Speculation: Anthony Cirelli offer sheet

[DistantThunderRep]

Depending on where the offer sheet was coming from would greatly impact this even being signed. Tampa still has a huge advantage with state taxes which is why I doubt you can offer sheet a Tampa RFA unless you are from another low income tax state. For example, since you are from Ontario... the difference on a 7 mil contract is almost a million dollars a year difference. The difference on say a 4.226 million contract is 527k a year. I can't see Tampa not matching something, especially if the cap rises. My guess is if push comes to shove they'd rather deal a Killorn or Johnson or Gourde and roll with cheaper contracts than their ufas like Shattenkirk etc.

Ah this took long enough to pop up. That and the fact you're factually wrong in your numbers, have a poor understanding on the way it works, I would say youre a typical HF poster.

 

[RedWingzz]

He’s definitely not better than Paquette. Stephens is debatable but he’s a rookie with the potential to improve, several more years of control, and costs about $1M less. Glendening doesn’t kick either of them off the roster.

You're entitled to your opinion and I am entitled to mine. Of course we are both slightly biased because of the teams we cheer for, but to me Glendening is a better player than Paquette.

 

[backburner]

my max price for this dude is 4,227,437

 

[The Macho King]

Didn't say he would sign it but a team with deep pockets would offer up the majority of it in SB like MON did with Aho, who got a $11.3 million dollar SB this year and rocking a 700-750k NHL salary all 5 years. $9.87 million next year, $6.95 million and the final two years at $5.25 million

The first 3 years pay Cirelli a $6.25 million signing bonus and minimum NHL salary the whole 5 years.
5 years takes him to 27 years old, straight to free agency.

Maybe with the cap going up, the compensation will too so I forgot to take that into account as well but definitely misjudged my numbers a bit

Check how our big players contracts are structured - up front money is not an issue.

Everyone in this thread except the Lightning fans have absolutely no idea how good Anthony Cirelli is. He is EASILY worth 7 million and would be a very smart offer sheet target. Kid is the new Sean Couturier.

I also don't disagree with this. The kid has brains, speed, and a motor that doesn't quit. You don't put a ceiling on players like that - you just see how far they rise on their own.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Wasn't saying your owner isn't rich enough but he is in the bottom tier of net worth for owners, just for the record.
He can make the same amount if he comes to FLA, wouldn't have to leave the tax bracket or weather either, some GM's may try it if he keeps up this pace.
He's as good as gone, you two are sweating it already
Great player though, don't see how TB doesn't move other older plays to keep both Point, Serg and Cirelli etc around long-term.

I have no doubt some GMs will think about it or even try it. I preempted your other comment (about weather and taxes) specifically with Florida in mind. The main advantage of Tampa over Sunrise is that he's got a good chance of making the playoffs most years in Tampa. Maybe he's the guy that pushes Florida into that territory if he were to sign an OS, though. :shrug:

Anyway, I considered a top-10 pick for him around here somewhere (I think it was Buffalo's) maybe a month ago, so I can't say I'm exactly terrified about losing him.

 

[The Macho King]

I have no doubt some GMs will think about it or even try it. I preempted your other comment (about weather and taxes) specifically with Florida in mind. The main advantage of Tampa over Sunrise is that he's got a good chance of making the playoffs most years in Tampa. Maybe he's the guy that pushes Florida into that territory if he were to sign an OS, though. :shrug:

Anyway, I considered a top-10 pick for him around here somewhere (I think it was Buffalo's) maybe a month ago, so I can't say I'm exactly terrified about losing him.

I wouldn't consider any pick other than top 2 for him. The chances an 8th overall (for instance) becomes the player Cirelli is is not high.

If he wasn't a third round pick, you'd only hear about his potential to get even better. The fact that he was has people sleeping on him.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Just with all scenarios this does not include other players that are going to need contracts that year Cernak, Cerilli again Stephens and Verhaghe most likely all in that year alone. now assuming that the cap increases the pitiful 2 mil over the next three that just 6 moving Palat and Killer frees up 10 so you have 16 mil for Cernak who replaces McDonagh in the top4 your 2C Cirelli along with the two guys your going to replace Killer and Palat with your still going to be 5 mil short at a minimum. And this assumes Cernak and Cirelli get 7 mil each after these bridges There is a cap reckoning coming. Like it or not I would just prefer to invest in the remainder of the team to continue to be competitive for a cup rather than hold on to a guy that in two years will be short sighted.

