Player Discussion Anthony Duclair

[topshelf15]

Agreed. I would suggest Pager is a legit 2-3C but his worst skill is distribution which absolutely has affected Duc’ s goals this year.

Nobody can really pass to Duc so he is left generating scoring chances on his own. It makes him easy to cover etc. Hopefully we have stronger C options next year.

If we get lucky and draft a kid like Laf ,I would put him with one of the two ,and have one of the three play the off wing...But on the other hand snagging a big center like Byfield,and using the 2nd first on a RHD like Drysdale would be a much better fit

 

[JD1]

Nobody can really pass to Duc so he is left generating scoring chances on his own. It makes him easy to cover etc. Hopefully we have stronger C options next year.

Ive noticed this as well and it detracts from his game/numbers/salary demands.

He generates almost everything on his own with his speed

It makes me wonder if we had a 1c with typical 1c puck distribution skills, could the Duke adapt to that and put himself in a position to score? Makes me wonder if that was in part what Torts referred to

 

[Calvin123]

Ive noticed this as well and it detracts from his game/numbers/salary demands.

He generates almost everything on his own with his speed

It makes me wonder if we had a 1c with typical 1c puck distribution skills, could the Duke adapt to that and put himself in a position to score? Makes me wonder if that was in part what Torts referred to

I'm not sure having a good center really matters for Duc. As you mentioned, it's his speed & individual skill that makes him effective. Long term I think he might be most effective on the 3rd line. Let the first two lines (with offensive centers) play against other teams most effective players, then turn Duc, loose on the 3rd line, with Formenton and a defensive center (White) and watch them eat up other teams weaker lines and defensive pairings.

 

[DueDiligence]

Brady as a 20 goal scorer is way more valuable than Duc. That’s why Brady will be paid more. The debate is whether Duc gets paid less because Duc is streaky.

I know that's the case. My point was they are both 20 something goal scorers but BT is a far more reliable and consistent player than AD.

 

[JD1]

I was just out for a drive and caught the tail end of a discussion on 1200 about goal scoring and consistency. I assume it started with a discussion about the Duke. Chris Stevenson was saying a 40 goal man is likely to score those 40 goals in 32 or 33 games kind of thing. Which leaves roughly 50 games where they don't score. Lots of room in those 50 games for some cold streaks

They were also talking up Norris and the return on the Karlsson trade

 

[stempniaksen]

I was just out for a drive and caught the tail end of a discussion on 1200 about goal scoring and consistency. I assume it started with a discussion about the Duke. Chris Stevenson was saying a 40 goal man is likely to score those 40 goals in 32 or 33 games kind of thing. Which leaves roughly 50 games where they don't score. Lots of room in those 50 games for some cold streaks

They were also talking up Norris and the return on the Karlsson trade

Just for fun I did this with the top goalscorers this year.

David Pastrnak:
Total GP: 61
Total Goals: 43
Games WITH goal: 31
Games w/o goal: 30

Auston Matthews:
Total GP: 61
Total Goals: 43
Games WITH goals: 32
Games W/O goals: 29

Alexander Ovechkin:
Total GP: 58
Total Goals: 40
Games WITH goals: 25
Games W/O goals: 33

Leon Draisaitl:
Total GP: 60
Total Goals: 34
Games WITH goals: 26
Games W/O goals: 34

Sebastian Aho:
Total GP: 59
Total Goals: 34
Games WITH goals: 26
Games W/O goals: 33

Nathan Mackinnon:
Total GP: 59
Total Goals: 33
Games WITH goals: 29
Games W/O goals: 30

Jack Eichel:
Total GP: 59
Total Goals: 33
Games WITH goals: 25
Games W/O goals: 34

Artemi Panarin:
Total GP: 58
Total Goals: 30
Games WITH goals: 26
Games W/O goals: 32

Connor McDavid:
Total GP: 55
Total Goals: 30
Games WITH goals: 23
Games W/O goals: 32

Seems like CJ's theory is correct outside of the elite of the elite.

