't think Van want Demko backing up Nilsson as they try to exit their rebuild either. If Rittich or Gillies can't get the job done you just sign another FA floating around for cheap in hopes they can. Any goalie who'd be a definitive upgrade is likely young and has too much value for the Flames to give up in trade.

 

[Ty Dolla]

Too expensive. Don't think Van want Demko backing up Nilsson as they try to exit their rebuild either. If Rittich or Gillies can't get the job done you just sign another FA floating around for cheap in hopes they can. Any goalie who'd be a definitive upgrade is likely young and has too much value for the Flames to give up in trade.

Yeah I agree. But the FA crop of goalies remaining aren't really that great. There's Lehtonen or Mason this year. Next year isn't anymore promising besides Bobrovsky, who I think does not really fit our cap structure. So we are left with re-signing Mike Smith or someone like Varlamov, who's had his share of injuries as well.

 

[Baxterman]

Yeah I agree. But the FA crop of goalies remaining aren't really that great. There's Lehtonen or Mason this year. Next year isn't anymore promising besides Bobrovsky, who I think does not really fit our cap structure. So we are left with re-signing Mike Smith or someone like Varlamov, who's had his share of injuries as well.

I would take Pickard over him and Pickard will be free so even better.

Edit: also would take Rittich over Markstrom considering the cost and salary

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Extremely hypothetical, but if Dube manages to steal either Backlund or Neal's spot, and with the possibilities of some big names available during the 2019 UFA market, do we trade Backlund or Neal and for whom?

 

[Baxterman]

Extremely hypothetical, but if Dube manages to steal either Backlund or Neal's spot, and with the possibilities of some big names available during the 2019 UFA market, do we trade Backlund or Neal and for whom?

Dube being a LHS either LW or C I can't see him taking Neal's spot. Plus I think Neals pure goal scoring talent is something we need and finally with him signing a big FA deal last off-season I doubt he is moved.

As for Backlund I think there is room for both of them on the roster. As I have been advocating for awhile him moving down to the "3rd line" to play in a more shutdown (with the ability to provide secondary scoring as well) because someone legitimately took his spot in the top 6 likely moves us from good to contender. So I don't move him.

I think the clear guy to move if Dube is shown to be a top 6 or even top 9 is Frolik next off-season. I think with him having only one year left he would be attractive and he brings the qualities that should appeal to teams coming up (leadership, versatility, ability to help young guys) and contenders so while we might not get an A level prospect we won't have to give him away.

I tend to think that Dube is more likely a LW than C so that might limit him with the two LW's in front of him but if he can play C at the NHL level then that allows us to keep Lindholm on the top line where he has been a nice fit (albeit early) and then Tkachuk-Dube-Neal could be a nice line behind them.

 

[Nanuuk]

I may have posted this before, but I think Dube has surpassed Bennett as a centreman on the depth chart and that the Flames still need to develop another C. For this reason I can see the Flames playing Dube at C and moving Ryan to the wing. Frolik is interchangeable at LW/RW so for now pencil him in at LW.

Gaudreau/Monahan/Lindholm
Tkachuk/Dube/Neal
Frolik/Backlund/Ryan
Bennett/Jankowski/Czarnik

Spares: Hathaway/Peluso

Again, there are so many options that the Flames can mix and match, plug and play, and I don't think they'll miss much of a beat. You'll note in this combo that I've place Backs on the 3rd line. I really feel he is more suited to that role while still providing secondary scoring with Frolik and hopefully Ryan. Adding Dube (or Jankowski) to the 2nd line hopefully juices it up a bit.

You may be right about playing Dube on the LW. The Flames might want to shelter him, but so far he has handled the centre position quite well.

 

[Nanuuk]

I should have added that the probability is that Dube starts in Stockton as the Flames won't want to lose someone on the waiver wire. Tre will probably look to swing a deal first even if it takes some time.

 

[Baxterman]

I should have added that the probability is that Dube starts in Stockton as the Flames won't want to lose someone on the waiver wire. Tre will probably look to swing a deal first even if it takes some time.

They should have no worries about the waiver wire.

Hathaway and Peluso pass without a team even thinking about it and Lazar likely passes this time of year unless there is an injury/DUI situation that a team quickly needs a guy to grab.

 

[Nanuuk]

Perhaps, but that would mean a Dube or a Mangiapane sees limited ice time. And I'd rather them scorch in Stockton playing big minutes to further their development. Existing roster bubble boys, othern than Hathaway, Lazar, etc. have to be Bennett and Frolik. Neither of whom would be waived. Traded maybe. Waived no. In Frolik's case I'm guessing next off season. In Bennett's case, if he finally breaks out he's going nowhere.