Another expansion/relocation article with a twist

[CHRDANHUTCH]

And if they get the new arena, the arena signs a lease with the NHL team and MSG would GTFO because having an AHL team in the #46 DMA in the US when it also has an NHL team there is business suicide.

But it's not a problem. The Wolf Pack could just move to Bridgeport, because when the Islanders move to Brooklyn, they are likely moving the Sound Tigers into Nassau Coliseum.

except you're forgetting Webster Bank Arena, has a 20 + yr lease w/ the Sound Tigers, since the day that franchise was awarded, Kev, it's unlikely Nassau County VMA will ever see pro hockey of any kind once the Islanders head to Barclays, you have both leases in Hartford and Bridgeport to deal with, and you're not going to rip up a lease that was just signed or extended as the Pack were last year until 2016, remember, MSG attempted to bid to put XL under its control but was beaten by Gottenschiender, and the NHL has gotten nowhere w/ him as the landlord in Hartford...

how is it business suicide when the same corporation owns both the parent and/or its affiliates, Kev, where's the reports OR FACTS saying the Wolf*Pack are going to Bridgeport and the ST are heading to Nassau VMA, if the Islanders got rejected by both Suffolk and Nassau Counties to even replace, much less renovate Nassau VMA.

 

[KevFu]

except you're forgetting Webster Bank Arena, has a 20 + yr lease w/ the Sound Tigers, since the day that franchise was awarded, Kev, it's unlikely Nassau County VMA will ever see pro hockey of any kind once the Islanders head to Barclays, you have both leases in Hartford and Bridgeport to deal with, and you're not going to rip up a lease that was just signed or extended as the Pack were last year until 2016, remember, MSG attempted to bid to put XL under its control but was beaten by Gottenschiender, and the NHL has gotten nowhere w/ him as the landlord in Hartford...

how is it business suicide when the same corporation owns both the parent and/or its affiliates, Kev, where's the reports OR FACTS saying the Wolf*Pack are going to Bridgeport and the ST are heading to Nassau VMA, if the Islanders got rejected by both Suffolk and Nassau Counties to even replace, much less renovate Nassau VMA.

Dude, relax. "Could" means "it's possible," not that there's REPORTS OR FACTS. It's been widely speculated on.
(Hilarious demand for REPORTS OR FACTS in the thread about rampant speculation on NHL expansion. There's no FACTS in any of this thread. Enjoy the hearsay and conjecture!)

But it is pretty sound logically:
-- The Islanders lease runs through 2014-15 (two seasons)
-- The Wolf Pack lease runs through 2015-16 (three seasons)
-- The SoundTigers lease runs through 2020-21 (eight seasons)

The speculation is that NVMC would be renovated after the Islanders leave. If that takes a year, it coincides with the Wolf Pack's lease expiring. (And you make it sound like MSG and XL aren't friends). The assumption is that if another AHL franchise were willing to assume the lease, Webster Bank Arena would let the Sound Tigers leave.

As for NVMC getting renovated, Ratner was awarded the development rights. Now that he has the rights to both Barclays AND NVMC, he wants to renovate NVMC and have the Islanders play six home games there. Naturally, because of the history, you don't expect those plans to happen; but with the Islanders bailing, the county might actually do something to get any kind of activity in the facility.

The "Business Suicide" comment was about MSG keeping the Wolf Pack in Hartford if Hartford gets an NHL expansion franchise (Again, in the thread about expansion hearsay and conjecture). The city, the XL operator, and MSG would all want the Wolf Pack to move in that scenario, because XL wouldn't make any money off the venue with a new NHL arena in town.

 

[Tackla]

Yeah come on, these are minor details not worth discussing. No AHL team or junior team or mites team or whatever is going to prevent an NHL franchise from coming to any city. It's the NHL!

 

[voyageur]

While I don't think Anaheim will move, there are some reasons to believe they could.

1. When I look at the Forbes data, which is relevant to the last full regular season, the Ducks earned $30 m in gate receipts, by contrast the "small market" Winnipeg Jets took in $53 m, nearly what Anaheim and Florida earned combined. We know that player salaries are going to rise given the popularity of the sport in the NHL's top 15-20 markets, thus the red ink will rise for Ducks ownership.
There has to be a breaking point.