Sidenote, but Pasta and Matthews scoring in > 50% of their games (and Mackinnon coming real close) seems extremely impressive when you compare them to their peers.

 

[JD1]

Just for fun I did this with the top goalscorers this year.

David Pastrnak:
Total GP: 61
Total Goals: 43
Games WITH goal: 31
Games w/o goal: 30

Auston Matthews:
Total GP: 61
Total Goals: 43
Games WITH goals: 32
Games W/O goals: 29

Alexander Ovechkin:
Total GP: 58
Total Goals: 40
Games WITH goals: 25
Games W/O goals: 33

Leon Draisaitl:
Total GP: 60
Total Goals: 34
Games WITH goals: 26
Games W/O goals: 34

Sebastian Aho:
Total GP: 59
Total Goals: 34
Games WITH goals: 26
Games W/O goals: 33

Nathan Mackinnon:
Total GP: 59
Total Goals: 33
Games WITH goals: 29
Games W/O goals: 30

Jack Eichel:
Total GP: 59
Total Goals: 33
Games WITH goals: 25
Games W/O goals: 34

Artemi Panarin:
Total GP: 58
Total Goals: 30
Games WITH goals: 26
Games W/O goals: 32

Connor McDavid:
Total GP: 55
Total Goals: 30
Games WITH goals: 23
Games W/O goals: 32

Seems like CJ's theory is correct outside of the elite of the elite.

Sidenote, but Pasta and Matthews scoring in > 50% of their games (and Mackinnon coming real close) seems extremely impressive when you compare them to their peers.

Nice work!

Now take it down a notch. A 30 gial guy probably has 58 to 60 or so where doesn't score

A 20 goal guy has pushing 68 or so where he foes score

They were talking about MaxPac getting his standard 35 in Montreal and the faithful freaking out every time he went 5 games without one

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

Just for fun I did this with the top goalscorers this year.



Alexander Ovechkin:
Total GP: 58
Total Goals: 40
Games WITH goals: 25
Games W/O goals: 33

Sidenote:

It's crazy how Ovechkin is turning 35 this year and is still on pace for 57 goals!

 

[Stylizer1]

Nice work!

Now take it down a notch. A 30 gial guy probably has 58 to 60 or so where doesn't score

A 20 goal guy has pushing 68 or so where he foes score

They were talking about MaxPac getting his standard 35 in Montreal and the faithful freaking out every time he went 5 games without one

It's not the same using Star players in the argument. A ppg player will have many less cold streaks than a .5 ppg player. All of those players are threats to score every night. Streaky players are not.

 

[JD1]

It's not the same using Star players in the argument. A ppg player will have many less cold streaks than a .5 ppg player. All of those players are threats to score every night. Streaky players are not.

I don't know about that

A consistent 40 goal man is a star in the NHL and that data says they don't score in 50 or so games

 

[Stylizer1]

I don't know about that

A consistent 40 goal man is a star in the NHL and that data says they don't score in 50 or so games

But you have to factor in the assists he will get over those 50 games. If a player is on a 10 games scoreless drought but has 6 assists over that period of time he wouldn't be seen as a streaky player, just in a goal drought. That's the difference between a star player and a 20 goal scorer. Streaky players disappear on the ice for long stretches.

 

[Sweatred]

But you have to factor in the assists he will get over those 50 games. If a player is on a 10 games scoreless drought but has 6 assists over that period of time he wouldn't be seen as a streaky player, just in a goal drought. That's the difference between a star player and a 20 goal scorer. Streaky players disappear on the ice for long stretches.

Keep in mind we are debating the contract value (arb value) of 20 goals consistent scorers with 20 goal inconsistent scorers.

I think People’s first reaction would be a streaky player is less valuable but in reality they may approach an equal value.

 

[supsens]

But you have to factor in the assists he will get over those 50 games. If a player is on a 10 games scoreless drought but has 6 assists over that period of time he wouldn't be seen as a streaky player, just in a goal drought. That's the difference between a star player and a 20 goal scorer. Streaky players disappear on the ice for long stretches.