Your numbers are way off. Unless Cernak becomes a 1D he's not getting 7M a year, max for him if he hits his potential is 5M. Cirelli I can't see getting 7M either, maybe 6M but with how good he is he isn't a 70 point player. Stephens and Verheaghe will get minor raises, neither will be too high. We have internal options to replace Killorn, Palat, Johnson and Gourde who will be cheap options for a few years. What we don't have is someone to replace Point or Cirelli right now so losing either will hurt much more.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

I wouldn't consider any pick other than top 2 for him. The chances an 8th overall (for instance) becomes the player Cirelli is is not high.

If he wasn't a third round pick, you'd only hear about his potential to get even better. The fact that he was has people sleeping on him.

I think you're probably right in the grand scheme of things, but I'd be curious how strong the draft is for that pick. If you had the 8th OA in 2015, you had a chance at Werenski, Rantanen, Chabot, Aho, et al. Even if you reorder that draft with hindsight you'd get a star, but that's maybe the best possible example for the argument for taking a top-10 for Cirelli.

 

[AndreRoy]

NHL leaders in WAR over the last three seasons:

We are definitely not trading Point. Our absolute worst case scenario is possibly losing Serg or Cirelli this summer, but once we get past this summer our cap troubles will decline dramatically so any talk of trading our elite 1C is simply nonsensical.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Cirelli will accept either a surprisingly low offer that stirs up the tax debate again or someone on the Bolts will go to Robidas Island with some career ending but not retiring condition and stir up that loophole debate.

there won’t be an offer sheet

 

[greasysnapper]

Ah this took long enough to pop up. That and the fact you're factually wrong in your numbers, have a poor understanding on the way it works, I would say youre a typical HF poster.

My numbers are correct there bud assuming simplistic calculations and using a tax calculator. There are assumptions but it's a great resource for establishing a base idea. Too bad you have a stick in your butt.

Income Tax Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I think I'm a typical HF poster, and you're a typical buzzfeed poster.

 

[DarthProbert]

ZERO chance we move Point. Are you insane? LMAO at the thought of us keeping Killorn and trading Point.

Yeah, that's ****ing dumb. Trade Point to keep Killorn and Johnson.... lol

Do people really laugh their asses off and laugh out loud this much in real life when talking hockey, or is this just the experts' way of telling us they're so much smarter than the rest of us that they're laughing at our puny minds?

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Do people really laugh their asses off and laugh out loud this much in real life when talking hockey, or is this just the experts' way of telling us they're so much smarter than the rest of us that they're laughing at our puny minds?

Did you just find out about the internet in 2015?

 

[Drew311]

They will trade Johnson before they let their young 2C go.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Is Cirelli the real deal or a flash in the pan like Yanni Gourde.

 

[Byrddog]

Your numbers are way off. Unless Cernak becomes a 1D he's not getting 7M a year, max for him if he hits his potential is 5M. Cirelli I can't see getting 7M either, maybe 6M but with how good he is he isn't a 70 point player. Stephens and Verheaghe will get minor raises, neither will be too high. We have internal options to replace Killorn, Palat, Johnson and Gourde who will be cheap options for a few years. What we don't have is someone to replace Point or Cirelli right now so losing either will hurt much more.

You are only considering this bridge contract. Im talking about the next contract after when Cirelli is the 2C and Cernak is playing in the top 4 due to McDonough slipping down with age. Both will bridge at around 4 mil but in two years they are due another raise at the same time Point is the cap will not be there unless you put 8 roster guys that are ELC's or scud 1 mil players. You can not pay Point, Kuch, Stammer, Vasi, Hedman and McD. And afford Cirelli, and others some big dollar guys gotta go and im not talking Killer type contracts. A big 8 to 10 mil guy has got to go or your going to fill the bottom 9 with Paquettes a good heart guy but not enough depth to carry the team.

 

[Byrddog]

How do you move Palat? He has a full no-trade clause until 2021/22. Do you think he'll waive it? Seems unlikely. They could trade Killorn and get some cap relief there. But if Cirelli signed a $6M offer sheet, the Bolts would have a hard time matching and still re-sign Sergachev.

Exactly that is why they need to move a larger contract than Killers. One that in two years will require another bump. Moving Palat would be near impossible Moving Point would be easy and return a load of picks and prospects. I am not sure Cirelli is the guy to be the 1C but many think he is. Reguardless if Killer others are moved to sign him Segi and Cernak the same think is going to happen when point needs another contract and raise.

 

[grapes55]

Ah, why move out players who aren't so good to make room for a good player when you can just move the good player and keep the not so good players!