2. It is interesting that the club's first owners, Disney, have abandoned hockey, and invested in basketball. We know that ownership has sought out a basketball franchise. The assumption would be as a primary tenant, as indicated the hockey operations does not make money for the owners other than filling its arena. If a basketball team were ever acquired, you could be in a situation like Atlanta where the hockey franchise is seen as an impediment in any valuation of its assets (arena included).

3. Let's be honest, the Kings are and will always be #1 in L.A. So Anaheim is not the main attraction, doesn't really serve to grow the game or expand the fan base (as its poor TV ratings indicate) in a meaningful way, that both Seattle and Portland could do for hockey. If these markets are on really on the NHL radar, as we should believe they are, I think realistically one of Anaheim or Phoenix would have to relocate there, and given the arena situation in Phoenix, Anaheim does make more sense.

That's just my take.

For the record I think the next expansion should be Seattle and Milwaukee (beer and hockey=love and marriage). I think Bell shuts out Quebecor and Pelardeau (boardroom politics). Geographically sensible too.

 

[la patineuse]

The Samuelis don't own Honda Center; the City of Anaheim does. The Samuelis own the arena management company, so how is this similar to the Atlanta situation?

I can't see the NBA putting a third team in southern California and the Clippers signed a long-term lease not long ago.

And the only way the Ducks would relocate is if the NHL forced them to or the Samuelis sold the Ducks. The Samuelis are stable, local owners with deep pockets who have heavily invested in the community; I doubt they would willing relocate the team, and what are the chances the NHL forces them to move?

 

[Doan Jidion*]

Let's be honest, the Kings are and will always be #1 in L.A. So Anaheim is not the main attraction, doesn't really serve to grow the game or expand the fan base (as its poor TV ratings indicate) in a meaningful way, that both Seattle and Portland could do for hockey.

While I agree with you that Anaheim does nothing for the league's footprint, they're clearly stable enough that they won't need to go anywhere. They can just keep doing what they're doing. Apparently it's enough.

 

[Grudy0]

While I don't think Anaheim will move, there are some reasons to believe they could.

1. When I look at the Forbes data, which is relevant to the last full regular season, the Ducks earned $30 m in gate receipts, by contrast the "small market" Winnipeg Jets took in $53 m, nearly what Anaheim and Florida earned combined. We know that player salaries are going to rise given the popularity of the sport in the NHL's top 15-20 markets, thus the red ink will rise for Ducks ownership.
There has to be a breaking point.

2. It is interesting that the club's first owners, Disney, have abandoned hockey, and invested in basketball. We know that ownership has sought out a basketball franchise. The assumption would be as a primary tenant, as indicated the hockey operations does not make money for the owners other than filling its arena. If a basketball team were ever acquired, you could be in a situation like Atlanta where the hockey franchise is seen as an impediment in any valuation of its assets (arena included).

3. Let's be honest, the Kings are and will always be #1 in L.A. So Anaheim is not the main attraction, doesn't really serve to grow the game or expand the fan base (as its poor TV ratings indicate) in a meaningful way, that both Seattle and Portland could do for hockey. If these markets are on really on the NHL radar, as we should believe they are, I think realistically one of Anaheim or Phoenix would have to relocate there, and given the arena situation in Phoenix, Anaheim does make more sense.

That's just my take.

For the record I think the next expansion should be Seattle and Milwaukee (beer and hockey=love and marriage). I think Bell shuts out Quebecor and Pelardeau (boardroom politics). Geographically sensible too.

The Samuelis don't own Honda Center; the City of Anaheim does. The Samuelis own the arena management company, so how is this similar to the Atlanta situation?

I can't see the NBA putting a third team in southern California and the Clippers signed a long-term lease not long ago.

And the only way the Ducks would relocate is if the NHL forced them to or the Samuelis sold the Ducks. The Samuelis are stable, local owners with deep pockets who have heavily invested in the community; I doubt they would willing relocate the team, and what are the chances the NHL forces them to move?

Precisely. And I mentioned earlier that the Ducks lease runs for another 10 years.

