Appetite for 2019 RFA Offer Sheet

Discussion in 'Detroit Red Wings' started by Hen Kolland, Feb 7, 2019.

  1. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    A lot of this could hinge on how the draft plays out, but it's an interesting topic in the present. There are a lot of intriguing names set to become RFAs at the end of this season, including notably (courtesy of spotrac):

    Forwards: Patrik Laine; Mitch Marner; Sam Bennett; Kyle Connor; Matthew Tkachuk; Travis Konecny; Sebastian Aho, Mikko Rantanen

    Defensemen: Jacob Trouba; Will Butcher; Ryan Murray; Zach Werenski; Ivan Provorov; Haydn Fleury; Olli Juolevi

    Simply put: how much, if anything, are you willing to give up to poach talent from another organization? Yes, there is a stigma to it. Yes, there is compensatory draft picks that get moved (see below). Just curious if any player in particular moves the needle. I will piggyback off of that by saying, it will likely take an overpayment financially (the idea is make it temporary) in addition to the draft picks that are given up. I pulled the compensation ranges below; I apologize for the formatting, it didn't transfer well.
    • $1,339,575 or below None
    • Over $1,339,575 to $2,029,59 3rd
    • Over $2,029,59 to $4,059,322 2nd
    • Over $4,059,322 to $6,088,980 1st, 3rd
    • Over $6,088,980 to $8,118,641 1st, 2nd, 3rd
    • Over $8,118,641 to $10,148,302 (2) 1st, 2nd, 3rd
    • Over $10,148,302 (4) 1st
    It goes without saying some of these players will resign; some of the teams will match anything someone would be willing to offer; but this would be as good a time as any to make a splash with our big drafts happening recently and in the near future. Personally, the name I am most interested in would be Werenski. I've done some browsing around, and I have seen people talking about keeping his next contract/extension in the realm of what Seth Jones signed ($32.4mm/6 years, or AAV $5.4mm). I can't help but feel that he's worth a bit more than that at this stage, plus he has the opportunity to grow (like Jones) to make any contract he signs, within reason, seem like a bargain. I know we have a history of being afraid of overpaying players, but generally speaking that has related to veterans or players with limited track records (ie. Dekeyser). With contracts like Kronwall, Jensen and Vanek approaching their end, with players like Daley, Ericsson and Green falling into a category of players who could be traded this year or expiring next year, most of us know we are extremely cap flexible and it seems to make a load of sense to take a calculated risk on someone young and skilled, within our core age group.

    Feel free to discuss names you'd be interested in, refute my opinion to no end, or get into the finer details of the actual cost of getting something like this done. I'm open to any and all ideas.
     
  2. Hammettf2b

    Hammettf2b Wings

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    I would only want to sign someone out of the range that requires a 1st round pick. I think teams would match in that case. No point in giving up 1st round picks during the rebuild let alone multiple ones. I don't see a logical offer sheet here.
     
  3. ricky0034

    ricky0034 Registered User

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    I feel like an offer sheet would be a huge mistake in general,even if it did work the Wings are too many pieces away to be giving up first rounders

    that said I wouldn't be opposed to kicking some tires on things that would cost less than a 1st

    something like $4m for Kapanen maybe
     
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  4. Ishad

    Ishad Registered User

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    I don’t see Hughes + any offer sheeted player listed making this team a playoff team next year. So no to any player that would require a first or multiple firsts.
     
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  5. Hammettf2b

    Hammettf2b Wings

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    I wouldn't mind this tbh. Don't see the Leafs matching either
     
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  6. Eternal Sunshine

    Eternal Sunshine Sponsor

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    Leafs are likely hoping Kapanen comes in somewhere in the 2 million and change range on a short bridge deal of sorts

    If we pressed them with a $4M deal for him he might shake loose, depending on how desperate Dubas and leafs management is

    I don't know if he is ultimately a guy worth going into the murky waters of offersheeting division rivals for, but I think it is the most reasonable option

    Good point ricky
     
  7. tsweeney

    tsweeney Registered User

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    I'd look to see about 1,2,3 range for Trouba or Werenski.

    Think of it like trading Rasmussen, Gustav Lindstrom, and Zach Gallant for one of them. I don't know about you, but I'd do that in a second. And if we got a legitimate building block on defense, that first would start dipping into the teens instead of near the top 5.

    I know it's nice to have high draft picks, but if you can get a guy who was drafted 1st round a couple years ago who is still in his early 20s and you KNOW he's a viable NHL top pairing defenseman, I would be willing to make the deal as opposed to sitting and waiting to see what those picks turn into.

    I think Columbus pretty easily matches 8.1. Winnipeg maybe not for Trouba. And if we could deal a Green or Nyquist and get a first in 2020, I would probably even be willing to crack the next bracket. Nobody out there is good enough now (at a position of dire need) to go for 4 1sts. Like Marner is good enough for 4 1sts, but that doesn't make sense for Detroit.

