Appetite for 2019 RFA Offer Sheet

[TCNorthstars]

I'd absolutely overpay for Juolevi, something like 3.8m to keep the 1st. Forces Vancouver to pay more than they want to. Even if we make it for a few years and not add too much term.

They would definitely match. They have a lot of cap space.

 

[Henkka]

I think they would. For example, Mitch Marner. Marner likely would not sign in Detroit just to miss the playoffs on a mediocre team when he can get basically the same amount and stay in Toronto and contend for cups.

Why should player expect that they are gonna miss the playoffs, if the current team misses the playoffs?

Marner would be huge add and change us to a playoff team.

I'm not saying that he would join, but I hate this default thinking, that team would not be any better if some super-level player joins. That's foolish thinking. Team gets better for christ sakes by a mile.

And in general:

A) That Elite guy raises the team level drastically
B) we have extra cap space to bolster us even more
C) the growth from our youth will make us also a better team

If we get one Elite player to our team outside our team, we are a playoff team at next season. I would guarantee it. The league is so close nowadays.

 

[Hammettf2b]

Why should player expect that they are gonna miss the playoffs, if the current team misses the playoffs?

Marner would be huge add and change us to a playoff team.

I'm not saying that he would join, but I hate this default thinking, that team would not be any better if some super-level player joins. That's foolish thinking. Team gets better for christ sakes by a mile.

And in general:

A) That Elite guy raises the team level drastically
B) we have extra cap space to bolster us even more
C) the growth from our youth will make us also a better team

If we get one Elite player to our team outside our team, we are a playoff team at next season. I would guarantee it. The league is so close nowadays.

No he wouldn't. This team is more than a single piece away from the playoffs.

 

[Henkka]

No he wouldn't. This team is more than a single piece away from the playoffs.

You still missed my point.

 

[Hammettf2b]

You still missed my point.

I wasn't addressing your other point. I was addressing your point that "If we get one Elite player to our team outside our team, we are a playoff team at next season. I would guarantee it"

 

[Hen Kolland]

I wasn't addressing your other point. I was addressing your point that "If we get one Elite player to our team outside our team, we are a playoff team at next season. I would guarantee it"

Replace Vanek with Marner this year, where do you think the team is? We have 15 games (if I counted correctly) which were lost by a single goal. That doesn’t include games where the team added an empty netter to win by two. Add Marner’s 100 point pace this year (obviously circumstantial to his team) to the Wings with Hronek and Cholowski being regulars. Rasmussen with a full year of experience and offseason work, Zadina possibly being ready to make the jump, and take out Vanek’s pace for like 40 points. You don’t think this team is planted in the wild card bubble? I don’t know. The team is obviously not contending for cups next year, but with logical next steps in progression of our core and adding an elite talent would be something to see.

 

[Hammettf2b]

Replace Vanek with Marner this year, where do you think the team is? We have 15 games (if I counted correctly) which were lost by a single goal. That doesn’t include games where the team added an empty netter to win by two. Add Marner’s 100 point pace this year (obviously circumstantial to his team) to the Wings with Hronek and Cholowski being regulars. Rasmussen with a full year of experience and offseason work, Zadina possibly being ready to make the jump, and take out Vanek’s pace for like 40 points. You don’t think this team is planted in the wild card bubble? I don’t know. The team is obviously not contending for cups next year, but with logical next steps in progression of our core and adding an elite talent would be something to see.

Still not a playoff team especially this year. I don't think Marner would put up anywhere close to the numbers he puts up in Toronto. Just my 2 cents.

 

[RedWingzz]

We're not there yet IMO.

I'm not convinced this would be a playoff team next year even with a first overall pick, a coveted free agent (Stone, Karlsson, Duchene, etc), Veleno, Zadina and an offer sheet RFA.

I'd prefer they waited another year before they thought about offer sheets, although I prefer they just didn't do one at all. Not having first round picks for four years would make it hard to build for the future and this team would need to succeed immediately for it to be worthwhile. You already have Boston, Tampa and Toronto who will probably be playoff locks for a while in the Atlantic, and Buffalo who is trending ahead of us.

Don't even know who the prospective 2020 RFAs would be anyways.

Ken Holland seems to think we are a playoff team next year as is...

 

[Frk It]

I guess where you lost me in this whole part is when you decided to give a damn about what the other team thinks or feels about your behavior? We are here to win cups, not make friends.

Real easy to say when you don’t have to work with them and attend meeting/events with your peers.

The league is set up so teams can take advantage of players during their cost-controlled (RFA) years. By offer sheeting someone, you are ruining the benefit for that team everyone else enjoys. If you think that’s not gonna piss people off and potentially alienate yourself, you’re crazy.

Maybe in time people get over it or those emotions die down, but it absolutely will cause waves and it’s a very real reason you don’t see it done that often. No one wants to be “that guy” among their group of peers.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Still not a playoff team especially this year. I don't think Marner would put up anywhere close to the numbers he puts up in Toronto. Just my 2 cents.

