Player Discussion Anthony Duclair

[Sweatred]

That was a visionary contract that will be lauded as a steal by year 3. Brilliance.

That was a visionary contract that will be lauded as a steal by year 3. Brilliance.

In 3 years we are paying White $4.75. We will have overpaid in the first few years ($1-3/year) so really we are at about $6.75/year. To be a steal (or a good deal) he must be putting up $7-9 million type season. My guess is those numbers will look a lot like Duclairs. About $25 G and some decent PK work. So what is Duc worth ? $2 million or $7?

Either way his arb case is a nightmare for everyone involved.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

What Evidence Can Be Presented

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases includes:

• The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons
• Injuries, illnesses, and the number of games played
• The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL
• The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure
• The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal"
• The performance and salary of any player believed to be comparable to the player in the dispute

Evidence that is not admissible includes:

• The salary and performance of a comparable player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent
• Testimonials, videos, and media reports
• The financial state of the team (lol)
• The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll

Your Guide to Understanding NHL Salary Arbitration

The general point I am making is I wonder if the Senators treat Duclair as a UFA with the trade deadline approaching. As in, approach him with an extension, or deal him for a pick. This would only happen if they aren't okay with having to pay him a high 1 year settlement if they get a bad ruling.

Extending him now would make it so they don't have to worry about a bad arbitration ruling, and wouldn't have to risk losing him for nothing if they are afraid to qualify him or if he is awarded something high enough that they choose to walk away.

He has a good chance of finishing the season as the leading goal scorer, point scorer, and one of the top 2-3 in time on ice. This is even accounting for his recent slump. If the team deals some forwards like Pageau or Tierney, there is a chance that whoever is left around are going to get even more inflated minutes with DJ Smith shortening the bench, so that will further inflate Duclair's role with the team. He'll also have 350+ career games and a previous 20 goal season. He should have a decent case to get RFA top 6 money in arbitration.

If they like Duclair and see him as a legitimate star forward, this is a non-issue. There is nothing he can get in arbitration that will realistically be a problem if that is the case. But there is a realistic chance that they might not be sold on him, and they might have a tight budget. If that's the case, arbitration can pose a challenge. Arbitration is volatile. It can go both ways, but the Senators would need to prepare for a worst case scenario and decide if Duclair gets 4 or 5 million, would they be okay with that and would it fit their budget next season.

 

[Sweatred]

What Evidence Can Be Presented

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases includes:

• The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons
• Injuries, illnesses, and the number of games played
• The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL
• The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure
• The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal"
• The performance and salary of any player believed to be comparable to the player in the dispute

Evidence that is not admissible includes:

• The salary and performance of a comparable player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent
• Testimonials, videos, and media reports
• The financial state of the team (lol)
• The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll

Your Guide to Understanding NHL Salary Arbitration

The general point I am making is I wonder if the Senators treat Duclair as a UFA with the trade deadline approaching. As in, approach him with an extension, or deal him for a pick. This would only happen if they aren't okay with having to pay him a high 1 year settlement if they get a bad ruling.

Extending him now would make it so they don't have to worry about a bad arbitration ruling, and wouldn't have to risk losing him for nothing if they are afraid to qualify him or if he is awarded something high enough that they choose to walk away.

He has a good chance of finishing the season as the leading goal scorer, point scorer, and one of the top 2-3 in time on ice. This is even accounting for his recent slump. If the team deals some forwards like Pageau or Tierney, there is a chance that whoever is left around are going to get even more inflated minutes with DJ Smith shortening the bench, so that will further inflate Duclair's role with the team. He'll also have 350+ career games and a previous 20 goal season. He should have a decent case to get RFA top 6 money in arbitration.

If they like Duclair and see him as a legitimate star forward, this is a non-issue. There is nothing he can get in arbitration that will realistically be a problem if that is the case. But there is a realistic chance that they might not be sold on him, and they might have a tight budget. If that's the case, arbitration can pose a challenge. Arbitration is volatile. It can go both ways, but the Senators would need to prepare for a worst case scenario and decide if Duclair gets 4 or 5 million, would they be okay with that and would it fit their budget next season.

neat info - Duc’s camp can use the White contract which the Sens signed as a comp and the CT and Arti contracts as comps.

It will be hard for the Sens to argue White was worth $4.75 after his 2019 season but Duc is worth half that. White is a bit younger but Duc has more goals, ice time, team value, etc etc.

