Armchair GM IV: What do you mean Internal Cap???

[Shaman464]

Wings aren't selling because they're a playoff team. You might think they're not very good and they'll get jack hammered in the first round, but no team worth its salt is going to sell off pieces when they're literally five points out of a division lead at the trade deadline. Particularly when the team leading the division seems primed for a decline because they're riding a crazy unsustainable hit streak.

Trading UFA rentals for fourth round picks sounds like a good idea because you're getting assets for someone who could just walk away... But fourth round picks are optimistic returns for the guys the Wings would be selling and seriously, a guy like Helm will provide more value to the Wings than the, at-best, 5% chance they get something useful out of that pick. Most fourth round picks amount to nothing. So you can feel good about "not letting a player leave for no return" while ignoring the fact that so many of the mid round players pretty much are no return.

Selling guys for the sake of salvagjng "value" is ridiculous when you're ignoring the value they will provide for the last two months before they are free agents.

It's like for some reason you feel fine discounting the fact that any team can win in a seven game series and don't want that risk, but you're fine putting the risk into the draft where you won't know for three or four years if you've wasted your time. A 1-5% shot at the draft is fine, but a lets say 20-40% shot in the playoffs is a certainty.

They are a playoff team in the same way Calgary was in the late 2000s, one without a realistic chance of contending. Every year that Holland delays the rebuild the longer it will take for it to be over. If the Wings' even had a snowball's chance in hell of winning a cup you'd be right. But since they don't they need to right the ship now or watch it capsize when Z and Dats leave.

 

[dtones520]

They are a playoff team in the same way Calgary was in the late 2000s, one without a realistic chance of contending. Every year that Holland delays the rebuild the longer it will take for it to be over. If the Wings' even had a snowball's chance in hell of winning a cup you'd be right. But since they don't they need to right the ship now or watch it capsize when Z and Dats leave.

I'm a bit confused as to how things are going to capsize when Datsyuk and Z leave? By doing things he way that we have, we have found a potential superstar in Larkin. He has proven to be as good as any highly drafted (top 5) pick. We have tons of young support talent and a young, stud goalie. So, I'm not really sure why they should change their approach at all. They are giving themselves a chance to win, albeit slight, while Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Kronwall are still here and are stockpiling pieces for the future.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Wings aren't selling because they're a playoff team. You might think they're not very good and they'll get jack hammered in the first round, but no team worth its salt is going to sell off pieces when they're literally five points out of a division lead at the trade deadline. Particularly when the team leading the division seems primed for a decline because they're riding a crazy unsustainable hit streak.

Trading UFA rentals for fourth round picks sounds like a good idea because you're getting assets for someone who could just walk away... But fourth round picks are optimistic returns for the guys the Wings would be selling and seriously, a guy like Helm will provide more value to the Wings than the, at-best, 5% chance they get something useful out of that pick. Most fourth round picks amount to nothing. So you can feel good about "not letting a player leave for no return" while ignoring the fact that so many of the mid round players pretty much are no return.

Selling guys for the sake of salvagjng "value" is ridiculous when you're ignoring the value they will provide for the last two months before they are free agents.

It's like for some reason you feel fine discounting the fact that any team can win in a seven game series and don't want that risk, but you're fine putting the risk into the draft where you won't know for three or four years if you've wasted your time. A 1-5% shot at the draft is fine, but a lets say 20-40% shot in the playoffs is a certainty.

its a 20-40% chance whether helm or smith or pulkinnen are in the lineup or not

its almost as though you're saying our chances with helm and smith are 20-40% chance and without them its 0 and thus thats why we shouldnt move them and thats simply not accurate

 

[Bushay]

I'm a bit confused as to how things are going to capsize when Datsyuk and Z leave? By doing things he way that we have, we have found a potential superstar in Larkin. He has proven to be as good as any highly drafted (top 5) pick. We have tons of young support talent and a young, stud goalie. So, I'm not really sure why they should change their approach at all. They are giving themselves a chance to win, albeit slight, while Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Kronwall are still here and are stockpiling pieces for the future.

