Poll has hillary winning..
I always love when people bring up this example, because it’s a great opportunity to explain how probability actually works.
Polling had Clinton winning the popular vote by several % points, which she actually did. That’s not actually the important bit though.
What polling said in regards to her chances to actually win was, that based on how the electoral college votes work, she had about a 90% chance of winning. So 9/10.
It’s a bit like having a ten sided die, and rolling it and getting a 10. Then claiming that dice don’t work because probability says it had a ‘slim’ chance of landing on that number. 10% in reality is not a slim number at all though.
For example let’s say I had ten boxes. 9 of the boxes had $10,000. 1 box contained a bomb that will kill you if you open it. There’s a good chance (if you’re not dim) that you’d refuse to pick a box. This is because as I alluded to, 10% is actually a pretty high probability outcome when you only get to perform the action once. Just like with the election.
Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.