Speculation: Anyone else think we'll better than we think?

[offdacrossbar]

I've been having this debate with @Go Away Staal in another thread. The truth is that I would not in any way be surprised to see this team in the bottom-5... nor would I be surprised to see them snag a Wild Card spot.

The point I've been making is that, when you compare this team to the last Rangers team to make the playoffs, it isn't a huge difference. Let me run down the roster. In one case, I purposely compared Stepan to Hayes and Hayes to a rookie C, because I'm more concerned with role than with individual players. There's one caveat about Smith in there, but in no way am I basing this on players having career years, or anything like that.

16-17 vs 18-19
Kreider = Kreider
Vesey = Vesey
Nash >= Spooner
Stepan >= Hayes
Zibanejad = Zibanejad
Hayes -- Chytil/Andersson (this is the biggest question mark in the comparison)
Zuccarello = Zuccarello
Grabner >= Namestnikov
Buchnevich = Miller (is that a stretch? I don't think so)
Fast = Fast
Lindberg = Holland/Fogarty/Fontaine/Whoever 4C
Glass = McLeod (worst case scenario)

McDonagh > Skjei (unequivocally)
Girardi < Shattenkirk
Staal = Staal
Smith = Smith (big caveat... this is dependent on Smith really being back)
Holden < Pionk/DeAngelo
Klein = McQuaid (we're talking about 16-17 Klein, who had all kinds of problems)

Lundqvist = Lundqvist

I'm sorry, I just don't see a HUGE difference in the lineups, with the exception of the 1D spot, which is admittedly a huge role. Some would debate that Nash and Grabner are both definitively better than Spooner and Namestnikov, but I think their overall impact on the offense is about the same. Yeah, those other guys scored more goals, but they did it without impacting the offense much when they weren't.

I also don't think many of the question-mark teams are so significantly ahead... NJD, FLA, CBJ, NYI, CAR, BUF... all of these teams have significant flaws... while we compare much more favorably to OTT, MTL, DET. That's 9 teams we could be better than... and that's a playoff spot right there.

lets not forget the role of the coach.

i love what quinn seems to be doing so far.

AV was down right awful.

i dont think we will be much better than a bubble team. would prefer full on tank for a top 2 pick.

 

[Edge]

I guess it depends on the expectation.

I think pre-TDL, the team will be in the 19-23 range. Post deadline, probably in the 24-27 range.

 

[Inferno]

I think we'll be bottom 7 to 9...better than most ppl think..but still crap.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think we'll be bottom 7 to 9...better than most ppl think..but still crap.

I think thats the most common thought.

I think the "best" case is this team finishing 9th-11th in the conference. I don't see how they make the playoffs unless a shit load of stuff goes right for them and something goes terribly wrong for someone we'd expect to make it.

Of course, it only takes 1 or 2 things to go wrong for us to turn this team into a bottom 5 lock IMO.

 

[Off Sides]

I'd go 9th to 3rd from bottom in points league wide at seasons end.

 

[IceNeophyte]

I think the Rangers will be square on the bubble, somewhere between #14 and #18 in the league.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Every year there are teams who come out of nowhere and surprise everybody. Especially under a new coach I think anything could happen, I wouldn't be too surprised if we make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs, and wouldn't be too surprised if we finish bottom 5. I predict we'll finish between 7-9th in the Conference

 

[CasusBelli]

Neither playoffs nor a bottom-five finish would surprise me. Hank’s age will become increasingly evident — not doubt. The questions are 1) whether Georgiev can step up, 2) how effective the new coach will be in the NHL with the current roster, and 3) how healthy we will be — in terms of injuries as well as overall conditioning (especially endurance amongst youngsters). At least two of the above three must occur for us to make the playoffs; failure to meet either the first or the second will result in a bottom-five finish.

Just my two cents.

 

[Inferno]

I think thats the most common thought.

I think the "best" case is this team finishing 9th-11th in the conference. I don't see how they make the playoffs unless a **** load of stuff goes right for them and something goes terribly wrong for someone we'd expect to make it.

Of course, it only takes 1 or 2 things to go wrong for us to turn this team into a bottom 5 lock IMO.