I think an arb ruling could be $3.0-$5.9. A lot will determine how the year ends - he could fizzle away or get 5-10G.

 

[Stylizer1]

All Star isn’t as much of a big deal anymore. Every team gets one no matter how bad you are. Realistically we didn’t deserve to have a single player at those games, despite having to players catch fire for a month each.

I don’t think anyone would label Duclair ‘an all star’. That’s not to knock the guy, it just isn’t going to move the needle at the negotiation table.

In negotiations everything is valuable. We know he is not an all star but you only have to have a few good seasons with decent numbers to be paid like a superstar a la Jeff Skinner.

 

[Stylizer1]

neat info - Duc’s camp can use the White contract which the Sens signed as a comp and the CT and Arti contracts as comps.

It will be hard for the Sens to argue White was worth $4.75 after his 2019 season but Duc is worth half that. White is a bit younger but Duc has more goals, ice time, team value, etc etc.

I think an arb ruling could be $3.0-$5.9. A lot will determine how the year ends - he could fizzle away or get 5-10G.

This is why I think a 2 year contract with him getting a raise protects the Sens from possible over payment. If he has 2 good seasons and there is a competition for his services he will go to the highest bidder but will most likely flame out as quick as he signs the deal. He doesn't strike me as a player you lock up long term. He is going to play his ass off for that UFA contract, that's when we sell high for the future.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

I think he takes a pass - even today Duclair is 33rd in the league in goals a head of Stone, Kane etc.

Duclair has 3 goals in his last 20 games, those goals came all in the same game. His hot start I believe has clouded people’s judgment. He should take that a run

 

[Ice-Tray]

He was flying again tonight, definitely snakebitten, but he’s gotta keep those legs moving

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

He was flying again tonight, definitely snakebitten, but he’s gotta keep those legs moving

Ya he’s getting chances. You can see he’s still a good player that’s just on a cold streak. Unfortunately for Duclair this cold streak came at a bad time and he won’t get nearly as big of a contract as it was looking a few months ago.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Ya he’s getting chances. You can see he’s still a good player that’s just on a cold streak. Unfortunately for Duclair this cold streak came at a bad time and he won’t get nearly as big of a contract as it was looking a few months ago.

The good news is that he’ll probably be offered what is actually fair now that his cold streak has sort of matched his hot streak. No problems paying the man to be a speedy 20 goal man.

 

[BatherSeason]

You wanna get Duclair scoring again, put him back with Pageau/BT, its not like Connor Brown is tearing up the league, he can still be gritty and the coach can still love him if he is on the second line as opposed to the first.

 

[jhutter]

In an organization overflowing with third line talents, having a guy who is a legitimate second liner is important. I hope he gets signed for 3 x 4.5.

 

[Sweatred]

Duclair has 3 goals in his last 20 games, those goals came all in the same game. His hot start I believe has clouded people’s judgment. He should take that a run

I can’t find any proof that a streaky player (goal scorer) is less valuable than a consistent player with respect to WAR or any type of winning metric.

 

[Sweatred]

You wanna get Duclair scoring again, put him back with Pageau/BT, its not like Connor Brown is tearing up the league, he can still be gritty and the coach can still love him if he is on the second line as opposed to the first.

 

[supsens]

I can’t find any proof that a streaky player (goal scorer) is less valuable than a consistent player with respect to WAR or any type of winning metric.

What’s the value on 2 assists and a -8 in his last 15 games? Streaky goal scorer is one thing but this is getting out of hand

 

[Sweatred]

What’s the value on 2 assists and a -8 in his last 15 games? Streaky goal scorer is one thing but this is getting out of hand

What I mean is ... I’m not sure a 20 goal streaky scorer is any better or worse than a 20 goal consistent scorer.

 

[supsens]

What I mean is ... I’m not sure a 20 goal streaky scorer is any better or worse than a 20 goal consistent scorer.

Well that depends on assists and not getting lit up every game. If he doesn’t turn it around soon they will probably walk away from arbitration and he will once again be left to go free at the end of the season.

 

[Very Stable Genius]

Wow, he hasn't scored since December 21st. Didn't know he had fallen off the cliff (I haven't watched a game in a long time)

 

[Sweatred]

Well that depends on assists and not getting lit up every game. If he doesn’t turn it around soon they will probably walk away from arbitration and he will once again be left to go free at the end of the season.

I doubt they walk away from a high number/single year.

