Speculation: Anyone else think we'll better than we think?

[Ghost of jas]

I was saying closer to 20th than 31st, not really calling them a playoff contender.

Others are...and I’ve been saying bottom five all summer.

 

[Lays]

I think we’ll start off good, but the long grind through the season is going to be overwhelming for our youngsters.

We’re going to lose a lot. I just hope we go out swinging instead of folding like *****es.

Same here. I think we get off to a decent start, then truly start to regress around December/January. I expect us to pick 7-10

 

[Placid]

It depends on so many factors. If things click, if projections are accurate (or even underestimated), if our regulars have a good year, then sure, we could be much better than projected (near the bottom of the league).
On the other hand, if some of our prospects needs more seasoning, the "rookies" regressing, getting a couple of injuries to regulars, etc... we could end up looking quite bad. Impossible to say beforehand, all we can do is cross our fingers and hope for the best

Of course, the simple solution to everything is to put them in the sweat box and have them lose 21 pounds, that seems to work wonders

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I've been having this debate with @Go Away Staal in another thread. The truth is that I would not in any way be surprised to see this team in the bottom-5... nor would I be surprised to see them snag a Wild Card spot.

The point I've been making is that, when you compare this team to the last Rangers team to make the playoffs, it isn't a huge difference. Let me run down the roster. In one case, I purposely compared Stepan to Hayes and Hayes to a rookie C, because I'm more concerned with role than with individual players. There's one caveat about Smith in there, but in no way am I basing this on players having career years, or anything like that.

16-17 vs 18-19
Kreider = Kreider
Vesey = Vesey
Nash >= Spooner
Stepan >= Hayes
Zibanejad = Zibanejad
Hayes -- Chytil/Andersson (this is the biggest question mark in the comparison)
Zuccarello = Zuccarello
Grabner >= Namestnikov
Buchnevich = Miller (is that a stretch? I don't think so)
Fast = Fast
Lindberg = Holland/Fogarty/Fontaine/Whoever 4C
Glass = McLeod (worst case scenario)

McDonagh > Skjei (unequivocally)
Girardi < Shattenkirk
Staal = Staal
Smith = Smith (big caveat... this is dependent on Smith really being back)
Holden < Pionk/DeAngelo
Klein = McQuaid (we're talking about 16-17 Klein, who had all kinds of problems)

Lundqvist = Lundqvist

I'm sorry, I just don't see a HUGE difference in the lineups, with the exception of the 1D spot, which is admittedly a huge role. Some would debate that Nash and Grabner are both definitively better than Spooner and Namestnikov, but I think their overall impact on the offense is about the same. Yeah, those other guys scored more goals, but they did it without impacting the offense much when they weren't.

I also don't think many of the question-mark teams are so significantly ahead... NJD, FLA, CBJ, NYI, CAR, BUF... all of these teams have significant flaws... while we compare much more favorably to OTT, MTL, DET. That's 9 teams we could be better than... and that's a playoff spot right there.

Bolded the ones that I don't agree with. We're getting the older, declining versions of those guys. If Staal plays, it will help with the team being as bad as they can be.

Grabner and his 27 or 28 goals is going to be quite a task for Namesnikov to match.

You didn't have 2016-17 Buchnevich in there either, but I suppose that you could say that one of Namesnikov/Spooner would match or surpass that. You left Skjei out of the 2016-17 Defense too (He had a fantastic rookie season)

Holden had a 11 goal 34 point season that year. I wouldn't pencil either Pionk or DeAngelo in for that kind of year. They have the ability (DeAngelo does for sure.)


Florida is undoubtably better than we are, Ditto Columbus.

You can make cases for against the others, including MTL.

DET and Ottawa I will buy.

 

[Machinehead]

They might suck but they'll be a lot more fun to watch. I had a good time at the game last night.

 

[Tawnos]

Bolded the ones that I don't agree with. We're getting the older, declining versions of those guys. If Staal plays, it will help with the team being as bad as they can be.

Grabner and his 27 or 28 goals is going to be quite a task for Namesnikov to match.

You didn't have 2016-17 Buchnevich in there either, but I suppose that you could say that one of Namesnikov/Spooner would match or surpass that. You left Skjei out of the 2016-17 Defense too (He had a fantastic rookie season)

Holden had a 11 goal 34 point season that year. I wouldn't pencil either Pionk or DeAngelo in for that kind of year. They have the ability (DeAngelo does for sure.)


