Analytics & fancy stats thread

[MonyontheMoney]

Bennett is also generally playing against 3rd or 4th lines, no?

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Bennett is also generally playing against 3rd or 4th lines, no?

I mean, whoever he is facing is pretty random. Here's a list of guys he's faced 12 minutes against:

MARTINOOK, JORDAN
DOAN, SHANE
KANE, PATRICK
HORVAT, BO
BAERTSCHI, SVEN
SEDIN, HENRIK
RIEDER, TOBIAS
SEDIN, DANIEL
GRANLUND, MARKUS
VRBATA, RADIM
LUCIC, MILAN
HANZAL, MARTIN
SLEPYSHEV, ANTON
PERRY, COREY
PERLINI, BRENDAN
MCGINN, JAMIE
KOIVU, MIKKO
BURROWS, ALEX
GRANLUND, MIKAEL
ERIKSSON, LOUI
KASSIAN, ZACK
TOEWS, JONATHAN
SHORE, DEVIN
ZUCKER, JASON
NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN
ANISIMOV, ARTEM
GAUNCE, BRENDAN
CAGGIULA, DRAKE
SCEVIOUR, COLTON
POULIOT, BENOIT
DVORAK, CHRISTIAN
LETESTU, MARK
KOPITAR, ANZE
PERREAULT, MATHIEU
OSHIE, TJ
SUTTER, BRANDON
CHAPUT, MICHAEL
STAFFORD, DREW
MANTHA, ANTHONY

I mean, technically, he is facing the 3rd toughest competition on the Flames, with Backlund facing the toughest and Stajan facing the easiest. But that doesn't mean there exists an imaginary world where he's just avoiding seeing top players.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Nice article by Travis Yost (who I'm not generally a huge fan of) on Gio and Dougie.

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/hamilton-and-giordano-are-the-best-pairing-in-hockey-1.704373

 

[Dack]

Nice article by Travis Yost (who I'm not generally a huge fan of) on Gio and Dougie.

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/hamilton-and-giordano-are-the-best-pairing-in-hockey-1.704373

He's not wrong.

 

[Dertell]

Yost is my favorite writer. Doesn't waste any time getting to the point while doing a great job explaining the context.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Yost is my favorite writer. Doesn't waste any time getting to the point while doing a great job explaining the context.

I think I'm still annoyed with him from when he first started doing articles which were a little heavy on throwing out the advanced stats without explaining some of the more obscure ones. Admittedly he has gotten better.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Yep, they are definitely our 3M pairing this season.

 

[Lunatik]

It's been a very good pairing, but the best in hockey? No, that is likely not the case. Yost always has been and always will be a ****ing hack that bases his opinions solely on fancy stats.

 

[BigRangy]

It's been a very good pairing, but the best in hockey? No, that is likely not the case. Yost always has been and always will be a ****ing hack that bases his opinions solely on fancy stats.

Provide a counter argument then. Find one pairing that has been better this season. One.

I always like to be modest about the Flames to counter some of the more ridiculous posters here but it is a fact that Giordano and Hamilton are the league's best pairing this year. They may not (probably won't) be the best in the future but today it is indisputable.

 

[Volica]

Nice article by Travis Yost (who I'm not generally a huge fan of) on Gio and Dougie.

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/hamilton-and-giordano-are-the-best-pairing-in-hockey-1.704373

They've certainly been special this year, anyone with half a brain would acknowledge that.
Best in the league? Maybe, they're certainly up there.

 

[RedHot]

It's been a very good pairing, but the best in hockey? No, that is likely not the case. Yost always has been and always will be a ****ing hack that bases his opinions solely on fancy stats.

And you discredit anyone that uses them at all. Who's more unreasonable ?

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

How much of a red herring is the addition of Bartkowski or Stone to this team's success? (Full disclosure: sample size is limited)

Player | Off-ice scoring-chance% | On-Ice scoring-chance % | Off-ice expected goals % | On-Ice expected goals %
Bartkowski | 55.51 | 38.57 | 54.90 | 43.90
Stone | 49.94 | 52.43 | 52.86 | 50.74
Kulak | 46.72 | 51.50 | 46.95 | 49.99

It's a pretty big red herring because we are 2015 Sabres bad with him on the ice. Which was the year they tanked for Eichel/McDavid.
For Stone, it's not a red herring. We are actually better with him so far.
And Kulak was just here when the rest of the team sucked.

