Proposal: Are you in favour of trading Brock Boeser?

[pitseleh]

If he's re-signed I'd like to see something like 3 years @ $6.nn million AAV. This would put him somewhere between 13-20 AAV for RWs.

Is he a mid level 1RW? When he's on, yes. When he's not...no. Doesn't seem likely that he gives up a year of UFA for to much less than his QO, but I'm optimistic he would buy into what JR is building. Wouldn't really want to go longer than 3 years at this point, and don't think he's worth north of $7m.

If that didn't get it done, a 1 year deal at a bit less than his QO would be next best. Don't think he should be paid like a top 10 RW in the league ($7.5m = #10). And don't want to dump him for peanuts. Kinda depends on how Boeser sees the organizations future, and how much he (over)values himself. But I could live with something like 3 years, $20m deal.

I think the problem with looking at it this way is that if you have a roster full of players making market rate salaries, you’ll have a mediocre team. And the Canucks already have so many players making at or above market that they need to start finding spots on the roster to build value, and don’t have a lot of flexibility to continue to pay market rates. That’s especially so with the prospect pipeline being basically non-existent right now.

That doesn’t necessarily mean you move Boeser, but it becomes hard to justify if you can’t dump a bunch of other inefficient money, because otherwise you are just resigning yourself to mediocrity.

Realistically though, what is the lowest QO we could have seen from Boeser? 6.5 million? Benning definitely prioritized a lower AAV by offering a 7.5 QO in the last year, which was stupid, but I am not sure we realistically could have seen a QO for much lower than 6.5 million. That’s why I tend to think Boeser’s player is the bigger issue.

My comment above is part of the issue, but I think a $6.5 million QO for Boeser before this season would have been fair. The problem is with his reduced production there is increased risk it is not a blip and this team can’t really afford more mistakes if they want to be a contender.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Kekalainen in Columbus made a low-key great move last summer when he dealt 4 years of Cam Atkinson running through age 36 @ ~$6 million for 2 years of Jakob Voracek at $8.25 million.

Took on extra cap in two seasons where the team was rebuilding anyway in exchange for clearing the decks to push forward in 2 years.

Voracek is signed for only one less year than Atkinson.

 

[alternate]

I think the problem with looking at it this way is that if you have a roster full of players making market rate salaries, you’ll have a mediocre team. And the Canucks already have so many players making at or above market that they need to start finding spots on the roster to build value, and don’t have a lot of flexibility to continue to pay market rates. That’s especially so with the prospect pipeline being basically non-existent right now.

That doesn’t necessarily mean you move Boeser, but it becomes hard to justify if you can’t dump a bunch of other inefficient money, because otherwise you are just resigning yourself to mediocrity.



My comment above is part of the issue, but I think a $6.5 million QO for Boeser before this season would have been fair. The problem is with his reduced production there is increased risk it is not a blip and this team can’t really afford more mistakes if they want to be a contender.

You make fair and important points that I agree with. But not sure our forwards are that outta whack that you can't pay Boeser a "fair" deal.

I'd say Garland at $4.9m looks like he will be a surplus value deal. The Hogs n Podz are on ELCs for 1&2 more seasons respectively.

Bo has 1 more year left @$5.5m, so fair to surplus value, depending on your views of Horvat.

EP @ $7.35m has been poor value so far, but most would probably agree that if he doesn't rebound to be worth his deal (and looking like he is getting there) then this is all moot anyway.

Miller I'm assuming is dealt soon.

So really (give or take EP) the only contracts that are poorer for our forwards is Tanner Pearson at $3.25m and Dickenson at $2.65m. Pearson seems to be changing some minds, but don't think it will last. Dickenson isn't necessarily overpaid for a 9th-10th forward,just doesn't provide any production from that spot, and thus is a bad contract.

It's really the defense and dead money that is messing up our cap. It all comes from the same bucket ultimately, but still feel we can give Boeser somewhere between his current cap hit and his QO and our top 9 forwards would still provide surplus value as a group, especially if we can dump Dick.

This does assume the cap starts to climb again in the next couple of seasons.

 

[82Ninety42011]

For the same reasons others have listed he's slow not engaged all the time and that QO. We've got plenty of wingers to take his spot for lot less cap he's a luxury. I'd rather allocate those dollars in improving the defense.

 

[elitepete]

What would we get for him at the deadline if he starts heating up?

 

[Johnny Canucker]

Trading BB6 / JTM9 =

asking Peter Griffen if he wants if he wants to a boat or what’s in the mystery box and he chooses the mystery box because “you never know what’s in there. It could even be a boat and you know how much I’ve always wanted one of those”

 

[rypper]

We should totally not trade Miller and have him walk for nothing, the Jim Benning special.