Id say we're 1 major injury (kreider) from being bottom 5, 2 from being bottom 3 (zibanejad) and 3 from being bottom. Of the barrel (Henrik)

 

[Tawnos]

I think thats the most common thought.

I think the "best" case is this team finishing 9th-11th in the conference. I don't see how they make the playoffs unless a **** load of stuff goes right for them and something goes terribly wrong for someone we'd expect to make it.

Of course, it only takes 1 or 2 things to go wrong for us to turn this team into a bottom 5 lock IMO.

I really don't get how you can think we might be as high as 9th in the conference, but "don't see" how they make the playoffs. 9th place is likely only a few points out of a playoff spot as it is. You're talking about a 1-3 win difference.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I really don't get how you can think we might be as high as 9th in the conference, but "don't see" how they make the playoffs. 9th place is likely only a few points out of a playoff spot as it is. You're talking about a 1-3 win difference.

I think there is a clear top 8.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Id say we're 1 major injury (kreider) from being bottom 5, 2 from being bottom 3 (zibanejad) and 3 from being bottom. Of the barrel (Henrik)

I'd probably add Shatty to that list though I think there are ways to mitigate that loss.

I wouldn't hesitate to throw Hayes in that Category either.

 

[bobbop]

Probably. I’m down with 20-25 range. There are 4-5 teams that are in worse shape than the Rangers. A playoff bubble team is unlikely unless everything falls into place.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Teams worse than us:

Ottawa
Detroit
Montreal

I see us being bottom-5 this season.

 

[Rangers ftw]

I’m very confident we won’t be bottom five like quite a few seems to think (hope) around here. If we were in a different division I wouldn’t be surprised if we made the PO.

 

[SA16]

More likely they make the playoffs than a top 3 pick.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

More likely they make the playoffs than a top 3 pick.

I don't think this is true.

Even if they finish where they did last year, that would equate to a 19% chance at a top 3 pick.

I'd say the playoffs are much lower than that.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Id say we're 1 major injury (kreider) from being bottom 5, 2 from being bottom 3 (zibanejad) and 3 from being bottom. Of the barrel (Henrik)

Which is what I believe. This team does not have the depth to withstand injuries.

 

[Tawnos]

Probably. I’m down with 20-25 range. There are 4-5 teams that are in worse shape than the Rangers. A playoff bubble team is unlikely unless everything falls into place.

Every playoff bubble team has to have everything fall into place to be a playoff bubble team.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

We're only bottom five if the injuries pile up.

I imagine our season will look a lot like it did last year from a standings perspective. In the hunt for most of the year, falling off at the end, outside shot at the playoffs. No shot at being a real contender

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Every playoff bubble team has to have everything fall into place to be a playoff bubble team.

Some teams have to have less fall in place than others.

See: Carolina. If they get league average goaltending, they’re on the bubble.

 

[Tawnos]

Some teams have to have less fall in place than others.

See: Carolina. If they get league average goaltending, they’re on the bubble.

Carolina's offense is somewhat suspect as well. And I'm sure if you broke it down by player, as many need to perform well on Carolina as do on the Rangers to say "everything fell into place."

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Carolina's offense is somewhat suspect as well.

It was, but had their goaltending not been so horrific they’re right on the bubble, which was my point.

Carolinas suspect offense was slightly worse than the Rangers offense last year. I think some are really overrating what our offense is capable of.

 

[Tawnos]

It was, but had their goaltending not been so horrific they’re right on the bubble, which was my point.

Carolinas suspect offense was slightly worse than the Rangers offense last year. I think some are really overrating what our offense is capable of.

The Rangers are essentially bringing back the same offense, though, and in this "everything falls into place" scenario, they'll have their top goal-scorer and their PPQB for an entire year.

I think something I've realized is my biggest "trigger" is when people have opinions that I feel are too strong or certain than can be justified. This is one of those. It's not so much that I think that they will be a playoff team. It's more that I don't think being so sure that they won't is justified. I also don't think anyone who is so sure they'll be a bottom-5 team is justified in the strength of that opinion either.

 

[bobbop]

Every playoff bubble team has to have everything fall into place to be a playoff bubble team.

I must have missed the HF glossary