And no... it has nothing to do with assists.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Wow, he hasn't scored since December 21st. Didn't know he had fallen off the cliff (I haven't watched a game in a long time)

TBH he's been playing quite well still, he just has had terrible luck and his line mates been flubbing most passes to him for easy goals.

 

[Micklebot]

I can’t find any proof that a streaky player (goal scorer) is less valuable than a consistent player with respect to WAR or any type of winning metric.

Those metrics aren't designed to explore that, but the good news is somebody made metrics that do explore the impact of streakiness.

BLUF:
Is streakiness real?
● Yes, in the sense that there are certainly sequences in recent NHL history that appear “streaky.”
● Which could be due to chance, but also due to external factors (ex. CBJ injury issues in 2014-15).
● This is a pretty simple statement but it does matter!
● A frequent claim related to hot hands is that we are spotting patterns where there are none.
Is streakiness repeatable?
● No.
Does streakiness matter?
● No.

https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/1-2-namita.pdf

 

[Sweatred]

Those metrics aren't designed to explore that, but the good news is somebody made metrics that do explore the impact of streakiness.

BLUF:
Is streakiness real?
● Yes, in the sense that there are certainly sequences in recent NHL history that appear “streaky.”
● Which could be due to chance, but also due to external factors (ex. CBJ injury issues in 2014-15).
● This is a pretty simple statement but it does matter!
● A frequent claim related to hot hands is that we are spotting patterns where there are none.
Is streakiness repeatable?
● No.
Does streakiness matter?
● No.

https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/1-2-namita.pdf

That appears to confirm that the season Duclair is having (streaky 20G+) is not worse or less valuable than a typical consistent season?

 

[Micklebot]

That appears to confirm that the season Duclair is having (streaky 20G+) is not worse or less valuable than a typical consistent season?

From what I understood (and I haven't had a chance to closely watch the youtube clip and only glanced over the slide deck, this was referenced in a another piece I had read and seemed relevant so I linked it) statistically, his streakiness is not predictive of future success or lack there of so one batch of streaky clumped up 20 goals might have more of an impact on the out come than the next batch of streaky goals.

Anecdotally, I've always felt streaky players were better for weaker teams, while consistent players where better for stronger teams; a weak team can win games they shouldn't with a streaky player going on a tear, but probably doesn't lose many more games than they should because of a cold streak (particularly true with goalies). On the flip side, a strong team that is consistent doesn't need a game breaking hot streak to pile up the wins, so always getting what you expect is probably more valuable (again, particularly true with goalies, imo). The underdog/Cinderella stories of past are littered with players getting hot at the right time.

 

[Sweatred]

From what I understood (and I haven't had a chance to closely watch the youtube clip and only glanced over the slide deck, this was referenced in a another piece I had read and seemed relevant so I linked it) statistically, his streakiness is not predictive of future success or lack there of so one batch of streaky clumped up 20 goals might have more of an impact on the out come than the next batch of streaky goals.

Anecdotally, I've always felt streaky players were better for weaker teams, while consistent players where better for stronger teams; a weak team can win games they shouldn't with a streaky player going on a tear, but probably doesn't lose many more games than they should because of a cold streak (particularly true with goalies). On the flip side, a strong team that is consistent doesn't need a game breaking hot streak to pile up the wins, so always getting what you expect is probably more valuable (again, particularly true with goalies, imo). The underdog/Cinderella stories of past are littered with players getting hot at the right time.

I think Duc gets an arb deal close to what the league views a 25G/40pt type player. The streaky factor will cost him by limiting his totals from becoming a 35G+ type player he would have ended up as if he could have maintained his streak. It will help him to get 4-5 more goals down the stretch to validate his position. If he doesn't he will have nearly a half season of no goals which will probably creap some doubt into his ruling. He can argue that the Sens stripped play makers from him etc.

 

[Beville]

Wow, he hasn't scored since December 21st. Didn't know he had fallen off the cliff (I haven't watched a game in a long time)

I’ve literally just looked at stats on NHL.com, seeing Duclair having an assist and thinking yeah he must be doing alright but yeah, you’re right, that’s 21 or so games where he’s not scored.
But it’s okay, ALL STAR BABY.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

He's had 2-3 breakaways/partial breakaways in the last game alone. 5 shots on goal the game before that, the guy is generating chances he's been nuts snake bitten. Ridiculously, not like he's been completely ghost or even half noticeable. This bodes well for a cheaper contract though!!!