Well said....Love what Blashill had to say today. .....

Head coach Jeff Blashill said, "because it falls on a game day, I've been real focused on just getting our team ready and going through preparation. I sat in with the pro scouts yesterday with Ken Holland and his management team and went through that.

"It's a little bit like July 1, where there's some opportunity for teams to add, but lots of times, there's also mistakes. One thing that's real important is that chemistry is real important. You build chemistry through time, and I think we've got a good group of chemistry here.

"I like our squad a lot. I'm more than comfortable. I'm excited about the roster going forward. (Tomas) Tatar and (Gustav) Nyquist are going to get going. They are proven goal scorers in the league. I don't know where else you find 29- and 27-goal scorers. We've got guys here that I believe in a ton. It's easy to want to add, but lots of times, those end up being mistakes. I'm very, very pleased with our group."

 

[WingedWheel1987]

I'm a bit confused as to how things are going to capsize when Datsyuk and Z leave? By doing things he way that we have, we have found a potential superstar in Larkin. He has proven to be as good as any highly drafted (top 5) pick. We have tons of young support talent and a young, stud goalie. So, I'm not really sure why they should change their approach at all. They are giving themselves a chance to win, albeit slight, while Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Kronwall are still here and are stockpiling pieces for the future.

What exactly have the Wings stockpiled? The prospect pool for defenseman is a barren wasteland.

Meanwhile Datsyuk and Zetterberg are more than likely going to finish the season being the #1 and #2 point producers on the team again. And it's not like they are putting up a ton of points too. There just isn't anyone on the team that is half as consistent as they are. Larkin is the only player who you can point to and think it might be possible with him.

What happens when you take the bus driver away and nobody else can drive the bus? It crashes.

 

[Shaman464]

I'm a bit confused as to how things are going to capsize when Datsyuk and Z leave? By doing things he way that we have, we have found a potential superstar in Larkin. He has proven to be as good as any highly drafted (top 5) pick. We have tons of young support talent and a young, stud goalie. So, I'm not really sure why they should change their approach at all. They are giving themselves a chance to win, albeit slight, while Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Kronwall are still here and are stockpiling pieces for the future.

The Wings have two players that qualify as future core pieces. That's it. They don't have any defense, and beyond Larkin the center depth is laughable. They have some decent prospects on wing but Mantha as fizzled in his transition to the AHL and hasn't put up numbers anywhere near what he did in the CHL, AA looks to be a slightly better Helm and Svech is still 3 years away from sniffing the NHL. So with the decline of Z, Dats and Kronwall and Howard being a likely flash in the pan Detroit has found answers to two of those but still needs 1 more top level center and 2 top 2 dmen.

Having two good players on a team of replaceables is pretty much the 2000's Flames plan for mediocrity.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

The Wings have two players that qualify as future core pieces. That's it. They don't have any defense, and beyond Larkin the center depth is laughable. They have some decent prospects on wing but Mantha as fizzled in his transition to the AHL and hasn't put up numbers anywhere near what he did in the CHL, AA looks to be a slightly better Helm and Svech is still 3 years away from sniffing the NHL. So with the decline of Z, Dats and Kronwall and Howard being a likely flash in the pan Detroit has found answers to two of those but still needs 1 more top level center and 2 top 2 dmen.

Having two good players on a team of replaceables is pretty much the 2000's Flames plan for mediocrity.

the ex nhl players on TV this morning were saying(talking about the oilers) and good team has to have a core that consists of 1 goalie, 2 dmen and 3 forwards

 

[Frk It]

The Wings have two players that qualify as future core pieces. That's it. They don't have any defense, and beyond Larkin the center depth is laughable. They have some decent prospects on wing but Mantha as fizzled in his transition to the AHL and hasn't put up numbers anywhere near what he did in the CHL, AA looks to be a slightly better Helm and Svech is still 3 years away from sniffing the NHL. So with the decline of Z, Dats and Kronwall and Howard being a likely flash in the pan Detroit has found answers to two of those but still needs 1 more top level center and 2 top 2 dmen.

