KevFu
Registered User
Look, I don't see the NHL expanding beyond 2 teams anytime within the next couple decades (and would likely take part of a decade just to expand by 2 teams). And if I'm the NHL, I'm going into Seattle/Portland and Southern Ontario (and making them play in the west). I would be doing this for market share in the PNW, and pure money grab in SO (from the team, expansion fee and the Canadian TV deal).
I think adding 2 teams in the pac time zone also adds problems. Think they really want one pac one cen and that opens up Huston which is top 10 already for tv markets. And top 5 for population.
But it's all really speculation on all of are parts, unless someone here is secretly on the BOG. And knows something that none of the rest of us do.
Could Houston be done without Les Alexandar? And didn't he take a bath ($ wise) recently?
As for speculation... of course it is.
Here's my tin-foil hat rationale for expecting the NHL has 36 teams by 2025 or so:
If QC and Markham are going to have venues open by 2016, they're slam dunk markets for the NHL. But they don't open up new territory. No one gets rich but their owners. There were rumors during the lockout of teams #31 and #32, mentioning those two teams.
Then we get Seattle Coyotes talk. Next we hear that the NHL talked to PORTLAND about the Coyotes. If there's no plan for expanding into QC and Markham, why did Seattle and Portland move ahead of them as relocation destinations? (**Geography**)
Next, we hear a rumor that expansion is coming to Seattle and WTF Las Vegas? Why on earth would you take Vegas over Markham or Quebec in a two-team expansion that seemingly closes the door on membership for a long time? (**Geography**)
Now, all of this is easily speculation that doesn't lead anyone to believe the NHL is looking to expand beyond 32 teams, or AT ALL… except that they rammed through realignment with 16 ETZ teams in one conference, and changed to playoff format to something that just seems so ridiculously temporary… right after QC and Markham put shovels in the ground!
If you're just going to go to 32 and close membership, you're not bypassing the best markets for the long-term health of the game, solely because of geography. You get creative with realignment and make as many teams happy as possible.
But all these teams have positives and negatives. And most the negatives are negated if YOU TAKE 'EM ALL.
All those rumors seem designed to spark interest in the NHL in cities so that they: encourage arena construction in Seattle, find a willing owner, and find a sixth market to say "what about us?" and jump in.
If you're going to expand to 36 teams, 4 west and 2 east solves the geography problem. But starting with QC and Markham makes for unbalanced/poor alignment until the other four are ready to go. You line up the other four first, THEN pull the trigger.
And that's why Seattle, Portland and Vegas are in heavy rumors right now. Because once you get them on board, you can turn your sights to Houston.
Alexander is always been a factor, but there's two items at play here:
#1 - He's pushing his chips all in with the Rockets, signing Howard. If the Rockets start raking in money as contenders, maybe he can afford to finally get that NHL team.
#2 - If the Rockets are serious title contenders, maybe Alexander sells the team while they're at an all-time high in value.
(And of course, he can actually do BOTH. Use the Rockets to get the NHL team, sell both teams and the lease and cash out with serious retirement cash).
But Houston -- and Markham -- would probably be teams #35 and #36 in this scenario. With Portland, Seattle, Las Vegas and Quebec being teams #31-#34. You can't take QC until you have the other three western teams lined up, as well, or you'd have people against it for the geography.
And with CBJ, NASH, NYI, PHX signing new leases, and no one really plausible as a relocation candidate for a long time, and TV negotiations around the corner, this is the time for the next big NHL project like this.