That and most those guys are not getting lit up every other night when they don’t score.

 

[JD1]

Keep in mind we are debating the contract value (arb value) of 20 goals consistent scorers with 20 goal inconsistent scorers.

I think People’s first reaction would be a streaky player is less valuable but in reality they may approach an equal value.

It's kind of an odd debate

There's no such thing as scoring consistently and adding them up at years end and it adding to 20

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Keep in mind we are debating the contract value (arb value) of 20 goals consistent scorers with 20 goal inconsistent scorers.

I think People’s first reaction would be a streaky player is less valuable but in reality they may approach an equal value.

It's mostly a case where, you put one guy on the ice int he last minutes of a game, and you're confident something good will happen. The consistent player will likely generate something. Whether it turns into points on the board is another matter. The inconsistent player generally has a hot streak where everything is going right for a while, then has exceptionally long stretches where they don't impact the game at all. The consistent player is the one that brings more than just goal scoring to the table.

 

[Micklebot]

It's mostly a case where, you put one guy on the ice int he last minutes of a game, and you're confident something good will happen. The consistent player will likely generate something. Whether it turns into points on the board is another matter. The inconsistent player generally has a hot streak where everything is going right for a while, then has exceptionally long stretches where they don't impact the game at all. The consistent player is the one that brings more than just goal scoring to the table.

Disagree. As an example, Pageau in the playoffs has been a streaky scorer but has always brought something to the table beyond scoring.

 

[Cosmix]

I'm not sure having a good center really matters for Duc. As you mentioned, it's his speed & individual skill that makes him effective. Long term I think he might be most effective on the 3rd line. Let the first two lines (with offensive centers) play against other teams most effective players, then turn Duc, loose on the 3rd line, with Formenton and a defensive center (White) and watch them eat up other teams weaker lines and defensive pairings.

Perhaps Duclair might be better on the third line, but I do not see White being the Center for Duclair. The team needs better Centers on the first and second lines as the current Center’s are offensively challenged.

 

[Tuna99]

It’s crazy how NHL careers unfold. If you just reversed Duclairs production from the first 30 games of the season to games 30-60 he’d basically be on waivers come the trade deadline as he was in Columbus last year.

If you picked him up on waivers and he got hot like he did in his first 30 games you’d be GM of the year and considered a genius. Duke would get a nice extension and slump and the GM would go from genius to donkey.

 

[SensontheRush]

So what's the consensus now on Duclair next contract?

Honestly, I feel like his current production should be expected, just at a more consistent rate. ie still a 20-20 point getter, just less volatile

He might peak in a season with 30 goals.

Would a 5 year contract valued at $4M be crazy? Does Duclair want the stability? I feel like the Sens would push for $3.5M, and that could be a realistic possibility.

 

[TheDebater]

This angle does not quite do the goal justice, but I absolutely loved this shot last night against the Islanders.

Sign this guy long term, he is awesome.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Scored through JGP to boot!

 

[michaelscott]

I just saw this on the Sens instagram and thought I'd share. Could this be a hint at a signing announcement tomorrow, or do you think this is just going to be a promotional video involving duke?

 

[Crosside]

I just saw this on the Sens instagram and thought I'd share. Could this be a hint at a signing announcement tomorrow, or do you think this is just going to be a promotional video involving duke?

Would be awesome but I guess he s one that have the covid and said now he is ok

 

[JoePreacher]

I like Duclair and think his cold streak will allow the Sens to re-sign him at a much lower term that more accurately reflects his value. In the long run, I think this will work out well for the team.

 

[Larionov]

I would sign Duke for two years - next year, plus buy up his first year of free agency. It won't cost that much, and you keep him hungry. At the end of that time, you can see if or where he fits in as the young guys start to develop and emerge. If he has a so-so season next year, you can expose him in the expansion draft because he'll still have a year to go...