Analytics & fancy stats thread

[Lunatik]

I mean there are people who legitimately don't appreciate how good he is. But on the selling high note: you can't constantly engage in asset management and sell high on players because they're nearing the end of their contracts (unless you're playing a video game). In some cases you need to take the risk and hold onto them. The Flames have their core kids starting their big deals, and they really shouldn't be trading valuable youngish veteran forwards for picks, or guys who won't hit their prime for 2-3 years. They should be trying to become competitive immediately.

I don't disagree at all, I wouldn't consider moving him until the deadline next year and only if we are having trouble re-signing him.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

I don't disagree at all, I wouldn't consider moving him until the deadline next year and only if we are having trouble re-signing him.

This. I hope Treliving locks him up quite quickly after July 1, just so we don't have to worry.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

This. I hope Treliving locks him up quite quickly after July 1, just so we don't have to worry.

Even if it drags out, I'm not that worried. It happened with both Gio and Johnny and they both came back. Backlund has found a home here, he has a coach that he performs great for. The relationship is highly beneficial both ways so I think the Flames need Backlund as much he needs them.

 

[Calculon]

Given Treliving's style, I'd expect a deal concluded somewhere between August and October. Giordano's extension was supposedly priority number one after the start of free agency and he wasn't signed until late August.

I'm sure If Treliving comes back, Backlund will be re-signed sooner than later.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Even if it drags out, I'm not that worried. It happened with both Gio and Johnny and they both came back. Backlund has found a home here, he has a coach that he performs great for. The relationship is highly beneficial both ways so I think the Flames need Backlund as much he needs them.

Yeah but we had to listen to people ******** bricks for several months. Those threads were agonizing.

 

[Dertell]

Yeah but we had to listen to people ******** bricks for several months. Those threads were agonizing.

Bound to happen.

Sometimes it's good to take breaks or not click. If we visit some places long enough this stupid stuffs can get to all of us.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Yeah but we had to listen to people ******** bricks for several months. Those threads were agonizing.

In fairness, the JG negotiations seemed legitimately strained. I still believe he's not particularly happy about how they went, and every time he's asked about the contract and coming back, he specifically states how important it was to be back for his teammates and the fans. Like he's intentionally avoiding saying anything about the team as a whole.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Yeah but we had to listen to people ******** bricks for several months. Those threads were agonizing.

Can't wait for the 'Backlunds camp asking for $7M avg!!!!' thread.

 

[BigRangy]

Can't wait for the 'Backlunds camp asking for $7M avg!!!!' thread.

but actually though, if they drew a line in the sand at 5.5 million I think they could definitely get it from someone, maybe not the Flames though

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Can't wait for the 'Backlunds camp asking for $7M avg!!!!' thread.

Don't you mean 8.5 or even hearing as much as 9M?

 

[Dertell]

Can't wait for the 'Backlunds camp asking for $7M avg!!!!' thread.

"that's a lot of money for some random 3C before Tkachuk and Gulutzan's system came along"

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

A look our four potential playoff opponents' season trend in expected goals percentage at even strength (5v5):

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Interesting to look at for sure. Thanks for sharing OKG.

I think special teams will be incredibly important if we end up facing the Oilers in the first round.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Same chart for Unblocked Shot Attempts percentage:

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Amazing, but unsurprising, how delusional a fanbase can get when they are getting ridiculously hot goaltending.

950+ Minutes Played:

Player|5v5 xGA60|D Rank|5v5 FA60|D Rank
Giordano |2.24|13th|37.03|4th
Sekera | 2.43 | 34th|37.78|10th
Hamilton | 2.44 |35th|39.27|22nd
Brodie | 2.44 | 36th|37.87|11th
Klefbom | 2.64 | 59th|40.67|34th
Larsson | 2.68 | 65th|42.29|44th

Imagine being an Oilers fan and actually thinking your trio is just as good as our trio defensively and the only difference is offense. And that's with one of our trio dragging around a Jokipakka, Engelland, Grossmann, Wideman, and Monahan all season