If we're gonna stick with Bartkowski, we need to get him a partner like Andersson. Otherwise we can't stick with him.

 

[BurnEmUp]

Hopefully next year Bartkowski is just here as the 7th Dman for depth and Kulak gets the trust of the coaching staff to play full time.

 

[BigRangy]

If Bartkowski plays a game for the Flames after the expansion draft Brad needs to be fired.

 

[InfinityIggy]

How much of a red herring is the addition of Bartkowski or Stone to this team's success? (Full disclosure: sample size is limited)

Player | Off-ice scoring-chance% | On-Ice scoring-chance % | Off-ice expected goals % | On-Ice expected goals %
Bartkowski | 55.51 | 38.57 | 54.90 | 43.90
Stone | 49.94 | 52.43 | 52.86 | 50.74
Kulak | 46.72 | 51.50 | 46.95 | 49.99

It's a pretty big red herring because we are 2015 Sabres bad with him on the ice. Which was the year they tanked for Eichel/McDavid.
For Stone, it's not a red herring. We are actually better with him so far.
And Kulak was just here when the rest of the team sucked.

If we're gonna stick with Bartkowski, we need to get him a partner like Andersson. Otherwise we can't stick with him.

So Stone good, Bartkowski bad pretty much. Matches the eye test.

 

[Dertell]

the corsi # are more relevant. They are better predictor of future goals even over a full season at the player level - dmen specifically. Stone ends up looking pretty bad, ~48 CF% SVZA with and ~54% without.

I'm hoping they will look at other not-Alzner directions, but I'm skeptical given people prefer to chase scoring chances over more repeatable events. Shattenkirk would great if he's still available on July 2nd and he doesn't mind coming here. Ideally we find better, cheaper alternatives than Stone because term is important.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

So Stone good, Bartkowski bad pretty much. Matches the eye test.

Not so much "Stone good" as "Stone mediocre", but yeah.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Not so much "Stone good" as "Stone mediocre", but yeah.

But relative to the options, great!

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Shattenkirk will sign with the Rangers, if not the Caps.

 

[Mr Snrub]

Even more impressive that Brodie's had such a step up in play if Stone's playing average at best defensively.

I've said this earlier but I don't think he warrants much more than 3 x 3. Better options can be had if he wants more than that.

 

[Anglesmith]

Not so much "Stone good" as "Stone mediocre", but yeah.

Well, mediocre would be a #3.5D, so for our #4D to be mediocre isn't a bad thing at all.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

the corsi # are more relevant. They are better predictor of future goals even over a full season at the player level - dmen specifically. Stone ends up looking pretty bad, ~48 CF% SVZA with and ~54% without.

I would say the scoring chance numbers are useful as descriptors of past events, the corsi numbers are better predictors of future events.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Well, mediocre would be a #3.5D, so for our #4D to be mediocre isn't a bad thing at all.

Mediocre for a 4th D, not among the entire field of dmen. :p I think he's a passable, but not optimal (or preferred) choice for a #4. Much preferred to Wideman, but that's not saying much,

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Stone does do a great job in the D zone, he really adds a presence down low that we were missing.

 

[Dertell]

Shattenkirk will sign with the Rangers, if not the Caps.

The rangers offered a bag of peanuts before the TDL. I don't think they like him that much.

The caps were already in cap hell before the trade and they had Niskanen and Carlson on the right side. If they want to trade the former to make room, that's totally fine with me.

It's more likely Boston gets him. They (reportedly) showed interest at numerous points, also have cap space, an even bigger need of a RHD and they're in the East. But hey, maybe not.

I would say the scoring chance numbers are useful as descriptors of past events, the corsi numbers are better predictors of future events.

I don't know, maybe? It's clearly a better predictor of how mgmt., fans and coaches view players.