I do agree that one would have to give pause if the Samueli's were able to obtain an NBA franchise. But that isn't even on the radar screen: the NBA went the hell-or-high-water route and were able to force the Maloof's to sell to a group that would keep the team in Sacramento, keeping the interests in Seattle and Anaheim at bay. There aren't any portable teams in the NBA, either, and expansion doesn't necessarily appear on the horizon. Even then, it appears there may be a preference for teams in Seattle and Vancouver.

 

[superdeluxe]

How is Portland a better option than Hartford? Direct competition with an NBA team and MLS team, and a far inferior hockey culture in Portland.

I think its fairly safe to say that the MLS does not pull dollars away from the big 4. It is a different demo.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Yeah come on, these are minor details not worth discussing. No AHL team or junior team or mites team or whatever is going to prevent an NHL franchise from coming to any city. It's the NHL!

not buying that argument, nor do I buy anyone who even suggests denigrating an AHL Fanbase w/o facts, not speculative opinions as is the case w/ Hartford or Bridgeport....

it's unlikely now that Nassau rejected the Islanders and the Lighthouse project, and leaving LI in 2015 for Barclays that Nassau will ever see pro hockey being a tenant at any level, as Ratner(who developed Barclays) gets the right to redevelop Uniondale/Nassau, very similar to the KC model.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Dude, relax. "Could" means "it's possible," not that there's REPORTS OR FACTS. It's been widely speculated on.
(Hilarious demand for REPORTS OR FACTS in the thread about rampant speculation on NHL expansion. There's no FACTS in any of this thread. Enjoy the hearsay and conjecture!)

But it is pretty sound logically:
-- The Islanders lease runs through 2014-15 (two seasons)
-- The Wolf Pack lease runs through 2015-16 (three seasons)
-- The SoundTigers lease runs through 2020-21 (eight seasons)

The speculation is that NVMC would be renovated after the Islanders leave. If that takes a year, it coincides with the Wolf Pack's lease expiring. (And you make it sound like MSG and XL aren't friends). The assumption is that if another AHL franchise were willing to assume the lease, Webster Bank Arena would let the Sound Tigers leave.

As for NVMC getting renovated, Ratner was awarded the development rights. Now that he has the rights to both Barclays AND NVMC, he wants to renovate NVMC and have the Islanders play six home games there. Naturally, because of the history, you don't expect those plans to happen; but with the Islanders bailing, the county might actually do something to get any kind of activity in the facility.

The "Business Suicide" comment was about MSG keeping the Wolf Pack in Hartford if Hartford gets an NHL expansion franchise (Again, in the thread about expansion hearsay and conjecture). The city, the XL operator, and MSG would all want the Wolf Pack to move in that scenario, because XL wouldn't make any money off the venue with a new NHL arena in town.

not buying that, Kev, if Wang couldn't convince Nassau/Suffolk Counties ie Lighthouse, wht makes you think Ratner could even convince those counties and its voters to approve even a renovation, it's more likely NCVMA/Uniondale goes toward the Sprint Center (KC) route, I believe the Islanders realize/recognize that unless those counties reverse course and are open to renovation, I also don't buy the plan of splitting games as you've suggested, which means a lease has to be extended past 2015, for at least your suggestion to pass, likely events that aren't available @ MSG or Prudential Center, or Barclays, for that matter, is what NCVMA is bidding against when the Islanders leave for Brooklyn, same thing just happened here in Portland, Kev, where a lease was agreed upon in April 2013, and is now in litigation, and the hockey tenant is now in Lewiston, while a 36 yr old facilikty is in the midst of Phase II of a 33 M Renovation, which the AHL approved a split schedule last season, and was prepared to do so currently, until the Trustees changed the terms of said lease, and the hockey tenant wasn't or isn't allowed by State law to ask for revenue from alcohol sales, and Lewiston is considered Portland's territory, so the AHL Approved the Colisee as a suitable arena.

as for Hartford, that lease may expire not in 2016, but 2018, I read the Hartford Courant the day that deal was announced, there's no mention at all of an NHL Team even considering XL, much less any idea of such talks, which is why WSE/Baldwin's marketing agreement was allowed to expire after the name change to the CT Whale, there were rumblings then, that the Whale name was to be sunk and the return of the Wolf*Pack was later confirmed, there's a small segment wishing Karmanos had never left Hartford for Greensboro, then Raleigh, but after that outdoor game @ Rentschler added to the fact, the Hartford fanbase grew to dislike the rebrand to Whale, in season, mind you, kind of alienated the diehard Hartford fans, bc it's rare to see a franchise in a lower league get a prime opportunity to be in an NHL Calibre arena, as MSG did in 1997.