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Who is producing like:
1st liners or top 25%? (> 1.87 P/60)
2nd liners or top 50%? (> 1.56 P/60)
3rd liners or top 75%? (> 1.26 P/60)

Let's see:

Latest update:

Flames' 5v5 Point Production

Cutoff | Player| P/60
1st Line| Matthew Tkachuk | 2.29
1st Line | Johnny Gaudreau | 1.95
1st Line| Mikael Backlund| 1.90
2nd Line | Sean Monahan | 1.77
2nd Line| Michael Frolik | 1.65
2nd Line | Kris Versteeg | 1.65
3rd Line | Micheal Ferland | 1.51
3rd Line | Matt Stajan | 1.43
3rd Line | Sam Bennett | 1.38
Rest | Garnet Hathaway | 1.07
Rest | Alex Chiasson | 1.05
Rest | Troy Brouwer | 0.89
Rest | Lance Bouma | 0.71
Rest | Freddie Hamilton | 0.30

Well doesn't that look like some balanced scoring? Three guys producing like first liners, three guys producing like 2nd liners (with Ferland gaining on 2nd line territory) and three guys producing like 3rd liners (with Bennett possibly due for a hot streak as he's played his best hockey the last handful of games and Versteeg's mini-slump seems over)

 

[Dertell]

Player|5v5 xGA60|D Rank|5v5 FA60|D Rank
Giordano |2.24|13th|37.03|4th
Sekera | 2.43 | 34th|37.78|10th
Hamilton | 2.44 |35th|39.27|22nd
Brodie | 2.44 | 36th|37.87|11th
Klefbom | 2.64 | 59th|40.67|34th
Larsson | 2.68 | 65th|42.29|44th

the ultimate defensive defenseman. His defensive stats may not be impressive, but he makes up for it by having no offense whatsoever.

Other than that shiny first pass, he's blah.

 

[Mr Snrub]

the ultimate defensive defenseman. His defensive stats may not be impressive, but he makes up for it by having no offense whatsoever.

Other than that shiny first pass, he's blah.

Never forget: Oilers fans actually believe they won the Hall-Larsson swap

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

the ultimate defensive defenseman. His defensive stats may not be impressive, but he makes up for it by having no offense whatsoever.

Other than that shiny first pass, he's blah.

In his defense I think he's better than Michael Stone.

 

[BigRangy]

Never forget: Oilers fans actually believe they won the Hall-Larsson swap

They absolutely did, because Hall is actual trash. Waiving Hall would have made them better, and getting a pretty good d-man back for him is larceny now and on the day of the trade.

 

[Calculon]

They lost the Hall trade on paper but they won it in the lockerroom and on the ice.

Big fan of Larsson; it's an absolute shame the Oilers got him.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

They lost the Hall trade on paper but they won it in the lockerroom and on the ice.

Big fan of Larsson; it's an absolute shame the Oilers got him.

My opinion has been slowly changing on this. At the time Hall absolutely looked like the superior player, but his drop in production, combined with Larsson becoming a little more useful (granted I think he's still a 2nd pairing dman right now, at least) make the trade look pretty even in the long term.

 

[YourAverageFan*]

They absolutely did, because Hall is actual trash. Waiving Hall would have made them better, and getting a pretty good d-man back for him is larceny now and on the day of the trade.

I really hope you're joking.

If not, that might be the worst post I've ever seen.

 

[YourAverageFan*]

My opinion has been slowly changing on this. At the time Hall absolutely looked like the superior player, but his drop in production, combined with Larsson becoming a little more useful (granted I think he's still a 2nd pairing dman right now, at least) make the trade look pretty even in the long term.

What? I absolutely disagree with this and would actually argue that Hall is having the 3rd best season of his career to date.

He's just on a terrible team and is having bad puck luck. His underlying numbers are outstanding

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

So I heard something pretty interesting.

Daymond Langkow was apparently the Backlund of his era. Drove possession. Tough match ups. Defensive stud. Still produced. I always thought he was vastly under-appreciated during his tenure as a Flame.

He got the Monahan/Backstrom treatment. Oh he plays with Gaudreau/Ovechkin/Iginla...