Are the pens going to the playoffs?

[JimmyTwoTimes]

I know a lot of people feel like the Penguins are backing into the playoffs, and I can totally understand why, but they're playing significantly better now than they were in March of 2017 and they ended up winning the cup.

Thats one of the problems right there. Instead of us comparing them to how they played during the last two regular seasons, we hold them to their playoff standard.

Been inconsistent in March but go look back at the games we won in January and February, when we were scoring 5+ goals a game against quality opponents. Putting ourselves in this position(2nd place and control own destiny) after a very slow start.

Only team that had our number during that stretch was New Jersey. Who we are playing tonight. Perfect time to treat this as a "playoff" type game.

Thats what im looking forward to. As long as theres no bad news on Brassard.

 

[ColePens]

To go off the last two posts... i see an inconsistent effort and focus. When i watch all other teams (devils, flyers, boston, etc) i see strengths and weaknesses. But our moments of laziness are far too often. It may cost them big time. Now we are in playoff mode now.

The only other team i watch who is struggling with focus is Tampa. They are struggling to focus to the end. And it enabled Boston to catch up.

 

[cheesedanish87]

Pretty good night last night for the pens with Florida losing.

I think Philly winning is also a good thing because if the Pens finish in the top 3 i think most fans would prefer to play Philly.

Flyers only have 1 tough game left against Boston, its a b2b for Boston, so Philly will have a chance to win out and maybe finish ahead of CBJ.

 

[Pancakes]

Pretty good night last night for the pens with Florida losing.

I think Philly winning is also a good thing because if the Pens finish in the top 3 i think most fans would prefer to play Philly.

Flyers only have 1 tough game left against Boston, its a b2b for Boston, so Philly will have a chance to win out and maybe finish ahead of CBJ.

I'm fine with either Philly or Columbus. We own Bob, and we've owned Philly as well. Either should in theory be good matchups.

As for tonight, I'd be content just with a point lol. f***in Devils just have it figured out against us this year. Their whole skating hard/fast thing is hard to deal with when half the time the Pens don't care to do either in the regular season.

 

[vikingGoalie]

I know a lot of people feel like the Penguins are backing into the playoffs, and I can totally understand why, but they're playing significantly better now than they were in March of 2017 and they ended up winning the cup.

I'm sure you have statistical #'s that lead you to that conclusion. But my eyeballs tell me a bit different (and maybe my forgetful brain as well) story. I do not recall us playing bottom feeders and making them look like world beaters. Though I will say this. The only reason we got through the first two rounds last playoffs was because our goal tender significantly out played the other teams goal tender.

Jesse I'm sure our Corsi looks just fine compared to last year. But the type of danger chances we give up, combined with our goalie playing way worse is a death spiral. I would be curious if you compared last year before the playoffs to this year, looking at 5v5 save percentage. Danger chances against (if that's even tracked) Our goal tending is pedestrian at best, and our defensive coverage has some shockingly bad lapses.

Matt Murray Stats | Hockey-Reference.com
Matt murray. QS%. this year 43%, last year 55%, first year 76%
GSAA which is an interesting stat. It measures goals saved above average, it's attempting to compare how goalies rate per average base on the # / type of shots faced.
For Matt. this year -7.26% (so worse then league average), last year 14.48% (significantly better), first year 5.23%

So the #'s backup what the eyes are seeing statistically we are only getting a quality start 43% of the time. I do not think Murray is a .907 save percentage goalie, and that he will be/get better. But it's very troubling.
For fairness comparing to our other goalies playing for the same team.
Tristan Jarry. GSAA is: -2.99% and save pct is: .908 QS% is 60.
and DeSmith, GSAA: 4%, save pct: .913, QS% is 60 as well.

So statistically out of our 3 goalies, Murray is playing the worst a 43% vs 60% quality start rate is troubling.

Now. a goalie's stats are intrinsically linked to the team around him and vice versa. Still the eyes show a different Murray this year. His rebound control has been way worse and he is not as calm in net on his really bad games. He also has lost his net badly at times. The long and short of this is. What I started it all off with. Our goal tending is a huge part of our problem right now. Not the only problem, not even close. But if the goal tending doesn't get a lot better we are flaming out in the first round.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I'm fine with either Philly or Columbus. We own Bob, and we've owned Philly as well. Either should in theory be good matchups.

As for tonight, I'd be content just with a point lol. ****in Devils just have it figured out against us this year. Their whole skating hard/fast thing is hard to deal with when half the time the Pens don't care to do either in the regular season.

Yeah, they have had success against Bob, but I'm not sure if that's going to last forever.

I'd prefer Elliott or whoever else Flyers play in the playoffs.

I feel pretty confident Pens will play a good game with a lot of urgency tonight.

That doesn't mean the Pens will win, but i think they will give a good effort like they did last week against NJ.

 

[Shady Machine]

I like that Florida team and wanted to see them make the playoffs. Bummer. For some reason, I really like Luongo and would like to see him have success.

 

[Pengwins]

I’d rather play Washington than Columbus.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I like that Florida team and wanted to see them make the playoffs. Bummer. For some reason, I really like Luongo and would like to see him have success.

It's not hard to see why. Luongo is an extremely likable personality and a great ambassador for the sport.

 

[Jesse]

I'm sure you have statistical #'s that lead you to that conclusion. But my eyeballs tell me a bit different (and maybe my forgetful brain as well) story. I do not recall us playing bottom feeders and making them look like world beaters. Though I will say this. The only reason we got through the first two rounds last playoffs was because our goal tender significantly out played the other teams goal tender.

In the final 10 games of the season last year, the Penguins were 4-4-2. They dropped a game to the Islanders that was a blowout until they crawled back at the end, had a 6-2 loss to the Flyers, a 5-1 loss to the Blackhawks, and I believe they dropped a game to the Canes in there as well.

