Appetite for 2019 RFA Offer Sheet

Discussion in 'Detroit Red Wings' started by Hen Kolland, Feb 7, 2019.

  1. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2018
    Messages:
    1,290
    Likes Received:
    755
    Trophy Points:
    84
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Financial Analyst
    Total pipe dream would be if we could pull off the Werenski portion, while Winnipeg and Trouba go the qualifying offer route. At the end of 2019-20 Trouba hits UFA status and we give him the treatment we would give Karlsson, as far as paying him what it takes to get him here. Imagine having a Werenski-Trouba first pairing for the foreseeable future, supplemented by Cholowski, Hronek, McIsaac etc.
     
  2. tsweeney

    tsweeney Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2012
    Messages:
    4,606
    Likes Received:
    1,091
    Trophy Points:
    109
    I wasn't saying so much that I would want to give them up... but that you are asking a lot to have even four 1st round picks give you what you'd land if you signed Auston Matthews. There is a very high likelihood that he's worth what all four of them would be. And that's not even anticipating bad drafting.

    I guess it was more used as a barometer that what draft picks actually turn into on average are far less than what you think. And if the options are 100% landing a generational talent by paying a lot of money and 4 1st rounders or rolling the dice and hoping that you get the same or more value out of those four firsts, I go with the lock.

    Think of it like this. The game show deal or no deal. You can either have four cases of your choice or pay 250,000 and be guaranteed the $1M case. What is the likelihood that the four cases you have equal or surpass 750,000 in value?

    And again, the Wings have been getting a bunch of extra picks and have several rental type pieces that could land more. They actually have reasonably priced guys and have in multiple TDLs that could feasibly draw a high second or low first. I'd only consider an offersheet as part of a gigantic plan to supplement my draft stock before I do it, so I'm not left without draft picks, and for a guy at the level of an Auston Matthews. So, yeah, it's a very conditional thing, but I don't think that it's belittling your draft record to do it in that case.

    Doing it for a Jacob Trouba type (4 1sts level) is lunacy. But draft picks are kinda Schrodinger's assets. They're always worth way more than they're truly worth (prior to the draft) and WAY less than they were (after the draft)
     
  3. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

    Joined:
    May 26, 2015
    Messages:
    10,553
    Likes Received:
    3,478
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Location:
    Ontario
    I hate the idea of waiting until 2020 to go after free agents. The abundance of awesome RFAs/FAs this offseason are gonna raise the prices for future players so much.
     
    Nightmare on Helm St and Ezekial like this.
  4. Frk It

    Frk It From Z to Z

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2010
    Messages:
    26,874
    Likes Received:
    2,944
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Pittsburgh, PA
    Even still, I just don’t think it’s very practical.

    The only guy I’d really try this for is Werenski, and with guys like Werenski or Trouba, I’d rather just take my crack at those guys as UFA’s. Or offer a trade a package less than the comepensation of the offer sheet and get them without the crazy cap hit.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
  5. TCNorthstars

    TCNorthstars Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,229
    Likes Received:
    322
    Trophy Points:
    124
    Location:
    Traverse City, MI
    The problem is that you are throwing bricks of cash AND 4 first round picks at a Werenski or a Trouba. For Karlsson, it is just the cash (and it would be more like $11-12 million than 8).
     
    Nightmare on Helm St likes this.
  6. Funky Cold Zadina

    Funky Cold Zadina Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2008
    Messages:
    4,091
    Likes Received:
    128
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Andreas Johnsson would be another FW I would look at. Kapanen and Marner will be everyone's focus, but Johnsson could be a casualty.
     
  7. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2018
    Messages:
    1,290
    Likes Received:
    755
    Trophy Points:
    84
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Financial Analyst
    This is unequivocally false. Won't disagree with the Karlsson part, he probably comes in closer to $10-$11, but that's neither here nor there. The issue I have is you are making some assumption that I'm making an offer of almost $10.25 million. I like both Trouba and Werenski (that being said, I would only sign an offer sheet for Werenski), but neither have played at high enough levels to have RFA status and command a salary that sniffs the range of 4 first round picks. I could offer Werenski $8.11 million, a number that I think is even overshooting what Columbus would be comfortable with, and it would cost me a first, second, and a third round pick. A 22 year old who steps in as a top pairing defenseman is not something you should be able to acquire for that price on the trade market, and if you could, you'd be giving him a big raise either way.
     
