Player Discussion Andrew Shaw II - Playoff Edition

[Runner77]

Yes it was really bad. Arguably Bergevins worst move and I like Shaw more than most people here. I'm sure he would even admit it was a mistake. You really shouldn't be trading 2 high 2nds like that without waiting to see who falls in your lap. Especially when you are thin on prospects. Maybe we had Debrincat and Girard as first rounders. Using Timmins and the OHL scout as sources, it's obvious we really liked both these guys. Debrincat would likely be our best forward. 2nd best in the worst case. Girard would easily be on our first pair right now. Anyways, this isn't the thread to have this dicussion.

Total mistake by MB that will sting for a long time, while we're seeing Shaw's self-harm bring him into an irreversible decline. Totally agree, if you don't know who is available at your pick, you don't give up the pick unless it's an offer you can't refuse. Making this even worse is that MB should have known better, he was with the Hawks when Shaw was doing his thing.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Debrincat and Girard are literally the only 2 good NHLers of that 2nd round. To just assume we would draft both is absurdly unrealistic.

 

[The Great Weal]

As much as you say it, we didn’t trade Debrincat and Girard for Shaw. We traded 2 2nd round picks for Shaw. If we wanted to trade Shaw for 2 2nds today we most certainly could. These are all facts...

I don't agree that we should be looking at it that way. It's not the 4th or 5th round where you can say "who knows if we would have drafted Jamie Benn with the 5th we traded". These are high 2nds. Every team will have players who they believed were 1st rounders available there.

 

[Andrei79]

Total mistake by MB that will sting for a long time, while we're seeing Shaw's self-harm bring him into an irreversible decline. Totally agree, if you don't know who is available at your pick, you don't give up the pick unless it's an offer you can't refuse. Making this even worse is that MB should have known better, he was with the Hawks when Shaw was doing his thing.

We'll see if it brings him into a decline. He's likely playing the best hockey in his career. The thing with his concussions is we don't know how they were treated. If he was hit within the time frame a concussion is healing because he was okayed too quickly, then he's likely at risk. If not, and he was properly taken out of playing, then we don't really have enough data to say, but its not as clear cut in saying he'll g into a permanent decline. Since we lost this trade, lets hope he continues to do well. At the very worst, he could be a valuable trade chip.

 

[LaP]

The Shaw trade was not that bad. It's rare to get a player as good as Debrincat at that spot in the draft. What I didn't like were the two other things that seemed to go with the trade:

• trading Eller for two lower seconds - he was worth more
• signing Shaw to a contract about $1M too high when his comparables in arbitration would not have been that great

That's not really true. Pretty much every year a player as good as Debrincat is drafted in the 2nd round after the 39th pick.

List of some notable players drafted in the 2nd round after the 39th position by years :

2000: Paul Martin
2001: Cammalleri, Pominville
2002: Trevor Daley, Duncan Keith, Jiri Hudler, Johny Boychuk
2003: Patrice Bergeron, Shea Weber, David Backes
2004: David Krejci, Brandon Dubinsky
2005: Paul Stastny
2006: Jeff Petry, Lucic
2007: Subban, Wayne Simmonds
2008: Derek Stepan
2009: Orlov, Tatar, Silfverberg

I would say in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 there was definitely one player as good as Debrincat drafted between the 39th position and the end of the 2nd round. 2008 is debatable but this is probably because i'm not a fan of Stepan he had a couple fo 50+ points seasons.

I would say out of this list there's at least 11 or 12 players as good as Debrincat in 10 years. So roughly one every year between the 39th position and the end of the 2nd round. There's some very big names in this list btw.

At this position your chance to get a very good player are still significant and probably between 3% to 5%. That's 3% to 5% more than Shaw cause Shaw is not a very good player.

I really don't understand how some people can see this trade as a good one. Shaw is a replaceable player. You don't give a 39th pick for a player like that specially if he's not under contract, his current team don't want to sign him and he's asking for pretty much his UFA value while not being UFA.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I don't agree that we should be looking at it that way. It's not the 4th or 5th round where you can say "who knows if we would have drafted Jamie Benn with the 5th we traded". These are high 2nds. Every team will have players who they believed were 1st rounders available there.

You can’t just cherry pick the only two good players from that round though, especially when you look at our struggles identifying players in the 2nd round.