Having two good players on a team of replaceables is pretty much the 2000's Flames plan for mediocrity.

2 top level centers? Hawks don't even have that.

Seems like you're living in an ideal world, here.

 

[Shaman464]

2 top level centers? Hawks don't even have that.

Seems like you're living in an ideal world, here.

Yes, two top 6 level centers. Larkin is looking great as a winger, but has yet to prove he can be as good centering a top line. So Detroit right now might have one top 6 center.

 

[Reddwit]

Arguably the Wings 2 best targets - Shattenkirk and Vatanen - weren't going to be moved til the draft at least anyway.

 

[Shaman464]

Holland stammers his way through a HSJ interview

 

[HockeyinHD]

The Wings have two players that qualify as future core pieces. That's it. They don't have any defense, and beyond Larkin the center depth is laughable.

Anyone have a Hudson gif handy?

 

[skate skate skate]

Holland stammers his way through a HSJ interview

OT, but does anybody know if the way Holland's pronouncing AA's name is the way it's supposed to be pronounced?

 

[HockeyinHD]

So you can feel good about "not letting a player leave for no return" while ignoring the fact that so many of the mid round players pretty much are no return.

Selling guys for the sake of salvagjng "value" is ridiculous when you're ignoring the value they will provide for the last two months before they are free agents.

Exactly right.

Also, even after a departing player leaves the team gets something of value back. His cap space. Back when there wasn't a cap someone could say 'player x left for nothing!' and not sound like a dope. Post-cap, they really can't.

Now, what a player is worth, their 'value', is inextricably tied to what he is paid and what the future terms of his contract are. Howard has no value making 5.3, but if his contract declined in years and/or term (as a rhetorical device, obviously the contract is the contract) his value would increase.

It's like for some reason you feel fine discounting the fact that any team can win in a seven game series and don't want that risk, but you're fine putting the risk into the draft where you won't know for three or four years if you've wasted your time. A 1-5% shot at the draft is fine, but a lets say 20-40% shot in the playoffs is a certainty.

People just want the Wings to win right now, or at most really really soon, and they don't care what it costs the team to do so. Within that motivation they're willing to make all kinds of wacky trades and sell offs or contract offers just to take a shot that something amazing happens.

Around 70% of fans are dopplegangers of Kevin Lowe circa 2007-ish, when he started going nuts trying to win games to save his job, only accomplishing a near-complete dissolution of the franchise in much the same manner someone thrashing about in a pool of quicksand goes straight to the bottom.

 

[Shaman464]

It's like for some reason you feel fine discounting the fact that any team can win in a seven game series and don't want that risk, but you're fine putting the risk into the draft where you won't know for three or four years if you've wasted your time. A 1-5% shot at the draft is fine, but a lets say 20-40% shot in the playoffs is a certainty.

Statistically speaking the NHL playoffs along with the NBA heavily favor the top seeds. If you look since the WHA-NHL merger in 1980 the top 4 in both conferences seeds 77.5% of teams that have appeared in the SCF. The bottom 8 teams (4 from each conference) have won about 10% of cups in that same period.

Literally the bottom 50% of teams in the playoffs have over the last 30+ years have only taken home exactly 11% of the cups.

So no not anything could happen, in fact if you are in the bottom half of teams your chances are laughable.

 

[SimplySolace]

OT, but does anybody know if the way Holland's pronouncing AA's name is the way it's supposed to be pronounced?

No, he says it wrong. It's like Happy-to-see-you

 

[Shaman464]

No, he says it wrong. It's like Happy-to-see-you

I thought it was Happy-Ta-Zoo-You.

 

[SimplySolace]

i thought it was happy-ta-zoo-you.

From his Twitter Q&A

 

[Bench]

Statistically speaking the NHL playoffs along with the NBA heavily favor the top seeds. If you look since the WHA-NHL merger in 1980 the top 4 in both conferences seeds 77.5% of teams that have appeared in the SCF. The bottom 8 teams (4 from each conference) have won about 10% of cups in that same period.

Literally the bottom 50% of teams in the playoffs have over the last 30+ years have only taken home exactly 11% of the cups.