 

[elitepete]

if he wants if he wants to a boat

 

[IComeInPeace]

As far as his QO goes, I believe it was Drance who was pointing out on his podcast the other day that the team could go the rare route of taking him to arbitration to lower the QO (not sure what that is called).

His numbers are so far off of the kind of numbers you’d associate with a 7.5 million dollar QO that Boeser and his camp may be concerned enough to settle on an agreed amount lesser deal to avoid the risk of an arbitrators decision.

There is some clause in the CBA that allows for this according to Drance. The last time the Canucks went this route was with Mason Raymond a long time ago.

 

[mathonwy]

I’m sad for us and for Brock that this ducking team has wasted so much of his time.

I’ve never been the biggest fan of the flow but I could very much learn to be one for the right price and 7.5m is not even close to that price.

I am unsure.

Pro. Canuck draft pick. Best hair in team history. Had a really good but wasted season last season.

Con. Might have reoccurring issues from non-displaced fracture of transverse process in lower back from 2018. Sigh. Brock has an unreliable motor now and who knows in the future. Very very unfortunate injury.

 

[PavelBure10]

Would love to send him back home to Minnesota. I think the Canucks and Wild would make excellent trade partners. The Wild have some intriguing prospects in their system that the Canucks could use. The first player they would probably offer is Fiala. Definitely worth investigating though.

 

[Tomatoes11]

I hope it’s not for Fiala or anyone his age. If we move boeser it will have to be for someone with the potential to be Rantanen but will still be on an ELC when we start to compete in 3 to 5 years.

Guenther has a shot. But unfortunately dim was our GM. We have to take gambles like this that might not hit but that’s our only route.

Imagine if Benning had his way and we picked Glass over EP or if Detroit took Hughes and we got Zadina instead. We would be complete garbage even though we already are garbage, it could have been worse.

So it’s not as risky as the keep and overpay everyone crowd would like you to believe. You do hit eventually and get the benefits of a huge swing in fortunes. Do your research and dot all your i’s and your risks are minimized. Regardless of the risks, they are necessary to become a contender in our current situation.

Unload them all for super raw prospects and picks and go from there. None of this overager Fiala stuff who actually might get more money than Brock. Lol

 

[pitseleh]

You make fair and important points that I agree with. But not sure our forwards are that outta whack that you can't pay Boeser a "fair" deal.

…

EP @ $7.35m has been poor value so far, but most would probably agree that if he doesn't rebound to be worth his deal (and looking like he is getting there) then this is all moot anyway.

I agree with all of this. Particularly that if EP doesn’t turn it around the team is facing a massive uphill battle anyway.

My concern is around where the team will be in 2023/24, which is realistically when they should be hoping to compete. Pearson and Dickinson will likely be underwater if the team isn’t able to move them, Hoglander will be on his second contract, and I’m not sure Horvat will be providing much extra value either.

As you note, the defence is where the real problem lies - OEL, Myers, and Poolman will likely be underwater too. That means the team either needs to move out a few of the bad contracts or be incredibly efficient with the other spots on the roster, including up front.

 

[PG Canuck]

Yes, please yes. One dimensional player. Too slow. Move on before it’s too late. He is never going to be rookie Boeser again and we need to stop hoping he’ll magically become that again.

 

[MS]

Last 28 games at ES :

Brock Boeser - 3-3-6.

Juho Lammikko - 3-3-6.

 

[CherryToke]

He looks like an old man waiting for retirement most nights

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Last 28 games at ES :

Brock Boeser - 3-3-6.

Juho Lammikko - 3-3-6.

He plays almost 16 minutes a night at even strength too.

If trade Boeser, I would love to try to bring in Nino Niedereitter. Free agency is deep in forwards and he may be overlooked. If we can get him for 3-4 years at around the Toffoli cap hit it would be a no brainer. He gets almost 50 points a year getting 2nd line minutes and pp time. If we gave him Boeser's minutes, I don't think their production would be that different.

 

[MS]

He plays almost 16 minutes a night at even strength too.

If trade Boeser, I would love to try to bring in Nino Niedereitter. Free agency is deep in forwards and he may be overlooked. If we can get him for 3-4 years at around the Toffoli cap hit it would be a no brainer. He gets almost 50 points a year getting 2nd line minutes and pp time. If we gave him Boeser's minutes, I don't think their production would be that different.

Vladislav Namestnikov is another name where I wouldn't be shocked if he could generally replicate Boeser's numbers at a fraction of the price.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Vladislav Namestnikov is another name where I wouldn't be shocked if he could generally replicate Boeser's numbers at a fraction of the price.

Namestnikov is less proven and there is more risk of his production continuing, but he will be cheaper than Niederreiter though. Usually I want to save money on the bottom of the line up, to spend at the top. But with 1 dimensional wingers I think you have to get value as well. Especially in our situation. Even if Boeser wasn't struggling I would be questioning if he would be worth his next contract.