No doubt he would have a step back from his current rate. But if Larkin can pace for 80 points on this team, why would Marner not be able to be a PPG+ performer?

 

[Hammettf2b]

No doubt he would have a step back from his current rate. But if Larkin can pace for 80 points on this team, why would Marner not be able to be a PPG+ performer?

I can see him getting close to that, especially if he plays with Larkin. If he doesn't play with Larkin, not so much. Also, I think our goaltending doesn't match this years performance. Our defense will be younger, therefore more mistakes, albeit better offensively. In order for this team to make the playoffs, some young players need to make some drastic improvements. I just don't see that happening.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Real easy to say when you don’t have to work with them and attend meeting/events with your peers.

The league is set up so teams can take advantage of players during their cost-controlled (RFA) years. By offer sheeting someone, you are ruining the benefit for that team everyone else enjoys. If you think that’s not gonna piss people off and potentially alienate yourself, you’re crazy.

Maybe in time people get over it or those emotions die down, but it absolutely will cause waves and it’s a very real reason you don’t see it don’t that often. No one wants to be “that guy” among their group of peers.

You're right, it's almost as easy as it is to sit on your hands and do nothing but blindfold yourself and throw darts at a board for the next 4 years and hope to hit a bulls eye that is constantly moving. I work in finance for a manufacturing company overseeing two facilities; my entire job is being "that guy" that shows up and tells people that they are doing their job at a level half of what is expected and need to do better. At a certain point in time, you stop being afraid of stepping on toes because your job is to be the "that guy" that does what's necessary to start making progress and recording wins for your company.

Listen, I understand the fear surrounding giving up too many picks, or overpaying on the contract, but I'm not going to subscribe to this belief that attempting to sign a single player to an offer sheet is going to ruin relationships across the league and set us back. The RFA rule has nothing to do with teams being able to take advantage of their cost controlled years; it has everything to do with helping organizations hedge the risk of players wanting to bolt from the organization as soon as possible because they don't want to be there. If a different team wants a player and the current team wants the player, the current team will win. But if the current team won't, or can't, pay what another team values the player at, then they lose the right to keep the player; but they will always be compensated with the means to potentially replace them. This isn't baseball; every team has the same exact playing field to build your roster. Nothing prevents that team from matching whatever they need to keep the player except their own decisions and desires. I want to play chess while everyone else is playing checkers.

 

[Ezekial]

I can see him getting close to that, especially if he plays with Larkin. If he doesn't play with Larkin, not so much. Also, I think our goaltending doesn't match this years performance. Our defense will be younger, therefore more mistakes, albeit better offensively. In order for this team to make the playoffs, some young players need to make some drastic improvements. I just don't see that happening.

I mean, Marner would play with Larkin. Those two together would be an unreal defensive/offensive line.

 

[Hammettf2b]

I mean, Marner would play with Larkin. Those two together would be an unreal defensive/offensive line.

I agree. I just don't think it would be good enough to make the playoffs. Look at the Avs. They prob have the best top line in the league and they are struggling to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

 

[Ezekial]

I agree. I just don't think it would be good enough to make the playoffs. Look at the Avs. They prob have the best top line in the league and they are struggling to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

I don't think it guarantees a playoff spot, but I could see it. This team hasn't been near as woeful as some would believe.

 

[Hammettf2b]

I don't think it guarantees a playoff spot, but I could see it. This team hasn't been near as woeful as some would believe.

Only one way to find out. Acquire Marner!!!

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

You're right, it's almost as easy as it is to sit on your hands and do nothing but blindfold yourself and throw darts at a board for the next 4 years and hope to hit a bulls eye that is constantly moving. I work in finance for a manufacturing company overseeing two facilities; my entire job is being "that guy" that shows up and tells people that they are doing their job at a level half of what is expected and need to do better. At a certain point in time, you stop being afraid of stepping on toes because your job is to be the "that guy" that does what's necessary to start making progress and recording wins for your company.

It's not the same thing, though. The other GMs aren't your employees. They're not your subordinates. They're your peers, and you depend on them. You might be working with them in the next job, because it's a tiny industry. The things that benefit them are the things that benefit you, too. It's in everyone's interest to stay cordial, at the very minimum.

Behind the scenes, everyone is just trying to keep their jobs. My hunch is that there's an unspoken agreement that you won't go out of your way to do anything to harm another GM's job security. That's IMO a big reason why offer sheets aren't done. It's doing exactly that. If you match, your cap is blown to hell and could get you fired down the line for bad cap management or simply poor team quality. If you can't or don't match, you might have just been pushed into a rebuild when you aren't ready for one. And more importantly, when ownership isn't ready for one. That's an easy way to get fired.