So no not anything could happen, in fact if you are in the bottom half of teams your chances are laughable.

But you have to admit these numbers will change over the next 30 years due to the salary cap and the league putting such an emphasis on parity? Overtime "loser" points, 3 on 3, and shootouts. All of those things conflate standings more than past years when ties were ties.

That's not to say top teams won't win at a higher percentage, they absolutely will, but I think you'll see that 11% number jump given the landscape of the league. Even more so if they add expansion teams.

 

[Shaman464]

But you have to admit these numbers will change over the next 30 years due to the salary cap and the league putting such an emphasis on parity? Overtime "loser" points, 3 on 3, and shootouts. All of those things conflate standings more than past years when ties were ties.

That's not to say top teams won't win at a higher percentage, they absolutely will, but I think you'll see that 11% number jump given the landscape of the league. Even more so if they add expansion teams.

I don't think that's true, I think that dynasties are gone for sure, but I think that teams as they enter windows will dominate and then wain quickly as cap hell sets in. The loser points tend to favor weaker teams and I think it causes more parity in the middle of the standings (6-12) but that doesn't change the fact that the top teams will continue to dominate.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Holland stammers his way through a HSJ interview

It's interesting that Stan Bowman thought there were quite a few deals there to be made prior to the deadline to improve his roster. Does he know something Holland doesn't?

 

[FlashyG]

Under the new playoff format, the Stanley Cup champion has been a 3rd place divisional team in both seasons.

I think most, if not all of us agree that the current team is at best a long shot to win a cup, but realistically so are about 25 other teams in the league.

What I don't get is the very small minority on this board who seem to think that if you're not part of that elite 5 the only option is to blow the team up, finish near the bottom and rebuild from scratch.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

It's interesting that Stan Bowman thought there were quite a few deals there to be made prior to the deadline to improve his roster. Does he know something Holland doesn't?

One team has a set core and is in total win now mode:

The other has guys at the end of their careers and guys at the beginning.

It's not interesting at all.

I don't understand the unabashed Stan Bowman ass kissing. He's a good GM, but seriously, he's not god's gift to the job.

But seriously, giving up the assets for Ladd or for any the other guys Chicago landed to go all in on a win now strategy wouldn't make the Wings good enough to justify them.

It's like if there is an opportunity to complain about Holland, sense and logical thinking go out the window.

 

[Kyleftlx]

I understand Holland's dilemma at the deadline, but the problem is that it has been the same dilemma every year since Lidstrom retired. He doesn't want to give up a lot for a rental, but the deadline is mainly for rentals and change of scenery guys (Hodgson for Kassian a few years back). The deadline is to either move unhappy / unproductive players or guys you don't expect to re-sign. The offseason is where you make the big time deals generally, the Seguin, Hamilton, Saad type deals. The major problem there is that Holland hasn't made a deal like that in the post cap era.

So, what are you doing? you said the same junk in the offseason about not expecting to make a big move involving the kids... Holding onto your picks... So what exactly is the deal you're looking for? That's the issue I have with this.

This team isn't really built to throw away a 1st and Svechnikov for Ladd. But you're a playoff team with your best 3 players on the wrong side of 30 and approaching the wrong side of 35. While you're not in win now mode, you're kind of not built for anything other than win now mode...

The point is: it's not easy being the GM of the Red Wings right now, but Ken Holland isn't really doing much to help himself if he isn't pulling the trigger on anything. He is right, the depth is fine, he does need an actual legitimate upgrade to justify making a move... So find that upgrade and make it happen.

 

[Oddbob]

Some of you guys must not watch the same Darren Helm that I watch and love. He would be one of the last guys, outside of the core, that I would let go, or trade. I read so much negativity about him. He is easily one of Detroit's hardest working, most effort players they have. He is constantly forcing the other team to turn the puck over, or drawing penalties because of his speed. Injuries are obviously a concern, but when healthy he is awesome at what he does.

He isn't a scorer, sure, but that isn't his job. When he isn't in the line-up, the Wings, just don't have the same jump.