  8. TCNorthstars

    TCNorthstars Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,229
    Likes Received:
    322
    Trophy Points:
    124
    Location:
    Traverse City, MI
    That is the point though. You are going to have to overpay to get these guys. Columbus will match 8.11 million for Werenski. What term were you thinking anyway?
     
  9. ricky0034

    ricky0034 Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2010
    Messages:
    10,054
    Likes Received:
    1,259
    Trophy Points:
    139
    especially since they're probably losing Panarin and Bobrovsky this offseason

    there's literally a zero percent chance they wouldn't just match that offer sheet
     
  10. Dotter

    Dotter RIP Fugu

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2014
    Messages:
    5,721
    Likes Received:
    501
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Home Page:
    Offer sheets are entertaining for the fans, but pretty ignorant overall. Unless there's a team in a very unique situation and the player they want team's in a unique situation, then it's just terrible asset management.

    You won't see KH offersheet anyone in the cap world. He's too smart for that.
     
  11. Winger98

    Winger98 Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2002
    Messages:
    18,993
    Likes Received:
    998
    Trophy Points:
    214
    Location:
    Cleveland
    On the Trouba note, it might be interesting to float him a deal that Winny would have to match and which would pave his way for free agency. I think that would be a two year deal? Don't send it with any hope of getting him with that deal, but in letting him know the Wings are interested and that they are basically clearing the road for it to happen.
     
    marcmadsen likes this.
  12. Fire Ken Holland

    Fire Ken Holland into outer space

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2005
    Messages:
    14,542
    Likes Received:
    1,285
    Trophy Points:
    169
    Location:
    Uranus
    Let's try to remember that the player has to sign the offer sheet. I think few players would sign, knowing that they could end up in Detroit if it goes sideways. And if they don't end up in Detroit, that's a great way to foster drama and division. Not everyone gets as long a leash as Fedorov did.
     
  13. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

    Joined:
    May 26, 2015
    Messages:
    10,553
    Likes Received:
    3,478
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Location:
    Ontario
    With panarin and Bobrovsky on the way out of Columbus they'll easily able to match an offer sheet for werenski
     
  14. Voodoo Glow Skulls

    Voodoo Glow Skulls Formerly Vatican Roulette Sponsor

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2017
    Messages:
    1,746
    Likes Received:
    483
    Trophy Points:
    69
    Gender:
    Male
    No. With rebuild going on, offersheets are a bad idea.
     
  15. DInTheB

    DInTheB Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2006
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    192
    Trophy Points:
    91
    My belief is that you pursue an offer sheet if you’re getting an elite 1C or elite 1D. I think Point is an elite 1C. I don’t think that type of D is out there to offer sheet this summer.
     
  16. Ezekial

    Ezekial

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2015
    Messages:
    11,621
    Likes Received:
    3,052
    Trophy Points:
    147
    Location:
    Chicago
    Point wouldn't sign an offer sheet to come to Detroit. I think he's going to fall in line and sign a lucrative but modest deal like the rest of his boys in Tampa. I'm sure he loves it there.
     
  17. Frk It

    Frk It From Z to Z

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2010
    Messages:
    26,874
    Likes Received:
    2,944
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Pittsburgh, PA
    You think they would not sign something that gives them a huge pay raise? Doubtful.
     
  18. Fire Ken Holland

    Fire Ken Holland into outer space

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2005
    Messages:
    14,542
    Likes Received:
    1,285
    Trophy Points:
    169
    Location:
    Uranus
    If Detroit is paying so far above market value that the team won't match, it's an awful idea. If Detroit is paying market value, there's no reason for the player to sign.
     
  19. Frk It

    Frk It From Z to Z

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2010
    Messages:
    26,874
    Likes Received:
    2,944
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Pittsburgh, PA
    Ok, let’s take a step back.

    It’s not even worthwhile to offer sheet a guy if you’re going to offer close to what their team is offering.

    So we are going to have to offer at least a decent amount more. And I doubt a player would turn that down because “it’s Detroit” or whatever. Because it’s a win-win for them. I make more money with a new team, or my team matches and I get more money here.