So this sort of thing is taken very seriously. If you do it, you broke the code and suddenly a lot of your calls may go unanswered. If other GMs won't deal with you when you need them to, you're screwed. And when the rest of the league starts offer sheeting your guys because you offer sheeted someone else's, you will likely regret you ever did.

 

[ricky0034]

It's not the same thing, though. The other GMs aren't your employees. They're not your subordinates. They're your peers, and you depend on them. You might be working with them in the next job, because it's a tiny industry. The things that benefit them are the things that benefit you, too. It's in everyone's interest to stay cordial, at the very minimum.

Behind the scenes, everyone is just trying to keep their jobs. My hunch is that there's an unspoken agreement that you won't go out of your way to do anything to harm another GM's job security. That's IMO a big reason why offer sheets aren't done. It's doing exactly that. If you match, your cap is blown to hell and could get you fired down the line for bad cap management or simply poor team quality. If you can't or don't match, you might have just been pushed into a rebuild when you aren't ready for one. And more importantly, when ownership isn't ready for one. That's an easy way to get fired.

So this sort of thing is taken very seriously. If you do it, you broke the code and suddenly a lot of your calls may go unanswered. If other GMs won't deal with you when you need them to, you're screwed. And when the rest of the league starts offer sheeting your guys because you offer sheeted someone else's, you will likely regret you ever did.

I feel like you're reading way too much into this stuff,to the point of creating an entire fictional world of consequences in your head

name one example of a retaliatory offer sheet,as far as I know that is literally something that has never happened

same thing with the whole calls going unanswered thing,that sounds like nothing more than speculation

Paul Holmgren made a lot of trades for example,in the 2012 offseason he did that Weber offersheet

he ended up spending 2 more seasons as a GM and made 12 more trades with a wide variety of different teams,I see no evidence of "a lot of his calls going unanswered" here


maybe GMs refrain from doing it as often as they could out of respect but I see no evidence of any sort of dire consequences for using offer sheets by any stretch of the imagination

 

[SirloinUB]

I think the main reason you see so few offer sheets is its just such a rare situation where it both makes sense and is feasible.

Think about it, If you don't think you can contend next year it doesn't make much sense to give up picks. Right off the bat an offer-sheet doesn't make sense for many teams.

Moving past that, you need cap space to bring back all your guys plus add a talented player; a struggle for many teams that think they are in a contending spot. Next you need to find a player that actually wants to leave his current situation. But not only that, the offer must be structured in a way that their current team can't/wont accept the offer.

It's rare to find the right confluence of factors that would facilitate a successful offer-sheet. I'd say relationship management is part of it but the reality is more often than not it just doesn't make sense/isn't feasible.

 

[Henkka]

Former off-seasons haven't had this kind of base for offer-sheets like there is now.

Toronto is having too many good young players and same for Jets. They are in cap hell. It's crazy how it goes, because either team hasn't won anything. They just have to pay for potential.

It makes those sheets more possible than for a while. Comparing on the past is not reality. We live now in a different reality.

 

[Shaman464]

Former off-seasons haven't had this kind of base for offer-sheets like there is now.

Toronto is having too many good young players and same for Jets. They are in cap hell. It's crazy how it goes, because either team hasn't won anything. They just have to pay for potential.

It makes those sheets more possible than for a while. Comparing on the past is not reality. We live now in a different reality.

I wouldn't count on this. Trades will occur. The cap will increase by its normal 7-10% making adding another contract easier. Don't count your summers until they hatch.

 

[Henkka]

I wouldn't count on this. Trades will occur. The cap will increase by its normal 7-10% making adding another contract easier. Don't count your summers until they hatch.

I know these things. But it still raises the probability for offer-sheets, like all freaking reporters are also telling for us.

 

[Shaman464]

I know these things. But it still raises the probability for offer-sheets, like all freaking reporters are also telling for us.

I just don't see it. They are high risk intermediate reward. It also opens a team up to turn about being fair play.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I just don't see it. They are high risk intermediate reward. It also opens a team up to turn about being fair play.

I think what you mean is that it’s high cost, not high risk. In fact, I’d say signing a Marner or a Werenski to an offer sheet is lower risk than waiting to see if you drafted well in 2020.

But if you’d rather take you chances at the draft, I do understand; I’m expecting that we won’t be making an attempt like this at the end of the day. Just thought it would be a fun topic to get us through a little lull before the trade deadline storm.

 

[Shaman464]

I think what you mean is that it’s high cost, not high risk. In fact, I’d say signing a Marner or a Werenski to an offer sheet is lower risk than waiting to see if you drafted well in 2020.

But if you’d rather take you chances at the draft, I do understand; I’m expecting that we won’t be making an attempt like this at the end of the day. Just thought it would be a fun topic to get us through a little lull before the trade deadline storm.

Its high risk because you'll have to pay a player a premium, above what a team that has drafted them and developed them is willing to pay to retain then, hoping that they will live up to that contract. This is inherently risky. If a player doesn't live up to their expectations, then you're saddle with a bad contract for years.