Florida is undoubtably better than we are, Ditto Columbus.

You can make cases for against the others, including MTL.

DET and Ottawa I will buy.

Buchnevich played half the season and less than half of the playoff games. I didn't include Matt Puempel or Brandon Pirri either.

The Skjei thing was admittedly an oversight. Klein didn't really play in the playoffs and I thought he did. So the comparisons are McDonagh > Skjei, Girardi<Shattenkirk, Staal = Staal, Smith = Smith, Holden = McQuaid, Skjei = DeAngelo/Pionk (I would be surprised if we didn't get a fantastic rookie season out of at least ONE of those two). Holden's success that year was largely circumstantial success, which usually could just have been replicated by several other members, if they had been the ones in those positions at those moments. Same with Skjei, really. It was obvious at the time. On balance, that shift does make the 16-17 D more obviously better than the current one on the strength of McDonagh alone.

I don't disagree that you can make cases for any of those teams.... that's my point. You can make cases for them being better or the Rangers being better. We just don't know. Florida still has to put it together for a whole year. I'm pulling for them to, but they haven't yet. Columbus is the very definition of bubble team.

 

[will1066]

I think Quinn can get this squad to overachieve.

 

[Alluckks]

I think the earliest we will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs is with 5 games to go

 

[Irishguy42]

I think the earliest we will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs is with 5 games to go

Nah. It'll be final game of the season. Shootout.

This time, without Jokinen.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

The Rangers will end up finishing at whatever spot least helps the future.

 

[Leonardo87]

It’s mostly a young team looking to prove themselves, with a veteran goalie knowing his time is almost up, anything is possible.

 

[aufheben]

Not really concerned where they finish.

 

[BroadwayStorm]

I for one hope we are much worse than expected. Although with some of the players we have I doubt we are less than mediocre. Which really hurts this team. We absolutely need to tank in the worst way for Jack Hughes. Once we get that pure offensive number 1 center to go with the kids we already have, then I will treat this team seriously. We could be multiple year stanley cup contenders with the number 1 pick. It will be more of the same purgatory if we don't tank this season. The only hope I have is our absolutely atrocious defense will lose us a lot of games.

 

[thethirdhockeyman91]

No, if anything I think Rangers finnish even worse than we expect. I think we could Finnish with less than 60 points.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Well, we can definitely make the play-offs if:

- Buchnevich becomes a 60 point player
- Kreider becomes a 60 point player
- Zibanejad becomes a 70 point player
- Chytil hits 40 points
- Andersson hits 40 points
- Zuccarello hits 70 points
- Hayes hits 70 points
- Skjei plays like a true #1 D
- Lundqvist plays like he did in 2011-12

 

[Blue Blooded]

I've said since the beginning of this summer that this team probably is closer to the 2010-11 Rangers than a cellar dwelling team. If the team gels well, like the 2010-11 team, squeaking into the playoffs is definitely within grasp and would probably do wonders for the player development of our young regulars. We have an incredibly deep forward group (esp. if both Lias and Chytil are ready to step in) and I like the potential in our defensive corps (especially if Hajek makes it and Staal sits, OK that is definitely not happening).

If the team doesn't come together, which is a definite possibility, a bottom-5 finish is where we're going. Lines and pairings don't come together, Pionk, ADA, Lias and Chytil are completely overmatched, Smith is actually bad, Shatty plays like his post-November self etc.

I think the former is what is going to happen, but I'm aware that the latter is about as likely.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

we'll miss the playoffs and end up with the 13th overall pick.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I've said since the beginning of this summer that this team probably is closer to the 2010-11 Rangers than a cellar dwelling team. If the team gels well, like the 2010-11 team, squeaking into the playoffs is definitely within grasp and would probably do wonders for the player development of our young regulars. We have an incredibly deep forward group (esp. if both Lias and Chytil are ready to step in) and I like the potential in our defensive corps (especially if Hajek makes it and Staal sits, OK that is definitely not happening).

If the team doesn't come together, which is a definite possibility, a bottom-5 finish is where we're going. Lines and pairings don't come together, Pionk, ADA, Lias and Chytil are completely overmatched, Smith is actually bad, Shatty plays like his post-November self etc.

I think the former is what is going to happen, but I'm aware that the latter is about as likely.

didn't Hank pitch like 10 shutouts that year? We don't have prime Hank anymore.