Goaltending is the great equalizer here. From a shots, scoring chances, and expected goals perspective, the 2017/18 Penguins defend and attack way better than the 2016/17 Penguins did. The difference? Shooting percentage (which is just now starting to normalize) and goaltending.

If the Penguins don't win a cup this year, it won't be because they aren't playing well. It'll be their poor goaltending that bites them.

 

[Andy99]

In the final 10 games of the season last year, the Penguins were 4-4-2. They dropped a game to the Islanders that was a blowout until they crawled back at the end, had a 6-2 loss to the Flyers, a 5-1 loss to the Blackhawks, and I believe they dropped a game to the Canes in there as well.

Goaltending is the great equalizer here. From a shots, scoring chances, and expected goals perspective, the 2017/18 Penguins defend and attack way better than the 2016/17 Penguins did. The difference? Shooting percentage (which is just now starting to normalize) and goaltending.

If the Penguins don't win a cup this year, it won't be because they aren't playing well. It'll be their poor goaltending that bites them.

Thank you for confirming what I’ve been saying and my concerns about Murray...

 

[ncm7772]

If the Penguins don't win a cup this year, it won't be because they aren't playing well. It'll be their poor goaltending that bites them.

Wait, what? That literally implies that "Oh, they can win the Cup when not playing well."

Makes sense to me !

 

[Shady Machine]

I'm concerned about goaltending too, but the eye test says that the Pens have been giving up a crazy amount of high quality scoring chances. Higher than last year? Not sure, but the breakdowns have been crazy. Murray needs to be better, no doubt, but team defense needs to tighten up as well.

 

[zero8771]

Wait, what? That literally implies that "Oh, they can win the Cup when not playing well."

Makes sense to me !

No it doesn't

 

[ncm7772]

No it doesn't

I thought my sarcasm was evident.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I'm concerned about goaltending too, but the eye test says that the Pens have been giving up a crazy amount of high quality scoring chances. Higher than last year? Not sure, but the breakdowns have been crazy. Murray needs to be better, no doubt, but team defense needs to tighten up as well.

It seems teams get too many shots from down the middle within that 10 feet range which given enough opportunities every goalie will give up goals.

Need the forwards to get back and play a more structured team defense, keep them shooting from out wide. If that happens there will ways to beat us but it’d take a great effort because we will still score plenty.

 

[vikingGoalie]

In the final 10 games of the season last year, the Penguins were 4-4-2. They dropped a game to the Islanders that was a blowout until they crawled back at the end, had a 6-2 loss to the Flyers, a 5-1 loss to the Blackhawks, and I believe they dropped a game to the Canes in there as well.

Goaltending is the great equalizer here. From a shots, scoring chances, and expected goals perspective, the 2017/18 Penguins defend and attack way better than the 2016/17 Penguins did. The difference? Shooting percentage (which is just now starting to normalize) and goaltending.

If the Penguins don't win a cup this year, it won't be because they aren't playing well. It'll be their poor goaltending that bites them.

thanks Jesse! that is kinda my fear. that goaltending is gonna do us in.

 

[Gurglesons]

thanks Jesse! that is kinda my fear. that goaltending is gonna do us in.

True test for Murray. He knows how he is playing. I haven’t seen a playoff game where he looks like Bad Fleury.

 

[vikingGoalie]

It seems teams get too many shots from down the middle within that 10 feet range which given enough opportunities every goalie will give up goals.

Need the forwards to get back and play a more structured team defense, keep them shooting from out wide. If that happens there will ways to beat us but it’d take a great effort because we will still score plenty.

I agree with this in general and why I still say goal tending is just one of our issues (but a big one). But you can only dress up a 43% quality start and a .907 save percentage so many ways. At some point the goalie gets some of that blame. Especially when you consider the backups are at 60% QS, and they have started 33 games vs Murray's 41 so it's a comparable sample size.

 

[Jesse]

Wait, what? That literally implies that "Oh, they can win the Cup when not playing well."

Makes sense to me !

Do you think they carried the better of the play in the Capitals series last year? Or did they escape getting outplayed because their goaltending was absurdly go?

 

[Tom Hanks]

I agree with this in general and why I still say goal tending is just one of our issues (but a big one). But you can only dress up a 43% quality start and a .907 save percentage so many ways. At some point the goalie gets some of that blame. Especially when you consider the backups are at 60% QS, and they have started 33 games vs Murray's 41 so it's a comparable sample size.

Interestingly enough I just calculated these numbers:

Murray SV%
34 shots or more = .925 SV%
33 shots or less = .896 SV%

 

[rick6668]

5 points out of the last 10 almost assuredly get them in. Wins against NJ and Columbus in REG will likely keep them in the 2-3 slot and out of the WC.

Division is pretty much gone, which is unfortunate with their home/away record this year.

Hope they can pull off a win tonight to relieve some of the pressure.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Honestly, I'd laugh if we missed the playoffs. It'd be absurd. I'd rather we make it (and win another Cup, obviously), but if we missed by losing these last handful of games I'd just kinda chuckle and shrug.

 

[ncm7772]

Do you think they carried the better of the play in the Capitals series last year? Or did they escape getting outplayed because their goaltending was absurdly go?

When you say something like the above, I understand your point.

When you say essentially, "They can be bad, but will win with good goaltending", that to me, is a bit different than what you posted above.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

Honestly, I'd laugh if we missed the playoffs. It'd be absurd. I'd rather we make it (and win another Cup, obviously), but if we missed by losing these last handful of games I'd just kinda chuckle and shrug.

At least no team would be able to say "we knocked out the reigning back to back champs"