    E: Also, a lot of how open I'd be is predicated on how successful they are with moving rentals, how Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen, McIssac, Berggren, Cholowski, and Hronek are developing.
     
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  8. Shaman464

    Shaman464 #FireHolland

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    Using an offersheet only makes sense in my mine under one circumstance: You're going after one last elite piece before anticipating years of contention. If you're one Matthews away from being a team that should challenge for a cup for 5 years, giving up 4 firsts makes sense. In every other circumstance it just doesn't make sense. If you're in the cellar those firsts are much more valuable because that team likely isn't one stud away from being a good team. If you're at the top, but fear decline without a drastic move it doesn't make sense because the gamble likely doesn't make sense.
     
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  9. Darkseider

    Darkseider Almost as good as a Marvel reference

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    Werenski is maybe the only one who'd actually sign the thing. But it's probably not worth it. It would be verrrrrry expensive.

    And when you're a team who needs to make deals going forward (like selling at the deadline or trading up at the draft), it's not worth it to blow up your relationship with another GM. Especially when you probably won't get the player anyway.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
  10. mantha39

    mantha39 Welcome home Captain

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    That is some insane young talent. I'd have a hard time being dissapointed if we tried to acquire any of them.
     
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  11. Lampedampe

    Lampedampe Registered User

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    Doing offersheets while you're a bottom team will very likely result in a similar situation Toronto had with the Phil Kessel trade. We're basically in a position where not one single guy will get us over the hump, so even contemplating it at this stage seems meaningless.

    But i mean sure, a couple of years down the line where the team might start to look like the real deal then it might be worth taking a risk and aquire a top guy through an offer-sheet.
     
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  12. tsweeney

    tsweeney Registered User

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    I mean, if you are a team like Detroit is right now where you are ostensibly planning on dealing rentals for picks, couldn't you aim for multiple firsts-thirds and then you sign the elite piece that you could land and then still get the shots in the draft? I mean, would you rather have Michael Rasmussen, Gustav Lindstrom, and Zach Gallant or Zach Werenski? What would you think of Svechnikov, Cholowski, Rasmussen, and Zadina in a trade for Auston Matthews?

    That actually seems like a gamble that could be worthwhile... especially since landing a piece of Matthews' caliber would tend to get you to drift away to the <5% chance at a top 3 pick. Again, you would have to be smart and do other things to supplement your draft stock and build your team outside of that, but with smart management, it's coming to the point that it isn't the scary gamble it used to be.
     
  13. Tatar Shots

    Tatar Shots Registered User

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    Kapanen is probably the most likely option to be snagged with an offersheet. Offer 4 million and you only give up a 2nd round pick. He would add a right shot and lots of speed to our lineup. I would offer Toronto our 2019 2nd come draft time and tell them we are going to offersheet him.

    Laine might be someone who is frustrated with his role on his team and the Jets might not want to pay him 10 million right now. Compensation would be 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. This is much less likely, but I would pull the trigger on this offersheet as well.

    Everyone else is playing big roles on teams that have plenty of cap space to sign them. Trouba won't risk Winnipeg matching and I wouldn't want to pay the 4 1st round picks that would be required as compensation for a guy likely on the move regardless.
     
  14. Shaman464

    Shaman464 #FireHolland

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    I would trade those players for Matthews, but would I trade (for argument sake) Hughes, a top 5 pick in 2020, a top 10 pick in 2021 and a top 15 pick in 2022 for Matthews? Probably not. As someone else pointed out, that only represents a slightly better version of the Kessel trade.

    What I would do is go all in for Dahlin if Detroit's forward core is set by the time he's an RFA. But, Matthews (or others named) on the Red Wings today makes Detroit a bubble team at best, and with less resources to build for the future.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
  15. datsyukfan

    datsyukfan Registered User

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    I like the idea of the Laine offer sheet as well as the Kapanen one. Kapanen is less assets to give up and if it’s just a 2nd for him it’s a no brainer. Laine at 10 is a little more of a risk but adding him to our lineup would be very nice for a larkin or potentially Hughes. Would also help the PP astronomically
     
  16. Shaman464

    Shaman464 #FireHolland

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    Unless the team is building a fortnite team, Laine would be a more talented AA. Not worth 10 million until he shows he can commit to the game.
     
  17. Ezekial

    Ezekial Registered User

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    In no reasonable scenario could it ever be Kapanen for a second. In order to get Kapanen, we would need to overpay so he would sign the sheet and Dubas will let him go for the compensation, that would be at minimum a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
     
  18. tsweeney

    tsweeney Registered User

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    I understand some of this, but even now, the opportunity for Hughes is 9.5% where the Wings stand. And if you land a guy like Auston Matthews, you're not getting a top 5 pick in 2020. You're also not likely to get a top ten pick in 2021. And damn, if you're not back seriously contending for the playoffs by 2022 in a scenario where you signed Auston Matthews to an offer sheet, there were big time mistakes made.