 

[SML2]

Never underestimate a team that people are underestimating...

I don't think the expectations are very high from outside the group. I do think the group believes in itself, and this is more important. I have to stay positive. I think we will be pleased with the effort, but the results are still a season or two away.

 

[Blue Blooded]

didn't Hank pitch like 10 shutouts that year? We don't have prime Hank anymore.

True, but we also underperformed in terms of W-L-OTL record vis-à-vis their goal differential (which was 7th in the league) and we underperformed in terms of goal differential vis-à-vis their expected goal differential on the account of their league-worst ability to convert scoring chances. The effect of goaltending (+0.67%) was more than counterbalanced by poor shooting (-.85%). Believe it or not, the Rangers were third in the league in expected goal differential that year, behind only SJ and TBL and that's not taking Hanks goaltending (2nd in the league after Thomas) into account.

However, I wasn't speaking as exact comparison in terms of results but more of a solid and cohesive team without superstar skaters (Gaborik wasn't one that year) and young and improving players gelling very well. And honestly, looking at the rosters skater for skater at the beginning of the respective seasons I don't think there is much between them. Though I admit I'm higher than most on some of our players.

 

[haohmaru]

No, I don't think we'll be a contender or even a playoff team. I think we'll be bottom 3rd in the league but closer to #20 than #31. Does anyone else get this feeling? We still have Hank who is past his prime but I think coupled with hopefully a more defensively aware system could keep the goals down enough where it's respectable. We also have some good NHLers like Zib, Zucc, Kreider, Hayes, Buch (this is also a projection), Skjei, Shatty, Smith (another projection). We have some good young players who are before their prime, but it's not like they're plugs like Chytil, Lias, ADA, and Pionk. Thoughts?

Everything has to go right:

Hank has to be Hank all year
Skjei has to take the next step
Smith has to be Smith of late '16 all year
Andersson has to stick
Chytil has to stick
Pionk or ADA have to become NHL players
Staal has to be as "less bad" as last year
Zibs has to stay injury free

Should be pretty easy. -_-

But, yeah, I don't think they'll be bottom 5 regardless.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

The issue with rebuilding in the current league point system is that it’s now sigmoidal , so it’s as hard or harder to be the last place team as it is to be the first place team. In other words, the inertia is toward the mean. In the older system, it was very clear standing wise and often mathematically [think early 90s senators/nordiques] that your team [i.e. whatever town you live in that has players from everywhere other than your town] was out of contention or a serious run by January.

Now your team can still suck, yet make it to the wild card or just by points be neck and neck for the last 2 spots up until the last day of the regular season [i.e. Oli Jokinen].

I’m still not saying that the Rangers should do full self-sabotage, but they really need to finish no greater than 23rd for the rebuild, and most likely do that for 2-3 years [this season inclusive].

I’m not sure that will happen this year let alone for 2-3 years, so...idk.

 

[NYR713]

I agree with OP. This team isn't terrible. No high end talent, but plenty of depth among 4 lines. My biggest reason for thinking they'll improve (again agreeing with OP at around 20th area) is the coaching. Even with half a team of guys that won't make the roster out there during these preseason games, I'm still happier seeing a different system. In the D zone I'm seeing more of a hybrid zone setup... guys watch an area but can latch on to a puck carrier, lots of communicating and support and then swarms on loose pucks. That's already a huge plus, not watching guys latch on and chase a single player all over the ice, pulling everyone out of position. And, everyone is still learning it so it will only get better as they play.

I've also noticed something that was one of my biggest complaints over the last couple of years. This team moves forward with the puck when they get it in the D zone. Don't get me wrong, all teams occasionally have to play it backwards a couple times per game to avoid heavy fore-check - swing it behind the net and then maybe back again to open some space. But under AV, this was almost every single time the team gained control of the puck.

Quick run down of the last few seasons:
Get hemmed in the D zone for a bit while chasing guys around and players being pulled out of position- get control of the puck at some point but can't break out because everyone is out of position from chasing people - immediately start moving backwards behind the net as if the fore-checkers were going to let you treat it like a PP and casually control the puck and get set up - Reality hits and the fore-check is all over them, because they went backwards - fore-checkers get puck, throw it to their buddy sitting point blank in front of the net - Goal. Every game.