 

[KevFu]

not buying that, Kev, if Wang couldn't convince Nassau/Suffolk Counties ie Lighthouse, wht makes you think Ratner could even convince those counties and its voters to approve even a renovation, it's more likely NCVMA/Uniondale goes toward the Sprint Center (KC) route, I believe the Islanders realize/recognize that unless those counties reverse course and are open to renovation, I also don't buy the plan of splitting games as you've suggested, which means a lease has to be extended past 2015, for at least your suggestion to pass, likely events that aren't available @ MSG or Prudential Center, or Barclays, for that matter, is what NCVMA is bidding against when the Islanders leave for Brooklyn, same thing just happened here in Portland, Kev, where a lease was agreed upon in April 2013, and is now in litigation, and the hockey tenant is now in Lewiston, while a 36 yr old facilikty is in the midst of Phase II of a 33 M Renovation, which the AHL approved a split schedule last season, and was prepared to do so currently, until the Trustees changed the terms of said lease, and the hockey tenant wasn't or isn't allowed by State law to ask for revenue from alcohol sales, and Lewiston is considered Portland's territory, so the AHL Approved the Colisee as a suitable arena.

as for Hartford, that lease may expire not in 2016, but 2018, I read the Hartford Courant the day that deal was announced, there's no mention at all of an NHL Team even considering XL, much less any idea of such talks, which is why WSE/Baldwin's marketing agreement was allowed to expire after the name change to the CT Whale, there were rumblings then, that the Whale name was to be sunk and the return of the Wolf*Pack was later confirmed, there's a small segment wishing Karmanos had never left Hartford for Greensboro, then Raleigh, but after that outdoor game @ Rentschler added to the fact, the Hartford fanbase grew to dislike the rebrand to Whale, in season, mind you, kind of alienated the diehard Hartford fans, bc it's rare to see a franchise in a lower league get a prime opportunity to be in an NHL Calibre arena, as MSG did in 1997.

None of that is "my" suggestion:

The coliseum renovation is Ratner/Mangano suggestions/goals/plans.
The Islanders playing 6 games in NVMC post-renovation is Ratner/Mangano's suggestion/goals/plans.
The Sound Tigers moving (if that comes to fruition) is rampant media speculation: http://www.ctpost.com/sports/article/Sound-Tigers-future-may-be-at-Nassau-Coliseum-4739381.php

The odds of it actually happening aren't the point here. You're getting way too heavy on details. THIS WAS BROUGHT UP IN RESPONSE TO DISCUSSION OF HARTFORD AS AN NHL EXPANSION CITY

Of course there's been "no mention at all of an NHL Team even considering XL, much less any idea of such talks," we're only responding to Tackla's post.

If the City of Hartford and a prospective owner are willing to build a brand new NHL arena and the NHL is willing to give them the team; an AHL team is not going to be the dealbreaker.

You're arguing about the minute details of the fine print for a brain stormed fantasty idea spitballed on a message board. It's totally, 100% moot.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

None of that is "my" suggestion:

The coliseum renovation is Ratner/Mangano suggestions/goals/plans.
The Islanders playing 6 games in NVMC post-renovation is Ratner/Mangano's suggestion/goals/plans.
The Sound Tigers moving (if that comes to fruition) is rampant media speculation: http://www.ctpost.com/sports/article/Sound-Tigers-future-may-be-at-Nassau-Coliseum-4739381.php

The odds of it actually happening aren't the point here. You're getting way too heavy on details. THIS WAS BROUGHT UP IN RESPONSE TO DISCUSSION OF HARTFORD AS AN NHL EXPANSION CITY

Of course there's been "no mention at all of an NHL Team even considering XL, much less any idea of such talks," we're only responding to Tackla's post.

If the City of Hartford and a prospective owner are willing to build a brand new NHL arena and the NHL is willing to give them the team; an AHL team is not going to be the dealbreaker.

You're arguing about the minute details of the fine print for a brain stormed fantasty idea spitballed on a message board. It's totally, 100% moot.

