Anyone else worried about Florida

[BertCorbeau]

Also worth noting that Florida and Columbus have one more head to head game against each other.

 

[BertCorbeau]

And Florida has 4 sets of back to backs, and play 17 games in 31 days to close the season. They only get two days off in a row once the rest of the way. The rest is every other night with back to backs thrown in. That is a lot of games in short order.

Should mean that Reimer gets some starts too.

 

[ANDI P IS CUTE]

another win, only 6 pts back now if they win their games in hand. Leafs sucking at a bad time too.

 

[Gary Nylund]

lol. this guy wasn't sure why I assumed Florida would beat Montreal.

This guy has no interest in why you would assume such a thing. It's the NHL, any team can beat any other team on any given night.

If the Leafs go 7-7... that's fine.

I'm more worried about us going 3-11

Well, you go right ahead and worry then I guess.

 

[Pookie]

That's why I dislike when fans talk like the rest of our games are just practice games. This is the NHL, if you let off the gas somebody might just catch you. Starting Saturday, the Leafs have to regain their momentum and start winning. Can not take these last 14 games easy. Other teams don't let up. Boston keeps on winning, TB keeps on winning, what is so special about our team that they should take it easy? What makes anyone think that taking it easy is the right approach?

Lots of urban legends in this post

The goal of the regular season is to get into the playoffs. Who cares if someone catches you? Home ice is nice but not at the expense of injury.

Speaking of which, a sub goal is to get in the postseason healthy.

And beyond that, momentum?

That’s a made up construct. Winning streaks end. Losing streaks end. Games are independent events. Your match up and adjustments during the 7 games determines your fate, not a winning streak leading up to it.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

We all know Montreal will play their best game of the season next Saturday and buffalo will play like contenders in their remaining games against us. While they let teams like Florida walk all over them. It isn’t fair

Meh, if this Leafs team hasn’t learned to get up for Buffalo then frankly they don’t deserve to win those games then. If they don’t understand by now that Buffalo is going to play their best against I don’t know what will wake them up for these games. It never matters how good or bad we are perceived to be relative to Buffalo, games against them will always be tough.

 

[Spirit of 67]

So the glass isn't half full. It's smashed on the floor with water everywhere?

 

[LeafGrief]

Some of you just can't help yourselves. 6th place team in the league worrying about the 20th place team in the league. lol

Yes, it's true, we could have another historic collapse. But we're as close to the Panthers as we are to the Bruins. You think they're worried about us? And give me a f***ing break with this "Leafs sucking at the wrong time" shit. It's like you've never seen two losses in a row before. Good grief does nobody remember the hand wringing of late October or December? Yet here we are, comfortably in third. Give your heads a shake, clutch your blankie, and take a deep breath. We're fine.

 

[Mugzy97]

So the glass isn't half full. It's smashed on the floor with water everywhere?

Thanks for summarising all post-game threads after a loss for the entire season in one statement.

 

[Gary Nylund]

So the glass isn't half full. It's smashed on the floor with water everywhere?

Apparently so. Water everywhere, and not a drop to drink.

 

[bax]

Florida for sure finishing ahead of us now.

For sure? This Leafs team hasn't lost more than 4 in a row all year. Suddenly now they can't go 7-7 to finish the season and they're going to go 3-11 and while they are doing that Florida is going to run the table? Florida is on an impressive run, similar to the run the Leafs just went on, but let's not pretend they're not going to lose a few games again.

 

[Rogie]

The Hockey Reference site here:

Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com

has our Probability of Making Playoffs at 100% - which is higher than both the Caps and Pens who are at 99.something.

On an aside, pretty cool that we have more points than both the Caps and Pens with same number of games.
We keep hearing it and seeing that we are 6th overall but when you put it like this - maybe just to me - it just sounds more impressive.

We have MORE POINTS THAN THE PENS or CAPS.

GO LEAFS!

 

[justafan22]

Assuming it's either Caps or Flyers as the metro winner, falling to the wild card spot wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to be honest. It's unlikely, but I'd prefer it to boston.

 

[Rogie]

Assuming it's either Caps or Flyers as the metro winner, falling to the wild card spot wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to be honest. It's unlikely, but I'd prefer it to boston.

Did you mean Pens maybe?

 

[BertCorbeau]

If this team falls to the wild card spot it will be very discouraging as it means they would be limping into the playoffs on a bad skid and likely would be bounced in the first round.

I expect them to pick it up again once Matthews is back but really they just need to be above average to stay the course. Like 8 wins in their last 14 gets them to 101 points - that's what I would at least hope for.