    I would very easily trade four 1sts for Auston Matthews or a similarly talented player. Particularly with what we think we might have in Veleno, Zadina, Berggren, McIssac, etc.

    I'd rather have a 100% chance of getting a generational player out of 4 1sts than whatever the odds of drafting one with your own picks over four years would be.

    Granted, this is for Auston Matthews and players at that level. I would not do it for any of the players in the list provided at a 4 1st level.
     
  19. TCNorthstars

    TCNorthstars Registered User

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    The good news is that we would still have our top 5 this year. If we offersheet anyone and lose any 1st round picks they would start at the 2020 draft.
     
  20. Shaman464

    Shaman464 #FireHolland

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    The only 2 players I would realistically pay that price for would be McDavid and Dahlin. Dahlin is the only one where its actually a possibility, and given Buffalo's cap situation when he comes off his ELC and the fact Detroit will have a couple more years to right the ship, I would be on team offersheet Dahlin. There is one else I would be willing to try for though.

    You have to ask yourself who plus our first this season makes this team a contender. There isn't anyone on that list, in my mind, makes Detroit a contender, especially at the expense of 2-3 very high first round picks and a ton of cap space.
     
  21. waltdetroit

    waltdetroit Registered User

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    I read an article (can't remember where or by who) who pointed out the following situation. This is just an example for a player in the AHL. Let's say it's at the end of the 2020 season & you thought Saarijarvi was someone you thought could be a great contributor to your team in a couple years. He's up for a new contract. You could offer him a one-way contract for $2 to 3 million. Then DRW would really have to make up their minds if they were real close to the cap.
     
  22. Hen Kolland

    Hen Kolland Registered User

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    I see this went about how I saw it in my head...a lot of people valuing first round picks to a very high level. I totally get it; we have finally put ourselves at the bottom of the barrel and have started a rebuild. I just think that being absolutely terrible for as long as possible to maximize how high your draft picks can climb is not a good strategy. Yes, their GM mismanaged the entire organization into the ground, but Edmonton at one point had Hall (#1OA), RNH (#1OA), McDavid (#1OA), Yakupov (#1OA), Draisaitl (#3OA), Nurse (#7OA) on the same team, and look where they are now.

    Now this isn't to say I'm advocating running in blind and throwing away picks for any random player at a huge overpayment, but there is a time to take calculated risks, and I believe we are approaching it. I can't believe I missed Kapanen on my list because he's my top choice, along with Connor, from the forward group; I would not sign off on giving up a first for another forward at this point.

    We have to consider what this team is currently, what the farm system is stocked with, and where the team will be this time next year; with and without a move like this. The team competes in most games; everything seems to be close. We have seen new levels this year from Veleno and McIsaac, and Berggren and Zadina haven't had great years, but the circumstances make sense between injury and transition to a men's league respectively. Hronek has looked good in limited showings, Cholowski has looked good for a majority of the season. Add Hughes or Kakko to Larkin, Mantha, Athanasiou, Bertuzzi, Rasmussen, Zadina, Veleno, Berggren, Hronek, Cholowski, McIsaac...do we need to be approaching things with a losing mindset?

    People would love to go throw a brick of cash at Karlsson's head, likely for 7 years and over $8mm per year as damn near a 30 year old, but going after a 22 year old with high upside is too short sighted because we aren't ready to compete? I don't know, in my head, if you win the lottery and get Hughes, you go after Werenski and he's in your core long term. You're a playoff team with a core with an eldest member being Athansiou at 24-25 years old.
     
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  23. Frk It

    Frk It From Z to Z

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    We need to draft better than that or the offer sheets aren’t gonna matter... so I’d stop using that as the baseline.

    Guess it feels a little self-defeating or like we should ideally have more faith in our drafting to me.

    I want to be drafting players we wouldn’t want to give up as opposed to would... know what I mean?
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2019
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  24. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

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    If we draft Hughes or Kakko im all in on going hard after Karlsson or offer sheeting Werenski, possibly Trouba. Theyre both Michigan guys theres a great chance theyd sign.

    We could even enlist Swedish mob boss Henrik Zetterberg to help bring Karlsson here, maybe get a good word from his best buddy Alfredsson too
     
  25. Sparty

    Sparty 2018-19 Red Wings HF Boards Fantasy Champ

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    We're not there yet IMO.

    I'm not convinced this would be a playoff team next year even with a first overall pick, a coveted free agent (Stone, Karlsson, Duchene, etc), Veleno, Zadina and an offer sheet RFA.

    I'd prefer they waited another year before they thought about offer sheets, although I prefer they just didn't do one at all. Not having first round picks for four years would make it hard to build for the future and this team would need to succeed immediately for it to be worthwhile. You already have Boston, Tampa and Toronto who will probably be playoff locks for a while in the Atlantic, and Buffalo who is trending ahead of us.

    Don't even know who the prospective 2020 RFAs would be anyways.
     
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