 

[The Great Weal]

Total mistake by MB that will sting for a long time, while we're seeing Shaw's self-harm bring him into an irreversible decline. Totally agree, if you don't know who is available at your pick, you don't give up the pick unless it's an offer you can't refuse. Making this even worse is that MB should have known better, he was with the Hawks when Shaw was doing his thing.

We were basically doing the Hawks a favour. They needed to trade him to clear cap space. If we offer sheeted Shaw we would have given up next year's 2nd. Offer sheets rarely happen, but we should have definitely been able to get Shaw for 2 later 2nds.

 

[The Great Weal]

You can’t just cherry pick the only two good players from that round though, especially when you look at our struggles identifying players in the 2nd round.

I'm not cherry picking players. Timmins valued Girard a lot and he also had Debrincat really really high. I don't know why we should just ignore that. Even if you want to use the exact picks the Hawks made, Debrincat would be the best or 2nd best forward on this team.

 

[Runner77]

We'll see if it brings him into a decline. He's likely playing the best hockey in his career. The thing with his concussions is we don't know how they were treated. If he was hit within the time frame a concussion is healing because he was okayed too quickly, then he's likely at risk. If not, and he was properly taken out of playing, then we don't really have enough data to say, but its not as clear cut in saying he'll g into a permanent decline. Since we lost this trade, lets hope he continues to do well. At the very worst, he could be a valuable trade chip.

I'll beg to differ. He would have been a trade chip had he not suffered as many head injuries as he has during his time as a Hab.

Problem is, we don't have access to his medical records so we have to go with whatever time he's missed and whatever diagnosis has been offered.

I don't know how risk averse an opposing GM might be and might ask for an offset in the form of a lesser return. He's certainly not durable, has not changed his decision-making and style of play, so the risk of a reoccuring head trauma remains a real probability. I don't know who will want to pay up for that kind of risk.

 

[Runner77]

We were basically doing the Hawks a favour. They needed to trade him to clear cap space. If we offer sheeted Shaw we would have given up next year's 2nd. Offer sheets rarely happen, but we should have definitely been able to get Shaw for 2 later 2nds.

Come to think of it, it could have also been a nudge-nudge, wink-wink deal. For all we know, it may have been a side deal where MB was giving back the favor he got when the Habs got that return for Weise and Fleischman.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I'm not cherry picking players. Timmins valued Girard a lot and he also had Debrincat really really high. I don't know why we should just ignore that. Even if you want to use the exact picks the Hawks made, Debrincat would be the best or 2nd best forward on this team.

I’m sure he valued a tonne of guys. The idea that we would magically identify the only two good players from that round just isn’t realistic. Maybe you could reason that Girard would have been a target- so let’s say we drafted Girard and a bust with those 2 picks. Is that so terrible? But this Debrincat revision based on a tweet is the definition of self harm.

Also it wasn’t two early 2nd picks. They were middle 2nd round picks if anything.

 

[The Great Weal]

Come to think of it, it could have also been a nudge-nudge, wink-wink deal. For all we know, it may have been a side deal where MB was giving back the favor he got when the Habs got that return for Weise and Fleischman.

I think the Hawks getting 2 2nds instead of 1 is more than enough for giving back the favor.

 

[Runner77]

I think the Hawks getting 2 2nds instead of 1 is more than enough for giving back the favor.

MB and Bowman are as thick as thieves. Wouldn't put anything past them.

Anyhow, we're in a KK thread. Moving on.

 

[The Great Weal]

I’m sure he valued a tonne of guys. The idea that we would magically identify the only two good players from that round just isn’t realistic. Maybe you could reason that Girard would have been a target- so let’s say we drafted Girard and a bust with those 2 picks. Is that so terrible? But this Debrincat revision based on a tweet is the definition of self harm.

Also it wasn’t two early 2nd picks. They were middle 2nd round picks if anything.

Yes it is so terrible. Girard would be on the first pair right now. It was actually one early 2nd and a middle 2nd round pick. Not like Girard and Debrincat are the only good players in that round. For current NHLers, there is Hart and Hronek. There are also a bunch of potential guys where we would have to come back and take a look at later on.
Anyways I'm done with this discussion as it's not the right thread for this. Let's move on.

 

[Andrei79]

I'll beg to differ. He would have been a trade chip had he not suffered as many head injuries as he has during his time as a Hab.