Florida can, at best, get to 107 points if they win all 17 of their games remaining. So I guess that means the Leafs magic number, at this point, is 12? A combination of Leaf wins and Florida losses? I'm bad at calculating those things

 

[egd27]

If the leafs go 7-7 to finish up (with 99 points) Florida will need 27 points in their last 17 games.

So they would need to go 13-3-1 to pass the leafs and finish at 100 points. And the play Boston 4 times. If they split with Boston they will have to almost run the table the rest of the year.

Can't see that happening.

You forgot to add that the Devil and Blue Jackets (9 & 10 points back with no games in hand) would also have to knock us out of the WC if the Panthers pulled off this miracle.

 

[Rogie]

You forgot to add that the Devil and Blue Jackets (9 & 10 points back with no games in hand) would also have to knock us out of the WC if the Panthers pulled off this miracle.

Good pick up!!!

Always reminds me of the studies (in the past) that showed by American Thanksgiving, it's hard to make or lose a playoff spot - as crazy as that sounds.

 

[Brown Dog]

Not sure how our odds can be 100% until we've mathematically clinched. That's crazy.

I admire those of you who are confident and wish I could get there. Too much Leafs PTSD for me though!

 

[Daisy Jane]

this is just so sad.

Here we are. with a good team, and management who has very deftly put the past behind him and all people here can do is go well "we did this, and we did that, and this and this" and Florida is gonna... and we're gonna be a wild card team because [reasons]...

honestly. let it go.

those aren't the same teams who did any of those things, and I can't believe some people here actually want the Leafs to do a tail spin either.

holy freaking moses

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not sure how our odds can be 100% until we've mathematically clinched. That's crazy.

I admire those of you who are confident and wish I could get there. Too much Leafs PTSD for me though!

Hahaha yeah, obviously a faulty formula there. When people read numbers like that they should always ask where do they come from, how are they calculated etc. Anyhow, 100% is obviously just wrong but the real odds are probably close enough to 100% that people shouldn't worry. I do understand people are traumatized though.

 

[Rogie]

Not sure how our odds can be 100% until we've mathematically clinched. That's crazy.

I admire those of you who are confident and wish I could get there. Too much Leafs PTSD for me though!

I agree TOTALLY. 100% seems impossible!

I think it is sooooo close to 100% it gets rounded up - is what I suspect.

Important point (from my post) is that it's higher than the Pens or Caps who were at 99.something percent.

So, even if it's NOT 100%, it's about as close as you can get STATISTICALLY AT LEAST!

 

[egd27]

Not sure how our odds can be 100% until we've mathematically clinched. That's crazy.

I admire those of you who are confident and wish I could get there. Too much Leafs PTSD for me though!

Hahaha yeah, obviously a faulty formula there. When people read numbers like that they should always ask where do they come from, how are they calculated etc. Anyhow, 100% is obviously just wrong but the real odds are probably close enough to 100% that people shouldn't worry. I do understand people are traumatized though.

I agree TOTALLY. 100% seems impossible!

I think it is sooooo close to 100% it gets rounded up - is what I suspect.

Important point (from my post) is that it's higher than the Pens or Caps who were at 99.something percent.

So, even if it's NOT 100%, it's about as close as you can get STATISTICALLY AT LEAST!

I believe it is calculated based on a number of simulations run...... I guess their program couldn't find a simulation where the Leafs missed.

But we should keep worrying cuz we're Leaf fans.

 

[harvestglen]

Not sure how our odds can be 100% until we've mathematically clinched. That's crazy.

Hahaha yeah, obviously a faulty formula there. When people read numbers like that they should always ask where do they come from, how are they calculated etc. Anyhow, 100% is obviously just wrong but the real odds are probably close enough to 100% that people shouldn't worry. I do understand people are traumatized though.

It's a rounded number of, at the moment, 99.96%. In other words, for every 10,000 times this scenario would happen, the team would make the playoffs in 9,996 of them. Worth noting that any outcome other than playoffs would be of epic historical proportion that dwarfs any of their past collapses over the last decade, and with a much better team to boot. When the formula sees no scenario where the team would miss, it will show as "In".

 

[ShaneFalco]

I worry about global warming

 

[Rogie]

It's a rounded number of, at the moment, 99.96%. In other words, for every 10,000 times this scenario would happen, the team would make the playoffs in 9,996 of them. Worth noting that any outcome other than playoffs would be of epic historical proportion that dwarfs any of their past collapses over the last decade, and with a much better team to boot. When the formula sees no scenario where the team would miss, it will show as "In".

BEAUUUUTIFUL!