Tell that to those Hartford Fans who have that suggestion, Kev, I already know Hartford won't ever see NHL Hockey return there, I suspect that's why the last year + of the Whale convinced that minority that's fantasy, not reality.

 

[KevFu]

Tell that to those Hartford Fans who have that suggestion, Kev, I already know Hartford won't ever see NHL Hockey return there, I suspect that's why the last year + of the Whale convinced that minority that's fantasy, not reality.

Tell them it's pointless to debate Hartford vs Portland? Already did.

If you KNOW that NHL Hartford 2.0 is never going to happen, why bring up the details on a totally moot point?

 

[gstommylee]

Tell them it's pointless to debate Hartford vs Portland? Already did.

If you KNOW that NHL Hartford 2.0 is never going to happen, why bring up the details on a totally moot point?

Agreed as long as there are other better options Harford 2.0 just won't happen

 

[KevFu]

But as long as we're talking about the AHL implications... if the NHL expands to 36 teams, you'd probably have the AHL expanding to 36 as well.

(Could someone who knows better than me confirm "MLSE would keep the Marlies in Toronto if Markham joined the NHL, right?")

There's been a growing movement for a "western wing" of the AHL; would adding SEA, PORT, LV and HOU increase those chances, or decrease those chances?

I could see the Western teams of the ECHL being "promoted" to the AHL:

San Francisco, Salt Lake, Stockton, Bakersfield, Loveland Colorado, and Idaho, with the LA Kings could swap affiliations for Manchester and Ontario, moving the Reign to the AHL. Maybe someone moves to Reno or Tacoma for nine Western AHL teams.

That would give you:

AHL West: Ontario, Bakersfield, San Fran, Stockton, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Reno/Tacoma, Abbottsford
AHL Central: Rockford, Chicago, Iowa, Milwaukee, Austin, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Grand Rapids and Lake Erie
And divide the other 18 up somehow. Maybe:
AHL North: Albany, Portland ME, Worchester, Springfield MA, St John's, Adirondack, Hartford, Bridgeport, Providence
AHL East: Utica, Hamilton, Toronto, Rochester, Binghamton, Scranton WB, Hershey, Norfolk, Charlotte

 

[Tackla]

Agreed as long as there are other better options Harford 2.0 just won't happen

MOD How do you know? When Anaheim and Columbus joined the NHL everyone who followed the league was floored. Hartford would not elicit that reaction.

 

[Tackla]

not buying that argument, nor do I buy anyone who even suggests denigrating an AHL Fanbase w/o facts, not speculative opinions as is the case w/ Hartford or Bridgeport....

it's unlikely now that Nassau rejected the Islanders and the Lighthouse project, and leaving LI in 2015 for Barclays that Nassau will ever see pro hockey being a tenant at any level, as Ratner(who developed Barclays) gets the right to redevelop Uniondale/Nassau, very similar to the KC model.

Alright I don't understand any of this so I guess I'll just stop trying to respond to it.

 

[Tackla]

I think its fairly safe to say that the MLS does not pull dollars away from the big 4. It is a different demo.

Is this true? From the little I've seen of the MLS, it seems to draw mostly from that coveted 18-34 male demographic that sponsors want. The NHL might might win that battle, but not being the only game in town, sponsors may not pay what the NHL wants and head down the street to soccer.

 

[gstommylee]

Is this true? From the little I've seen of the MLS, it seems to draw mostly from that coveted 18-34 male demographic that sponsors want. The NHL might might win that battle, but not being the only game in town, sponsors may not pay what the NHL wants and head down the street to soccer.

Yes soccer has a different demo then the other leagues do.

MLS goes from spring to fall with playoffs in November. Why are you assuming that NHL prices will be high enough (nevermind for a first year team) for folks to go see soccer when the two leagues play during different times of year with some overlap.

One way to really hurt your team's fanbase is over charge the market in ticket prices than what the market can withstand especially for a new franchise.

 

[Riptide]

Source? Are you Gary Bettman? Are you Batman? How do you know? When Anaheim and Columbus joined the NHL everyone who followed the league was floored. Hartford would not elicit that reaction.

No... because they wouldn't have that chance.

Honestly, I'm not sure why Columbus always gets lumped in with the "southern" teams. It's closer to Canada than 1/2 the league.

