Appetite for 2019 RFA Offer Sheet

Discussion in 'Detroit Red Wings' started by Hen Kolland, Feb 7, 2019.

  1. TCNorthstars

    TCNorthstars Registered User

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    They would definitely match. They have a lot of cap space.
     
  2. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    Why should player expect that they are gonna miss the playoffs, if the current team misses the playoffs?

    Marner would be huge add and change us to a playoff team.

    I'm not saying that he would join, but I hate this default thinking, that team would not be any better if some super-level player joins. That's foolish thinking. Team gets better for christ sakes by a mile.

    And in general:

    A) That Elite guy raises the team level drastically
    B) we have extra cap space to bolster us even more
    C) the growth from our youth will make us also a better team

    If we get one Elite player to our team outside our team, we are a playoff team at next season. I would guarantee it. The league is so close nowadays.
     
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  3. Hammettf2b

    Hammettf2b Wings

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    No he wouldn't. This team is more than a single piece away from the playoffs.
     
  4. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    You still missed my point.
     
  5. Hammettf2b

    Hammettf2b Wings

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    I wasn't addressing your other point. I was addressing your point that "If we get one Elite player to our team outside our team, we are a playoff team at next season. I would guarantee it"
     
  6. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    Replace Vanek with Marner this year, where do you think the team is? We have 15 games (if I counted correctly) which were lost by a single goal. That doesn’t include games where the team added an empty netter to win by two. Add Marner’s 100 point pace this year (obviously circumstantial to his team) to the Wings with Hronek and Cholowski being regulars. Rasmussen with a full year of experience and offseason work, Zadina possibly being ready to make the jump, and take out Vanek’s pace for like 40 points. You don’t think this team is planted in the wild card bubble? I don’t know. The team is obviously not contending for cups next year, but with logical next steps in progression of our core and adding an elite talent would be something to see.
     
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  7. Hammettf2b

    Hammettf2b Wings

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    Still not a playoff team especially this year. I don't think Marner would put up anywhere close to the numbers he puts up in Toronto. Just my 2 cents.
     
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  8. RedWingzz

    RedWingzz Registered User

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    Ken Holland seems to think we are a playoff team next year as is...
     
  9. Frk It

    Frk It From Z to Z

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    Real easy to say when you don’t have to work with them and attend meeting/events with your peers.

    The league is set up so teams can take advantage of players during their cost-controlled (RFA) years. By offer sheeting someone, you are ruining the benefit for that team everyone else enjoys. If you think that’s not gonna piss people off and potentially alienate yourself, you’re crazy.

    Maybe in time people get over it or those emotions die down, but it absolutely will cause waves and it’s a very real reason you don’t see it done that often. No one wants to be “that guy” among their group of peers.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2019
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  10. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    No doubt he would have a step back from his current rate. But if Larkin can pace for 80 points on this team, why would Marner not be able to be a PPG+ performer?
     
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  11. Hammettf2b

    Hammettf2b Wings

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    I can see him getting close to that, especially if he plays with Larkin. If he doesn't play with Larkin, not so much. Also, I think our goaltending doesn't match this years performance. Our defense will be younger, therefore more mistakes, albeit better offensively. In order for this team to make the playoffs, some young players need to make some drastic improvements. I just don't see that happening.
     
  12. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    You're right, it's almost as easy as it is to sit on your hands and do nothing but blindfold yourself and throw darts at a board for the next 4 years and hope to hit a bulls eye that is constantly moving. I work in finance for a manufacturing company overseeing two facilities; my entire job is being "that guy" that shows up and tells people that they are doing their job at a level half of what is expected and need to do better. At a certain point in time, you stop being afraid of stepping on toes because your job is to be the "that guy" that does what's necessary to start making progress and recording wins for your company.

    Listen, I understand the fear surrounding giving up too many picks, or overpaying on the contract, but I'm not going to subscribe to this belief that attempting to sign a single player to an offer sheet is going to ruin relationships across the league and set us back. The RFA rule has nothing to do with teams being able to take advantage of their cost controlled years; it has everything to do with helping organizations hedge the risk of players wanting to bolt from the organization as soon as possible because they don't want to be there. If a different team wants a player and the current team wants the player, the current team will win. But if the current team won't, or can't, pay what another team values the player at, then they lose the right to keep the player; but they will always be compensated with the means to potentially replace them. This isn't baseball; every team has the same exact playing field to build your roster. Nothing prevents that team from matching whatever they need to keep the player except their own decisions and desires. I want to play chess while everyone else is playing checkers.
     
  13. Ezekial

    Ezekial

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    I mean, Marner would play with Larkin. Those two together would be an unreal defensive/offensive line.
     