 

[AndreRoy]

Is Cirelli the real deal or a flash in the pan like Yanni Gourde.

Cirelli’s the real deal. Since entering the league he’s been one of the very best (I’m talking top two or three) defensive and PK forwards in the NHL, and he’s also strong (though not elite) offensively. And he’s shown an ability to do this with a variety of linemates.

Gourde is a good player but he was never the driver of offense on his line and most of his scoring came a) from playing with Point, and b) from putting in garbage goals close to the net; once he was moved off Point’s line and into the bottom six his offensive opportunities dried up significantly and he’s not the kind of player who can create his own. He’s still good defensively and if we put him back with Point his scoring would pick up, but he’s not going to do a lot of that on a fourth line with two rookies. Interestingly it was the decision to move Cirelli to 2C, thereby pushing Stammer to the wing and Gourde out of the top six, that had a lot to do with Yanni’s offense drying up this season.

All that said, as much as I like Gourde’s game and motor I always saw his offense as a product of Point and therefore never liked the contract we gave him - especially the full NTC as I saw the upcoming cap crunch with Serg/Cirelli/Cernak coming and knew we’d have to move guys to clear cap space for them. Gourde’s a fine player but he’s a complementary guy, whereas Serg and Cirelli should be seen as part of our young core; hopefully we won’t have to lose one of them because we gave too much money and trade protection to good but non-core players.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

He's going nowhere.

Now if anybody wants Tyler Johnson...

 

[themelkman]

He's going nowhere.

Now if anybody wants Tyler Johnson...

I think for cheap TJ could be a fit on the sharks, as long as we arent on his no trade list

 

[Zwui21]

He's exactly the player the Sabres need.

The Sabres don't need a player, they need a whole f***ing team

 

[AndreRoy]

I think for cheap TJ could be a fit on the sharks, as long as we arent on his no trade list

While we would reluctantly move TJ if necessary to keep Serg and Cirelli, he has a full NTC, has been particularly vocal about how much he loves Tampa and the Lightning organization, and is playing a valuable role in our top six. In short he’s got no reason to waive for a trade unless it’s out of a sense of obligation toward the organization that took a chance on him as an undrafted free agent, and we wouldn’t ask him to unless efforts to move Gourde and/or Killorn failed.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

My numbers are correct there bud assuming simplistic calculations and using a tax calculator. There are assumptions but it's a great resource for establishing a base idea. Too bad you have a stick in your butt.

Income Tax Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I think I'm a typical HF poster, and you're a typical buzzfeed poster.

It's like you can't read the assumptions in that very tax calculator. But it's ok. Reading is hard for you.

 

[HoseEmDown]

You are only considering this bridge contract. Im talking about the next contract after when Cirelli is the 2C and Cernak is playing in the top 4 due to McDonough slipping down with age. Both will bridge at around 4 mil but in two years they are due another raise at the same time Point is the cap will not be there unless you put 8 roster guys that are ELC's or scud 1 mil players. You can not pay Point, Kuch, Stammer, Vasi, Hedman and McD. And afford Cirelli, and others some big dollar guys gotta go and im not talking Killer type contracts. A big 8 to 10 mil guy has got to go or your going to fill the bottom 9 with Paquettes a good heart guy but not enough depth to carry the team.

We are already paying those players you just mentioned plus the likes of Gourde, Johnson, Palat and Killorn. Vasilevskiys raise doesn't kick in till next year but we are carrying just over 3M in dead weight with the Carle buyout and Condon in the minors so it's really just adding 3M next year. In two years when all three are due, which I doubt we bridge Cernak and Cirelli two years knowing Point is up then too, we should be able to have dumped all of Gourde, Palat, Johnson and Killorn. Even if Cirelli is a 2C and Cernak a top 4 D they aren't getting 7M, especially when they are still RFA, maybe on the open market some team would pay that. The only 2C currently making 7M or more is Krejci who was more a 1b when he signed. The only defender who is similar to Cernak in a defense first style making 7+ is Vlasic who was the 1D at the time, Cernak isn't getting that kind of money.

As for replacements we have several kids in Syracuse getting close to ready. To replace Gourde and Killorn in the bottom 6 we have the likes of Joseph who's played well in the league, Volkov is still hit or miss, Katchouk and Fortier have potential. For top 6 Barre-Boulet is coming along well, Raddysh has the tools and Foote is looking strong. So in two years a few of those guys should be able to replace those four at much cheaper prices.