 

[mriswith]

Still haven't seen anyone explain why the expectation for Boeser moving forward is to replicate this outlier season instead of his 4 straight previous seasons of very consistent, very good even strength production. Or why the strength of this conviction is so strong that there is this huge sense of urgency to trade him for a 2nd.

I get the motivation to trade him based on his player profile and the tendency for guys like Boeser to be overpaid. I get the possible problem of his QO. I don't get the above two assumptions though.

 

[Tomatoes11]

Still haven't seen anyone explain why the expectation for Boeser moving forward is to replicate this outlier season instead of his 4 straight previous seasons of very consistent, very good even strength production. Or why the strength of this conviction is so strong that there is this huge sense of urgency to trade him for a 2nd.

I get the motivation to trade him based on his player profile and the tendency for guys like Boeser to be overpaid. I get the possible problem of his QO. I don't get the above two assumptions though.

He gets a damn good haul because of his previous seasons. He gets way more than a 2nd. It pretty much comes down to dollars. Whatever a haul he gets on elc’s beat the snot out of him at 7.5x8 or 8x8.

 

[MS]

Still haven't seen anyone explain why the expectation for Boeser moving forward is to replicate this outlier season instead of his 4 straight previous seasons of very consistent, very good even strength production. Or why the strength of this conviction is so strong that there is this huge sense of urgency to trade him for a 2nd.

I get the motivation to trade him based on his player profile and the tendency for guys like Boeser to be overpaid. I get the possible problem of his QO. I don't get the above two assumptions though.

I don't think he's a 44-point player in perpetuity.

But the most recent sample size is the most important, and he's been *absolutely godawful* this season. And he wasn't very good in 19-20, either. His shot looks awful. His skating looks awful. He's been terrible at ES.

He's a complementary scorer. Maybe he'll clear 60 points someday with a top C? But I think the most likely outcome is that he's a 50-55 point guy (who is also injury-prone) going forward. And there's no f***ing way you can give that sort of player a $7.5 million QO.

Most players peak between 20-25. And I think this is even more likely to be the case with Boeser given his wrist injuries and skating.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

I'm not against moving him, but it depends on what the return is, personally he's just a little slow and doesn't have the hands to be a passer, but he's got a decent shot but that's really all he's got, I'd rather have a Ovechkin at his age over a Boeser.

 

[mriswith]

I don't think he's a 44-point player in perpetuity.

But the most recent sample size is the most important, and he's been *absolutely godawful* this season. And he wasn't very good in 19-20, either. His shot looks awful. His skating looks awful. He's been terrible at ES.

He's a complementary scorer. Maybe he'll clear 60 points someday with a top C? But I think the most likely outcome is that he's a 50-55 point guy (who is also injury-prone) going forward. And there's no f***ing way you can give that sort of player a $7.5 million QO.

Most players peak between 20-25. And I think this is even more likely to be the case with Boeser given his wrist injuries and skating.

Why does the most recent sample size outweigh 4 straight past seasons? I wouldn't want to pay Kadri based on this season versus his past 4 seasons.

Boeser paced 46 even strength points per 82 games as an average of his last four seasons prior to this one. For reference, Miller has paced 47.5 even strength points per 82 games as a Canuck. General aging curves don't predict a 50% drop in production at 24 years old, it seems like a big stretch to predict even a smaller drop to 30ish even strength points going forward.

For the cap hit, I also don't see why we can't give him the worst case scenario 7.5Mx1 now that we're selling Miller et al for futures resolving the immediate cap crunch.

I agree that he looks very bad right now. He's a streaky player and we've seen him go through long stretches of looking like shit before this one. It makes you wonder about his offseason program and effort, which in addition to the other problems with him as a player is another reason I want to trade him.

I just don't see the urgency to sell low. If he is an excellent bounce back candidate then the worst case scenario of a 7.5M 1 year contract still generates a better trade return next year at the deadline with retention than we're expecting now.

 

[Nucker101]

I think he's better than what he's shown this year, especially as a scorer. Moneypuck has his expected goals at 16.8, so sadly you'd be selling low right now but at the same time I do think he's more of a luxury piece for a team and the Canucks have so many overpaid players that for the kind of money he makes and will make, they need someone who can drive offense through the neutral zone, something Brock is mediocre at.

Would prefer to keep Garland over Brock. But part of me wonders if JR has already fielded calls on Brock and is getting offered shit all so he's pivoted to shopping Garland who would undoubtedly be in high demand. Either that, or Garland isn't happy as a Canuck and expressed it to new management.

We all know Brock loves it here. He's been upset in the past when asked about trade rumours.