Problem is, we don't have access to his medical records so we have to go with whatever time he's missed and whatever diagnosis has been offered.

I don't know how risk averse an opposing GM might be and might ask for an offset in the form of a lesser return. He's certainly not durable, has not changed his decision-making and style of play, so the risk of a reoccuring head trauma remains a real probability. I don't know who will want to pay up for that kind of risk.

I think you're underestimating how GMs view Shaw. If he does string together a period of good health combined with how he's playing right now, he'd surprise people with what he could return. Its a big if, as you say, since part of his game is recklessness. But, to say he's in a decline is false, he's having a career year.

 

[Runner77]

I think you're underestimating how GMs view Shaw. If he does string together a period of good health combined with how he's playing right now, he'd surprise people with what he could return. Its a big if, as you say, since part of his game is recklessness. But, to say he's in a decline is false, he's having a career year.

Well, the recurring head trauma issues are a red flag and ultimately speak for themselves. The player now has significant mileage on account of it and there is no rehabilitation from concussions. Career year, you say? He was on IR for a significant time again this year. So what's the selling angle -- this player does great between major injuries? That's a low return waiting to happen, if at all.

Again, it's a KK thread. I'm moving on. All of these discussions will end up being erased by a mod in the morning. We're all wasting our time here.

 

[Andrei79]

Well, the recurring head trauma issues are a red flag and ultimately speak for themselves. The player now has significant mileage on account of it and there is no rehabilitation from concussions. Career year, you say? He was on IR for a significant time again this year. So what's the selling angle -- this player does great between major injuries? That's a low return waiting to happen, if at all.

Again, it's a KK thread. I'm moving on. All of these discussions will end up being erased by a mod in the morning. We're all wasting our time here.

Posts a lengthy reply -> says he's moving on. Lol. Ok.

Alright, heres my moving on post. Unlike what youre saying, there is indeed rehabilitation from concussion and the long term effects arent clear if the proper precautions and timeline were respected. We know they havent caused an irreversable decline. We know it because we watch games and look at the scoresheet and both are telling the same thing.

That said, players that have carried an injury risk yet kept their level of play have been traded before for fair value. He's a player capable of offense, taking any role or position throughout the lineup while potentially playing any special teams and bringing playoff (cup) winning experience. This holds value for GMs. Likely enough that until his play actually declines, he'll still be a good tradeable asset.

 

[LaP]

A chance of 3 - 5% IS the very definition of RARE.

I don't know. Winning the 649 is rare. 3% to 5% is definitely not in my book. When i used to play World of Warcraft many years ago a 3% to 5% drop rate was easily farmable. A less than 1% drop rate not so much. I still believe Shaw is not worth a 39th pick and i'm positive if we put him on the market despite his good season he wont return a pick this high.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I don't know. Winning the 649 is rare. 3% to 5% is definitely not in my book. When i used to play World of Warcraft many years ago a 3% to 5% drop rate was easily farmable. A less than 1% drop rate not so much. I still believe Shaw is not worth a 39th pick and i'm positive if we put him on the market despite his good season he wont return a pick this high.

OK,but you are ignoring the other side of the odds. If there is a 60% chance a second round draftee plays less than 100 NHL games, then sending two seconds for Shaw is like giving up an 8% chance of a player better than Shaw versus a 36% chance there would have been two busts, a 13% chance of two NHL players and a 43% chance of one NHL player plus one bust. And the NHL players let's say are more likely worse than Shaw than better, since we took the stars out separately.

Viewed that way, the odds are on the side of Shaw, not the picks.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Shaw is quietly having a very, very good season. Good for him

 

[sharks9]

I think Bergevin likes him too much to trade him, but this summer would be a good chance to do it since this is the best he's played in his career.

 

[mariolemieux66]

I think Bergevin likes him too much to trade him, but this summer would be a good chance to do it since this is the best he's played in his career.

This needs to happen.

 

[Tuggy]

First career hat trick and now 33 points in 45 games.

Solid numbers.

Hopefully he can stay healthy.

 

[The Great Weal]

Keep playing like this for the rest of your career, and I wont bitch at all.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

First career hat trick and now 33 points in 45 games.

Solid numbers.

Hopefully he can stay healthy.

Could hit 20 goals while like missing 20 games or so. Pretty good for a plinkity plonkity skronk.