So far in this preseason, I've seen a lot more forward movement. Stay in position, pressure puck, double team, swarm and then if they get control it's a legit breakout or stretch pass.

This is mainly why I believe this team will be slightly better than last year. Simplified system, harder to play against physically and a lot of guys with something to prove. Then you have the X factors in the young guys, specifically Chytil and Andersson. They may not start out hot from the gates, or even on the big club at first, but they'll be there at some point and should only improve over the season. I'm not really worried about either of them having that rookie-burnout in the 2nd half of the season because of how much hockey they played last season. I'm pretty sure Lias played the entire year from rookie camps and preseason to CHL then SHL season with WJC's added in to AHL to WC's after the season.

 

[cwede]

disclaimer - i have not read the 53 prior posts. its a work day, sorry if this repeats comments above ...

playoff line was 95 pts
19 teams had 90+
3 were in 80's ( 2 over .500)
9 had <80 pts

NYR could be a .500 (80+ pts) team or even maybe a playoff-bubble team,
IF we play well,
but there are numerous key open questions, including these
- will the D, and D-zone play be significantly better?
- will we have enough scoring?
- will Hank be more consistently good?
- lotta new faces on the PK

i won't like watching NYR lose, but i won't be impatient, the remodeling is a good idea,
i actually wish NYR had a couple fewer vets at both F and D (than it seems NYR will start with)

 

[eco's bones]

I've been having this debate with @Go Away Staal in another thread. The truth is that I would not in any way be surprised to see this team in the bottom-5... nor would I be surprised to see them snag a Wild Card spot.

The point I've been making is that, when you compare this team to the last Rangers team to make the playoffs, it isn't a huge difference. Let me run down the roster. In one case, I purposely compared Stepan to Hayes and Hayes to a rookie C, because I'm more concerned with role than with individual players. There's one caveat about Smith in there, but in no way am I basing this on players having career years, or anything like that.

16-17 vs 18-19
Kreider = Kreider
Vesey = Vesey
Nash >= Spooner
Stepan >= Hayes
Zibanejad = Zibanejad
Hayes -- Chytil/Andersson (this is the biggest question mark in the comparison)
Zuccarello = Zuccarello
Grabner >= Namestnikov
Buchnevich = Miller (is that a stretch? I don't think so)
Fast = Fast
Lindberg = Holland/Fogarty/Fontaine/Whoever 4C
Glass = McLeod (worst case scenario)

McDonagh > Skjei (unequivocally)
Girardi < Shattenkirk
Staal = Staal
Smith = Smith (big caveat... this is dependent on Smith really being back)
Holden < Pionk/DeAngelo
Klein = McQuaid (we're talking about 16-17 Klein, who had all kinds of problems)

Lundqvist = Lundqvist

I'm sorry, I just don't see a HUGE difference in the lineups, with the exception of the 1D spot, which is admittedly a huge role. Some would debate that Nash and Grabner are both definitively better than Spooner and Namestnikov, but I think their overall impact on the offense is about the same. Yeah, those other guys scored more goals, but they did it without impacting the offense much when they weren't.

I also don't think many of the question-mark teams are so significantly ahead... NJD, FLA, CBJ, NYI, CAR, BUF... all of these teams have significant flaws... while we compare much more favorably to OTT, MTL, DET. That's 9 teams we could be better than... and that's a playoff spot right there.

Mostly I agree but there are a few quibbles:

At this point in time I think Hayes is a better player than Stepan. To me he was doing a pretty good imitation of Sean Couturier last year. And his production numbers started climbing after the deadline when AV finally started giving him power play time.

Buchnevich can either be a better player than Miller or a worse player. IMO if he can take another step--he has the tools to become a legit NHL 1st line player but he's going to need to be grittier than he has in the past and go to the more combat areas around the net, walls and corners. I think there have been mostly positive signs so far in preseason with this so I'm kind of optimistic that he will but seeing him do that throughout the year is key.

I also think McQuaid could give us something that we haven't had in a long while--a presence in front of our own net and real physicality from the back end. He's not going to produce a lot as far as point production but if he can stay healthy and well enough defensively he should be a very good addition---and on the physical front Quinn has kind of made it plain that he doesn't like when his team does not respond to physical abuse. In that respect Adam becomes a real go to guy when other teams get out of line and I think it builds team's morale--and morale is something AV's hands off policy may have done a lot to deflate.