 

[KevFu]

Source? Are you Gary Bettman? Are you Batman? How do you know? When Anaheim and Columbus joined the NHL everyone who followed the league was floored. Hartford would not elicit that reaction.

Honestly, the best case for Hartford is the fact that they had a team before -- Minnesota & Winnipeg 2.0 (likely QC 2.0 as well) are showing that the teams that left did so because of the NHL's economic structure long since solved and venue-related issues, not because of the market.

The four expansion teams and the one relocation since the Whale packed up for Carolina have all been (A) markets who had teams before: MIN, ATL, WIN or (B) markets teased with relocation (CBJ, NASH).


That being said, the goal of expansion is to bring in new TV viewers, get a bigger TV contract, bring hockey to an underserved market, open up new territory to grow a new fan base.

Portland, Seattle, Markham, Quebec, Houston and Las Vegas hit on those. Hartford... not so much. They don't bring in many new TV viewers or get a bigger TV contract (#46 DMA), they don't open up new territory to grow a new fan base (a dozen teams surround Hartford). I suppose it's an underserved market, but it's a very small underserved market. (Quebec is similar in this regard, smaller and don't create a ton of new fans... but adding more Canada on Canada TV games would make many teams more money. Sadly, not the case for Hartford).


Look, I'm not saying this to crap all over Hartford. If there was "a spot in the East open," (i.e. had my beloved Islanders moved to Seattle), I'd be saying go to 36 with the Hartford instead of Seattle because bringing back the Whalers is the RIGHT THING TO DO.

I'm on board with Hartford instead of Las Vegas because it's the right thing to do. Presenting Markham with a "Sure, you can have a team, in the Western Conference with little hope of EVER moving to the East" ultimatum is 100% acceptable to me. I just feel there's going to be a ton of NHL owners who'd say that shouldn't be an option.

 

[gstommylee]

Source? Are you Gary Bettman? Are you Batman? How do you know? When Anaheim and Columbus joined the NHL everyone who followed the league was floored. Hartford would not elicit that reaction.

The option of least resistance for expansion is seattle and portland which is current located in an untapped region that you don't have to mess with the aligment other than movie phx to the other western division

QC, TOR2 and hartford has resistance #1 being you would have to force a team to move to the western conference #2 the 14 western conference teams would probably like Seattle and Portland better easier on the traveling.

Looking at the eastern conference only why would NHL pick hartford over QC or TOR2? QC and TOR2 would make way more money for the league.

 

[wildthing202]

Looking at the eastern conference only why would NHL pick hartford over QC or TOR2? QC and TOR2 would make way more money for the league.

You're kidding right? This is the league that kept a perennial $10+ million losing team in the desert for the couple thousand they get in tv ratings. Hartford probably jumps the both of them because it's a US city and being in a US TV market is some how much better than making money.

 

[gstommylee]

You're kidding right? This is the league that kept a perennial $10+ million losing team in the desert for the couple thousand they get in tv ratings. Hartford probably jumps the both of them because it's a US city and being in a US TV market is some how much better than making money.

What has coyotes staying have to do with Hartford getting a team? Coyotes were a relocated team not expansion. Its NHLs right as the team former owner to decide to sell the team to a group that wanted to keep team there. I wish the NBA felt the same about Seattle former NBA team that they unethically allowed to move.

Hartford will not be getting a team not as long as there are better options to the NHL. Seattle portland, quebec city, TOR2 etc.

I'm sorry just cause hartford is a US city doesn't mean its automatically at the top off the list for expansion.

 

[GuelphStormer]

What has coyotes staying have to do with Hartford getting a team? Coyotes were a relocated team not expansion. Its NHLs right as the team former owner to decide to sell the team to a group that wanted to keep team there. I wish the NBA felt the same about Seattle former NBA team that they unethically allowed to move.

Hartford will not be getting a team not as long as there are better options to the NHL. Seattle portland, quebec city, TOR2 etc.

I'm sorry just cause hartford is a US city doesn't mean its automatically at the top off the list for expansion.

and yet that seems to be part of the logic in your argument that seattle AND portland will both get teams before quebec and/or GTA2. that and this silly idea that franchises have to be evenly distributed along geographic lines despite the fact that actual interest isn't.