  14. Hammettf2b

    Hammettf2b Wings

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    I agree. I just don't think it would be good enough to make the playoffs. Look at the Avs. They prob have the best top line in the league and they are struggling to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.
     
  15. Ezekial

    Ezekial

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    I don't think it guarantees a playoff spot, but I could see it. This team hasn't been near as woeful as some would believe.
     
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  16. Hammettf2b

    Hammettf2b Wings

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    Only one way to find out. Acquire Marner!!!
     
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  17. Fire Ken Holland

    Fire Ken Holland into outer space

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    It's not the same thing, though. The other GMs aren't your employees. They're not your subordinates. They're your peers, and you depend on them. You might be working with them in the next job, because it's a tiny industry. The things that benefit them are the things that benefit you, too. It's in everyone's interest to stay cordial, at the very minimum.

    Behind the scenes, everyone is just trying to keep their jobs. My hunch is that there's an unspoken agreement that you won't go out of your way to do anything to harm another GM's job security. That's IMO a big reason why offer sheets aren't done. It's doing exactly that. If you match, your cap is blown to hell and could get you fired down the line for bad cap management or simply poor team quality. If you can't or don't match, you might have just been pushed into a rebuild when you aren't ready for one. And more importantly, when ownership isn't ready for one. That's an easy way to get fired.

    So this sort of thing is taken very seriously. If you do it, you broke the code and suddenly a lot of your calls may go unanswered. If other GMs won't deal with you when you need them to, you're screwed. And when the rest of the league starts offer sheeting your guys because you offer sheeted someone else's, you will likely regret you ever did.
     
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  18. ricky0034

    ricky0034 Registered User

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    I feel like you're reading way too much into this stuff,to the point of creating an entire fictional world of consequences in your head

    name one example of a retaliatory offer sheet,as far as I know that is literally something that has never happened

    same thing with the whole calls going unanswered thing,that sounds like nothing more than speculation

    Paul Holmgren made a lot of trades for example,in the 2012 offseason he did that Weber offersheet

    he ended up spending 2 more seasons as a GM and made 12 more trades with a wide variety of different teams,I see no evidence of "a lot of his calls going unanswered" here


    maybe GMs refrain from doing it as often as they could out of respect but I see no evidence of any sort of dire consequences for using offer sheets by any stretch of the imagination
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2019
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  19. SirloinUB

    SirloinUB Registered User

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    I think the main reason you see so few offer sheets is its just such a rare situation where it both makes sense and is feasible.

    Think about it, If you don't think you can contend next year it doesn't make much sense to give up picks. Right off the bat an offer-sheet doesn't make sense for many teams.

    Moving past that, you need cap space to bring back all your guys plus add a talented player; a struggle for many teams that think they are in a contending spot. Next you need to find a player that actually wants to leave his current situation. But not only that, the offer must be structured in a way that their current team can't/wont accept the offer.

    It's rare to find the right confluence of factors that would facilitate a successful offer-sheet. I'd say relationship management is part of it but the reality is more often than not it just doesn't make sense/isn't feasible.
     
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  20. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    Former off-seasons haven't had this kind of base for offer-sheets like there is now.

    Toronto is having too many good young players and same for Jets. They are in cap hell. It's crazy how it goes, because either team hasn't won anything. They just have to pay for potential.

    It makes those sheets more possible than for a while. Comparing on the past is not reality. We live now in a different reality.
     
  21. Shaman464

    Shaman464 #FireHolland

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    I wouldn't count on this. Trades will occur. The cap will increase by its normal 7-10% making adding another contract easier. Don't count your summers until they hatch.
     
  22. Henkka

    Henkka Registered User

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    I know these things. But it still raises the probability for offer-sheets, like all freaking reporters are also telling for us.
     
  23. Shaman464

    Shaman464 #FireHolland

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    I just don't see it. They are high risk intermediate reward. It also opens a team up to turn about being fair play.
     
  24. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    I think what you mean is that it’s high cost, not high risk. In fact, I’d say signing a Marner or a Werenski to an offer sheet is lower risk than waiting to see if you drafted well in 2020.

    But if you’d rather take you chances at the draft, I do understand; I’m expecting that we won’t be making an attempt like this at the end of the day. Just thought it would be a fun topic to get us through a little lull before the trade deadline storm.
     
  25. Shaman464

    Shaman464 #FireHolland

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    Its high risk because you'll have to pay a player a premium, above what a team that has drafted them and developed them is willing to pay to retain then, hoping that they will live up to that contract. This is inherently risky. If a player doesn't live up to their expectations, then you're saddle with a bad contract for years.
     

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