Yep. Even though I think Nilsson legit,
remember what happened with Potter: he looked like a top 4 Dman early on, got signed to a 3 year deal, and then had his play fall off.
Hell, even Scrivens is a good(bad?) example.
The Oiler's are in a good situation here. He's RFA at the end of the year so he can't walk. Plus there's two other goalies in the organization that are highly valued (Brossoit and Talbot, though he is UFA), so Anders hasn't got the a ton of leverage here.
If he puts up 50 games with a ~.920 SV, then I'd give him a duplicate of the Scrivens contract (2.3 for 2 years). Considering he'll be with the team for the entire season, he'll be a little more proven in this situation than Ben was, but still not so in terms of NHL play). If he has even better stats, than a contract similar to Fasth (2.9 over 2 years).
Lack would be another good comparison. (2.75mil for 2 years for 41 games and a .921SV)
Personally, I wouldn't go for 1 year show me contract at a high cap hit. As I see it, there's no good option for the team the following year. Either he bombs but still needs a high qualifying offer; or he puts up another good season and is in line to ask for another raise. Call it the Justin Schultz predicament.
Plus, I think it put's too much pressure on the situation (see Ramo this season). Though that's not to say Lack's doing any better....
Man, goalies are a fickle