    I think it’s very unlikely a player would refuse to sign an offer sheet, and I don’t know if we’ve seen it?
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
  20. Fire Ken Holland

    Fire Ken Holland into outer space

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2005
    Messages:
    14,542
    Likes Received:
    1,285
    Trophy Points:
    169
    Location:
    Uranus
    I think they would. For example, Mitch Marner. Marner likely would not sign in Detroit just to miss the playoffs on a mediocre team when he can get basically the same amount and stay in Toronto and contend for cups. He can probably get nearly as much without ever signing the offer sheet, he won't piss off the entire city, and his team will have a little more cap space to bring in players so they can win.

    A guy would have to be really greedy or a team really cheap for this to even be a sensible thing to do for an elite level player. And if it's not an elite level player, what's the point? Piss off the league, spend more than you should, give up your draft picks, and it's not even a difference maker? I'd pass.
     
  21. The Zetterberg Era

    The Zetterberg Era RIP Fugu

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2011
    Messages:
    33,616
    Likes Received:
    3,093
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Ft. Myers, FL
    I think your hardcore offer, is a two-year deal at just under the 4 first round compensations. It would be a savage to do that to Winnipeg, Werenski would still have some UFA years as we would be doing that to him on a RFA deal that wouldn't expire to UFA status.

    Werenski has had a tough time bouncing back from injury thus far. I think he will get back, but he has had a rough couple years, I wounder if Columbus would let him go on a big money offer. Columbus should be very aggressive this off-season on Duchene if he reaches market in my opinion. Rumors they will go after Quick to replace Bob which is intriguing.

    Certainly seeing one of them come home would change the entire outlook of the rebuild for me.
     
  22. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2018
    Messages:
    1,290
    Likes Received:
    755
    Trophy Points:
    84
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Financial Analyst
    I guess where you lost me in this whole part is when you decided to give a damn about what the other team thinks or feels about your behavior? We are here to win cups, not make friends.

    If the Wings are going to get someone the caliber of Trouba or Werenski under contract, we are going to be spending money. Let’s say the bar is $8 million for this discussion. You’re going to sink that money into a top pair defenseman regardless of how you come into one with the inflation of the cap and the demand for the position. Maybe we do have one in the organization, but I’m betting we don’t have anyone that aligns with Trouba or Werenski in our organization, meaning your options are Free Agency, Draft, or Trade. That leaves us in a position where we are already going to be using our draft selections to try to acquire a player capable of doing what a Werenski or Trouba have already proven to be able to do. And like I said, once we have that player, we’re going to pony up $8 million to keep them at one point or another. If you view the additional draft picks (2nd 3rd) as the guarantee that the 1st round pick pans out to be a first pair defenseman by the age of 22, it makes a lot more sense from an asset management perspective.

    With all the discussion about the RFAs this season, I would not be surprised to see an offer sheet situation arise somewhere. I think it would be foolish to not consider the opportunity of being the team that does it.
     
    TheMule93 likes this.
  23. SirloinUB

    SirloinUB Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2010
    Messages:
    2,657
    Likes Received:
    311
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    Canada
    Here is my revolutionary 3 step plan to turn the wings into a contender.

    1) Draft Jack Hughes
    2) Sign Panarin. Ideally 9.5 but I’d go higher to get it done,
    3) Zack Werenski thinks things are looking pretty damn good back home and signs an offer sheet/requests a trade to Detroit.

    Offersheets are fun to think about but the truth is that success requires a very specific situation. So yes, I’m interested but I’d stress caution in pursuit. A mistake with an offer sheet could devistate a struggling team.
     
  24. Winger98

    Winger98 Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2002
    Messages:
    18,993
    Likes Received:
    998
    Trophy Points:
    214
    Location:
    Cleveland
    I think Columbus is in a position where they have to match nearly any offersheet. They are almost certainly losing Panarin, Boborovsky is ditching them. They can't allow their talent that's under RFA control to be poached or they're not going to be an NHL franchise - and, looking at their roster, they don't look far from being a really good team. I'm with you on them grabbing Duchene. A top6 center would be big for them.
     
  25. Lovonov

    Lovonov Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2018
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    13
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Gender:
    Male
    I'd absolutely overpay for Juolevi, something like 3.8m to keep the 1st. Forces Vancouver to pay more than they want to. Even if we make it for a few years and not add too much term.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice
monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"